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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:45 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 23, 2015 21:00
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:I think it'll pass the Senate, but I'm not so sure about what will happen in the House. I suppose if the first domino falls, the next one will too. There's not much time to operate though, so my hope is that if Cruz or Rand or whomever try some fuckery, it'll be enough to push things past midnight. Well first they're doing the no money for PP CR, so that's going to fail. Then they have to introduce and pass the "clean" CR, which is going to take longer. I don't think the text of either has been seen yet, and there's an off chance that the Democrats raise a little hell if the CR includes sequestration. Not much of one, but it does exist. Peak Reid trolling would be to defeat the poison pill CR buy just one vote so the House crazies think there's a chance of them ramming it through. Really though all the will they won't they drama is going to come from the House, which hasn't done anything at all yet. The Senate was always going to be the reasonable one and actually pass something. McConnell and friends are rumored to be crossing all the ts and dotting all the is so neither Cruz nor Rand can gently caress things up all on their own.
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Sep 23, 2015 21:29
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Just got Berned by the new Fox poll. RCP added a new poll and didn't immediately remove an old one. Then five minutes later it did remove the old one. Fortunately I was able to sell some shares in the ensuing chaos.
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Sep 24, 2015 00:23
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haha after this morning's bernie at 24 polls I got out of that market, because i didn't expect another poll to come out soon with him >25. whoops
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Sep 24, 2015 00:28
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fronz posted:haha after this morning's bernie at 24 polls I got out of that market, because i didn't expect another poll to come out soon with him >25. whoops drat yeah I got scared and dumped all of mine a couple days ago. Oh well.
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Sep 24, 2015 00:49
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I usually stay out of the polling markets unless it's pretty obvious what's going to happen. Trump and Bush for the month seem pretty safe money and I've made a decent amount off them. Obama Gallup can usually be bet across all the slices so you make money on all or most of the section. Bernie and Hillary are too close to the betting line for me. In stupid bets on polling news, Congressional Approval For the Week is under 20 cents a share for no. Since it's been sitting at 15.2 since last week that may be a good place to make some money. I already doubled what I put in last time it was at 20. Edit: Selling No is around 10 cents. Is there a poll out that hasn't been entered into RCP or something? Gyges has issued a correction as of 00:59 on Sep 24, 2015 |
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Sep 24, 2015 00:55
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quote:This market is tied to the candidacy of the individual currently serving as Vice President of the United States, identified in the rules as Joseph R. Biden, Jr. Other individuals indicating the same name on FEC filings, whether fraudulently or otherwise, will not impact the settlement of this market. PredictIt has the right and absolute discretion to determine if someone has filed a statement of candidacy under the same or similar name but is not the person intended or pictured in the question. Are you guys happy, now?
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Sep 24, 2015 02:07
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:45 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 24, 2015 02:35
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Gyges posted:Trump and Bush for the month seem pretty safe money and I've made a decent amount off them Oh my loving god. e: RCP removed a bunch of the republican nomination polls so that for, like, the first time ever on that site, it's based on a 5-day polling average, pushing Donald's rating down to 24. fronz has issued a correction as of 13:49 on Sep 24, 2015 |
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Sep 24, 2015 13:46
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Yeah that's why those are crapshoots. Never hold those, just play the swings. Or buy a poo poo load of cheap shares near the end of the term to see if you can turn a buck 80 into ten bucks.
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Sep 24, 2015 13:56
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fronz posted:Oh my loving god. Hahahaha.
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Sep 24, 2015 15:31
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 The intern strikes again
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Sep 24, 2015 15:46
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I've been getting trolled pretty hard lately.
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Sep 24, 2015 15:48
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Man I promised myself I wouldn't touch the poll markets after getting burned when I first started with this site back in April but I had to touch the stove again, didn't I?
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Sep 24, 2015 16:01
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fronz posted:Oh my loving god. Definitely why polls suck for betting. Still, if The Donald only has to gain 1 point there's a decent chance of still coming out ahead. And of course I'm getting hosed for putting money on a poll market for more than 2 days. At least my Bush holdings cover the Trump if it all turns to ash.
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Sep 24, 2015 16:02
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Necc0 posted:Man I promised myself I wouldn't touch the poll markets after getting burned when I first started with this site back in April but I had to touch the stove again, didn't I? His polling was unsinkable!
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Sep 24, 2015 16:07
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*slams hand onto sizzling griddle* RCP INTERN! I DEFY YOU!!
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Sep 24, 2015 16:08
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only suckers vote on polls  seriously, there are too many moving pieces involved with them. and for what? there's little return. give me events and nothing more. plenty of money to make in those.
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Sep 24, 2015 16:09
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Abel Wingnut posted:only suckers vote on polls The poll markets exist to redistribute money from people who make casual bets to the folks refreshing every five minutes.
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Sep 24, 2015 16:23
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Trump still has a week to recover only one point so I'm kind of surprised the market reacted as heavily as it did
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Sep 24, 2015 16:37
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Necc0 posted:Trump still has a week to recover only one point so I'm kind of surprised the market reacted as heavily as it did Now is a great time to buy in!
