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mobby_6kl posted:However, I think it's too late for the no-fly zone. Had it been put in place a year ago, Putin would just have to suck it, but now again by being so slow and indecisive, Putin forced us to be the aggressor should we decide to do something about this. I think the only alternate is what McCain suggested, which is having some advanced anti air weapons fall off a truck in Homs. It's a bit less public, but it's also more confrontational. With a no fly zone, we can tell Russia that their planes will be shot down beginning at X time. Then it's on them to decide whether to escalate. It gives them an opportunity to back down. If we just give the opposition the means to take out Russian jets, the odds of a plane being shot down are much higher than with a no fly zone, and that's obviously something we should try to avoid. It's really the only option other than turning a blind eye, and doing that creates more problems than it solves.
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Oct 2, 2015 14:38
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We give stingers away like their cookies at a PTO meeting. I'd be surprised if the non-ISIS rebels don't already have some (or a 3rd party reasonable alternative for deniability), they probably just weren't expecting to get hit yesterday so didn't have them out and ready.
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Oct 2, 2015 14:44
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I think if what was said about the Russians being deficient in precision weapons (they'll have to fly lower to be accurate) is true, and knowing that rebel factions already have a bunch of anti-aircraft weapons sufficient for taking down or scaring off low-flying aircraft, we should start to see Russian planes fall out of the sky with or without a certain truck dropping a bunch of missiles in Homs.
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Oct 2, 2015 14:46
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thrakkorzog posted:Well, it's not like she could have advised setting up no fly zones in Syria back when she was Secretary of State, you know, several years ago when that would have been mildly useful. It probably wouldn't have solved anything, but her husband did alright enforcing No Fly Zones. I think the difference is that when she was secretary of state, she could have encouraged it to actually happen. Now that she is not in an official position its just meaningless bluster.
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Oct 2, 2015 14:57
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Murgos posted:Strategically, if Russia holds Crimea the whole thing is a Russian success. Your pointing out how homey and hospitable the house still is even though it has no roof or glass in it's windows. "Holds" is a pretty strong word. They're politically marginalized within Ukraine but unable to be Russian territory either because nobody recognizes a criminal attempt at a land grab.
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Oct 2, 2015 14:59
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Volkerball posted:I think the only alternate is what McCain suggested, which is having some advanced anti air weapons fall off a truck in Homs. It's a bit less public, but it's also more confrontational. With a no fly zone, we can tell Russia that their planes will be shot down beginning at X time. Then it's on them to decide whether to escalate. It gives them an opportunity to back down. If we just give the opposition the means to take out Russian jets, the odds of a plane being shot down are much higher than with a no fly zone, and that's obviously something we should try to avoid. It's really the only option other than turning a blind eye, and doing that creates more problems than it solves. I think whether a no-fly zone is a good idea or not boils down to one issue: do you want to shoot down a Russian jet. If yes then go for the no fly zone. If not then you're going to look stupid when the Russians violate it and you do nothing. So do you want to shoot down a Russian jet? My bet is no.
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Oct 2, 2015 15:05
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Any advanced weapons the US gives to the "good" rebels will inevitably fall into the hands of ISIS, the "bad" rebels or Assad. Didn't most of the US trained rebels run away? Loose stingers in an area with uncontrolled borders is a security nightmare. How long until US aircraft or civilian airliners end up being at risk?
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Oct 2, 2015 15:20
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FAUXTON posted:"Holds" is a pretty strong word. They're politically marginalized within Ukraine but unable to be Russian territory either because nobody recognizes a criminal attempt at a land grab. LOL. Why does Russia care about Crimean political clout within Ukraine? Also, they have already claimed Crimea as Russian territory and no one seems to be contesting it very seriously, except for a portion of the local Tartar population who are blocking some of the roads. If Ukraine could push Russia out of Donbass AND blockade Crimea, maybe you would have a point but the first looks unlikely and the second is outright impossible without foreign intervention.
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Oct 2, 2015 15:42
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Vladimir Putin posted:I think whether a no-fly zone is a good idea or not boils down to one issue: do you want to shoot down a Russian jet. If yes then go for the no fly zone. If not then you're going to look stupid when the Russians violate it and you do nothing. Why is the onus on the US to not shoot down a Russian jet rather than on Russia to not violate a no fly zone they were clearly informed about? If Putin wants to call a bluff when there isn't one, that's his problem, but to be honest, I don't see him doing that. He'd find some other way to save face rather than risk having poo poo get shot down and then slinking away with his tail between his legs.
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Oct 2, 2015 15:50
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Frosted Flake posted:Any advanced weapons the US gives to the "good" rebels will inevitably fall into the hands of ISIS, the "bad" rebels or Assad. Didn't most of the US trained rebels run away? This. It has happened time and time again. Any AA weapons provided to the FSA will inevitably be used again US, French, Jordanian or Turkish aircraft down the road. It's a very bad idea.
