- ocrumsprug
- Sep 23, 2010
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by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
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It's kind of hosed. Sloppy seconds?
Just remember, its hard to make 18 billion in transfer payments when your Province is operating at a fiscal loss (deficit). But you guys know all about how deficits are just transitory. Just wait 5 years and when the books balance with new tax hikes, we'll start sending Quebec and the "have not's" money again. Just like King Justin proclaimed it to be.
It is amazing how the 6 month old NDP government managed to make such a mess of things in such a short time.
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Oct 7, 2015 06:49
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- Adbot
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ADBOT LOVES YOU
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May 10, 2024 03:12
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- less than three
- Aug 9, 2007
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Fallen Rib
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No less than three.... Alberta is not bad at finance. It planned for a surplus, which happened regardless on WTI falling 60% from the highs, which is a pretty stellar example of financial planning, since most govts barely make ends meet at a 4% collapse in flat price. Such as Nigeria, Venezuela, Yemen, Russia and a whole host of Petostates I could namedrop. Your failure to see that difference is pretty sad.
We can pull out the equalization payment formula. Should I go get it, or do you want to shame yourself first ? My time is precious.
No, King Justin said deficits are ok so long as you pay them back. Yet he fails to grasp the concept of cash payables vs. income losses. Much like you in this post. So just stay in the shallow end of the argument next time, instead of trying to hate post.
Can I quote you as "Alberta: not as bad as Nigeria, Venezuela, Yemen, [or] Russia." You know how sound bites work.
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Oct 7, 2015 06:55
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- I would blow Dane Cook
- Dec 26, 2008
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Can't post for 14 hours!
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Did you watch the video where he explains tax arbitrage or is this just the new normal of nerdrage at concepts you cant understand. Herbalife was a trade. Nothing more, nothing less. If you hate Ichan for taking a squeeze trade, what are your thoughts on Loeb, Soros and Watsa ?
No less than three.... Alberta is not bad at finance. It planned for a surplus, which happened regardless on WTI falling 60% from the highs, which is a pretty stellar example of financial planning, since most govts barely make ends meet at a 4% collapse in flat price. Such as Nigeria, Venezuela, Yemen, Russia and a whole host of Petostates I could namedrop. Your failure to see that difference is pretty sad.
We can pull out the equalization payment formula. Should I go get it, or do you want to shame yourself first ? My time is precious.
No, King Justin said deficits are ok so long as you pay them back. Yet he fails to grasp the concept of cash payables vs. income losses. Much like you in this post. So just stay in the shallow end of the argument next time, instead of trying to hate post.
What the gently caress is this???
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Oct 7, 2015 06:58
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- ocrumsprug
- Sep 23, 2010
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by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
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What the gently caress is this???
This is our resident Conservative party apparatchik that communicates in autistic sperg masquerading as financial gibberish.
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Oct 7, 2015 07:15
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- I would blow Dane Cook
- Dec 26, 2008
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Can't post for 14 hours!
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quote:
In North America's Costliest City, Rich Chinese Take the Blame
James Hankle, a 50-something software engineer sporting blue jeans and a Green Party T-shirt, is trying to explain his fix for Vancouver’s runaway property prices when he’s interrupted by a eavesdropping passerby: “Stop allowing people from China to buy our houses and leave them vacant,” she says and walks away.
Despite British Columbia’s aversion to pipelines and affection for pot, housing affordability has pushed both aside as the number one issue raised by area residents in the run-up to Canada’s election this month. It’s not completely surprising given that Vancouver has become North America’s most expensive city.
Surging purchase prices have triggered protest movements like #donthave1million, started by a group of young professionals frustrated at being shut out of home ownership. They complain of having to delay starting families as they remain bunked in with roommates, often into their 30s and beyond.
The affordability issue speaks to broader campaign themes: the difficulty young people face getting established in the labor market, the economic anxieties of the middle class, growing concerns about income inequality, support for families with children. Residents also increasingly point fingers at wealthy Chinese immigrants and investors whose lavish embrace of the Pacific metropolis of 2.5 million has inspired reality TV shows with such gaudy names as “Ultra Rich Asian Girls in Vancouver.”
Vancouver, with its C$2.23 million ($1.7 million) average price tag for a detached home is playing an unusual role in the national election to be held Oct. 19. British Columbia is the only place where all four national parties are competitive -- the Conservatives, Liberals, New Democrats and Greens -- and, given the tightness of the race, its choices could spell the difference. As of now, the New Democrats and Liberals look likely to take some seats away from the Conservatives in the region, according to poll aggregator ThreeHundredEight.com.
The top contenders for prime minister, incumbent Conservative Stephen Harper, Liberal Justin Trudeau and New Democrat Tom Mulcair, have all given voice on campaign stopovers to the city’s particular anxiety by promising they will, if elected, gather data on foreign ownership of its pricey condos and bungalows. “There are real concerns that foreign, non-resident real estate speculation is the reason some Canadian families find house prices beyond their budgets,” Harper said Aug. 12 in Vancouver. “That is a matter we can and should do something about.”
Though no expert on the subject, Hankle, like just about everyone else across the city, is obsessed with the topic and increasingly resigned to never owning a house himself. Standing in Yaletown, a one-time industrial site where nearby two-bedroom apartments can go for C$1.8 million, he calls on political parties competing for his vote to build more low-cost housing and introduce programs to guarantee people a livable minimum income.
He also picks up on the theme of the passing woman, saying governments need to begin collecting data on exactly who’s coming into the city and their impact on affordability. “There’s a huge concentration of wealth and it just isn’t sustainable,” he says.
Bubble Unburst
Unlike the U.S., Canada didn’t experience a housing price collapse with the global recession and has defied predictions ever since that the bubble is about to burst. With the exception of declines in 2009, 2012 and 2013, housing prices have risen in each of the past 15 years, with the cost doubling from August
2005 to 2015, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, out-pacing wage gains.
