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I really hope you guys are not all part of a conspiracy to scam me out of my money with Biden No.
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Oct 6, 2015 17:26
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User Error posted:I really hope you guys are not all part of a conspiracy to scam me out of my money with Biden No. I'm in your boat. We'll go down together.
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Oct 6, 2015 17:30
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Fuckin' same. There are 2500 shares of Biden NO available at .37 and those will last all day, so I figure that's a good buy-in spot. I sold about $15 worth of Rubio NO to strengthen my Bidens
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Oct 6, 2015 17:36
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It is in fact possible that Biden decides he's going to run but all the speculation so far has been from 'friends' and anonymous sources, while Biden himself has said he's not in the mood to run, he's not going to the debate, and it's really loving late in the cycle. Also today Claire McCaskill said "Biden is definitely not running." This shot the price of Biden YES up to 67 cents because this market is insane.
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Oct 6, 2015 17:52
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User Error posted:I really hope you guys are not all part of a conspiracy to scam me out of my money with Biden No. I've had this sinking feeling that I'm fundamentally missing something that everyone else can see for over a month now. Keep in mind that this site's tagline should be: 'Don't buy the hype' so stay strong. I seriously don't understand those 'Yes' guys though. Every material action has firmly pointed at him not running.
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Oct 6, 2015 17:53
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I blame the Onion. I dunno, people just like the guy and I guess that makes them act irrationally. I like Biden, too, but facts is facts
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Oct 6, 2015 18:03
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User Error posted:I really hope you guys are not all part of a conspiracy to scam me out of my money with Biden No. Conservatives have convinced themselves that Hillary is unelectable. From their perspective, Biden has a clear shot on the White House. So they bet along those we lines. Everyone more or less agrees that Biden will run if Clinton is toast, but these people just can't help but believe that Clinton has already flamed out.
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Oct 6, 2015 18:08
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Does anyone still have links to the earlier rumors that were saying he was definitely going to run? Did any of those give specific dates or timespans? edit: Also this rumor that Biden himself leaked the Beau story isn't going to look good Man I feel really bad if Biden just wants to be left alone and is getting caught up in all this bullshit
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Oct 6, 2015 18:09
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Necc0 posted:Does anyone still have links to the earlier rumors that were saying he was definitely going to run? Did any of those give specific dates or timespans? tinstaach posted:Somebody who was ~allegedly~ a Draft Biden PAC employee was ~allegedly~ overheard telling someone over the phone that Biden was "100% in". Nope, just some fundraiser talking to another dude on a train, lol I think the reason why this market and only this market is crazy is that there is no data whatsoever to go by, there's just an equal amount of people (or at least an equal amount of money) believing "He hasn't announced he's running yet, so he must not be running" and "He hasn't announced he's not running yet, he must be running".
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Oct 6, 2015 18:17
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What I'm really interested in is what it will take to make this market stabilize. Missing the first debate without announcing? Missing the first November deadlines? Straight up saying "I'm not running"?
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Oct 6, 2015 18:28
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That's it, riding the Biden train.
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Oct 6, 2015 18:55
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evilweasel posted:If I bet every single candidate (19 I think) for the Republican nomination will not win it, I am guaranteed to lose one, and only one, of those bets (and when I looked at the market, it would pay me $1.70 to make that bet, letting you pocket $0.70). PredictIt needs to hold $1 from me to be sure that I will pay up. However, they're holding $1 for each candidate, requiring a total of $19 locked up for a bet that can only lose $1. That's a good explanation!! Thanks  Now I understand.
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Oct 6, 2015 19:00
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Also technically he's not 'guaranteed' to lose one of the 19 bets as a dark horse could come out of nowhere and win. However this scenario only helps you so you don't have to worry about it.
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Oct 6, 2015 19:12
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Looks like Biden may have stabilized for the day. At one point I was able to pick up exactly one share of NO at .35
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Oct 6, 2015 19:45
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What's funny is Biden's net change for the day is zero. Market volatility is a drat strange thing.
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Oct 6, 2015 19:51
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I still hope they push Yes up to 67c in the next few days. I feel like we're maybe 2 or 3 unsourced news pieces away.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:00
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Aliquid posted:Looks like Biden may have stabilized for the day. At one point I was able to pick up exactly one share of NO at .35 This is the thing about the Biden market that is the most insane, it's so volatile with all but no information that you can repeatedly sell shares for 10-20 cents profit and just buy right back in by the end of the week. Possibly at an even lower level than before. If Biden does jump in the race I'm pretty sure I'm still ahead by a dollar or so at this point.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:07
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Oh, if he actually announces, I'm hosed.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:24
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Biden is being pushed by the media for horse race reasons. Mix that with name recognition and years of not being a target of anything but fun lovin' memes, and there ya go.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:31
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There are a few weirdos in the McCarthy market talking about how democrats might vote for the guy, Joe Biden isn't the only thing people there are being stupid about.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:32
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Yeah hell will freeze over before any democrats touch that vote
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Oct 6, 2015 20:53
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Me, I just wish I had bought in when it was 10 cents instead of 27.
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Oct 6, 2015 20:57
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:47 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 6, 2015 21:04
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It would be strange if he declared a run next week and then sat out of a debate a few days later. The rumor is that HE wants to run, but his family doesn't want him to.