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Sep 24, 2015 16:40
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I somehow timed the Trump <25 perfect. I had bought at 75 last week, saw him dropping and sold at 80 last night and reversed the bet thinking it might be an arbitrage opportunity. Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. Just wish I would have bought more "No" last night. Unfortunately it doesn't make up for the disastrous bet that CNN would exclude Carly in the debate. I also got burned on the Obama approval ratings, which suckered me in, but might as well be random. 
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Sep 24, 2015 17:00
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Vox Nihili posted:Now is a great time to buy in! If I didn't have like 500 shares still I would. At least all but 50 of my Bush had already sold at about 30 cents profit before this morning's crash. Edit: Actually at 10 cents a share I changed my mind. That is a good deal with almost a week to go and Trump trumping around in the media. Gyges has issued a correction as of 17:03 on Sep 24, 2015 |
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Sep 24, 2015 17:00
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Yeah I bought in on some Congress above 15 NO and Trump above 25 Yes. Overall investment, about 10 dollars, overall return if both of those switch up (which is not impossible) is about 80 dollars.
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Sep 24, 2015 17:12
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I just have to make sure I go back and cancel any left over buy offers on Trump and Congressional polling later. Don't want dangling 10 cent offers if it all tanks again. Edit: The comments bitching about how unfair RCP changes are, are the best. The entire bet is on what RCP will do, but it's soooo hosed up when RCP does something. Gyges has issued a correction as of 17:48 on Sep 24, 2015 |
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Sep 24, 2015 17:42
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One thing that I just noticed. The value of your shares is not based on what you can actually sell them for, but based on what they were last traded at. That's a pretty important distinction, I thought I'd miraculously doubled the price of my cheapo longshots from this morning.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:18
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pathetic little tramp posted:One thing that I just noticed. The value of your shares is not based on what you can actually sell them for, but based on what they were last traded at. That's a pretty important distinction, I thought I'd miraculously doubled the price of my cheapo longshots from this morning. I was wondering which figure they were using to calculate it since I notice my value fluctuates nearly every time I refresh.
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Sep 24, 2015 20:42
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The Senate didn't even need to filibuster to kill the Defund PP version of the CR. Their own version should pass Monday and the House won't have the stamina to hold firm now that representatives got their "Vote for me I defunded PP" vote in. Not saying NO is a lock at this point, but you're probably not going to get much of a spike on the YESwagon as we count up to the end.
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Sep 24, 2015 23:49
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So apparently there's money still to be squeezed out of Scott Walker quitting. People seem to be randomly clicking on the market and buying yes shares on the other candidates. Perhaps they think it's the new who will drop out, but now Pataki Nos are selling for almost 90 cents.
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Sep 25, 2015 01:23
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Gyges posted:So apparently there's money still to be squeezed out of Scott Walker quitting. People seem to be randomly clicking on the market and buying yes shares on the other candidates. Perhaps they think it's the new who will drop out, but now Pataki Nos are selling for almost 90 cents. Speaking of which, why haven't they settled that market yet?
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Sep 25, 2015 03:59
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Vox Nihili posted:Speaking of which, why haven't they settled that market yet? Burn them once, shame on Jindal. Burn them twice, shame on them. So they're waiting the full week before declaring Walker out.
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Sep 25, 2015 04:07
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Gyges posted:Burn them once, shame on Jindal. Burn them twice, shame on them. So they're waiting the full week before declaring Walker out. Nope. Technically all the planets could align and the caucuses declare support for Walker out of the loving blue. They probably won't close it until the RNC
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Sep 25, 2015 05:10
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Necc0 posted:Nope. Technically all the planets could align and the caucuses declare support for Walker out of the loving blue. They probably won't close it until the RNC What? It's set to close a week after a candidate suspends their campaign. Check the rules.
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Sep 25, 2015 06:27
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Wanamingo posted:What? It's set to close a week after a candidate suspends their campaign. Check the rules. I think he was talking about the R nomination market, which they probably wont resolve for NO Walker until the end
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Sep 25, 2015 07:59
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Stereotype posted:I think he was talking about the R nomination market, which they probably wont resolve for NO Walker until the end Yup. I misread that post
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Sep 25, 2015 13:33
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I JUST put money on the gov not shutting down Boehner better not gently caress this up for me. Jesus
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Sep 25, 2015 14:35
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why would boehner leaving avoid the shutdown?
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Sep 25, 2015 14:39
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Necc0 posted:I JUST put money on the gov not shutting down Boehner better not gently caress this up for me. Jesus Boehner just announced he's stepping down in October, so good luck. 
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Sep 25, 2015 14:40
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Abel Wingnut posted:why would boehner leaving avoid the shutdown? I don't know I just really don't like this timing. I hope that this is a signal that he's going to cooperate with the democrats to pass a clean budget and knows he's hosed when he does that so he's just getting the first 'you can't fire me I quit' word in. edit: the market seems to agree with me. Alright I'm gonna stop panicking Necc0 has issued a correction as of 14:53 on Sep 25, 2015 |
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Sep 25, 2015 14:48
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Abel Wingnut posted:why would boehner leaving avoid the shutdown? He has nothing to lose by cutting a deal with the Democrats now.
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Sep 25, 2015 16:35
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