Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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Metapod: Mar 18, 2012

Full Metal Jackass posted:

ESPN wont let me drop Peyton Manning for Blake Bortles. This is bullshit I want to shed this noodle arm.

Get owned

# ? Oct 14, 2015 02:28

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 08:16

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Full Metal Jackass posted:

ESPN wont let me drop Peyton Manning for Blake Bortles. This is bullshit I want to shed this noodle arm.

League manager can override the undroppables settings but maybe you should see if you can trade peyton? Maybe peyton plus a guy for a guy, to free up a slot.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 02:28

Big Ol Marsh Pussy: Jan 7, 2007

# ? Oct 14, 2015 02:30

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

Our League of Posts here on SA is hosted on nfl.com, which gives out a couple of awards automatically each week. I liked this feature when I found out about it.

Now I really like this feature.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 02:31

Enforka: Dec 24, 2004

Thank god I have the #1 QB in the National Football League, Andy Dalton, on my team.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 02:33

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Evaluate in the dark, cold vacuum of space:

Lacy + Cooks <-> Hyde + Evans

# ? Oct 14, 2015 02:34

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Lacy + Cooks because Lacy's situation is the only one that isn't a disaster.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 02:40

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Thanks. ^

Frustrated posted:

I feel like we need a fantasy football bitching thread.

I play in a 14 man, .5 ppr league with my friends from college. This league is very competitive, and there is a good amount of money at stake. I have the 2nd most points scored and I am 1-4. The only week I won, I scored the most points. In three of my losses I was second in points, only to lose to the highest point scorer for the week. My team has somehow allowed 635.7 points through 5 weeks with standard size rosters. The next highest points against is 531.2. The league leader at 5-0 has somehow allowed only 415.2. He would be 0-5 with my schedule.

gently caress this dumb game.

My buddy did this thing last year where at the end of the season he replayed every team against every other team. The results were that how your opponent played had more of an influence on W:L than how your team played.

Yes this is a big dumb game at times. It's great when you're winning but is frustrating nonsense when you're not.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 02:42

Dren: Jan 5, 2001; Pillbug

QB streaming this week? Available in my league are Kaep, Tannehill, Bradford, Cutler, Fitzpatrick, Hoyer, Manuel, McCown, Hasselbeck

# ? Oct 14, 2015 03:10

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Dren posted:

QB streaming this week? Available in my league are Kaep, Tannehill, Bradford, Cutler, Fitzpatrick, Hoyer, Manuel, McCown, Hasselbeck

Not mccown vs Denver. I could see cutler, fitz, or tannehill being decent. If you roll with EJ Manuel and he puts up points you'll look like a genius.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 03:15

89: Feb 24, 2006; #worldchamps

Dude in my big money league is offering:

His:
Antonio Brown

for

My:
Calvin Johnson
Jeremy Hill
Sam Bradford

I've got Brady, so I won't start Bradford. Antonio >>>> Megatron despite the next couple of weeks ahead without Ben. And Jeremy Hill....well, let's just say I've got LeVeon, Gore, Blount, and Charmander West.

Mash?

# ? Oct 14, 2015 03:23

Dren: Jan 5, 2001; Pillbug

BigFactory posted:

Not mccown vs Denver. I could see cutler, fitz, or tannehill being decent. If you roll with EJ Manuel and he puts up points you'll look like a genius.

I'm leaning Kaep at the moment. Baltimore's secondary is horrendous.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 03:24

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

89 posted:

Dude in my big money league is offering:

His:
Antonio Brown

for

My:
Calvin Johnson
Jeremy Hill
Sam Bradford

I've got Brady, so I won't start Bradford. Antonio >>>> Megatron despite the next couple of weeks ahead without Ben. And Jeremy Hill....well, let's just say I've got LeVeon, Gore, Blount, and Charmander West.

Mash?

Yes, do it. One of those guys is droppable and the other is trying his hardest to get there.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 03:32

Michael Corleone: Mar 30, 2011; by VideoGames

The last page of this thread just makes me sadder about dropping CJ2K, who I got as an FA for a WW or FA, don't remember. I should just draft, set my lineups for the rest of the season and never check in again.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 04:16

Fat Lowtax: Nov 9, 2008; "I'm willing to pay up to $1200 for a big anime titty"

Fuckkkk a hard trade decision. Got offered Demaryius and Jimmy Graham for Doug Martin and Richard Rodgers (standard).

It's a mash on name value but I've been super high on Doug all year. I'm the Sanders owner too so maybe that's too much reliance on sad old man arm? Jimmy might have huge untapped upside and finish like TE3 but the wire has Clay, JT and ASJ - no one's hoarding.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 05:36

Epi Lepi: Oct 29, 2009; You can hear the voice
Telling you to Love
It's the voice of MK Ultra
And you're doing what it wants

89 posted:

Dude in my big money league is offering:

His:
Antonio Brown

for

My:
Calvin Johnson
Jeremy Hill
Sam Bradford

I've got Brady, so I won't start Bradford. Antonio >>>> Megatron despite the next couple of weeks ahead without Ben. And Jeremy Hill....well, let's just say I've got LeVeon, Gore, Blount, and Charmander West.