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Oct 6, 2015 21:23
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Gosh, if there was only a way that Biden could let us all know that he wasn't going to run? People have been predicting that he'll declare "next week" since July. Meanwhile, Hillary is eating his breakfast in terms of donations and endorsements. If he decided he wanted to run awhile back, he's going about it the wrong way. His potential candidacy grows weaker every day he doesn't declare. The media want a horserace. The Republicans want someone to bloody Hillary. Some of his boosters also want him to get in on it, probably for their own selfish reasons. The real questions are 1) what does the party want of Biden and 2) what does Biden want. It's impossible to guess at #2, but #1 is pretty clear: the insiders want to protect Hillary. Biden is a party man and while no one can force him to do anything, the Party's influence on the race is difficult to underestimate. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 21:37 on Oct 6, 2015 |
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Oct 6, 2015 21:33
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The reason he's leaving it uncertain is he'll only run if it looks like Hillary's imploding or will implode.
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Oct 6, 2015 21:37
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Jewel Repetition posted:The reason he's leaving it uncertain is he'll only run if it looks like Hillary's imploding or will implode. Yeah. There really is no other explanation unless you think Biden is a fool. The Party wants a backup plan without weakening Hillary.
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Oct 6, 2015 21:38
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Jewel Repetition posted:The reason he's leaving it uncertain is he'll only run if it looks like Hillary's imploding or will implode. It also helps get non-negative news coverage for the Democrats in a cycle otherwise dominated but the GOP. When he declines, it'll be good for the party, making Hilldawg look like a strong and capable candidate; she may even get his endorsement.
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Oct 6, 2015 21:40
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:47 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 6, 2015 22:09
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It's worth noting that if you watch any of his interviews where he talks about running, for instance on Cobert, he seems pretty clearly to not be running. It's only in the random articles that come out and cite anonymous sources that are totally close with Biden that you hear that he's really, really, super thinking about it. Could he still jump in? Sure, his current emotional state could cut either way and he clearly has a desire to be President. However there are a lot or roadblocks to his running that he doesn't appear to be even trying to address. Given how late in the calendar it is, Hillary's overwhelming endorsements, skipping the upcoming debate, having no campaign infrastructure or even any real push for one, and absolutely no leaks of an intention to run beyond some guy who totally knows but can't say who he is, it's unlikely Biden does run.
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Oct 6, 2015 22:19
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Holy lol at the mass email for the PredictIt debate party in Vegas.
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Oct 6, 2015 22:38
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:C'mon man, you can't really believe this. By this logic, Elizabeth Warren should not have announced that she wasn't running. She could have teased and teased a run and made Hillary look like a strong and capable candidate! The media is absolutely making it into a horserace. They're desperate for a horserace. Every time Biden takes a poo poo they have five anonymous sources mentioning how this is a sign that he's super serious for real this time. Biden hasn't said no because it would used against him should he actually enter. He's clearly waiting on some sort of triggering event, and that seems to be a Hillary breakdown of some sort. Bottom line is that he could run, and is clearly keeping the option open, but the calculus seems increasingly disfavorable.
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Oct 6, 2015 22:54
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Interesting new categories in their new market: https://www.predictit.org/Market/16...Peace_Prize2015
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Oct 6, 2015 23:27
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Necc0 posted:Interesting new categories in their new market: https://www.predictit.org/Market/16...Peace_Prize2015 What is the likelihood of Merkel being penalized on any peace prize votes for the whole being a giant dickbag to Greece thing? I mean if Kerry gets it, the rest of the group probably does too. Though there's also Obama's Peace Prize that has good reason to be seen as finally earned with the Iran deal. Gyges has issued a correction as of 23:47 on Oct 6, 2015 |
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Oct 6, 2015 23:45
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Oct 7, 2015 00:00
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:47 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 7, 2015 00:04
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:The media loves a horsereace, but when Biden takes that poo poo, guess who leaks it to the press? Again, the fact that Biden camp has been the source of much of this speculation has been well reported. The most recent revelation is that the Biden/Warren meetup was leaked to the press by Biden himself. The Draft Biden group has been the source of much of this speculation. If I remember correctly the Biden/Warren meeting was leaked to the press by being in log of meetings. It was also the most ridiculous of the Holy poo poo, Biden Is Running "facts". Worse than the Draft Biden guy yelling about Biden running while on a train.
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Oct 7, 2015 00:20
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Politico ran this story just this morning. It's easy to see why the YESers are sticking to their guns, Biden's camp has been regularly providing glimpses of hope that he might run every now and then just to keep the door open. Just joined up and put an offer out for some NO stock, though, because I can't personally believe he would put himself through this ridiculous campaign cycle starting now, and if he doesn't join by the Dem debate there's really just no way, it'd be too easy for everyone else to blast him for not seriously committing by then. EDIT: The linked story is ridiculous, by the way. When was the last time someone joined the party primary race and really meant it after the primary debates had already started? (That's not a rhetorical question.) Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 00:27 on Oct 7, 2015 |
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Oct 7, 2015 00:21
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:47 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 7, 2015 00:30
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I didn't get the email. Post it
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Oct 7, 2015 00:33
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