The Economist Intelligence Unit has named Vancouver the most expensive city to live in North America and a 2014 study by consultancy Demographia cited it as the second-least affordable housing market in the world after Hong Kong. Rising prices in Vancouver pushed housing affordability to “risky levels” in the second quarter as the costs of owning a bungalow rose to an unprecedented 86.9 percent of household income, an August report by RBC Capital Markets said.
“There’s national trend on affordability and it gets especially bleak in Vancouver,” said Paul Kershaw, an associate professor at the University of British Columbia who studies the impacts of public policy on housing. “The dynamic is signaling a change in the standard of living and home ownership that has been the norm for previous generations.”
Record Debt
Vancouver’s 25-to-34 year old cohort earns less and carries more debt than a generation ago, Kershaw said, meaning it now takes 10 working years to save for a down payment versus two years back then.
Although harder pressed, Vancouver families are in good company in borrowing more and more to get ahead. The debt of the average Canadian household now stands at a record 165 percent of disposable income, according to Statistics Canada, about 30 points higher than before the recession and matching the levels of U.S. debt when its housing market crashed. Still, in Vancouver at least, prices are galloping ahead so quickly, they “make it a stretch” for a typical household to get into the market.
“It’s possible to live decently here as long as you’re single and don’t have dependents,” said Scott McFadyen, a 38-year-old audio designer in the video game industry who moved to Vancouver from Alberta. “Truthfully, I’m thinking twice about starting a family here.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-06/in-north-america-s-costliest-city-rich-chinese-face-backlash
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Oct 7, 2015 08:06
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- Aagar
- Mar 30, 2006
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E/N Gestapo
I am talking to a mod right now about getting you probated/banned/gassed
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Hey guys - I mostly just lurk and shake my head at the immenent bubble collapse. But I thought I'd share this article from the CBC website:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/real-estate-website-to-allow-new-home-purchase-online-with-credit-card-1.3257206
quote:
Real estate website to allow new home purchase online with credit card
Online shopping has finally hit the real estate market, but will Canadians buy in?
Your next home purchase may be just a click away — if you have the nerve to do it.
Canada-wide real estate search site BuzzBuzzHome plans to launch a "buy now" button, allowing Canadians to instantly purchase a new construction condo or house online with nothing more than a credit card.
No real estate agent, physical paperwork or sales centre visit will be required.
"From your couch, you can actually do the full transaction and not have to leave the comfort of your home," Matthew Slutsky, president and co-founder of Toronto-based BuzzBuzzHome, told CBC News.
The novel concept is already raising concerns — no surprise in an established industry currently under siege by emerging technologies that threaten to shake up the traditional real estate model.
Slutsky says new technology is behind his "buy now" button. His company already has a system in place to receive real-time information about pre-built condo sales and price changes.
He plans to post his button in January for new condos and, some months later, add pre-built houses. Only developers who agree to participate will have their properties for sale online.
"It's going to be I think pretty revolutionary in the market, and I think it's really going to change the game a lot," Slutsky said.
Cyber Home Shopping
Here's how it will work.
A buyer peruses BuzzBuzzHome's extensive listings of new construction homes across Canada. After choosing a participating property and clicking on the "buy now" button, the buyer reviews the related documents online. The buyer can also select any available features such as a condo parking spot or locker.
The buyer then digitally signs the purchase agreement and waits for the developer to sign off.
The cyber shopper then secures the property with a deposit, paid online with a credit card. Slutsky says the initial deposit for new construction condos is typically $5,000.
Once the transaction goes through, the property is yours — as long as you can secure a mortgage and pay the rest of the home's price tag, which will be required down the road as the project gets built.
"It will allow for a much smoother process," Slutsky said.
He points out that, unlike resale homes, new home shoppers don't have a physical property to view. Instead, he says, they can find everything they need online — from showroom photos to floor plans to builder reviews.
Slutsky believes his button will appeal to buyers of pre-built projects who like to do their own research online and don't want to waste time at a sales centre, enduring line-ups and sitting through the paperwork.
"It's a huge time savings if you know what you're interested in," he said.
Impulse buying?
Real estate expert John Andrew questions why anyone would want to save time on one of the biggest financial purchases of their lives.
"Don't you want to put some time into it — even just getting a feel, even just talking to a [sales centre] broker?" the Queen's University professor said.
Andrew argues that home shoppers — even those buying new units — need to do their due diligence, everything from investigating a builder's reputation to having a lawyer look over the contract. He worries a "buy now" button sends the wrong message, that purchasing real estate is a quick and easy transaction.
"It just seems to me it makes a very, very big decision, a very large investment almost cavalier," he said. "It makes it absurdly convenient, absurdly informal."
Slutsky argues cyber shoppers have plenty of online resources at their fingertips. Plus, he says, they can still seek the help of a real estate agent who will be compensated by the developer.
"In cases where the purchaser wants the extra input of the realtor, the realtor will not be left out of the equation and will get full commission," he said.
And for anyone who does make a rash, regretful purchase, Slutsky points out that many buyers will be protected by a "cooling off" period. Depending on location, the buyer may have up to up 10 days to back out of a new condo purchase.
Will it become the norm?
Condo investor Jen Goheen says she finds the traditional home buying method too laborious and would consider clicking on a "buy now" button for a future purchase.
"The real estate process is pretty antiquated," she said, "so something like that would definitely make it easier."
But then again, Goheen says, she's had problems with a couple condo developers in the past and would only make a cyber purchase "as long as I had enough information, background and was comfortable with that."
Regardless of whether individual shoppers do their research, Andrew still worries online real estate buying broadcasts the message that purchasing a home isn't a big deal. "It just kind of sets the wrong tone," he said.
Slutsky points out that people were once skeptical about buying merchandise online, but it has become the norm for many consumers. The same, he believes, will happen for online real estate purchases.
