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Seems like Bernie's a good bet on YES there, he hasn't been debate prepping and I think there's definitely more than a 1 in 4 chance that he loses to Lifelong Career Politician Hillary
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Oct 10, 2015 00:34
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EngineerSean posted:Seems like Bernie's a good bet on YES there, he hasn't been debate prepping and I think there's definitely more than a 1 in 4 chance that he loses to Lifelong Career Politician Hillary The caveat is that he still has low name recognition so even if he does bad it could be cancelled out by more people finding out about him.
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Oct 10, 2015 00:39
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Jewel Repetition posted:The caveat is that he still has low name recognition so even if he does bad it could be cancelled out by more people finding out about him. Maybe I should just buy YES on best polling bump and YES on worst polling bump in equal measures.
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Oct 10, 2015 00:48
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what are the chances that the draft kings stuff results in regulations/laws that effect predictitEngineerSean posted:Maybe I should just buy YES on best polling bump and YES on worst polling bump in equal measures. TeenageArchipelago has issued a correction as of 01:00 on Oct 10, 2015 |
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Oct 10, 2015 00:53
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Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:would doing that cost less than $1 per pair? because if so go for it. guaranteed money for the win it is less than a dollar but it's definitely not guaranteed. Hillary could be the worst debate bump and O'Malley could be the best, for instance.
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Oct 10, 2015 00:57
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EngineerSean posted:it is less than a dollar but it's definitely not guaranteed. Hillary could be the worst debate bump and O'Malley could be the best, for instance. oh poo poo, you are right. I am tired. I should sleep and not give advice.
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Oct 10, 2015 00:59
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District Selectman posted:Seems like it's free money to take NO on the biggest loser of the debate, if you bet Chaffee, O Malley or Webb. They're barely above 0%, they have no room to fall. Like, Clinton or Sanders could decrease due to polling error and it's worse than their maximum fall. The safest bet is betting No on Biden across the board, followed by voting no on both Webb and Chafee across the board. O'Malley, Bernie, and Hillary all have reasonable cases to be made for either good or bad things to happen, but O'Malley is only polling at .7 so he doesn't really have anywhere to fall. Thinking about going Yes on both Hillary and O'Malley for biggest increase. Hillary is going to come out and get positive press, replacing all the email idiocy for a while. O'Malley is going to try and get people to talk about him, most likely by being the guy on the left who attacks both Hillary and Bernie. Since he doesn't have anywhere to fall, his numbers have little else to do but rise, and just a few points may be enough to win the bet. Bernie is going to say things that we like, and things that are correct. I don't trust the American people to reward him for such. Especially since O'Malley is going to be trying to prove himself the real leftest while being better for the optics conscious and giving the anti-Hillary crowd a guy to cheer. As long as O'Malley doesn't pull out his guitar and try and sing some answers, he'll probably get more out of the debate in the immediate short term, which is what the bet is on. Webb might have had a chance at biggest increase about 2 or 3 cycles ago when people gave a poo poo about Reagan Democrats and their bullshit.
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Oct 10, 2015 03:44
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So it looks like the linked markets got pushed back another week. Now the plan is for the Obama Job Approval market on the 16th. Really not seeing how the trading volume of the last week should be the reason to do it.
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Oct 10, 2015 04:54
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EngineerSean posted:Maybe I should just buy YES on best polling bump and YES on worst polling bump in equal measures. Damnit don't give away my strategies they are copyright
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Oct 10, 2015 05:05
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EngineerSean posted:Seems like Bernie's a good bet on YES there, he hasn't been debate prepping and I think there's definitely more than a 1 in 4 chance that he loses to Lifelong Career Politician Hillary He could bomb the debate and still get a better "bump" due to the way it's measured. Have fun refreshing poll results at 8am to cover your rear end, I definitely did. No, I'm not bitter at all.
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Oct 10, 2015 06:30
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Vox Nihili posted:He could bomb the debate and still get a better "bump" due to the way it's measured. Have fun refreshing poll results at 8am to cover your rear end, I definitely did. No, I'm not bitter at all. I've read about the woes people have from betting on polls and I really don't have time to refresh the results to ensure my win of $50 so I'll just have to close my eyes and hope for the best. I do have a sell order at 98 on everything which is kind of a hedge against weird poll results.
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Oct 10, 2015 14:11
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Thanks to team Biden, you can still buy into him not showing up for the debate in the mid 80s. Something that he has already said he is not doing. Other than a long shot on Chafee/Webb winning/losing/most speaking time, it's the biggest money maker in the debate group.
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Oct 10, 2015 20:37
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Someone is still buying up Walker shares in RNOM 
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Oct 10, 2015 21:04
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Necc0 posted:Someone is still buying up Walker shares in RNOM It's just a matter of time until he and Perry unsuspend their campaigns. They'll be back when Mitt returns to save the party.