Mash?

I don't believe you're making even 25% of these trades. I think you make poo poo up and ask for advice so we can go wow this dude trades good and a lot. Or you're in like 12 magic leagues where people actually trade.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 05:42

365 Nog Hogger: Jan 19, 2008; by Shine

Fat Lowtax posted:

Fuckkkk a hard trade decision. Got offered Demaryius and Jimmy Graham for Doug Martin and Richard Rodgers (standard).

It's a mash on name value but I've been super high on Doug all year. I'm the Sanders owner too so maybe that's too much reliance on sad old man arm? Jimmy might have huge untapped upside and finish like TE3 but the wire has Clay, JT and ASJ - no one's hoarding.

Well, how are you sorted for RBs? Would you be playing Martin every week? Because I doubt you're benching Demaryius or Graham.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 05:45

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

Epi Lepi posted:

I don't believe you're making even 25% of these trades. I think you make poo poo up and ask for advice so we can go wow this dude trades good and a lot. Or you're in like 12 magic leagues where people actually trade.

There's a good chance he's playing with morons. I made the following trades:

2014
Sent Sanders (6) + Bradshaw
Received LVB (8)

(won championship)

and

2013
Sent Zac Stacy (lol)+J Cameron+D Moore
Received AP (1)

(knocked out in semi)

This is in a keeper league...

e: something something trade with Suave Fedora (<3 you bro)

# ? Oct 14, 2015 05:52

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

If you're trading for Jimmy Graham you're trading for name value.

Bevell is a loving moron who can't do anything except hand off to Lynch, have Wilson run around or pass it to Doug Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse. If you're any other player you can go ahead and get hosed.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 05:53

District Selectman: Jan 22, 2012; by Lowtax

How much FAAB for Charcandrick West? I'm going to drop $50+ methinks

# ? Oct 14, 2015 05:56

Jagwires: May 31, 2009

In a standard non-ppr league, I have RBs D. Freeman, R. Hillman, CJ Spiller, and Tevon Coleman. I go all in on C. West on waiver right? We use FAAB and I have 43/100 left.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 06:08

Fat Lowtax: Nov 9, 2008; "I'm willing to pay up to $1200 for a big anime titty"

365 Nog Hogger posted:

Well, how are you sorted for RBs? Would you be playing Martin every week? Because I doubt you're benching Demaryius or Graham.

WRs Green and Sanders, RBs Peterson and Gurley so I guess I'd be flexing both Martin/Thomas. It's a weird spot. I think it's only the Sanders/Thomas factor that's holding me back. I'm getting covarianced

# ? Oct 14, 2015 06:11

District Selectman: Jan 22, 2012; by Lowtax

gently caress it I'm going $75 for West. See if I regret this in the morning, I may have been drinking

# ? Oct 14, 2015 06:26

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Charcandrick West is going to be a stinking pile of poo and you all are going to regret your decisions.

But so is Knile Davis so there's no good answer here.

That whole offense is going to go to poo poo.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 06:46

89: Feb 24, 2006; #worldchamps

Epi Lepi posted:

I don't believe you're making even 25% of these trades. I think you make poo poo up and ask for advice so we can go wow this dude trades good and a lot. Or you're in like 12 magic leagues where people actually trade.

Oh, they're real, lol. You just have to play with your friends and know their emotions about real football, fantasy football, and alcohol

quote:

Main League - 10 man - with my closest friends
Record: 2-3 (7th place out of 10)

Traded: Gronk, Big Rape, Mike Evans, Jonathan Stewart, Justin Houston
Received: LeVeon Bell, Randall Cobb, Carson Palmer, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
He was drunk after his Colts got embarrassed by the Jets

Traded: Golden Tate, Donte Moncrief
Received: Emmanuel Sanders, Shane Vereen
He was drunk

I loved this gem:

10/4 - 11:02 am Sunday
Traded: Karlos Williams, Darren Sproles, Adam Jones
Received: Calvin Johnson, Harrison Smith
He had Lynch and Shady and no backups, both were out

10/4 - 11:06 am Sunday
Traded: Frank Gore, Calvin Johnson
Received: Gronk
He only got Gronk for trading purposes because he's a Colts fan and his RBs and WRs all died. I was talking to both of them without either knowing.

