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Pass me some kool-aid, I'm pretty parched over here.
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Sep 18, 2015 06:05
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Dandy Kaiser posted:Even then, I'm betting Anderson can still finish as a top-20 back, which would suck for those grabbing him in the 1st, but wouldn't be a disaster. You're hoping that the 6th or 7th RB off the board will be a low end RB2. It would be a total disaster. Cigar Aficionado fucked around with this message at 06:10 on Sep 18, 2015 |
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Sep 18, 2015 06:08
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Cigar Aficionado posted:It would be a total disaster. A total disaster would be Montee Ball and finishing like RB45. As long as he's in the top-20, he's in the RB2 conversation, and as long as you didn't draft like poo poo and have another RB2+, you should have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Obviously, not getting top-tier production out of your first round pick is not a good thing, but as long as you get a productive player, floor is still a valuable asset.
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Sep 18, 2015 06:11
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First round guys who stumble out of the gate like CJ are the worst because you cannot justify putting them on the bench and you keep playing them week after week hoping that 'this week's the one I know it' while foregoing other more productive players because you spent a first rounder on him dammit. It's like Chris Johnson all over again. We can only hope this is an anomaly for the first two weeks, but hopefully he doesn't put you in an 0-2 hole.
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Sep 18, 2015 06:14
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WHAT IF I told you these facts about a running back His quarterback and head coach literally cannot agree on the type of offense to run The best player on the offensive line has been a member of the team for less than a month The rest of the line is garbage Has gotten 20 carries or more four times in his career & in half those games he had fewer than 3 YPC There were preseason reports of a "1A/1B" situation with this RB This running back had 12 carries for 29 yards in the first game of the season and got worse from there in his second GET HYPE I always pegged CJA in the ~RB15-20 range and forgive me for being gloaty but so far so good  Edit: his "backup" has outproduced him on the ground in both games so far this season Spoeank fucked around with this message at 06:25 on Sep 18, 2015 |
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Sep 18, 2015 06:15
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Miko posted:First round guys who stumble out of the gate like CJ are the worst because you cannot justify putting them on the bench and you keep playing them week after week hoping that 'this week's the one I know it' while foregoing other more productive players because you spent a first rounder on him dammit. If he sucks after Week 4, I would bench him
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Sep 18, 2015 06:15
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Doug Martin for CJ Anderson, who says no?
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Sep 18, 2015 06:20
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Keep Doug, he's carrying the rock for the most part. Sims and Rainey (?) won't be muscling that job from him anytime soon and Winston's gotta handoff to keep him from doing too much. Also he scored 4 TDs once.
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Sep 18, 2015 06:23
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Spoeank posted:I always pegged CJA in the ~RB15-20 range and forgive me for being gloaty but so far so good Seems like a non-zero chance, and maybe even the most likely scenario from here, but I maintain that if you managed to get him in the early-to-mid second and/or you drafted well otherwise, you should still have a decent team and at least get some kind of bye week/flex production out of him. I still maintain that his ceiling is high enough that he's worrk keeping/buying low and waiting that out.
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Sep 18, 2015 06:23
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Spoeank posted:WHAT IF I told you these facts about a running back He's averaging 2.3 YPC so far this year (24 carries), and has been outplayed by Hillman (3.4 YPC), who's getting the goal line looks and almost as many carries (21). He's also a 5'8 undrafted guy out of a community college.
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Sep 18, 2015 06:25
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^^^ The undrafted pedigree thing I don't really agree with, a la Reggie Bush vs Arian Foster and RG3 vs Romo per se. It's team and opportunity to perform that's huge. The opportunity cost for first and second rounders is way bigger though. These are the guys that are supposed to be anchors to your 'decent' team. It is also interesting to note that this hurts you much less if a majority of the first round picks bust out, making the overall quality of the league rosters lower. I whiffed on Crowell, but the other 8th rounders I missed out on weren't a huge loss.
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Sep 18, 2015 06:31
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Miko posted:The opportunity cost for first and second rounders is way bigger though. These are the guys that are supposed to be anchors to your 'decent' team. It is also interesting to note that this hurts you much less if a majority of the first round picks bust out, making the overall quality of the league rosters lower. I don't disagree with this, but I still think that a useful player is a useful player. I got LVB and Brown in the 3rd and 2nd last year. If I had drafted a Jimmy Graham or Brandon Marshall in the 1st round for whatever reason, I still would've been fine if I didn't run my team like a jackass.