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Oct 2, 2015 15:53
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Well someone gave the rebels Chinese FN-6 MANPADS, and it wasn't the US, and whoever it is might feel it's time to reopen the supply.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:00
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Brown Moses posted:Well someone gave the rebels Chinese FN-6 MANPADS, and it wasn't the US, and whoever it is might feel it's time to reopen the supply. Haven't seen you in a while, busy as hell with all the goings on?
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Oct 2, 2015 16:09
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Volkerball posted:Why is the onus on the US to not shoot down a Russian jet rather than on Russia to not violate a no fly zone they were clearly informed about? If Putin wants to call a bluff when there isn't one, that's his problem, but to be honest, I don't see him doing that. He'd find some other way to save face rather than risk having poo poo get shot down and then slinking away with his tail between his legs. Because if you are going to threaten something you must be willing to follow through even if you don't think it's likely. You can institute a no fly zone and calculate that it's highly likely that Putin will back down and not violate. Fine, not a problem. But you have to account for the worst case scenario in which Putin violates it in which case you must follow through on your threat. So are we willing to follow through? If not, then don't make the threat and don't do a no fly zone.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:12
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Frosted Flake posted:Any advanced weapons the US gives to the "good" rebels will inevitably fall into the hands of ISIS, the "bad" rebels or Assad. Didn't most of the US trained rebels run away? A US plane was shot down just yesterday in Afghanistan. Vladimir Putin posted:So do you want to shoot down a Russian jet? My bet is no. I'm under the impression that Volkerball's solution to everything is to blow it up.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:16
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Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:A US plane was shot down just yesterday in Afghanistan. No, it just crashed. They've found no evidence to support it being shot down.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:20
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CommieGIR posted:No, it just crashed. They've found no evidence to support it being shot down. Well that's what I get for having NPR as my news source then.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:21
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Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:Well that's what I get for having NPR as my news source then. http://www.airforcetimes.com/story/military/2015/10/01/c-130-crashes-afghanistan/73173916/ The Taliban claimed they shot it down. They can't find any evidence to support that claim.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:27
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CommieGIR posted:http://www.airforcetimes.com/story/military/2015/10/01/c-130-crashes-afghanistan/73173916/ There is the fair point to be made though that it is probably a terrible idea to supply arms against a major military power that has the ability to supply arms itself unless you really want to go down that road. That said, some people really seem to want that period of history back so much it is probably physically hurting them.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:34
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Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:
"Hrm yeah we should start bombing Separatists in Eastern Ukraine, that won't start World War loving 3 immediately"
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Oct 2, 2015 16:36
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FeedingHam2Cats posted:"Hrm yeah we should start bombing Separatists in Eastern Ukraine, that won't start World War loving 3 immediately" It won't, hope this helps.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:38
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Its time for Obama to grow a pair and whoop Putin on the rear end with a bold move imo. E: and I am far from being a hawk.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:43
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WW3 won't happen because the entire logic of the Cold War nuclear standoff went out the door with the fall of the USSR.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:44
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It's not just the rebels though. The US gave Iraq "Monkey Model" Abrams without DU armour and probably without the latest models of comms and firecontrol systems. As much as it might feel satisfying to flood the region with weapons, it's worth keeping in mind that even if the FSA won there would be no guarantee of a government friendly to the US, let alone one that could control weapons systems within its borders. The problem with Russian involvement specifically is that any weapons system that can effectively engage a SU-34 or T-90 would also be effective against F-15s and Abrams. In fact, they would need to be. These aren't Assad's poorly maintained, poorly flown MiG-23s.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:46
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Miltank posted:WW3 won't happen because the entire logic of the Cold War nuclear standoff went out the door with the fall of the USSR. ....what? Putin has not only actively pushed the idea that he is refreshing their offensive stockpile, but is upgrading their ABM systems as well. I mean, to be fair, we actively refresh our stockpile as our warheads age, but he wants to build brand new weapons and increase his stockpile. The standoff is alive and well.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:46
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CommieGIR posted:Haven't seen you in a while, busy as hell with all the goings on? Been sorting out funding for Bellingcat, doing a bunch of events and meetings, and preparing stuff for the Dutch Safety Board report on MH17 released on October 13th. I just got it all sorted and now Russia bombs Syria, which seems to have done a lot more damage to my productivity than ISIS. I've just written a piece for First Draft so everyone can learn to find interesting stuff on Syrian social media themselves.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:53
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Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:I'm under the impression that Volkerball's solution to everything is to blow it up. I suppose when every fear presented over the prospect of intervention has been realized, and we've hit worst case scenario in several regards due to a dumb poo poo do nothing and let it ferment policy, "lol volkerball, amirite?  " is about all you've got left to defend yourself.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:53
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FeedingHam2Cats posted:"Hrm yeah we should start bombing Separatists in Eastern Ukraine, that won't start World War loving 3 immediately" Yeah, this logic sure stopped Putin from bombing CIA assets in Syria.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:56
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Brown Moses posted:Been sorting out funding for Bellingcat, doing a bunch of events and meetings, and preparing stuff for the Dutch Safety Board report on MH17 released on October 13th. I just got it all sorted and now Russia bombs Syria, which seems to have done a lot more damage to my productivity than ISIS. I've just written a piece for First Draft so everyone can learn to find interesting stuff on Syrian social media themselves. Nice, looking forward to it.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:57
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Sorry to barge into the "now suddenly we give a poo poo" brigade, but can someone recommend a really good article/think piece about just the scale of the devastation/humanitarian crisis the Syrian civil war is? Far from being that only now I give a poo poo, I've always thought that discussion about the Syrian civil war, especially now with the refugee crisis in europe, no matter how hard they try, always fail to properly layout just what a horrible horrible hell is currently being lived in Syria. I really want to get an idea of the scope. Also if there is some good podcast/podcast episode would be great too.