"Every other industry has started to go in that direction," he said. "There's very few things that you can't buy online anymore."
What could possibly go wrong?
Edit: Bonus - the comments which are lauding this as a great idea. Who wants banks and lawyers mucking up the process while taking exorbitant fees for adding no value? Give me mah condo right the gently caress now!
Aagar fucked around with this message at 10:56 on Oct 7, 2015
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Oct 7, 2015 10:52
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- tagesschau
- Sep 1, 2006
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Guten Abend, meine Damen und Herren.
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And yet here you are.
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Oct 7, 2015 12:38
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- cowofwar
- Jul 30, 2002
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by Athanatos
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Talking to a lawyer and driving to a site is too much work for the biggest purchase I will ever make. If only I could do it while naked in bed.
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Oct 7, 2015 12:41
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- unlimited shrimp
- Aug 30, 2008
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What the hell is "King Justin"? Are Conservatives so fetishistic of Republicans that they want to import that bullshit too?
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Oct 7, 2015 14:00
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- PT6A
- Jan 5, 2006
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Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
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Between this and Peeple, I'm starting to think that Canadians have lost any semblance of ability to tell a good idea from a terrible idea. It's getting embarrassing at this point.
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Oct 7, 2015 14:42
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- PT6A
- Jan 5, 2006
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Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
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There's a man on the train trying to socialize with everyone. It's excruciating and I want it to end.
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Oct 7, 2015 20:27
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- Postess with the Mostest
- Apr 4, 2007
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Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes
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I know how much this thread likes bad investments, broken marriages and bankruptcies so you'll probably love the story of our local coffee shop imploding. Also, I enjoy that the Ottawa Citizen felt it necessary to report on his alleged affair.
http://ottawacitizen.com/entertainment/local-arts/neat-cafe-faces-serious-financial-difficulties-appeals-to-patrons
http://ottawacitizen.com/entertainment/music/neat-cafe-closes-after-disappointing-festival-turnout
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Oct 7, 2015 20:38
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- PT6A
- Jan 5, 2006
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Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
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I had tourists ask me questions on the ferry today! How dare they! Like I want them to get where they are going! gently caress that! Oh, wait, I kind of do. Oh well, I helped them.
Asking for directions/help is not the same as socializing (trying to tell jokes and chat to random people who aren't interested). I'll help people who ask for help, or even ask them if they need help if they're confused and looking at the map or something. That's normal. Trying to start conversations with random people is much less normal.
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Oct 7, 2015 20:40
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- Juul-Whip
- Mar 10, 2008
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I had tourists ask me questions on the ferry today! How dare they! Like I want them to get where they are going! gently caress that! Oh, wait, I kind of do. Oh well, I helped them.
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Oct 7, 2015 20:42
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- namaste friends
- Sep 18, 2004
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by Smythe
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Shut up you loving autists
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Oct 7, 2015 20:51
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- velvet milkman
- Feb 13, 2012
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by R. Guyovich
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how i communicate with pretty girl on bus????
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Oct 7, 2015 20:56
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- Booourns
- Jan 20, 2004
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Please send a report when you see me complain about other posters and threads outside of QCS
~thanks!
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Asking for directions/help is not the same as socializing (trying to tell jokes and chat to random people who aren't interested). I'll help people who ask for help, or even ask them if they need help if they're confused and looking at the map or something. That's normal. Trying to start conversations with random people is much less normal.
Today on my bus ride home there was this guy in his 30/40s wearing earphones and he would just stare at random people and start air mimicing music. Then he'd stop for a few mins, only to go at it again, after a while everyone just looked out the windows to try and ignore him.
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Oct 7, 2015 23:48
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- Hal_2005
- Feb 23, 2007
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Only because I enjoy watching Canada threads go from smug circlejerks to full ad homin nerdrage in about 0 to 2 posts. Dropping a break inbetween each response to the above posters may be hard to follow, but we can fix that quickly:
To CI: That video link posted made a pretty good argument for a layman to understand how tax will affect repatriation of capital gains and cash flow. A badly designed tax code or even worse, a punitive tax code will encourage foreign market manufacturing which is leading to US & Canadian "hollowing out" of the NAFTA economy. It would seem your main gripe with Ichan after reading a few further posts is you are bitter he is an activist investor. Investing is politically agnostic. You cited Herbalife being a "ponzi", which is your opinion for citing the Ichan hate. Fair enough, but if you are bitter for Carl Ichan's activity in Herballife, then you must be bitter at Liberal stalwarts who also joined Carl Ichan on that trade like Prem Watsa, George Soros and and Dan Loeb. Right? I doubt you even knew your left wing heroes also invest for profit. Not every trade has to make sense and its important to discern the trade rationale from the very real message Ichan posted regarding the gridlock in Washington and the horrible tax planning being contemplated by the DNC currently as a solution to the lagging recovery in North America.
Moving on.
The thread tends to focus on absolute GDP, which is itself a loving horrible concept given seasonal and subjective adjustments to the trade and consumption figures for each province on the weekly rolls. I was pointing out to the autists who think Alberta is in a horrible position that they are correct. As I was correct in trying to explain this back in January of 2014, and in June of 2014, and in June 2015. The concept of a regieme change in the Canadian energy markets has led to about 48 billion in deferred capital, (more like 130b but whos counting for goons) and about 31 billion in market capital (equity value) which has left the economy. So yes, if you hand wave away the 14,000 white collar and support sector jobs which have been lost due to the downturn as purely a matter of crude oil commodity price collapse then one only needs to look at the sector underperformance of Canadian energy to its UK and US listed peers to understand Canadian energy, on a currency adjusted basis is lagging due to a capital exodus. A cursory google search confirms, I am correct that just like Ed Stelmach's AAR was statistically proven to be correlated to the collapse in shallow gas drilling investments, it is a well understood fact by both looking at aggregate market volumes in Canadian securities, the volume of Canadian marketed offerings, and Canadian exploration activity since Notley took office; their govt. has created serious damage to the province. ARC charts calculates nearly 80% of the current underperformance is directly correlated to Notley's government. So you can continue to argue Notley had zero effect on natural resource planning but she had an effect and it will be impacting the total GDP of Alberta for a few decades to come.
