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Necc0 posted:The Republican primary market has remained really stable despite different candidates moving around in the polls but I guess most of the volatility in the Biden market is being driven by it's relatively short deadline. The republican primary market is giving Trump and Kasich equal odds now, and Jeb is still considered the most likely to win. I just noticed that there's a section for markets that are having the the largest swings in prices, how long has that been there?
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Sep 20, 2015 00:46
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Wanamingo posted:The republican primary market is giving Trump and Kasich equal odds now, and Jeb is still considered the most likely to win. Kasich is like the new Ron Paul for prediction markets. I bought No on him in the 79-81 cent range and the market refused to budge for months. Looks like he's still inflated by about a factor of two or three over where he could reasonably be placed. The Yes inflation in that market is somehow more ridiculous than ever. People really hate pressing the No button, it seems. I think Jeb on top by a couple points is probably reasonable, though.
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Sep 20, 2015 00:55
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Wanamingo posted:The republican primary market is giving Trump and Kasich equal odds now, and Jeb is still considered the most likely to win. quote:I just noticed that there's a section for markets that are having the the largest swings in prices, how long has that been there?
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Sep 20, 2015 01:38
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Vox Nihili posted:The Yes inflation in that market is somehow more ridiculous than ever. People really hate pressing the No button, it seems. edit: Right before the debate it was at an insane 7%. I should have dumped a lot more money in then than I did.
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Sep 20, 2015 01:43
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:43 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 20, 2015 06:44
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Got out of Kasich when I thought he peaked (after that 1st debate). Made a decent profit. I bought yes back before he announced. Rolled everything into Biden Yes a while back and am looking forward to a nice mid-October cash out. Watch his interview with Colbert and tell me that Biden is a man who thinks he can handle a year-plus long campaign. He wants to be president, but right now, he doesn't want to run for president. And I don't blame him. Believe me, I'd be happy as poo poo if Biden ran (aside from the money I'd lose), especially because I might have a job result from that, but he's not gonna, unless something really changes with Hillary.
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Sep 20, 2015 07:32
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Yoshifan823 posted:Watch his interview with Colbert and tell me that Biden is a man who thinks he can handle a year-plus long campaign. He wants to be president, but right now, he doesn't want to run for president. And I don't blame him. It's too bad, the "my dead gay son told me he wanted me to be president" narrative will go to waste.
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Sep 20, 2015 07:51
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Now's the time to buy up Biden Nos by the way. Even if you're wrong, it means Bernie will probably be our next president and you'll get money from his good economic policies. Win/win.
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Sep 20, 2015 07:54
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:You have to be willfully ignoring some pretty blatant loving evidence to go with No at this point. Care to share?
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Sep 20, 2015 16:17
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:43 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 20, 2015 16:18
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Nothing indicates "yes" either - if he was going to enter, why is he waiting this long?
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Sep 20, 2015 18:10
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And nothing has indicated yes, just the usual blather thAt leads up to any announcement, yes or no. Of course the media plays it as yes because that's more interesting, but all their evidence is the usual concluding things based on what you already assume is true stuff. I think it's 50 50 at this point and that's why I bought thirty no shares at 33 cents, just because I think no is about 17 cents cheaper than it should be.
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Sep 20, 2015 18:12
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It's only 80 cents to buy that Walker will not be the next to drop out (Yes is selling for 38). If that price goes down some more it'd be a steal, no way Kochs give up on him so early.
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Sep 20, 2015 19:26
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fronz posted:It's only 80 cents to buy that Walker will not be the next to drop out (Yes is selling for 38). If that price goes down some more it'd be a steal, no way Kochs give up on him so early. There's a Wisconsin debate in November. Someone else will drop out before that; Walker NO is a sure bet. I just got back in on Biden NO 
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Sep 20, 2015 19:33
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pathetic little tramp posted:And nothing has indicated yes, just the usual blather thAt leads up to any announcement, yes or no. Of course the media plays it as yes because that's more interesting, but all their evidence is the usual concluding things based on what you already assume is true stuff. I think it's 50 50 at this point and that's why I bought thirty no shares at 33 cents, just because I think no is about 17 cents cheaper than it should be. I don't know that I'd say it's 50/50, but it's definitely not a sold yes or no. Biden absolutely, 100% wants to run and be president. However every report is that the death of his son has been hard as poo poo on him. He's repeated several times to different audiences that he's not sure that he's got the emotional strength to run right now. Also the field is really not set up for Joe Biden to jump in and have a good chance, especially not this late in the game. So it's desire vs reason, and while we do know that Biden has a whole lot of desire, there is still not that much showing he's disregarding reason. Dangling the possibility out there keeps the door open longer for him to think about it, puts pressure on Hillary to get out and in the media more, and puts further pressure on other potential not-Cintons to stay out of the race. I'd say it's 65-35 no.
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Sep 20, 2015 20:29
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I can't believe how much the Republican field has flattened in the past week.