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Oct 2, 2015 16:58
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quote:Russian Air Forces' Su-25 jets conducted 2 strike missions against ISIS terrorist base around Maarat al-Numaan, destroying previously scouted ammo & explosives depot. quote:Su-24 bombers engaged ISIS roadblock near MAARRAT AL-NUUMAN: video shows terrorists shelters being hit. quote:Su-34 bombers attacked #ISIS training camp near MAADAN-JADID & hidden HQ near CASSERT-FARRAHJ to the south-west of city of RAQQAH
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Oct 2, 2015 17:19
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CommieGIR posted:....what? Putin has not only actively pushed the idea that he is refreshing their offensive stockpile, but is upgrading their ABM systems as well.
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Oct 2, 2015 17:24
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If Putin wants to play game with plausible deniability then let him, but its a two way street.
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Oct 2, 2015 17:25
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Miltank posted:If Putin wants to play game with plausible deniability then let him, but its a two way street. I know that that cold warrior 'Merica  stuff is an easy way to cope with what's going on right now, but it's worth mentioning that if the game is "arm the other side's enemies" America has a lot more to lose than Russia. What you're suggesting is a very, very dangerous proposition that would in no way end well. What is your best possible outcome here?America gives Russia a bloody nose, and they what? Stop trying to carry out their foreign policy goals not only with their only remaining ally in the Middle East but also in their own backyard?
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Oct 2, 2015 17:30
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Gozinbulx posted:Sorry to barge into the "now suddenly we give a poo poo" brigade, but can someone recommend a really good article/think piece about just the scale of the devastation/humanitarian crisis the Syrian civil war is?  Literally half of Syria's pre-2011 population are either refugees or internally displaced, the civil war shows no signs of ending, the neighboring countries are beyond maxed out, and Alan Kurdi brought the refugee issue to the forefront of discussion, because it apparently takes a photo of a dead toddler on a beach to get people to care. And all that was all before Russia decided that doing "Afghanistan 2: Syria edition" was a good idea.
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Oct 2, 2015 17:34
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Russia is best buds with Iran and Sisi too, so you can stop trying to pretend poor plucky Russia has no choice but to support their only ally in the middle east, even though said ally is an evil loving dictatorship in a failed state.
Volkerball fucked around with this message at 17:44 on Oct 2, 2015 |
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Oct 2, 2015 17:34
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Vladimir Putin posted:I think whether a no-fly zone is a good idea or not boils down to one issue: do you want to shoot down a Russian jet. If yes then go for the no fly zone. If not then you're going to look stupid when the Russians violate it and you do nothing. I guess there's still the option to enforce a no-fly-zone in southern Syria, since Russia is so far only claiming northern airspace. I highly doubt it will happen though.
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Oct 2, 2015 17:46
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Rukeli posted:I guess there's still the option to enforce a no-fly-zone in southern Syria, since Russia is so far only claiming northern airspace. I highly doubt it will happen though. What's the point of setting one down south?
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Oct 2, 2015 17:57
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Gozinbulx posted:Sorry to barge into the "now suddenly we give a poo poo" brigade, but can someone recommend a really good article/think piece about just the scale of the devastation/humanitarian crisis the Syrian civil war is? Yeah, we're too desensitized to words on a page. We read about people being murdered every day, and then everything is filtered through bullshit. At the same time you don't really want to watch the videos of atrocities for obvious reasons. Assad's government is a brutal dictatorship responsible for thousands of deaths. He's under Putin's influence and protection. The Saudi and American governments say they want regime change for these reasons. They fund and train insurgents to start a violent revolution (Link) as is their MO in many Middle-Eastern countries. Civil war follows as planned, with Assad refusing to step down. Civilians caught in the middle are massacred as usual. Russia props his government up by bombing the rebels. It's now a "stalemate". Everyone watches events unfold with mild interest. It's so awful but at least it's happening far away. What will those zany Russians do next? Mackers fucked around with this message at 18:09 on Oct 2, 2015 |
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Oct 2, 2015 17:57
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One way or another this ends with a mushroom cloud. We will have a secular globe or a dead one.
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Oct 2, 2015 18:04
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so whats goin on in egypt?
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Oct 2, 2015 18:06
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