This being said, Alberta has outperformed nearly all its 'natural resource province' peers given the realized price for our exports when compared to OPEC and non-OPEC basket trading regimes. Canadian crude oil is one of the cheapest blends in the world now and despite a 57% discount to TI, and a collapse in export receipts revenues (in US dollar adjusted terms) of over 30%, we still managed to carry a government surplus at the Provincial level.
If you compare the magnitude of that collapse in both domestic value add, tax revenue and employment related VAT's, Alberta is outperforming all other regimes where the average unemployment rate has went from around 10% on average to over 50% in such places as Russia, Scotland etc etc. hydrocarbon generating provinces. Using this as the context, while Alberta is hosed, we are doing very well compared to peers. If we used the OPEC basket in our Alberta revenue projections and the OPEC unemployment numbers, Alberta would actually still be growing this year. So, on an apples to apples comparision, which is how the real world works, Dear Goons: Alberta's fiscal discipline is very good.
Which leads me to my final point:
The current confederation relies upon maintaining a consistent standard of care and living over all provinces. This requires allocating cash flow from provinces who are deemed "haves" to those who are deemed "have nots". You can look at the basic explanation at this handy link:
http://www.parl.gc.ca/Content/LOP/ResearchPublications/2008-20-e.htm
And if you want to learn a bit more, which is hard for goons to do at the best of times in D&D, you can go to:
https://business.ualberta.ca/Centres/~/media/business/Centres/WCER/Documents/Publications/155ElectronicApril2final.pdf
Now why does this matter. Well, there is the cash flow remitted to Ottawa and the earnings. One is an accounting book entry that Justin Trudeau's Liberal govt thinks is trivial, and the other is the cash which will be required to be sent up, regardless on the timing of amortization. I hope that is clear to you. If you look in the first link, the ability for Have Provinces to finance the rest of Canada's entitlements is capped due to a Fiscal Capacity Cap. Which is calculated based on how much revenue a province is generating, and then ahead of any regional or provincial allocations the Federal govt. will adjust disbursements to each province on an ad hoc basis according to how much Cash was taken in at tax time.
If you have fewer "have" provinces, then pro rata, more cash will need to be drawn from the other provincial balances to be equal. So in simple terms, the worse off Alberta gets, the more Alberta will gain net transfer of Cash and the less Cash will go to "have not" provinces, according to the formula. This ensures that provinces which gave excess cash to the underdeveloped provinces in good times, get it back in bad. So you can cheer on the destruction of Alberta all you like, but net-net? the Province of Alberta will by and large be taking cash from everyone else to facilitate its own revenue capabilities since Alberta must goal seek its earning potential to what it was in 2013 when the formula was audited for the 2015 year. No Ontario, or BC budget actually explains this small wrinkle, let alone the NDP or LPC platforms, which is why I felt it necesary to point out just how loving stupid "less that three' was acting this week. It would have been easy for "3" to do a bit of google, but he didn't, and I called him out for that.
What this implies is that the deficit spending numbers Justin and most Canadians think is the case for both their Federal action plans and their personal spending budgets are in reality massively underforcasted. To get around this divergence of accounting earnings/deficits and cash shortages, Justin's policy implies he will simply hike taxes over all Canadians in 3 years, just before he leaves Ottawa for reelection. As we know, spending today and assuming things get better "someday" is how Japan and most governments fail to grow out of their deficits. Its a viscous cycle of underaccounting for the deadweight loss in tax burdens, compounded with a slowdown in domestic spending for tax remittances which leads to perpetual under-performance of developed economies. Justin Trudeau, and many of his supporters who feel so smug in their understanding of federal economics gloss over this fact, which is why he is sarcastically called "king Justin". King Justin, much like most of the thread dwellers have very little understanding of tax revenue cash flows, and like the Emperor with no clothes, their arguments and comments look laughably naked to bond market watchers who have seen it all before in places such as Greece to Ontario. As all tax revenue assumptions and projections hinge upon the per capita income over the standardized history of the province and in the context of the federal transfer framework when those line items are calculated. Which is why when you break down Justin's math, he can not comprehend the 6.7 billion dollar bust in his 2015/16 numbers, which blows out to 18.9 billion by 2018 (when he would hike taxes)... which is about equal to the Alberta/SK transfers.
1 week into the election vote day, his most ardent supporters; proved by you lovable goons, still don't get it.
And you also required a full 1000+ word post to understand what 4 single blasts accomplished. So yes, it was worth my time to explain this, but it should have been apparent to you in my first response. Had half of you been as savvy with google as you claim to be on a day in- day out basis in Uncle Wong's then everything written above would have been intuitive for you. But it was not, and you all should feel equally as bad for your poor education on fiscal deficit impacts and weak rear end comprehension of Canada's debt situation. 3 years into this circlejerk and its still an echo chamber where goons can't decide how policy affects their life despite over 30(!) articles reposted from nearly every major economist, The Economist and trade journal on the planet covering this "bubble".
Hal_2005 fucked around with this message at 05:42 on Oct 8, 2015
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Oct 8, 2015 05:40
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- namaste friends
- Sep 18, 2004
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by Smythe
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literally no one cares what you think
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Oct 8, 2015 05:47
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- I would blow Dane Cook
- Dec 26, 2008
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Can't post for 14 hours!