Week 1 lineup:
QB: Big Rape
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Golden Tate
WR: Nelson Agholor
RB: Frank Gore
RB: Jonathan Stewart
TE: GRONK
DB: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
DL: Mario Williams
LB: Justin Houston
LB: Khalil Mack (before he could be used as a DL)

Week 6 lineup
QB: Palmer (or Cam)
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: Randall Cobb
WR: Emmanuel Sanders
RB: LeVeon Bell
RB: Arian Foster
TE: GRONK
DB: Harrison Smith
DL: Khalil Mack
LB: Preston Brown
LB: Anthony Barr

quote:

Work League - 10 man- (consists of maybe 65% of the league that knows what it's doing)
Record: 3-2 (4th place out of 10)

Traded: CJ Anderson, Frank Gore, Stevie Johnson, Vincent Jackson (Week 2)
Received: LeVeon Bell
My boss was on autodraft and hates the Steelers and ended up with both Jordy Nelson & Kelvin Benjamin

Traded: Gio Bernard, Karlos Williams, Tyler Eifert, Allen Robinson
Received: Gronk

Traded: Emmanuel Sanders, Sammy Watkins, Chris Johnson
Received: Randall Cobb, TY Hilton, Latavius Murray
Dude is freaking out that he's 1-4

Week 1 lineup:
QB: Tannehill
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Emmanuel Sanders
RB: CJ Anderson
RB: Frank Gore
TE: Delanie Walker
W/R: Jordan Matthews

Week 6 lineup
QB: Bradford (I have T-Mobile)
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Randall Cobb
RB: LeVeon Bell
RB: Arian Foster
TE: GRONK
W/R: TY Hilton

quote:

Big Money League ($100 buy in) - 12 man, most know what they are doing
Record: 3-2 (5th place out of 10)

Traded: Stafford
Recieved: Ebron

Traded: Arian Foster, Andre Johnson
Received: Jeremy Hill, Mike Wallace
Regret this one in hindsight, but seemed great Week 3

Traded: AJ Green, Ebron, Dez Bryant (WW pickup)
Received: Calvin Johnson, Tyler Eifert
Got to keep AJ Green for his stupid 45 point game and then the trade went into effect that next week, lol

Traded: Calvin Johnson, Jeremy Hill, Sam Bradford
Received: Antonio Brown
His QBs died, I sold him on Megatron's soft schedule going forward, and the Antonio situation

Week 1 lineup:
QB: Brady
WR: AJ Green
WR: Andre Johnson
RB: Frank Gore
RB: Darren Sproles
TE: Jordan Cameron
W/R: John Brown

Week 6 lineup (Bell off suspension, I ACTUALLY DRAFTED HIM in this league)
QB: Brady
WR: Antonio Brown
WR: John Brown
RB: LeVeon Bell
RB: Frank Gore
TE: Tyler Eifert
W/R: Charmander West (or Blount)

I also traded off Aaron Rodgers & Eddie Lacy for Tom Brady and Gronk in the Cheating for Charity league. But, that's because my ex who was a Packers fan broke up with me cause she dumb as hell.

So, I joined the Dark Side :allears:

89 fucked around with this message at 06:56 on Oct 14, 2015

# ? Oct 14, 2015 06:49

365 Nog Hogger: Jan 19, 2008; by Shine

Fat Lowtax posted:

WRs Green and Sanders, RBs Peterson and Gurley so I guess I'd be flexing both Martin/Thomas. It's a weird spot. I think it's only the Sanders/Thomas factor that's holding me back. I'm getting covarianced

If you like Martin I'd say keep him then, DT and Sanders are roughly the same player this year and the difference at TE functionally is :shrug:

. This trade is too fair.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 07:22

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Dren posted:

I'm leaning Kaep at the moment. Baltimore's secondary is horrendous.

So is Kaepernick.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 10:00

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Spoeank posted:

Charcandrick West is going to be a stinking pile of poo and you all are going to regret your decisions.

But so is Knile Davis so there's no good answer here.

That whole offense is going to go to poo poo.

I'm going to start West over Jeremy Hill or CJ Anderson this week. Low expectations.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 10:03

dat one portagee: Dec 6, 2006; WAT DOIN BUG?

I've got a flex spot to fill:

Charmander, Keenan allen, woodhead, or Lamar Miller.

GB's defense is pretty good, so I'm not sure about allen or woodhead. Woodhead might be the safer option between those two. West is a gamble, and who the gently caress knows if the dolphins ever figure out their poo poo and figure out how to get Miller involved.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 12:24

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

old dog child posted:

There's a good chance he's playing with morons. I made the following trades:

2014
Sent Sanders (6) + Bradshaw
Received LVB (8)

(won championship)

and

2013
Sent Zac Stacy (lol)+J Cameron+D Moore
Received AP (1)

(knocked out in semi)

This is in a keeper league...

e: something something trade with Suave Fedora (<3 you bro)

you are the king of assholery but don't think for a second that I'm not grinning like a bastard everytime you roster JHill and he gives you micropenis points

# ? Oct 14, 2015 12:24

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Spoeank posted:

Charcandrick West is going to be a stinking pile of poo and you all are going to regret your decisions.

