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Boon posted:Remember all the "soul searching" and reform/outreach that happened after the last two elections? Neither do I, this is going to be fun. Me a year ago: Hmm, I'm sure that the most electable candidate won't get tanked by hugging the President.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:05
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UberJew posted:paging fade5 to the thread to answer this in detail I'll just borrow a post by DarkCrawler that sums up the Middle East right now pretty drat good: DarkCrawler posted:Ok, so thus far we have: -50% more Putin in Syria -The Gulf Countries/Turkey giving the Syrian rebels (including the al-Nusra front/literal al-Qaeda) a free-for-all on TOWs (aka Wire-Guided Anti-Tank Missiles) -The US knowingly blowing up a MSF hospital in Afghanistan -Troops staying in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future -Continued violence and unrest in Turkey between the Turkish forces and the PKK -A potential Kurdish Civil war in Iraqi Kurdistan -The US openly arming a socialist/communist-linked group while spitting in Erdogan's face, a stunning reversal of the normal US Middle East policy So how do you think it's going? 
fade5 fucked around with this message at 22:16 on Oct 15, 2015 |
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Oct 15, 2015 22:07
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zoux posted:Nah. Losing three in a row would be (and is going to be) super embarrassing for the party. Man, if they're kept out of the White House for four terms the federal bench will be as blue a Duke home game. I'm sure there are a number of other Independent Agencies whose leaders are appointed by the White House too. Yellen may tire of running the Fed by then too. That's a big loving deal. The GOP may run most of the states but that much time out of the White House would have large knock on effects.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:08
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Rygar201 posted:Man, if they're kept out of the White House for four terms the federal bench will be as blue a Duke home game. I'm sure there are a number of other Independent Agencies whose leaders are appointed by the White House too. Yellen may tire of running the Fed by then too. That's a big loving deal. The GOP may run most of the states but that much time out of the White House would have large knock on effects. It is which is why it's important that the next president is a Democrat no matter how much a Wall Street shill she is. Also I don't think she is but you Bernie people better hold your fuckin' noses and pull that lever next November.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:09
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Rygar201 posted:Man, if they're kept out of the White House for four terms the federal bench will be as blue a Duke home game. I'm sure there are a number of other Independent Agencies whose leaders are appointed by the White House too. Yellen may tire of running the Fed by then too. That's a big loving deal. The GOP may run most of the states but that much time out of the White House would have large knock on effects. If the Republicans lose this presidential election but don't lose control of states, I expect them to finally start gerrymandering the Presidency in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan for 2020.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:09
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evilweasel posted:If the Republicans lose this presidential election but don't lose control of states, I expect them to finally start gerrymandering the Presidency in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan for 2020. What, like splitting EVs?
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Oct 15, 2015 22:10
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If the Repubs keep massively loving up as they seem to be doing now and lose the election by a landslide (I'm thinking Trump vs Hillary here), could there be a greater than expected loss of senate/house seats on their end? Or are voters and gerrymandering still too entrenched on the local level? You'd think that some would theoretically be disgusted enough by Trump to at least consider voting independent, but maybe I'm just an idiot.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:12
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zoux posted:What, like splitting EVs? Going to a formula that the winner of each congressional district gets one EV, and the winner of the state gets +2 EVs. In gerrymandered blue states that will mean that the Republican will lose the state and get a majority of the EVs. It's been proposed but not passed in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, and what's kept it from going live has been (to a lesser extent) some residual level of shame, but mostly the local Republicans thinking that doing that will mean Obama will blitz the gently caress out of their state to win each district and put their personal seat at risk.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:12
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You guys are fools if you think Carson's book tour won't look a lot like campaigning
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Oct 15, 2015 22:13
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Trump is really the most likely GOP candidate right now isn't he. Donald loving Trump.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:13
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Gravel Gravy posted:"He kept us safe" Outside of that whole 9/11 thing
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Oct 15, 2015 22:14
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evilweasel posted:Going to a formula that the winner of each congressional district gets one EV, and the winner of the state gets +2 EVs. In gerrymandered blue states that will mean that the Republican will lose the state and get a majority of the EVs. It's been proposed but not passed in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, and what's kept it from going live has been (to a lesser extent) some residual level of shame, but mostly the local Republicans thinking that doing that will mean Obama will blitz the gently caress out of their state to win each district and put their personal seat at risk. I don't like this at all. Trabisnikof posted:You guys are fools if you think Carson's book tour won't look a lot like campaigning I think saying "I'm suspending my campaign" is dumb as gently caress for someone who is ostensibly running for president.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:15
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Now I want you to take all of the Middle East stuff I posted above, think about it for a minute, then imagine the poor, poor advisers who would be tasked on trying to explain all of that insanity to President Donald Trump, President Ben Carson, or President Carly Fiorina. Now after thinking about that, I want you to think about the fact that thanks to the US Congress refusing to pass a new AUMF, the old AUMF would give President Donald Trump, President Ben Carson, or President Carly Fiorina carte blanche to do whatever the gently caress they felt like doing in the Middle East to deal with all of the above, up to and including starting a shooting war with Putin/Russia over Syria. But nah, there's no difference between the two parties. fade5 fucked around with this message at 22:20 on Oct 15, 2015 |
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Oct 15, 2015 22:15
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evilweasel posted:Going to a formula that the winner of each congressional district gets one EV, and the winner of the state gets +2 EVs. In gerrymandered blue states that will mean that the Republican will lose the state and get a majority of the EVs. It's been proposed but not passed in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, and what's kept it from going live has been (to a lesser extent) some residual level of shame, but mostly the local Republicans thinking that doing that will mean Obama will blitz the gently caress out of their state to win each district and put their personal seat at risk. This would be a smart strategy for a unified party but US political parties have lost more and more central power as time goes on. It's really not in the local parties' best interest to split up their EVs, because it results in a less prestigious election for them, so they won't do it. Remember that FYGM has been embraced by the GOP so thoroughly that they even apply it to fellow party members.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:15
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Fojar38 posted:Trump is really the most likely GOP candidate right now isn't he. Donald loving Trump. I expect it to collapse back down to someone like Rubio eventually, but Jeb is on the ropes and no one would've predicted that a year ago so who the gently caress knows?