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Only because I enjoy watching Canada threads go from smug circlejerks to full ad homin nerdrage in about 0 to 2 posts. Dropping a break inbetween each response to the above posters may be hard to follow, but we can fix that quickly:
To CI: That video link posted made a pretty good argument for a layman to understand how tax will affect repatriation of capital gains and cash flow. A badly designed tax code or even worse, a punitive tax code will encourage foreign market manufacturing which is leading to US & Canadian "hollowing out" of the NAFTA economy. It would seem your main gripe with Ichan after reading a few further posts is you are bitter he is an activist investor. Investing is politically agnostic. You cited Herbalife being a "ponzi", which is your opinion for citing the Ichan hate. Fair enough, but if you are bitter for Carl Ichan's activity in Herballife, then you must be bitter at Liberal stalwarts who also joined Carl Ichan on that trade like Prem Watsa, George Soros and and Dan Loeb. Right? I doubt you even knew your left wing heroes also invest for profit. Not every trade has to make sense and its important to discern the trade rationale from the very real message Ichan posted regarding the gridlock in Washington and the horrible tax planning being contemplated by the DNC currently as a solution to the lagging recovery in North America.
Moving on.
The thread tends to focus on absolute GDP, which is itself a loving horrible concept given seasonal and subjective adjustments to the trade and consumption figures for each province on the weekly rolls. I was pointing out to the autists who think Alberta is in a horrible position that they are correct. As I was correct in trying to explain this back in January of 2014, and in June of 2014, and in June 2015. The concept of a regieme change in the Canadian energy markets has led to about 48 billion in deferred capital, (more like 130b but whos counting for goons) and about 31 billion in market capital (equity value) which has left the economy. So yes, if you hand wave away the 14,000 white collar and support sector jobs which have been lost due to the downturn as purely a matter of crude oil commodity price collapse then one only needs to look at the sector underperformance of Canadian energy to its UK and US listed peers to understand Canadian energy, on a currency adjusted basis is lagging due to a capital exodus. A cursory google search confirms, I am correct that just like Ed Stelmach's AAR was statistically proven to be correlated to the collapse in shallow gas drilling investments, it is a well understood fact by both looking at aggregate market volumes in Canadian securities, the volume of Canadian marketed offerings, and Canadian exploration activity since Notley took office; their govt. has created serious damage to the province. ARC charts calculates nearly 80% of the current underperformance is directly correlated to Notley's government. So you can continue to argue Notley had zero effect on natural resource planning but she had an effect and it will be impacting the total GDP of Alberta for a few decades to come.
This being said, Alberta has outperformed nearly all its 'natural resource province' peers given the realized price for our exports when compared to OPEC and non-OPEC basket trading regimes. Canadian crude oil is one of the cheapest blends in the world now and despite a 57% discount to TI, and a collapse in export receipts revenues (in US dollar adjusted terms) of over 30%, we still managed to carry a government surplus at the Provincial level.
If you compare the magnitude of that collapse in both domestic value add, tax revenue and employment related VAT's, Alberta is outperforming all other regimes where the average unemployment rate has went from around 10% on average to over 50% in such places as Russia, Scotland etc etc. hydrocarbon generating provinces. Using this as the context, while Alberta is hosed, we are doing very well compared to peers. If we used the OPEC basket in our Alberta revenue projections and the OPEC unemployment numbers, Alberta would actually still be growing this year. So, on an apples to apples comparision, which is how the real world works, Dear Goons: Alberta's fiscal discipline is very good.
Which leads me to my final point:
The current confederation relies upon maintaining a consistent standard of care and living over all provinces. This requires allocating cash flow from provinces who are deemed "haves" to those who are deemed "have nots". You can look at the basic explanation at this handy link:
http://www.parl.gc.ca/Content/LOP/ResearchPublications/2008-20-e.htm
And if you want to learn a bit more, which is hard for goons to do at the best of times in D&D, you can go to:
https://business.ualberta.ca/Centres/~/media/business/Centres/WCER/Documents/Publications/155ElectronicApril2final.pdf
Now why does this matter. Well, there is the cash flow remitted to Ottawa and the earnings. One is an accounting book entry that Justin Trudeau's Liberal govt thinks is trivial, and the other is the cash which will be required to be sent up, regardless on the timing of amortization. I hope that is clear to you. If you look in the first link, the ability for Have Provinces to finance the rest of Canada's entitlements is capped due to a Fiscal Capacity Cap. Which is calculated based on how much revenue a province is generating, and then ahead of any regional or provincial allocations the Federal govt. will adjust disbursements to each province on an ad hoc basis according to how much Cash was taken in at tax time.
If you have fewer "have" provinces, then pro rata, more cash will need to be drawn from the other provincial balances to be equal. So in simple terms, the worse off Alberta gets, the more Alberta will gain net transfer of Cash and the less Cash will go to "have not" provinces, according to the formula. This ensures that provinces which gave excess cash to the underdeveloped provinces in good times, get it back in bad. So you can cheer on the destruction of Alberta all you like, but net-net? the Province of Alberta will by and large be taking cash from everyone else to facilitate its own revenue capabilities since Alberta must goal seek its earning potential to what it was in 2013 when the formula was audited for the 2015 year. No Ontario, or BC budget actually explains this small wrinkle, let alone the NDP or LPC platforms, which is why I felt it necesary to point out just how loving stupid "less that three' was acting this week. It would have been easy for "3" to do a bit of google, but he didn't, and I called him out for that.
