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Necc0 posted:Seriously it was filed over a month ago I don't think there's anything to it Yeah, but on the other hand, Bobby Jindal.
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Sep 22, 2015 04:46
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No the Jindal-scandal was technically meeting the requirements because he actually did suspend his campaign. The only thing was no one even noticed because lol Jindal. This is a fake submission. It'd be like saying someone pretended to be Jindal and said they were suspending the campaign and PredictIt closed the market.
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Sep 22, 2015 04:49
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So is the consensus here that it's safe to hold NOs for now? Or should I panic sell at a 10c/share loss?
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Sep 22, 2015 04:55
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Necc0 posted:No the Jindal-scandal was technically meeting the requirements because he actually did suspend his campaign. The only thing was no one even noticed because lol Jindal. This is a fake submission. It'd be like saying someone pretended to be Jindal and said they were suspending the campaign and PredictIt closed the market. Actually in the thread for that contract, a Predict staffer said that they were aware of the claim but couldn't find anything more authoritative than a third-hand report of the statement. The actual interview footage of him saying so wasn't identified until weeks later because lol Jindal. Aliquid posted:That's exactly what's happening. I sold all my,no shares but two at .45, then refreshed and 100 more .45 shares were available so I got out completely.  I was wondering why I kept being able to buy no shares for 40 and immediately flip them for 45 today
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Sep 22, 2015 04:58
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A Time To Chill posted:So is the consensus here that it's safe to hold NOs for now? Or should I panic sell at a 10c/share loss? They're not going to close the market because someone filed fake papers a month ago Like I said before if he'd actually filed those papers it would have been a media shitstorm in minutes.
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Sep 22, 2015 05:03
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A Time To Chill posted:So is the consensus here that it's safe to hold NOs for now? Or should I panic sell at a 10c/share loss? It's not actually Diamond Joe. There's no way in hell he could file silently a month ago and no one would notice. Especially with the press salivating at the thought of him and Hillary fighting. I'm just disappointed that the market hasn't gone way down so I could buy super ridiculously cheap Nos before the market realized they'd been had and the price rebounded.
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Sep 22, 2015 05:03
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Necc0 posted:They're not going to close the market because someone filed fake papers a month ago Gyges posted:It's not actually Diamond Joe. There's no way in hell he could file silently a month ago and no one would notice. Especially with the press salivating at the thought of him and Hillary fighting. I don't at all dispute that the filing is super fake. But aren't the people running the site ridiculously spergy rules lawyers?
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Sep 22, 2015 05:05
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In other news someone is buying into R-Money and there's rumors that Trump has pissed him off enough that he'll enter. I don't think he will but if he does it better come with John Cena-Horns as he descends onto a debate stage
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Sep 22, 2015 05:05
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A Time To Chill posted:I don't at all dispute that the filing is super fake. But aren't the people running the site ridiculously spergy rules lawyers? Yes and that's my point. Jindal actually DID suspend his campaign. That was enough to trigger the rules. Biden HAS NOT FILED PAPERS
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Sep 22, 2015 05:06
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A Time To Chill posted:I don't at all dispute that the filing is super fake. But aren't the people running the site ridiculously spergy rules lawyers? Yeah, which supports the claim that they wouldn't use a fake filing. It doesn't say "a filing under the name of..." or anything like that.
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Sep 22, 2015 05:07
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Necc0 posted:Yes and that's my point. Jindal actually DID suspend his campaign. That was enough to trigger the rules. Biden HAS NOT FILED PAPERS That's fair and I'm inclined to side with your interpretation. But devil's advocate: A Joe Biden entered, if not THE Joe Biden. The rules don't actually specify a particular Joe Biden (though obviously you would have to be on another level of  to not understand the spirit of the question).
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Sep 22, 2015 05:10
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In any case, I'll probably hold because I'd take a substantial loss at this point anyway. Might as well let it ride and hope PI isn't as dumb as its commenters.
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Sep 22, 2015 05:12
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A Time To Chill posted:That's fair and I'm inclined to side with your interpretation. But devil's advocate: A Joe Biden entered, if not THE Joe Biden. The rules don't actually specify a particular Joe Biden (though obviously you would have to be on another level of Willing to believe having his picture right there should be enough. Not to mention if they actually did close the market over some random Joe Biden entering the market it'd destroy their entire site and they'd more likely than not have a huge lawsuit on their hands. Who would ever bet on any market again if any random person could start throwing around fake papers to game it?
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Sep 22, 2015 05:15
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I just bought into Biden NO when I saw it was down to .43 again, then I read the comments, then I freaked the gently caress out and came here. I think I'm going to hold on. If they close the market because of this poo poo I'm cashing out and am done with the site; Necc0 is correct in that it'll ruin their reputation.
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Sep 22, 2015 05:26
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Is there any rhyme or reason to the way RealClearPolitics updates its polling average?