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Sep 18, 2015 06:36
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Dandy Kaiser posted:Seems like a non-zero chance, and maybe even the most likely scenario from here, but I maintain that if you managed to get him in the early-to-mid second and/or you drafted well otherwise, you should still have a decent team and at least get some kind of bye week/flex production out of him. I still maintain that his ceiling is high enough that he's worrk keeping/buying low and waiting that out. You're backpedaling a bit considering you just made a post telling everyone to run and immediately try and trade for the guy from his owner. A guy who might eventually become a bye week/flex fill-in if he randomly starts playing better and his O line magically stops sucking and his team figures out a cohesive offensive strategy isn't the kind of player you go out of your way to get.
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Sep 18, 2015 06:36
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VDay posted:You're backpedaling a bit considering you just made a post telling everyone to run and immediately try and trade for the guy from his owner. A guy who might eventually become a bye week/flex fill-in if he randomly starts playing better and his O line magically stops sucking and his team figures out a cohesive offensive strategy isn't the kind of player you go out of your way to get. It's really just bet hedging. I honestly believe that's his floor and I think that the risk is probably low enough with his owners panicking that it would be a fairly shrewd gambit. Honestly, I probably would trade Martin for Anderson if I had him as an RB3 (Or had a high-end RB2 and some pretty good depth). I honestly believe that if things don't shake right, it's probably a lateral move, but I can't imagine Martin's ceiling is higher than Anderson's should what I'm predicting come to pass. It's a good gamble and knowing how and when to assume risk is how you win at fantasy football. e: I'm literally going out right now in every league I'm in and packaging my RB3/RB2(if I have a legit RB1) and my WR3/4/5 (depending on starting rosters and if you could convince him to kick back a bench WR or there's a decent guy on the wire) for Anderson and hoping his owner is looking to cut and run for whatever he can get. Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 06:46 on Sep 18, 2015 |
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Sep 18, 2015 06:38
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Miko posted:^^^ The undrafted pedigree thing I don't really agree with, a la Reggie Bush vs Arian Foster and RG3 vs Romo per se. It's team and opportunity to perform that's huge. Arian Foster is 6'1 and went to a real school and was a real pro prospect. He was also arrested during college (serious character concerns), had a bad senior season, and went to the combine hurt and put up bad numbers. He had a lot of things break the wrong way for him in college to prevent him from being drafted, his situation is not comparable to Anderson's. 5'8 RBs are almost never bellcows, let alone averagely athletic undrafted ones. And getting 4th/5th round production from your first round pick makes your chances of having a decent team pretty slim. That's if Anderson can reach those 4th/5th round heights. Right now he's unplayable. Cigar Aficionado fucked around with this message at 06:43 on Sep 18, 2015 |
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Sep 18, 2015 06:41
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Cigar Aficionado posted:5'8 RBs are almost never bellcows, let alone averagely athletic undrafted ones. 
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Sep 18, 2015 06:54
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Dandy Kaiser posted:Seems like a non-zero chance, and maybe even the most likely scenario from here, but I maintain that if you managed to get him in the early-to-mid second and/or you drafted well otherwise, you should still have a decent team and at least get some kind of bye week/flex production out of him. I still maintain that his ceiling is high enough that he's worrk keeping/buying low and waiting that out. Well yeah, in this scenario where the guy Fantasy Pros had going 8th overall fell to you somewhere in the teens, you'll probably be fine because you had a real 1st round pick.
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Sep 18, 2015 06:55
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Cigar Aficionado posted:Arian Foster is 6'1 and went to a real school and was a real pro prospect. He was also arrested during college (serious character concerns), had a bad senior season, and went to the combine hurt and put up bad numbers. He had a lot of things break the wrong way for him in college to prevent him from being drafted, his situation is not comparable to Anderson's. 5'8 RBs are almost never bellcows, let alone averagely athletic undrafted ones. The average height/weight of an NFL RB is 5'11/215 had have been steadily falling/rising since the 70s. Not to mention that, though CJA is 3" shorter than average, he's still almost 15 lbs. heavier thus, when combined with his over skills (speed, cutting, finding holes, all the things that make a running back good, etc.) he's just as hard to bring down as a guy who's 5'10-11, maybe even harder considering the low center of gravity. You can say what yuo want of the production so far, but I don't buy this at all.