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Oct 15, 2015 22:15
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Rollofthedice posted:If the Repubs keep massively loving up as they seem to be doing now and lose the election by a landslide, could there be a greater than expected loss of senate/house seats on their end? Or are voters and gerrymandering still too entrenched on the local level? You'd think that some would theoretically be disgusted enough by Trump to at least consider voting independent, but maybe I'm just an idiot. Democrats have to win the national House vote by something ludicrous like +8 or more to get control of the House. It is possible for them to take back the Senate if they sweep the potentially vulnerable states but it's likely they make gains, but not enough. They have to win all Republican seats in blue states, then knock off Ohio and/or Florida. Doable, but requires each race to go their way.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:16
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Trabisnikof posted:You guys are fools if you think Carson's book tour won't look a lot like campaigning Is his book about the holocaust?
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Oct 15, 2015 22:16
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zoux posted:I think saying "I'm suspending my campaign" is dumb as gently caress for someone who is ostensibly running for president. Except he isn't doing that: quote:Republican presidential contender Dr. Ben Carson has put his public campaign events on hold for two more weeks to go on book tour for his new tome “A More Perfect Union” and catch up on fundraising events. Dude is just going and getting $$$ rather thank speaking in public, so people are acting like he's suspending his campaign.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:17
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crazy cloud posted:Is his book about the holocaust? Ha. Trabisnikof posted:Except he isn't doing that: That ain't how it's being reported on.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:17
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computer parts posted:This would be a smart strategy for a unified party but US political parties have lost more and more central power as time goes on. That's why states like Pennsylvania and Michigan are targets for this: they're solidly in the Democratic camp and nobody sane thinks they can contest them in a Presidential election. Romney and Ryan only campaigned there because they thought they were going to win and were trying to run up the score to put what "sane" means in context. Doing this would make the election locally more prestigious as it would actually be contested.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:18
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evilweasel posted:Democrats have to win the national House vote by something ludicrous like +8 or more to get control of the House. It is possible for them to take back the Senate if they sweep the potentially vulnerable states but it's likely they make gains, but not enough. They have to win all Republican seats in blue states, then knock off Ohio and/or Florida. Doable, but requires each race to go their way. I guess I'll be rooting for a blue Senate then. At least when I'm inevitably disappointed, I won't be that disappointed.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:18
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:The reality is that there's so much data out there that they can't really do much with it. For a moment, just imagine Richard Milhous Nixon with access to all the NSA data. The same president who ordered two CIA agents to break into the Watergate hotel and set up wiretaps on the Democrats for him. Who maintained an enemies list that were targeted regularly by the IRS, FBI, and other organizations for harassment. Imagine the gigantic, drunken erection he would have, flipping through his iPad inbetween Redskins plays and sips of whiskey. 