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Sep 22, 2015 05:36
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platzapS posted:Is there any rhyme or reason to the way RealClearPolitics updates its polling average? I'm pretty sure they have an approved list of polling outfits.
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Sep 22, 2015 05:37
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Yeah but it's not clear which of the approved outlets they use in the average and from what time period. See here: clearly the old CNN poll went away because there's a new one, but why isn't PPP in? It's within the past month.
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Sep 22, 2015 07:00
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it seems PI is slightly falling for this technicality bullshit
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Sep 22, 2015 08:51
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Aliquid posted:it seems PI is slightly falling for this technicality bullshit It seems to basically be one guy trying to get other people to believe him. I wonder if he's just playing them.
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Sep 22, 2015 08:54
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Of course he is.
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Sep 22, 2015 15:09
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Scott Walker (and Jindal) just cost me half my alpha. I shouldn't have double dipped.
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Sep 22, 2015 16:36
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I'm holding out for the end of the month, just letting all my money ride on Trump > 25, Biden > 15, Bush < 10. This is a very heart-wrenching way to do this, I'm going to be waiting way too long and Trump has a real potential to dip in the polls.
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Sep 22, 2015 18:01
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https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1223/Will-congressional-job-approval-be-at-least-15-on-September-25 Looks like no here might be a decent buy at 20 cents. RCP has it at 15.2% right now, the latest poll was at 11%, and the next poll to be removed will be a 17%.
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Sep 22, 2015 18:02
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If they ever get rid of the poll from two months ago, that is.
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Sep 22, 2015 18:13
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fronz posted:If they ever get rid of the poll from two months ago, that is. The folks running RCP probably wonder why there are so many eager applicants to work as an unpaid intern for the site.
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Sep 22, 2015 21:32
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I wish there were a way to set upper and lower limits. Like, I want to sell these shares at 79 cents, but if there's a frenzy going on, I don't want to drop below 70 so I'll let go of them at that too, but I guess with the way the site operates that's not really possible.
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Sep 22, 2015 21:51
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pathetic little tramp posted:I wish there were a way to set upper and lower limits. Like, I want to sell these shares at 79 cents, but if there's a frenzy going on, I don't want to drop below 70 so I'll let go of them at that too, but I guess with the way the site operates that's not really possible. I've been thinking of this lately too, on account of that piece of poo poo Scott Walker.
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Sep 22, 2015 21:53
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yea, it'd be great if you could short and long
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Sep 22, 2015 23:06
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Wanamingo posted:https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1223/Will-congressional-job-approval-be-at-least-15-on-September-25 This was a good bet and I won a dollar so thank you 
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Sep 23, 2015 04:28
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I got nervous about biden and the shutdown and pulled out. At least "Donald trump will be at 25" is a safe 20% profit.
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Sep 23, 2015 15:51
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I just realized I have no loving idea if Biden is going to run or not and why am i betting on this
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Sep 23, 2015 18:03
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Aliquid posted:I just realized I have no loving idea if Biden is going to run or not and why am i betting on this Yeah, that was my realization too, I'm really completely unsure if all this 'I'm not sure if I'll be ready' is show or not.
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Sep 23, 2015 18:06
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Stereotype posted:This was a good bet and I won a dollar so thank you Should've went bigger, I sold already and won like $20.
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Sep 23, 2015 18:54
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I need more "thing will happen" to bet on. Poll betting is a lot more susceptible to random little outliers.
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Sep 23, 2015 19:28
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I wish the shutdown market wasn't so stable. I was hoping for big swings when I bought in.
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Sep 23, 2015 19:51
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A Time To Chill posted:I wish the shutdown market wasn't so stable. I was hoping for big swings when I bought in. Ayup. I bought a bunch of yes shares early on expecting them to go up, and just today switched to no at a small loss because I didn't want to get caught with my pants down when they pass the continuing resolution.
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Sep 23, 2015 20:07
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:45 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 23, 2015 20:25
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It's me. I'm the guy that always loses money to yall.
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Sep 23, 2015 20:32
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Yeah, I hosed myself by buying yes just before the announcement of the CR pathway. I still think there's a good chance of a shutdown, but I think my chances of catching an upward rise during the next few days are history. As long as the CR doesn't pass by next week, prices should go up from here. Unless you've got yes shares in the high 40s or more there should still be enough of an upward flux to make some money. Even if you think the shutdown will be averted, the current valuation isn't reasonable come next week. Keeping in mind that reasonable isn't necessarily the default setting for the market. Also that I thought some level of panic would have set in by now. Which hasn't happened.
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Sep 23, 2015 20:38
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Wanamingo posted:Ayup. I bought a bunch of yes shares early on expecting them to go up, and just today switched to no at a small loss because I didn't want to get caught with my pants down when they pass the continuing resolution. I thought about switching to no but I kinda just wanna get out of the market altogether. It could go either way. At this point, I'm just holding on in the hopes it goes up a little bit this weekend and I can get my money back.
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Sep 23, 2015 20:56
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