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Oct 10, 2015 21:24
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:48 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 11, 2015 03:53
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Necc0 posted:Someone is still buying up Walker shares in RNOM Actually, I think that's just because Yes is so low that when you buy NO at 98 you're also buying YES at 2. There's probably so little day to day trading that it resets to 0 fairly often, and the prices always show movement from the YES bet. Unrelated, I love the comment in the O'Malley winning the polls section that tells everyone to buy Sanders NO, because it's the same thing as buying O'Malley YES and really every other outcome other then YES Sanders. You'd be a fool to do anything but buy NO Sanders, even if it does lessen your risk/provide an higher rate of return on your bet should, for example, O'Malley, or especially Chafee, somehow pull out the win. Gyges has issued a correction as of 04:43 on Oct 11, 2015 |
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Oct 11, 2015 04:39
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Never change Bidenites. Never change.quote:This isn't news. Biden's been SAYING he's not going to be debating for a while. I think he may be setting the expectation he won't be there so there's the maximum surprise when he announces just before the debate. I think he's been planning to debate all along and saying he's not is a strategy so he can keep his opponents from prepping for him and have the spin that he performed well without much preparation (even though I think there's a good chance he actually is prepping).
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Oct 11, 2015 04:57
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Fantastic_Mr_Fox posted:what are the chances that the draft kings stuff results in regulations/laws that effect predictit Probably not too much, at least not in the near term (i.e. before the 2016 election). The only clear change that I could see would be to close the markets at x time (1 day? 1 hour?) before the actual event end date, so you can't hoover up cheap guaranteed money in the time when the market is open but the event has been resolved. It wouldn't change a McCarthy-type withdrawal situation, but would prevent trading on polling results that are already a lock. At that time the predictive markets aren't super useful sources of information, which in theory is the point of a predictive market run by a university. At any rate, I'm not to worried about the Draft Kings / Fan Duel thing.
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Oct 11, 2015 09:44
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Gyges posted:Actually, I think that's just because Yes is so low that when you buy NO at 98 you're also buying YES at 2. There's probably so little day to day trading that it resets to 0 fairly often, and the prices always show movement from the YES bet. Yeah that's not at all how it works. If someone buys no shares its either an already existing share that someone else is unloading or it creates the yes but someone had to be on the other side purchasing that yes. Either way for yes to go up someone has to be buying it. Also it doesn't reset to zero every day, that'd be insane. The daily change resets to 'NC' or 'No Change' every day. ALSO I've been keeping an eye on it ever since he dropped out. Immediately plummeted to .01 then immediately rebounded to .02. Ever since then it's slowly gone up to .04
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Oct 11, 2015 15:21
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Gyges posted:Thanks to team Biden, you can still buy into him not showing up for the debate in the mid 80s. Something that he has already said he is not doing. Other than a long shot on Chafee/Webb winning/losing/most speaking time, it's the biggest money maker in the debate group. The Yes contract is in the 6 or 7 range. I bought some up to hedge my Biden No position. So low there is hardly any downside. I don't think he's going to run, but assuming he jumps in the race (in the next few days) the CNN debate Yes is going to massively surge.
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Oct 11, 2015 20:02
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Zeta Taskforce posted:The Yes contract is in the 6 or 7 range. I bought some up to hedge my Biden No position. So low there is hardly any downside. I don't think he's going to run, but assuming he jumps in the race (in the next few days) the CNN debate Yes is going to massively surge. The debate's in like 53 hours, though.
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Oct 11, 2015 20:22
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I think 2c is a steal for Biden to be the big loser of the debate.
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Oct 11, 2015 21:52
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EngineerSean posted:I think 2c is a steal for Biden to be the big loser of the debate. Only if you flip it before people realize that rules say if Biden doesn't show, NO wins. I bought at 2 and sold at 6, then bought some No on Biden losing. Edit: If you can get in low on Biden at 20% October 31, there's likely to be an increase in the price after he doesn't show up at the debate and a further increase/spike should he still not declare or officially pass on running in the next week or so. This is a definite flip though, because there's no telling what RCP polls will show at the end of October, whether Biden is in or out. If he's out and they still show his last average, there's a decent chance it's at 20 or above since it looks like there's just one poll keeping his average down at the moment. Gyges has issued a correction as of 23:00 on Oct 11, 2015 |
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Oct 11, 2015 22:46
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Gyges posted:Only if you flip it before people realize that rules say if Biden doesn't show, NO wins. fffffffff edit: thanks for saving me some cash EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 00:27 on Oct 12, 2015 |
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Oct 12, 2015 00:24
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Always read the rules. Especially if you see something that looks like a really sweet deal.
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Oct 12, 2015 00:37
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Someone's currently making a run on Biden NO. For the amount of shares out there, there's surprisingly thin ice between .45 and .50. This may swing hard? I really have no idea.
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Oct 12, 2015 01:08
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Is everyone ready for the debate? The BIDEN.CNNDEBATE NO market has tightened up quite a bit, but there's still good money to be made if you have the cash to max out the contract on that market. (Or, better yet, snap up some BIDEN.CNNDEBATE YES so if Biden enters the debate, no doubt appearing in a blast of diamond white light, you can gloat while I mourn the demise of my BIDENRUN shares.)