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Oct 15, 2015 22:19
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I had forgotten that for a moment, let's remember that mitt "i am a competent businessman, really" romney paul "math wiz wonderkid" ryan believed that everyone else was bad at math and they were actually cruising to a historically huge victory that they would actually win pennsylvania and just could not believe what the gently caress when it turned out that math works
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Oct 15, 2015 22:20
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Fojar38 posted:Trump is really the most likely GOP candidate right now isn't he. Donald loving Trump. Trump is not the most likely GOP candidate. Most primary voters don't even start paying attention until December. I think people here are going to have a breakdown when the polls shift into the direction of an establishment candidate during that time.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:21
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Zeroisanumber posted:~38% positive ratings last I checked. He'd be blown out completely. That sounds like the kind of underestimation that the GOP was doing six months ago.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:23
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Mitt Romney posted:Trump is not the most likely GOP candidate. Most primary voters don't even start paying attention until December. I think Jeb is clearly done though. Rubio seems to be the likely 'establishment' candidate at this point. If I had to bet though, I'd probably bet on Trump given the odds everyone is giving him, hes got a much better shot than people are willing to admit.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:23
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zen death robot posted:http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/15/politics/ben-carson-campaign-not-suspended/index.html Yeah the damage is done, all his interviews for who knows how long will be him clarifying that he didn't suspend his campaign and then why he thought it was a good idea to go on a book tour in the middle of a presidential campaign. evilweasel posted:I think Jeb is clearly done though. Rubio seems to be the likely 'establishment' candidate at this point. If I had to bet though, I'd probably bet on Trump given the odds everyone is giving him, hes got a much better shot than people are willing to admit. I agree entirely.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:23
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evilweasel posted:That's why states like Pennsylvania and Michigan are targets for this: they're solidly in the Democratic camp and nobody sane thinks they can contest them in a Presidential election. Romney and Ryan only campaigned there because they thought they were going to win and were trying to run up the score to put what "sane" means in context. Doing this would make the election locally more prestigious as it would actually be contested. Yeah that's the point. The GOP still thinks they're a possible swing state, so they're not going to jeopardize that possibility.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:23
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Luigi Thirty posted:That church beating to death case got weird: the church is an insular compound where they raise dogs and don't let police in. The beatings happened at a "counseling session" that consisted of the parents beating the poo poo out of their kids until they "confess their sins." So yeah, fundamentalism strikes again.  Yep, that checks out.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:28
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evilweasel posted:I had forgotten that for a moment, let's remember that mitt "i am a competent businessman, really" romney paul "math wiz wonderkid" ryan believed that everyone else was bad at math and they were actually cruising to a historically huge victory that they would actually win pennsylvania and just could not believe what the gently caress when it turned out that math works Also the glorious moment when Ohio was called for Obama and Rove was almost disturbingly sure that that wasn't the case and everyone else's numbers were wrong. Did anyone ever figure out what numbers Rove and Romney/Ryan were actually looking at?
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Oct 15, 2015 22:28
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Welp, Mike Huckabee is taking a strange policy position. quote:The United States criminal justice system could be improved if we sell poor people convicted of crimes into slavery, according to Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:29
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Mitt Romney posted:Trump is not the most likely GOP candidate. Most primary voters don't even start paying attention until December. Username/Post of the year. And I don't know, man. I'm seeing some momentum for Rubio and Carson is all but out, but if the "sane" wing of the GOP could've gotten a handle on this they would've done it already.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:30
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Rhesus Pieces posted:Also the glorious moment when Ohio was called for Obama and Rove was almost disturbingly sure that that wasn't the case and everyone else's numbers were wrong. They were literally unskewing the polls like those crazy people on the internet were, rebalancing them assuming that more white people would show up.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:31
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It feels like so long ago now that I was worried about Huckabee most of all because he was clearly a loving looney but kept it under wraps and was charismatic I wonder what happened
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Oct 15, 2015 22:32
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zoux posted:It is which is why it's important that the next president is a Democrat no matter how much a Wall Street shill she is. Won't have to since Bernie is going to win. I suppose if Bernie were to drop out for health reasons I'd gladly vote for Hillary.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:32
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Kro-Bar posted:Welp, Mike Huckabee is taking a strange policy position. What the gently caress.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:32
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evilweasel posted:Going to a formula that the winner of each congressional district gets one EV, and the winner of the state gets +2 EVs. In gerrymandered blue states that will mean that the Republican will lose the state and get a majority of the EVs. It's been proposed but not passed in both Pennsylvania and Michigan, and what's kept it from going live has been (to a lesser extent) some residual level of shame, but mostly the local Republicans thinking that doing that will mean Obama will blitz the gently caress out of their state to win each district and put their personal seat at risk. This is by biggest concern right now with elections is the Republicans gerry mandering the Electoral college.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:33
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Kro-Bar posted:Welp, Mike Huckabee is taking a strange policy position. "Look at me! Look at me! Look at me!"
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Oct 15, 2015 22:33
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I would vote for Satan himself before I voted Republican or stayed home this cycle. No way do we need a more conservative SCOTUS, and that's all the reason I need
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Oct 15, 2015 22:35
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Trabisnikof posted:You guys are fools if you think Carson's book tour won't look a lot like campaigning All Republicans were born the second Obama elected. I mean, how else could they forget the last time this transparently bullshit thing happened with McCain 'suspending' his campaign for the financial crisis.
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Oct 15, 2015 22:36
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