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Sep 18, 2015 06:56
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District Selectman posted:Well yeah, in this scenario where the guy Fantasy Pros had going 8th overall fell to you somewhere in the teens, you'll probably be fine because you had a real 1st round pick. Anyone who took him that early is bad at this game tbh. He was going at about the turn in every draft I was in, and he was completely off my personal draft board unless he was there somewhere after pick 15. e: I had a shot at him at 14 in a 12-man league, but I went with Cobb, bookended by Julio and Miller, instead. If Cobb wasn't there, I probably would've taken him, and then gotten Cooks/Hopkins in the 3rd, and I wouldn't really feel all that bad about my team, especially if I had grabbed an Ivory/Abdullah/Hyde in 5-7, which is also totally possible. Then again, the RB I would've wanted there would have been Hill, and I would've picked him over both guys had he been there, but I've always had Hill ranked over Anderson so that's really beside the point. Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 07:05 on Sep 18, 2015 |
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Sep 18, 2015 06:59
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Spit balling numbers but there were more than a dozen RBs, a bunch of WRs, a TE and 2 QBs I wanted before CJA. Unless he fell in my lap in late round 3 I wasn't touching him. He never did. I own no CJA. I am very happy. I don't want a round 1-2 pick to have a maybe usable when a chunk of the league isn't playing value but maybe I'm crazy.
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Sep 18, 2015 07:02
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Real talk, I didn't want CJA because of Montee Ball flashbacks last year. And with Peyton's eroding skills and OL, he was the biggest ? in the first round for me. So I went to a different crowded backfield to pick up Randle in the later rounds 
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Sep 18, 2015 07:04
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Miko posted:And with Peyton's eroding skills and OL, he was the biggest ? in the first round for me. These were reasons why he wasn't a 1st round pick, but I really didn't have a problem with him in the mid-2nd and actually actively found myself rooting for him to fall a few times.
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Sep 18, 2015 07:06
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If we really want to play the "I told you so in pre-season" game, I hope all of the Kelce owners enjoyed the preview of 8-10 of the next 14 weeks and the 4/60-and-a-prayer-for-TD line you tied yourself to the 5th round instead of taking anything but a TE.
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Sep 18, 2015 07:11
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Do you except Gronk still?
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Sep 18, 2015 07:12
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Kelce in the 5th is going to return a much, much higher ROI than CJA in the second (and already has)
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Sep 18, 2015 07:15
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Spoeank posted:Kelce in the 5th is going to return a much, much higher ROI than CJA in the second (and already has) I didn't really mean to equate them, I just need another opportunity to tell everyone that TEs suck and don't draft them (except Gronk at like 2.4+)
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Sep 18, 2015 07:18
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The last Beersheet had CJ Anderson at $50 auction value in 12-man standard 1ppr leagues, behind six other RBs.The same sheet had zero QBs and only four WRs above $50, with a fifth WR (Julio) tied with CJ at $50. That would put CJ at 11th or 12th, which is first round at around the turn in a typical 12-team 1ppr league. Beersheets are based on consensus ADP/auction values. I think if you followed Beersheets and spent a full quarter of your auction budget on him, or picked him up at the end of the 1st/beginning of the 2nd round, you can legitimately be very worried about your season.
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Sep 18, 2015 07:19
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What sort of WR could I am for if I offered the following up in a trade? Abdullah+Boldin Andre Johnson+Abdullah Ivory+Boldin
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Sep 18, 2015 07:25
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Consensus is an average, which is a number made up by probably more dumb decisions that correct ones. I really don't remember there being a strong "Go get CJA y'all camp" (There may have been, I just don't remember) If you really couldn't separate a bunch of numbers from the risk inherit enough to go "Yeah, I can safely fade him for 3-5 picks before taking a shot" I really don't know what to tell you. I've been pretty much of the opinion from the jump that Anderson before pick ~15 isn't really a great pick. If you could've gotten him with Julio/Dez/Brown at 1.7-8 and 2.5-6, that's really not a bad haul if you knew what you were doing in rounds 3-5 or 6 (Obviously hindsight being what it is, we know Dez and CJA would be a disaster, but a fully healthy Dez right now would be a force, and there's really no use in trying to predict freak injuries) I love Beersheets as much as the next guy, and I love the work he puts in, but no cheat sheet should be gospel; if you're using ADP as anything more than a guideline to try to predict trends, you're not doing it right. Teemu Pokemon fucked around with this message at 07:27 on Sep 18, 2015 |
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Sep 18, 2015 07:25
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In a non-PPR with no flex where I have Ivory, Miller, and Abdullah and have already lost Dez; I'm seriously considering shipping off Foster and Andre Johnson for Anderson and Hilton and seeing if the guy bites.
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Sep 18, 2015 07:38
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a shameful boehner posted:I'm amazed nobody in my league scooped Tate on waivers, so here's my lineup going forward: What the hell kind of league has rivers a FA? He's one of the best 5 QBs, and I'd play him over Roethlisberger, at least until Steelers get some WRs back.