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Oct 12, 2015 21:29
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:48 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 12, 2015 23:13
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Why are the Yes shares on Chafee, O'Malley, and Webb having the worst polling impact so high? None of them are even polling at 1%, normal flux of Clinton and Sanders is greater than their total. Super extra why is Lincln Chafee, currently sitting at .2% selling at the 3rd highest for yes at the moment? At least there exists an exceedingly unlikely but existant scenario where whoever is still buying up shares on Walker becoming the GOP nominee comes out ahead. I'm not sure it's even mathematically possible for Chafee to have the worst poll performance.
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Oct 12, 2015 23:53
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Well, it's possible. If every candidate rises in the polls then it's measured by whoever rises the least. Very unlikely but it can happen.
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Oct 13, 2015 00:54
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:LOL CNN is touting and showing pix that it has a 6th podium on hand just in case Biden wants to waltz in, declare his candidacy, and show up to debate at 5:59:59 tomorrow in Las Vegas. Lol.
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Oct 13, 2015 01:48
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Gyges posted:Why are the Yes shares on Chafee, O'Malley, and Webb having the worst polling impact so high? None of them are even polling at 1%, normal flux of Clinton and Sanders is greater than their total. Super extra why is Lincln Chafee, currently sitting at .2% selling at the 3rd highest for yes at the moment? I wouldn't put too much meaning in these bottom tier Democrats numbers; they are illiquid, thinly traded and have almost no shares outstanding. As of right now there were 2 shares traded on Chafee today, 1 for O'Mally (which was me, I sold one at 96 so I could play in other markets. I'm going to hold onto my other 9) and exactly 0 traded for Webb. I can see why YES for Walker has value too. No one is amassing yes shares based on some unlikely scenario where he gets back in or wins a brokered convention. This is thinly traded too. The reason it has value is that there is $12,000 in value tied up in NO shares and they are hard to sell. There is a limited number of people who will want to take on ownership at 99 cents and sit on it for who knows how long contract end date 9-15-2016. Heck, probably no one. We are talking money market level rates of return. The vast majority of the trades that will happen over the next 11 months will be holders of NO selling them at 97, 96, 95, etc to other traders who want NO and don't mind having their money tied up forever. This isn't a poll that will be decided in 2 weeks. When you factor in time, the value of a Walker NO probably really is 95 or 96 which is why the value of a Walker YES really is 4 or 5.
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Oct 13, 2015 02:06
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CNN is helping all the Biden no bros make a lot of money. Some site called pivit has his chances of running at loving 86%.
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Oct 13, 2015 02:07
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nachos posted:CNN is helping all the Biden no bros make a lot of money. Some site called pivit has his chances of running at loving 86%. We haven't made it yet. Place your bets goons: assuming he doesn't run how long will it take for BIDEN.RUN to drop below 10% Will it stay afloat to the end of the year?
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Oct 13, 2015 02:17
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Necc0 posted:We haven't made it yet. Judging by the tone of the comments, that'd just be part of Biden's master plan. Lulling all the suckers into a false sense of security, the BAM, Diamond Joe's in the White House.
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Oct 13, 2015 03:05
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I can see why YES for Walker has value too. No one is amassing yes shares based on some unlikely scenario where he gets back in or wins a brokered convention. This is thinly traded too. The reason it has value is that there is $12,000 in value tied up in NO shares and they are hard to sell. There is a limited number of people who will want to take on ownership at 99 cents and sit on it for who knows how long contract end date 9-15-2016. Heck, probably no one. We are talking money market level rates of return. The vast majority of the trades that will happen over the next 11 months will be holders of NO selling them at 97, 96, 95, etc to other traders who want NO and don't mind having their money tied up forever. This isn't a poll that will be decided in 2 weeks. When you factor in time, the value of a Walker NO probably really is 95 or 96 which is why the value of a Walker YES really is 4 or 5. I think there's a flaw to this math. As you said, the main reason why Walker NO might be 95 is because your money is locked up for a year. However, I don't believe that actually makes Walker YES have a value of 5, I think that makes the value of the entire contract 95. I know that every NO share has a YES share to balance it out but if nobody's buying at 5, the value isn't 5, it's just people selling NO at a slight loss here.
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Oct 13, 2015 03:28
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edit: nevermind
Necc0 has issued a correction as of 03:50 on Oct 13, 2015 |
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Oct 13, 2015 03:38
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Necc0 posted:We haven't made it yet. Once filing deadlines come up people will crack. Until then they will buy any and every excuse. Things are looking thin down to 38c on No, might be time to pick up some more. 
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Oct 13, 2015 03:56
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God that's tempting. I told myself I've already put enough into that market though. But $.38.... ughhughughguhghughgu
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Oct 13, 2015 04:00
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:48 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 13, 2015 04:03
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