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I would be really happy about Freeman being a workhorse but my heads up opponent drafted him and he has nearly a 50% draft rate in the tourney I'm in. I guess it's good since I doubt another running back is going to put up 40 points this week.
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Oct 16, 2015 04:38
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Counterpoint, I drafted Freeman and am loving life. On the other hand I also took Matt Ryan.
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Oct 16, 2015 04:47
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overdesigned posted:Counterpoint, I drafted Freeman and am loving life. On the other hand I also took Matt Ryan. you and me both. But those were the only two players I had in this game and I'm like three points out of the money for a couple tournaments, so I'm not complaining.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:07
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Sharzak posted:you and me both. But those were the only two players I had in this game and I'm like three points out of the money for a couple tournaments, so I'm not complaining. I had Mark Ingram too, and he put up a fairly respectable 20 points. Overall I'm happy so far, especially considering this is my first week doing DFS ever and I have no idea what I'm doing.
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Oct 16, 2015 05:17
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overdesigned posted:I had Mark Ingram too, and he put up a fairly respectable 20 points. Overall I'm happy so far, especially considering this is my first week doing DFS ever and I have no idea what I'm doing. Sup fellow noob  I took freeman and only freeman so far and im a couple places out of money in a 50 50. Should shape up well as a few of those top players had several players go. Still early to  but its been a fun few hours.
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Oct 16, 2015 09:04
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Marshmallow Blue posted:Sup fellow noob Freeman is like 66+% owned in some of the 50/50 so I'm a bit worried cause last week I had Dhop and still got knocked out in some of them Here's to hoping that the rest of my teams do well. Having Freeman as a starter helps!
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Oct 16, 2015 15:03
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Yuzenn posted:Freeman is like 66+% owned in some of the 50/50 so I'm a bit worried cause last week I had Dhop and still got knocked out in some of them Yeah, the one I'm in only 11/50 people didn't take him. This is my team and I think I can pull off a top 50 finish QB Andy Dalton Devonta Freeman Giovani Bernard Allen Robinson Julian Edelman Larry Fitzgerald Antonio Gates Stephen Gostkowski Denver Broncos All of the people who had Freeman only on Thursday are in a 12 way tie for 28th. The person in first has 71 points but only has 4 players left.
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Oct 16, 2015 15:20
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Marshmallow Blue posted:... Stephen Gostkowski ... Oh so you must be playing FanDuel. I don't know what everyone else's feelings are on this, but for me, I won't play Thursday slates on FanDuel. FanDuel is the only site that fully locks your lineups as soon as the first player starts on your team. Others like DraftKings and Yahoo will only lock the players who have started, allowing you to still swap out the players yet to play if you desire. This isn't as big a deal on FanDuel for other slates because the gap between the Sunday and Monday games is not as consequential. However, with such a big time gap between the Thursday games and the Sunday ones, I don't like taking the risk of not being able to change the rest of my lineup after Thursday, so I avoid Thursday slates on that site.
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Oct 16, 2015 15:28
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CompeAnansi posted:Oh so you must be playing FanDuel. I don't know what everyone else's feelings are on this, but for me, I won't play Thursday slates on FanDuel. FanDuel is the only site that fully locks your lineups as soon as the first player starts on your team. Others like DraftKings and Yahoo will only lock the players who have started, allowing you to still swap out the players yet to play if you desire. This isn't as big a deal on FanDuel for other slates because the gap between the Sunday and Monday games is not as consequential. However, with such a big time gap between the Thursday games and the Sunday ones, I don't like taking the risk of not being able to change the rest of my lineup after Thursday, so I avoid Thursday slates on that site. Yeah that's kind of a bummer. I guess it helps players from switching out players based on if they need a high risk high reward if they've fallen behind. Thankfully I don't have any Ps or Qs in my lineup, but I may stay clear of Thursdays match-ups for this reason.
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Oct 16, 2015 15:44
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I read that post like three times and freaked out about there apparently being some Gostkowski news I didn't know until I realized you just meant only FD uses kickers.