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Sep 18, 2015 07:54
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wooger posted:What the hell kind of league has rivers a FA? He's one of the best 5 QBs, and I'd play him over Roethlisberger, at least until Steelers get some WRs back. What the hell kind of league has Rivers as a Top 5 QB?
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Sep 18, 2015 09:08
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These are my worst players: Should I drop anyone to pick up any of the following available FAs?   Standard scoring 0 ppr dynasty league Thelonius Van Funk fucked around with this message at 10:00 on Sep 18, 2015 |
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Sep 18, 2015 09:45
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Could you maybe make those screenshots a bit bigger? It's hard to make out the players names..
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Sep 18, 2015 09:55
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Drop Cassel and pick up Reece.
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Sep 18, 2015 10:06
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xcore posted:What sort of WR could I am for if I offered the following up in a trade? Before the week 1 games played, i was able to trade Andre Ellington + Nelson Aghalor for Ameer Abdullah + Keenan Allen. Of course this was before any games were played and it was mostly me trading Ellington for Allen essentially. Now with Abdullah doing pretty well in the 1st week, you could probably find someone to sell him high on, but i'd keep him unless you're super stacked at RB. Possibly try for Allen (probably harder now after his blow up) or possibly start around Maclin? I'm thinking about picking up the Denver Def for the next few weeks since they have a really easy schedule against bottom tier teams til their bye. But I currently have St. Louis and i'd rather not drop them, so should i roster 2 DEF's for a few weeks or just stick with STL? VietCampo fucked around with this message at 12:59 on Sep 18, 2015 |
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Sep 18, 2015 12:48
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0.5 PPR, someone just dropped Desean Jackson. I know he's banged up for a while but drop Golden Tate for him for bye week hell? I also have A.Brown/J.Matthews/E.Decker/M.Bryant
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Sep 18, 2015 13:01
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Drafted CJA at #9, have experienced intense remorse, but benched him this week because I'm no romantic. I mean sure I benched him for Bishop loving Sankey so the chances of a truly happy ending remain slim, but hey.
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Sep 18, 2015 13:01
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Dandy Kaiser posted:Anyone who took him that early is bad at this game tbh. He was going at about the turn in every draft I was in, and he was completely off my personal draft board unless he was there somewhere after pick 15. Oh I was certainly advocating for him in the 1st. It was my "CJA/Julio" half-ppr start that I was pushing from anywhere past the #8 spot. I think a little humility is in order from those of us who expected he'd be a stud (which, to be fair, was most of the fantasy community). I certainly didn't expect that Forte would be the guy to take there instead. It's fantasy football - most people are wrong about a lot of things. CJA looked like a good prospect. He was like rb6 or something as a starter at the end of last season, so we already knew he could carry a workhorse load and could run behind a bad O-line, and the only changes to his situation were the addition of Kelce, a new coach that was going to run the ball more, and no more Ball. But it's looking like the most important change here was "Peyton is one more year older", because that seems to be mattering more than everything else. If he keeps looking like the Peyton of the first game and a half this season, CJA is going to suck. There's a distinct possibility that he's a complete bust, and the value of CJA/Ronnie is going to be comparable to a JStew/DWill timeshare. But I also think that throwing in the towel on him is a bit premature. I don't think we've learned quite enough about this offense to firmly predict that CJA and Ronnie will continue to be bad after they start facing defenses that aren't quite as good. Like, people were saying almost identical things last year about two players: Montee Ball and Eddie Lacy. At this point, I don't think we can tell which type if season he'll end up having. In case anybody forgot, people were worked into a lather that Lacy was bad and was in a timeshare even if he wasn't, and to be honest, it did look worrying: Week 1: Lacy 12 for 34, Starks 7 for 37 (Seattle) Week 2: Lacy 13 for 43 (Jets) Week 3: Lacy 11 for 36, Starks 8 for 38 (Detroit) And then they started facing more reasonable defenses, and Lacy was fine. Folks that bought low on Lacy won championships. But of course, folks who bought low on Ball probably didn't make the playoffs. Bottom line: I'm not selling CJA, I'm certainly not going out to buy CJA, and I'm not starting him OR Ronnie until we get a bigger sample size on Peyton and see how they do against defenses that aren't as good as these two. Just my two cents.
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Sep 18, 2015 13:09
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How's this for a trade (I need WR help, and Andre Johnson looked terrible, but then - so did Manning last Sunday): Send LeSean McCoy, Buf RB Send Andre Johnson, Ind WR Receive T.J. Yeldon, Jac RB Receive John Brown, Ari WR
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Sep 18, 2015 13:33
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