What this implies is that the deficit spending numbers Justin and most Canadians think is the case for both their Federal action plans and their personal spending budgets are in reality massively underforcasted. To get around this divergence of accounting earnings/deficits and cash shortages, Justin's policy implies he will simply hike taxes over all Canadians in 3 years, just before he leaves Ottawa for reelection. As we know, spending today and assuming things get better "someday" is how Japan and most governments fail to grow out of their deficits. Its a viscous cycle of underaccounting for the deadweight loss in tax burdens, compounded with a slowdown in domestic spending for tax remittances which leads to perpetual under-performance of developed economies. Justin Trudeau, and many of his supporters who feel so smug in their understanding of federal economics gloss over this fact, which is why he is sarcastically called "king Justin". King Justin, much like most of the thread dwellers have very little understanding of tax revenue cash flows, and like the Emperor with no clothes, their arguments and comments look laughably naked to bond market watchers who have seen it all before in places such as Greece to Ontario. As all tax revenue assumptions and projections hinge upon the per capita income over the standardized history of the province and in the context of the federal transfer framework when those line items are calculated. Which is why when you break down Justin's math, he can not comprehend the 6.7 billion dollar bust in his 2015/16 numbers, which blows out to 18.9 billion by 2018 (when he would hike taxes)... which is about equal to the Alberta/SK transfers.
1 week into the election vote day, his most ardent supporters; proved by you lovable goons, still don't get it.
And you also required a full 1000+ word post to understand what 4 single blasts accomplished. So yes, it was worth my time to explain this, but it should have been apparent to you in my first response. Had half of you been as savvy with google as you claim to be on a day in- day out basis in Uncle Wong's then everything written above would have been intuitive for you. But it was not, and you all should feel equally as bad for your poor education on fiscal deficit impacts and weak rear end comprehension of Canada's debt situation. 3 years into this circlejerk and its still an echo chamber where goons can't decide how policy affects their life despite over 30(!) articles reposted from nearly every major economist, The Economist and trade journal on the planet covering this "bubble".
I agree
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Oct 8, 2015 06:41
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- ocrumsprug
- Sep 23, 2010
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by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
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1 week into the election vote day, his most ardent supporters; proved by you lovable goons, still don't get it.
See first you write a million words to explain something that is pretty self-explanatory, secondly you actually think Goons are pro-Trudeau showing that you pay very close attention to what is going on around you.
Bravo Turing machine, you will get there soon.
ocrumsprug fucked around with this message at 06:54 on Oct 8, 2015
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Oct 8, 2015 06:47
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- Kafka Esq.
- Jan 1, 2005
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"If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)
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I want you to know, Hal_2005, that I read every word, and I am reading your second PDF right now.
However, I wanted to say that that was a lot of words for "business is terrified of Notley" for the first section, and "lower fiscal outcomes in Alberta will affect the budgeting of equalization payments to other provinces" for the second. Especially if you're not even citing something. I don't really take the word of random spergs on the internet.
Your only concern is how business reacts to things, which is the kind of laughable myopic thinking that makes people think the bond market has some kind of mystical power. Sometimes, you actually have to have goals to win an election in a representative democracy. If you're so scared of Trudeau, rest assured that the money interest will have their say in writing the laws. They always do.
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Oct 8, 2015 10:21
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- Professor Shark
- May 22, 2012
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Only because I enjoy watching Canada threads go from smug circlejerks to full ad homin nerdrage in about 0 to 2 posts. Dropping a break inbetween each response to the above posters may be hard to follow, but we can fix that quickly:
To CI: That video link posted made a pretty good argument for a layman to understand how tax will affect repatriation of capital gains and cash flow. A badly designed tax code or even worse, a punitive tax code will encourage foreign market manufacturing which is leading to US & Canadian "hollowing out" of the NAFTA economy. It would seem your main gripe with Ichan after reading a few further posts is you are bitter he is an activist investor. Investing is politically agnostic. You cited Herbalife being a "ponzi", which is your opinion for citing the Ichan hate. Fair enough, but if you are bitter for Carl Ichan's activity in Herballife, then you must be bitter at Liberal stalwarts who also joined Carl Ichan on that trade like Prem Watsa, George Soros and and Dan Loeb. Right? I doubt you even knew your left wing heroes also invest for profit. Not every trade has to make sense and its important to discern the trade rationale from the very real message Ichan posted regarding the gridlock in Washington and the horrible tax planning being contemplated by the DNC currently as a solution to the lagging recovery in North America.
Moving on.
The thread tends to focus on absolute GDP, which is itself a loving horrible concept given seasonal and subjective adjustments to the trade and consumption figures for each province on the weekly rolls. I was pointing out to the autists who think Alberta is in a horrible position that they are correct. As I was correct in trying to explain this back in January of 2014, and in June of 2014, and in June 2015. The concept of a regieme change in the Canadian energy markets has led to about 48 billion in deferred capital, (more like 130b but whos counting for goons) and about 31 billion in market capital (equity value) which has left the economy. So yes, if you hand wave away the 14,000 white collar and support sector jobs which have been lost due to the downturn as purely a matter of crude oil commodity price collapse then one only needs to look at the sector underperformance of Canadian energy to its UK and US listed peers to understand Canadian energy, on a currency adjusted basis is lagging due to a capital exodus. A cursory google search confirms, I am correct that just like Ed Stelmach's AAR was statistically proven to be correlated to the collapse in shallow gas drilling investments, it is a well understood fact by both looking at aggregate market volumes in Canadian securities, the volume of Canadian marketed offerings, and Canadian exploration activity since Notley took office; their govt. has created serious damage to the province. ARC charts calculates nearly 80% of the current underperformance is directly correlated to Notley's government. So you can continue to argue Notley had zero effect on natural resource planning but she had an effect and it will be impacting the total GDP of Alberta for a few decades to come.
This being said, Alberta has outperformed nearly all its 'natural resource province' peers given the realized price for our exports when compared to OPEC and non-OPEC basket trading regimes. Canadian crude oil is one of the cheapest blends in the world now and despite a 57% discount to TI, and a collapse in export receipts revenues (in US dollar adjusted terms) of over 30%, we still managed to carry a government surplus at the Provincial level.