But so is Knile Davis so there's no good answer here.

That whole offense is going to go to poo poo.

If this doesn't elevate Kelce's game then I will officially lower my participation in the Zeus Hype Train from "irrationally exuberant" to just "spirited."

# ? Oct 14, 2015 12:25

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

dat one portagee posted:

I've got a flex spot to fill:

Charmander, Keenan allen, woodhead, or Lamar Miller.

GB's defense is pretty good, so I'm not sure about allen or woodhead. Woodhead might be the safer option between those two. West is a gamble, and who the gently caress knows if the dolphins ever figure out their poo poo and figure out how to get Miller involved.

Scoring settings would be critical here.

but

GB's weakness is the ground game. They give up the 5th most rushing yards. Their strength is their secondary, where they are 4rth best at allowing the lowest passing yards per game. So Keenan is out in this scenario. But where does this put Woodhead? As the passing-down RB, I think it puts him in a good spot. He's not going to be catching passes deep into the secondary, he's going to be catching at the line and around the LBs. I can't say for sure how well GB's LB are playing because I don't watch them all that much, but I think both Woodhead and Melvin Gordon will be used a lot - Gordon to take advantage of the soft rush D and Woodhead to spread the field with his versatile toolset.

Miller is best left on the bench until we see how the new MIA staff implements him. His arrow is pointing up, but I wouldn't roster him unless I had no other choice.

Which leaves Charmander. I can totally see Reid using him up and down the field, and pulling him at the goal-line for Knile. Why? Because he's a loving walrus, with quivering whiskers and all. He's not a bad spot start, but I would have to go with the proven commodity in Woodhead here.

Suave Fedora fucked around with this message at 12:36 on Oct 14, 2015

# ? Oct 14, 2015 12:27

BigFactory: Sep 17, 2002

Is Romo going to play again this season?

# ? Oct 14, 2015 13:11

Thwomp: Apr 10, 2003; BA-DUHHH; Grimey Drawer

I'd love to see what other leagues paid for Charmander. Guy in my league spent $42 ($100 total budget) on his successful bid.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 13:30

thrawn527: Mar 27, 2004; Thrawn/Pellaeon
Studying the art of terrorists
To keep you safe

I'm in a 12 team league where most players hold 2 QBs (even though they only need to start one). As a result, my late pick of Matthew Stafford is killing me. I'm also holding onto Alex Smith, but is Stafford (or Smith for that matter) droppable for any of these for RoS?

It's pretty bleak out there.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 13:32

Rick Grimes: Oct 12, 2005; We Are The Walking Dead

Thinking of offering this trade in my 12-man league. Guy only has 3 RBs, and Charles is dead. Going to offer Ingram and maybe Garcon for his Cobb. Don't know if it's that fair, but hoping to buy low on Cobb/prey on Charles being hurt.

Current rosters:

Me:
Dalton
Forte, Ingram, Yeldon, CJA, Karlos, CMike
Cooper, Keenan Allen, Garcon, Baldwin
Julius, Reed

Him:
Brees, Cam
Charles, J. Randle, A. Williams
Cobb, Fitz, R. Randle, White, Michael Floyd
Bennett, Witten

Should I lowball with just Ingram first? Or should I stay put?

E: .5 PPR and added CMike just in case.

Rick Grimes fucked around with this message at 16:06 on Oct 14, 2015

# ? Oct 14, 2015 13:49

dat one portagee: Dec 6, 2006; WAT DOIN BUG?

Suave Fedora posted:

Scoring settings would be critical here.

but

GB's weakness is the ground game. They give up the 5th most rushing yards. Their strength is their secondary, where they are 4rth best at allowing the lowest passing yards per game. So Keenan is out in this scenario. But where does this put Woodhead? As the passing-down RB, I think it puts him in a good spot. He's not going to be catching passes deep into the secondary, he's going to be catching at the line and around the LBs. I can't say for sure how well GB's LB are playing because I don't watch them all that much, but I think both Woodhead and Melvin Gordon will be used a lot - Gordon to take advantage of the soft rush D and Woodhead to spread the field with his versatile toolset.

Miller is best left on the bench until we see how the new MIA staff implements him. His arrow is pointing up, but I wouldn't roster him unless I had no other choice.

Which leaves Charmander. I can totally see Reid using him up and down the field, and pulling him at the goal-line for Knile. Why? Because he's a loving walrus, with quivering whiskers and all. He's not a bad spot start, but I would have to go with the proven commodity in Woodhead here.

sorry, standard scoring. But yeah, that makes sense.

# ? Oct 14, 2015 13:53