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Sep 20, 2015 20:49
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:43 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 20, 2015 20:49
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:lol okay man he's got bundlers coming on board, a support infrastructure has been forming for months, a super pac, an advisor overheard talking strategy and timing of the announcement, the WH is giving the world the ol' wink-wink we don't have an endorsement BUT, Biden is traveling to key states testing out stump speeches, his wife came out and clarified that she's 100% behind a run, and he went on national tv to talk about a run, but no way is he running. I feel like if he were going to run he would have announced when he went on Colbert. Romney was doing the same thing as well and decided to duck out. Guess we'll find out in a few weeks!
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Sep 20, 2015 21:03
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Jewel Repetition posted:Now's the time to buy up Biden Nos by the way. Even if you're wrong, it means Bernie will probably be our next president and you'll get money from his good economic policies. Win/win. You really have been in the echo chamber too long if you think bernie is "probably" going to be the next president.
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Sep 20, 2015 21:32
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:You really have been in the echo chamber too long if you think bernie is "probably" going to be the next president. If Hillary's campaign deteriorates enough for Biden to step in, I think Bernie has a good chance. That's not a fringe view, even Nate Silver said it.
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Sep 20, 2015 22:10
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Jewel Repetition posted:If Hillary's campaign deteriorates enough for Biden to step in, I think Bernie has a good chance. That's not a fringe view, even Nate Silver said it. This is being awfully generous with 538's comments about Bernie. Nate said in a single post on his site, which was a transcription from a Slack chat, that if those conditions are met, as unlikely as they are, then Bernie has a non-zero chance of getting the nom. More often repeated on the site thus far is the notion that if Hillary's campaign somehow completely crumbles then the party is far more likely to nominate a different establishment candidate than to let an outsider wrangle away control of the party.
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Sep 21, 2015 01:57
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Biden NO down to .32, free money imo
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Sep 21, 2015 02:13
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Aliquid posted:I just got back in on Biden NO Same here. At 30 cents each, I'd be a fool NOT to buy them 
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Sep 21, 2015 06:51
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Wanamingo posted:Same here. At 30 cents each, I'd be a fool NOT to buy them Price is already jumping back into the 40c range. Wish I had been online when No fell to 20-some cents, missed out on a deal.
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Sep 21, 2015 16:45
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This market is an absolute roller-coaster 
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Sep 21, 2015 16:49
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Scott Walker is flying up the "next to drop out" list amid reports that apparently republican insiders are saying it's time to jettison the dead weight. Stanley Hubbard, one of his bigger donors is telling people he's off the Walker train too. I wish there were some kind of market to bet on David Cameron getting hosed up because Jesus Christ he's literally a pigfucker, Putin could be the next PM at this point. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 17:19 on Sep 21, 2015 |
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Sep 21, 2015 17:14
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yes on the october shutdown is zooming up. when's a good time to sell, you think?
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Sep 21, 2015 17:22
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the government better not loving shut down i swear to god i still don't think it'll happen; if you're on the YES side i'd dump after it goes above .55 or .60
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Sep 21, 2015 17:27
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:44 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 21, 2015 17:29
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Got a nice ride out of my Biden YES so I flipped it into Shutdown YES at 52 cents. This thing is going down the wire, so I figure the longer I hold on, the better. I plan on cashing out on that final afternoon at whatever I can get for my shares. i'd cash out the day before; things tend to get leaked and nothing ever actually comes down to the wire on CSPAN
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Sep 21, 2015 17:31
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:44 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 21, 2015 17:34
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Yeah I'm feeling like a bit of an idiot for just selling at 45.
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Sep 21, 2015 17:34
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:44 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 21, 2015 17:45
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:You shouldn't feel bad about getting out early (unless you lost money by doing so). Don't fall into the trap of blindly chasing the max return; it's probably the easiest way to get burned. Yep. You can always hold a couple shares to see if you can push your luck, but buying and selling on the swing is definitely the way to go.
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Sep 21, 2015 18:19
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Got a nice ride out of my Biden YES so I flipped it into Shutdown YES at 52 cents. This thing is going down the wire, so I figure the longer I hold on, the better. I plan on cashing out on that final afternoon at whatever I can get for my shares. Just be careful because there are a lot of other traders doing this same strategy.
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Sep 21, 2015 18:21
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:44 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 21, 2015 18:31
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Yeah I was tempted at buying 'No' but there's way too many wildcards involved here for me to be sure either way.
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Sep 21, 2015 18:37
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:44 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 21, 2015 18:43
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Biden NO is climbing, I think I'm gonna sidle on out of that market with a pretty profit instead of trusting my gut that he's not running.
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Sep 21, 2015 18:50
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pathetic little tramp posted:Biden NO is climbing, I think I'm gonna sidle on out of that market with a pretty profit instead of trusting my gut that he's not running. thanks for the heads up, i'm starting to dump at .45 and with that trade, i'm now in the black since i signed up lol
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Sep 21, 2015 18:54
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