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Oct 16, 2015 16:30
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I kind of like the FanDuel Thursday lock, for GPPs at least, because if there's some value player due to an injury rumor or something, often you can get him at low ownership. By Sunday everyone's on them. Of course there's the risk that the injury rumor doesn't pan out but that strategy has worked out for me in the past.
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Oct 16, 2015 19:00
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SurgicalOntologist posted:I kind of like the FanDuel Thursday lock, for GPPs at least, because if there's some value player due to an injury rumor or something, often you can get him at low ownership. By Sunday everyone's on them. Of course there's the risk that the injury rumor doesn't pan out but that strategy has worked out for me in the past. Was about to post the same thing - I like that the lineups lock completely for this reason.
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Oct 16, 2015 19:06
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Any news on Dion Lewis yet? I'm using him across a few 50/50s and a H2H. Also how do you guys pick opponents for H2Hs, I see a lot of people with a lot of wins. I found one guy with 170 or so and took my shot with him, but is there a good way to find quality H2H oppononents?
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Oct 16, 2015 20:15
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Marshmallow Blue posted:Any news on Dion Lewis yet? I'm using him across a few 50/50s and a H2H. Lewis practiced today, so that's a good sign. As for H2Hs, on DK I just post my games and put the matchup limiter on 1. I'm too lazy to scout my opponents so I just assume that sharks will only get so much from my 1 dollar game they can only scoop one of and it'll even out. On FD I just join H2HMatrix games, which is effectively the same thing.
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Oct 16, 2015 20:50
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Marshmallow Blue posted:Yeah, the one I'm in only 11/50 people didn't take him. This is my team and I think I can pull off a top 50 finish That lineup looks fine...I'm just worried that my Dalton/Lewis/Edelman reliance this week bites me in the rear end. I mean I probably have 40+ lineups in between the two sites set and at least one of them are in probably 35 of them.....
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Oct 16, 2015 21:16
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Yuzenn posted:That lineup looks fine...I'm just worried that my Dalton/Lewis/Edelman reliance this week bites me in the rear end. I mean I probably have 40+ lineups in between the two sites set and at least one of them are in probably 35 of them..... If history is any indication NE players are your best bet for major points. Brady loves lighting up the Colts defense. I'm heavily playing Brady with variations of Blount/Lewis/Gronk/Edelman this week.
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Oct 16, 2015 21:18
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I'm going with a Lacy/Lamar Miller combo in a couple GPPs anticipating/hoping this is the week they both break out. Their prices are nicely depressed compared to the beginning of the year. I'll check back in on Sunday to let everyone know how terribly it worked out for me.
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Oct 16, 2015 21:19
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Marshmallow Blue posted:Any news on Dion Lewis yet? I'm using him across a few 50/50s and a H2H. Although ironically I'm switching off of double-ups for the first time and onto H2H's so I'm going to be one of those guys that everyone is looking to play.
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Oct 16, 2015 21:19
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jabro posted:If history is any indication NE players are your best bet for major points. Brady loves lighting up the Colts defense. I'm heavily playing Brady with variations of Blount/Lewis/Gronk/Edelman this week. Yeah I have a lot of Gronk as well but he's a pretty solid lock at the TE position. Otherwise the only sure fire bet I saw was Gates. I have some Brady but the Edelman/Gronk/Brady stack is super expensive and I think it's going to be a tough week for non pass catching backs so I'm saving on either Brady or Gronk and going for Bell/Foster/AP and I already had Freeman. My interesting play of the week is Sam Bradford....if he can't go the gently caress off on a Giants team that is SO decimated at every position I don't even know what to think about football anymore. I'm not stacking him with anyone because he spreads the ball around a lot. Maybe some Ertz on the cheap for some GGPs. Outside of the Watson surprise I think I have enough exposure to the people who are most likely to go off...totally faded Juilo and Ryan outside of 1 lineup and I think Antonio Brown is another expensive fade. Dependent on the injury report I might be fading ODB as well but he could be an interesting play if he is a game time decision for Monday.