If you compare the magnitude of that collapse in both domestic value add, tax revenue and employment related VAT's, Alberta is outperforming all other regimes where the average unemployment rate has went from around 10% on average to over 50% in such places as Russia, Scotland etc etc. hydrocarbon generating provinces. Using this as the context, while Alberta is hosed, we are doing very well compared to peers. If we used the OPEC basket in our Alberta revenue projections and the OPEC unemployment numbers, Alberta would actually still be growing this year. So, on an apples to apples comparision, which is how the real world works, Dear Goons: Alberta's fiscal discipline is very good.
Which leads me to my final point:
The current confederation relies upon maintaining a consistent standard of care and living over all provinces. This requires allocating cash flow from provinces who are deemed "haves" to those who are deemed "have nots". You can look at the basic explanation at this handy link:
http://www.parl.gc.ca/Content/LOP/ResearchPublications/2008-20-e.htm
And if you want to learn a bit more, which is hard for goons to do at the best of times in D&D, you can go to:
https://business.ualberta.ca/Centres/~/media/business/Centres/WCER/Documents/Publications/155ElectronicApril2final.pdf
Now why does this matter. Well, there is the cash flow remitted to Ottawa and the earnings. One is an accounting book entry that Justin Trudeau's Liberal govt thinks is trivial, and the other is the cash which will be required to be sent up, regardless on the timing of amortization. I hope that is clear to you. If you look in the first link, the ability for Have Provinces to finance the rest of Canada's entitlements is capped due to a Fiscal Capacity Cap. Which is calculated based on how much revenue a province is generating, and then ahead of any regional or provincial allocations the Federal govt. will adjust disbursements to each province on an ad hoc basis according to how much Cash was taken in at tax time.
If you have fewer "have" provinces, then pro rata, more cash will need to be drawn from the other provincial balances to be equal. So in simple terms, the worse off Alberta gets, the more Alberta will gain net transfer of Cash and the less Cash will go to "have not" provinces, according to the formula. This ensures that provinces which gave excess cash to the underdeveloped provinces in good times, get it back in bad. So you can cheer on the destruction of Alberta all you like, but net-net? the Province of Alberta will by and large be taking cash from everyone else to facilitate its own revenue capabilities since Alberta must goal seek its earning potential to what it was in 2013 when the formula was audited for the 2015 year. No Ontario, or BC budget actually explains this small wrinkle, let alone the NDP or LPC platforms, which is why I felt it necesary to point out just how loving stupid "less that three' was acting this week. It would have been easy for "3" to do a bit of google, but he didn't, and I called him out for that.
What this implies is that the deficit spending numbers Justin and most Canadians think is the case for both their Federal action plans and their personal spending budgets are in reality massively underforcasted. To get around this divergence of accounting earnings/deficits and cash shortages, Justin's policy implies he will simply hike taxes over all Canadians in 3 years, just before he leaves Ottawa for reelection. As we know, spending today and assuming things get better "someday" is how Japan and most governments fail to grow out of their deficits. Its a viscous cycle of underaccounting for the deadweight loss in tax burdens, compounded with a slowdown in domestic spending for tax remittances which leads to perpetual under-performance of developed economies. Justin Trudeau, and many of his supporters who feel so smug in their understanding of federal economics gloss over this fact, which is why he is sarcastically called "king Justin". King Justin, much like most of the thread dwellers have very little understanding of tax revenue cash flows, and like the Emperor with no clothes, their arguments and comments look laughably naked to bond market watchers who have seen it all before in places such as Greece to Ontario. As all tax revenue assumptions and projections hinge upon the per capita income over the standardized history of the province and in the context of the federal transfer framework when those line items are calculated. Which is why when you break down Justin's math, he can not comprehend the 6.7 billion dollar bust in his 2015/16 numbers, which blows out to 18.9 billion by 2018 (when he would hike taxes)... which is about equal to the Alberta/SK transfers.
1 week into the election vote day, his most ardent supporters; proved by you lovable goons, still don't get it.
And you also required a full 1000+ word post to understand what 4 single blasts accomplished. So yes, it was worth my time to explain this, but it should have been apparent to you in my first response. Had half of you been as savvy with google as you claim to be on a day in- day out basis in Uncle Wong's then everything written above would have been intuitive for you. But it was not, and you all should feel equally as bad for your poor education on fiscal deficit impacts and weak rear end comprehension of Canada's debt situation. 3 years into this circlejerk and its still an echo chamber where goons can't decide how policy affects their life despite over 30(!) articles reposted from nearly every major economist, The Economist and trade journal on the planet covering this "bubble".
TAKE YOUR MEDICATION HAL
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Oct 8, 2015 11:40
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- Bloody Hedgehog
- Dec 12, 2003
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💥💥🤯💥💥
Gotta nuke something
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'In His House at Ki'Tsilano, Dead Hal waits dreaming,
yet He shall rise and His kingdom shall cover the Tarsands.'
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Oct 8, 2015 12:27
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- Dreylad
- Jun 19, 2001
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Does Hal dream of electric TPP?
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Oct 8, 2015 13:34
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- etalian
- Mar 20, 2006
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I want you to know, Hal_2005, that I read every word, and I am reading your second PDF right now.
However, I wanted to say that that was a lot of words for "business is terrified of Notley" for the first section, and "lower fiscal outcomes in Alberta will affect the budgeting of equalization payments to other provinces" for the second. Especially if you're not even citing something. I don't really take the word of random spergs on the internet.
Your only concern is how business reacts to things, which is the kind of laughable myopic thinking that makes people think the bond market has some kind of mystical power. Sometimes, you actually have to have goals to win an election in a representative democracy. If you're so scared of Trudeau, rest assured that the money interest will have their say in writing the laws. They always do.
Most right wing capitalists/WSJ types get meltdowns over center left/left success. They somehow think a right wing cowboy capitalism government is what's best for the economy.
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Oct 8, 2015 18:49
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- I would blow Dane Cook
- Dec 26, 2008
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Can't post for 14 hours!
