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The argument should be a simple one: 1. The jury hates her, she's has already stated this aloud, remind her of this fact. She makes the perfect patsy for everyone to take to final two except if... 2. Austin remains. He and Liz would take each other at final two. Can she really trust them to throw things to her at this point? Which means if Austin's gone... 3. Liz takes Vanessa to final two because of #1 and they've been allied and she doesn't like John/Steve. John takes her over everyone else because he thinks it's his best shot. Steve takes her also because he could beat her.* 4. If she wins final 3 HOH, she can choose who she wants to take to the end. *Whether they actually follow through with taking her is another matter, but the logic should line up for her.
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Sep 14, 2015 00:27
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So it's gonna be the F4 HoH winner, the F4 veto winner, and the best ally/choice of the F4 veto winner going to F3. Assuming Steve voted out this week, out of nine possible HoH+veto results, four combos result in both Liz and Austin in F3. But all combos have JM to F3. HoH PoV saved. evicted JM. A. L. V JM. L. A. V JM. V. L. A A. L. JM. V A. V. JM. L A. JM. V. L L. A. JM. V L. V. JM. A L. JM. V. A This implies that JM really needs to keep Austin and evict Steve right now. In F4, jm wins 5 comps, is easily saved by Vanessa in her two pov wins, and is probably saved by aus/Liz in their other two pov wins.
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Sep 14, 2015 01:59
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Teek posted:The argument should be a simple one: That's all assuming she only wants to get to F2. I think she believes her best shot of winning is sitting next to Austin, unless she's changed her mind recently.
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Sep 14, 2015 09:21
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LostRook posted:That's all assuming she only wants to get to F2. I think she believes her best shot of winning is sitting next to Austin, unless she's changed her mind recently. I don't know what she believes but if she genuinely thinks that she has a shot against Austin she's crazy. Austin has the jury votes of the twins + Meg/James locked up ironclad and only needs one more, and I think at the very least Johnny will vote for Austin as well.
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Sep 14, 2015 09:37
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I genuinely think she could pull Julia's vote given her ability to basically Jedi mind trick her into whatever and I don't think Vanessa has a read on Ausin's connection to Meg and James. Steve is probably a vote for her, so I'm not sure she wants to sit next to him. As an example of Vanessa's hold on Julia, RHAP did a exit interview kind of thing with Julia and she STILL didn't understand the PoV thing as a play against her. Though looking at the update feed, it may all be moot as it seems that Vanessa has agreed to blindside Austin, which basically is sinking her own game anyway. She claims that she needs to make a big move for the jury and this is it. Which. Dumb? Steve has already admitted to the camera that he will make Vanessa regret it. LostRook fucked around with this message at 10:26 on Sep 14, 2015 |
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Sep 14, 2015 09:43
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Could last night's episode have been worse? Vanessa being a manipulative rear end in a top hat and interrogating everyone AND we had to see Frankie. Ugh. I even knew Frankie would be on and my lip instinctually curled when he barged into the house. At least I can take solace in the fact that his sister is very clearly embarrassed by him.
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Sep 14, 2015 10:58
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MrBuddyLee posted:out of nine possible HoH+veto results, You're forgetting that the HoH can also win the veto.
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Sep 14, 2015 11:26
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Samarium posted:You're forgetting that the HoH can also win the veto. In which case he has to give the power to another person (Liz to Austin or Austin to Liz) effectively making them the PoV winner for this calculation.
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Sep 14, 2015 11:31
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LostRook posted:Though looking at the update feed, it may all be moot as it seems that Vanessa has agreed to blindside Austin, which basically is sinking her own game anyway. She claims that she needs to make a big move for the jury and this is it. Which. Dumb? Austin hardly talked to her after veto which is a big mistake. The fast eviction could bite him hard. Though either way Vanessa's probably not safe. Everyone talks up the jury being mad to her face, but they're afraid it could go the other way and she'll seen as the mastermind of the season.
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Sep 14, 2015 15:34
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Spiky Ooze posted:Austin hardly talked to her after veto which is a big mistake. The fast eviction could bite him hard. Though either way Vanessa's probably not safe. Everyone talks up the jury being mad to her face, but they're afraid it could go the other way and she'll seen as the mastermind of the season. She avoided talking to him, even when he tried. He's going to wreak her in the jury house for a bitter as gently caress jury.
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Sep 14, 2015 15:40
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Are we sure that JMac is voting to keep Steve? To me it seems like he is more leaning towards keeping Austin right now while Steve is planning is f2 speech and Vanessa is in her lair stressing out.
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Sep 14, 2015 15:41
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sbaldrick posted:She avoided talking to him, even when he tried. Well he would have done her the same way if she hadn't won HoH and she would be bitter. Not much way to avoid it when all your peeps get to the end. You kind of want them to somehow be taken out by others, but it's never going to happen like that most of the time. GaussianCopula posted:Are we sure that JMac is voting to keep Steve? I think he wants Steve out but he can't figure out a floater way to make it happen, so then he just falls back to "whatever I don't care, you figure out who goes" with Vanessa. Spiky Ooze fucked around with this message at 16:06 on Sep 14, 2015 |
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Sep 14, 2015 15:50
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Sending Austin to jury this soon is the worst idea for Vanessa. Austin has insane social game, and you are giving him more than a week to poison the jury against you with no way for you manage that. She can't interrogate the jury. She can't cry to make them feel bad. Totally unnecessary risk and horrible jury management on her part if he goes this time. Steve is actually kind of a legit F2 threat because I do not think anyone will truly hate him and he has made moves and won comps.
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Sep 14, 2015 20:18
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Feeds now down for the eviction show filming. Will come back tomorrow night.
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Sep 14, 2015 21:29
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Watching last nights episode, jfc Vanessa is a crazy person
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Sep 14, 2015 22:12
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Professor Shark posted:Watching last nights episode, jfc Vanessa is a crazy person They haven't shown 90 percent of it.
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Sep 14, 2015 22:18
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All four Vanessa HOHs have delivered. This one might be the best with Vanessa blaming Liztin for making too many deals while at the same time having so many deals herself that she forgets which is real.
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Sep 15, 2015 05:29
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Is poor Austin getting knifed tonight? 
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Sep 16, 2015 00:30
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Popero posted:Is poor Austin getting knifed tonight? It wasn't on the feeds so nobody knows yet. Wasn't any production leak of a spoiler either.
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Sep 16, 2015 01:11
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Aw. Rats.
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Sep 16, 2015 01:42
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Austin said it best "You just lost the game, you won't win the jury" He's loving right, because 1) he's going to do loving WORK in the jury house against her and 2) if vanessa wanted to win, she needed to take either Austin or Liz, and sending Austin out means she won't win over Liz at this point. Anyone who continues to compare Vanessa to Derrick is a loving moron because Derrick won his season the moment he evicted Donny, Vanessa has had to stab and cry and flip the gently caress out so many times that I can't even stand it anymore. It was a cute novelty when she did it to save herself, but she was loving hysterical that she sent Austin home while Liz was only crying a little. Her game is so loving stupid and if she gets taken to final 2, then this season was just as blind as last season. Season 16: How did we not see it? Season 17: How did we not send her loving packing in week 3?
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Sep 16, 2015 03:19
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FraudulentEconomics posted:He's loving right, because 1) he's going to do loving WORK in the jury house against her If he tells the whole jury the poker deal she tried to make and how it's likely she's a millionaire... oh man is she screwed.
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Sep 16, 2015 03:34
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That gives Steve and JMac more incentive to bring her to the final three though. It was looking like she was going out in fourth.
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Sep 16, 2015 04:01
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The problem is that Steve and JMac have no idea about it, so they'll probably knock out Vanessa because it's taking out a mastermind which is something good for their resume.
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Sep 16, 2015 04:04
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i was told austin was voted out this morning and he was devestated but that he had gone out in pajamas. i guess shorts/muscle shirt no shoes are pajamas?
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Sep 16, 2015 04:05
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minoru suzuki posted:i was told austin was voted out this morning and he was devestated but that he had gone out in pajamas. i guess shorts/muscle shirt no shoes are pajamas? He was wearing pants. Does Liz know about the Vanessa deal with Austin? This is important.