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quote:
Multiple class actions brewing against 'sunset clawback' developers
Hundreds of off-the-plan purchasers across Sydney – who paid deposits two to three years ago – have had their contracts torn up and apartments placed back onto the market.
Claiming the developers are cashing in on record high property prices, the buyers are now taking action.
After an investigation by Domain into boutique Surry Hills block East Central where seven contracts were rescinded by the developer Ash Samadi and most of the units were then resold for up to 50 per cent more, it’s been revealed that at least three other new buildings in Sydney are also embroiled in similar controversy.
The developers of newly completed, or nearly completed, apartment blocks in Lidcombe, Wolli Creek and Hurstville have also rescinded contracts with off-the-plan buyers.
The Lidcombe building is on John Street, next door to a development by Auburn deputy mayor Salim Mehajer, who was also in the limelight for making changes to the sizes of apartments already bought off the plan.
Sydney lawyer Bernard Chiu says groups of buyers in two of the buildings served rescission notices are now preparing to launch class actions against their developers.
“[Sunset clawbacks are] happening everywhere now and it’s going to happen more and more as we go forward,” he said.
“Prices have been rising so much and developers are finding they can resell the apartments now for a lot more money.
“But it’s just so unfair to the people who put down deposits on them in good faith. It’s so unjust. For most of my career, I’ve been acting for developers but I agreed to act for some owners because people need to have confidence in the Australian property industry for it to thrive, and this situation is getting out of control.”
The first group of buyers, from East Central, is also considering a class action among their legal options. Migration consultant Tara Ende, 46, says it’s encouraging that others are now coming forward. “I think people should be pursuing their legal rights over this issue,” she says. “Hopefully the law will change in the future to prevent it happening. It’s good that others are now standing up to developers.”
Mr Samadi previously told Domain he chose to rescind contracts because costs had blown out through a change of builders, causing delays in the building’s completion.
Successful action against developers is never guaranteed. News of the potential class actions comes just a few days after one group of 34 buyers lost their NSW Supreme Court action against developers Kaymet Corporation – including developer William Metlej who was shot in the head by an alleged hitman in 2002 – for rescinding their contracts for apartments in a building in Wolli Creek.
“We’re pretty devastated and pissed off,” said one of the group, who asked not to be named. Now another group of residents are gearing up to fight a different Wolli Creek developer who did the same thing.
Upper house MP Ernest Wong recently held a meeting at NSW Parliament House after becoming alarmed by the number of people who had contacted him about apartments bought off the plan with contracts subsequently rescinded.
More than 160 people turned up.
The developers had activated the contracts’ sunset clauses, which come into effect when a building goes beyond its expected construction finish date (usually a year), to legally end the contracts, refund the deposits and claw back the apartments. If the market has gone up in the interim, they can then sell them for a tidy profit.
“This sunset clause issue is affecting many buyers,” Mr Wong said.
“I was hoping they can unite and join forces to express their views. I am collecting information and, if necessary, will make proposals in Parliament to amend the relevant legislation.”
Two years ago Mr Chiu won a case in the NSW Supreme Court for owners against the developers of a 300-unit block in Ultimo, West Apartments, who were “the pioneers” of sunset clawbacks, showing they’d unreasonablely delayed building works to go past the due date. He feels it’s a very worrying trend.
“I have friends in China who are hearing about this and they’re laughing because they can’t believe it,” he said. “They’re asking how this can happen in a country like Australia, which seems to have no rules or laws to protect consumers.”
Minister for Innovation and Better Regulation Victor Dominello is currently holding a public consultation on the issue, and is considering allowing only the purchaser to rescind, or requiring a vendor who terminates to pay damages equal to the difference on the sale price between the two contracts.
“There is growing concern about this,” he said. “Purchasing a property is a life-changing decision and we need to ensure consumers are protected against exploitative practices.”
But such moves will come too late for people like Maggie Lin. Her overseas-based parents bought her and her new husband a unit off-the-plan in East Central as a wedding gift in 2012. A few days before settlement, Mr Samadi, who’s now launching a new building next door, Botanik, rescinded the contract. She was distraught.
“It’s a cultural thing that parents give kids a property when they get married,” said Ms Lin, who’s just had a baby. “It is about emotional feelings to my parents. And if I return the money to them, we would lose 30 per cent straight away due to the fall in the Australian dollar, which would be more than a US$200,000 ($278,500) loss to my parents.”
As a result, Ms Lin pleaded to be allowed to keep the unit. Eventually, it was agreed – but only if she paid an extra $325,000. She did, feeling she had little choice.
She now plans to join Ms Ende and other angry purchasers in legal action against Mr Samadi.
A further rescinded buyer John Stewart placed a caveat on his apartment, preventing Mr Samadi from re-selling the property – and has now been threatened with legal action.
Mr Samadi has previously denied that he rescinded contracts in an effort to increase his revenue.
“I can’t deny the fact that the market has moved further up, but if my sole motivation was to increase my revenue [by charging a higher price now the building has nearly finished] I could have rescinded every single contract, but I didn’t. I just rescinded a few,” he said.
http://www.domain.com.au/news/multiple-class-actions-brewing-against-sunset-clawback-developers-20151009-gk3ewp/
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Oct 9, 2015 09:52
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- cowofwar
- Jul 30, 2002
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by Athanatos
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So it's a meaningless deposit on something that doesn't yet exist? Just straight up giving the developer money.
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Oct 9, 2015 12:29
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- Adbot
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ADBOT LOVES YOU
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May 10, 2024 03:12
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- cowofwar
- Jul 30, 2002
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by Athanatos
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Yeah basically given how the developer can cancel the contract in most case and just give your deposit back.
lolling at the lady who paid 325k extra to the developer just so she could keep the unit, a fool and their money are soon parted.
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Oct 9, 2015 17:38
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Oct 7, 2015 06:49