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Sep 16, 2015 04:10
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The Vanessa/Austin deal was a Vanessa/Liztin deal. The show just made it seem like a Vanessa/Austin deal by showing that handshake with Austin instead of the talk the three of them had an hour earlier agreeing to the deal or when Liz came in after and made the same deal. There were some small differences in that Vanessa was still insisting that Austin needed Liz out and he was still acting ok with it without saying he'd betray her, but Liz knew about the plan to go F3 with Vanessa and throw the first part and she agreed to it. Not to mention that AusTwins had a F4 with Vanessa. And Liz even knew Austin and Vanessa had a F2 even though Austin dismissed it as not really mattering once he and Liz got together. So Vanessa has now scumbagged everyone in the house, which is really dumb. Even if she had ended up stuck in F2 with Austin or Liz at least she could have said she was loyal to her Week 1 alliance to counter the inevitable bitterness of betraying everyone else. But now she's backstabbed the very first person she aligned with and even the Twins she insisted she'd never done anything against. So she has no advocates left in the game. And she did it AFTER betraying Steve and Johnny Mac so she managed to basically screw everyone over this week. A week where she probably would have been best off throwing HOH and taking her chances with POV/the votes. I wasn't that surprised, though. I said way back in Week 1 that Austin was going to be evicted the first time he was in one of those chairs come eviction time. It took way, way, WAY longer than I expected but it still played out that way. Vanessa's definitely not Derrick. She's much more like BB2 Nicole or BB14 Dan (but instead of laughing about being an evil genius she cries and says she's a victim). There's a reason both of those people lose to very bitter juries and Vanessa is probably doomed to the same fate. But like I said, weeks ago she was talking about BB14 Dan to Steve and didn't understand or accept the reasons why the jury was bitter towards Dan. So its not surprising to me that she went and repeated it all. It would be funny if she ended up in F3 with Steve and Liz and basically repeated history. The girl who didn't have a ton of strategy but won a bunch of HOHs and trusted Dan/Vanessa only to have him/her blindside her showmance. The nerd who didn't do much at all early on and was always the odd man out and on the brink of being evicted but could win a jury vote because of how much damage Vanessa/Dan did. I guess Johnny might fit in that spot too. So here's to Liz winning the final POV just to make history repeat itself.
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Sep 16, 2015 04:39
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Feeds finally back. No sign of who won veto yet.
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Sep 16, 2015 05:04
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Its this time of year I always feel free from my obsession because I can't imagine watching hours of an empty house of people doing absolutely nothing just waiting for someone to say something to indicate what's happened. See? Austin was right. POV winner should just wear it all the time for us live feeders. Plus, it pisses people off and creates drama.
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Sep 16, 2015 05:10
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e: vanessa and liz's bags are packed, steve and johnny's aren't. vanessa is practicing her speech. she won veto, is saving herself and evicting tomorrow. STING 64 fucked around with this message at 05:31 on Sep 16, 2015 |
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Sep 16, 2015 05:22
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lol she will get a chance to earn the ultimate scumbag award and evict Liz.
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Sep 16, 2015 05:33
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It would be dumb of her, I think. Then she'd be going to F2 with a Steve/Johnny F2. Logic dictates she votes out Johnny so that Liz or Steve take her to F2. But knowing Vanessa I could see her thinking she could vote out Liz and get all three AusTwin votes.
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Sep 16, 2015 05:37
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Liz is her best bet in final three since Liz will not win an endurance comp, will not likely win the memory/puzzle, and has a 50% chance at best to win the final guessing game. Steve has shown he can dominate a mental challenge, and John has shown himself at least as capable as Vanessa, if not more so in some cases. John has also proven that he is every bit as good at endurance as Vanessa is. Austin was a better choice too, since he has not done too well in anything but purely physical, non-endurance comps.
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Sep 16, 2015 05:48
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So Steve spent quite a while hugging his teddy bear and crying because he apparently threw the veto competition for some reason. I guess Vanessa somehow got him to do it. So Vanessa has veto and it looks like JMac is done for, as she's (finally) caught on that Steve and JMac are a tight pair. Steve spent the night with Liz in the purple room because he didn't want to be alone, and Liz tucked him into bed. So.
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Sep 16, 2015 11:28
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This endgame is ridiculous.
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Sep 16, 2015 12:09
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I have this bad feeling she's planning on taking Steve to Final 2 because she can prey on his social anxiety in the finale.
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Sep 16, 2015 12:28
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Oh God, if she spends the last week bullying him into a neurotic mess it will be awful, and I can totally see it happening.
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Sep 16, 2015 12:40
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sportsgenius86 posted:I have this bad feeling she's planning on taking Steve to Final 2 because she can prey on his social anxiety in the finale. I would laugh so hard if Liz somehow won the final HoH and sent Vanessa home with it.
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Sep 16, 2015 13:21
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I just realized we're going to get a recap episode with Liz narrating 
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Sep 16, 2015 15:11
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Vanessa's only chance at winning is sitting next to Liz at the end given that the Austwins will vote together and more then likely can get the other two people required to vote for either Johnny or Steve (I don't think they would care which one) so basically she screwed herself at the end. She simply doesn't have the numbers unless it's against Liz.
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Sep 16, 2015 16:11
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