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Oct 16, 2015 22:01
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Well, I did it... simulated the slate 200 times and submitted the 200 resulting "nuts" lineups to the DraftKings 25-cent GPP. The percentages look reasonable but man, some of these lineups are ridiculous. Goodbye $50.
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Oct 18, 2015 07:12
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SurgicalOntologist posted:If you want to play cash games (as in, not-tournaments), play head-to-heads and not 50/50s or double-ups. The reason is that it allows for a larger range of outcomes. If you score in the 49th percentile your ROI will be -100% in a 50/50 but only like -10% in a bunch of head-to-heads. In the long-run they may be equally profitable but the name of the game is minimizing variance. Especially if that :tenbux: is all you're going to deposit--don't want to lose it all the first week. Problem with head to head is how it's difficult to match up against anyone but dfs pros because they have the same idea.
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Oct 18, 2015 07:44
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SurgicalOntologist posted:Well, I did it... simulated the slate 200 times and submitted the 200 resulting "nuts" lineups to the DraftKings 25-cent GPP. The percentages look reasonable but man, some of these lineups are ridiculous. Goodbye $50. Do they have, like, web APIs for this, or do you have to go through and click every single one of those in?
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Oct 18, 2015 07:56
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jarjarbinksfan621 posted:Problem with head to head is how it's difficult to match up against anyone but dfs pros because they have the same idea. DK at least has the option to only allow opponents to play against you in a limited number of contests (as few as 1 per opponent, which is what I always set it to). In FanDuel there are H2H Matrix games which accomplish the same thing. overdesigned posted:Do they have, like, web APIs for this, or do you have to go through and click every single one of those in? I use this: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/rotogrinders-draftkings-t/lokmacldfjfgajcebibmmfohacnikhhd?hl=en-US I'm not sure if it's an API underneath or if it's just automating site interactions, but if you ask nicely and your use case falls within their guidelines, they'll hook you up: https://newsroom.fanduel.com/2015/10/08/scripting-policy/ I would love to make a Python library or command-line tool instead of using a Chrome extension, but realistically there are many DFS-related programming things I'd rather do first (like perfect these Monte Carlo simulations).
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Oct 18, 2015 08:20
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SurgicalOntologist posted:Well, I did it... simulated the slate 200 times and submitted the 200 resulting "nuts" lineups to the DraftKings 25-cent GPP. The percentages look reasonable but man, some of these lineups are ridiculous. Goodbye $50. That sounds like a ton of fun, and is definitely something I'd do if I felt like upping my bankroll. Good luck goonsir 
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Oct 18, 2015 08:49
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SurgicalOntologist posted:DK at least has the option to only allow opponents to play against you in a limited number of contests (as few as 1 per opponent, which is what I always set it to). In FanDuel there are H2H Matrix games which accomplish the same thing. That H2H Matrix sounds cool, I only play NHL on fanduel so I've never seen it. That filter sounds cool too, I haven't tried DraftKings yet. I think the pros on FanDuel use scripts to scoop up matchups with people who match certain parameters, so whenever I try to play a non-pro, the match is filled almost instantaneously.
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Oct 18, 2015 09:06
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What the gently caress. My dad won 1000 bucks last week and he doesn't even follow football. He randomly picked a team. Please kill me.
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Oct 18, 2015 09:44
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old dog child posted:What the gently caress. My dad won 1000 bucks last week and he doesn't even follow football. He randomly picked a team. Please kill me. It's just that easy! Also how in the world do you simulate the games?
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Oct 18, 2015 15:03
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Spoeank posted:It's just that easy! Madden right? Please tell me it's Madden. Also whats the deal with lewis. Hes saying hes gonna play but is going to test it out in warmups too see. Do i roll him or switch him out with ivory. This is across 3 leagues 2 50 50s and a triple up.
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Oct 18, 2015 15:25
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Spoeank posted:Also how in the world do you simulate the games? For now I'm using the projections at numberfire, which include confidence intervals. I can recover the projected variance from the confidence intervals, and I calculated covariances from historical data (posted the results upthread). So I can come up with a variance-covariance matrix for every game, take the means directly from the projections, and pull numbers from the corresponding multivariate normal distribution. I'd like to do something more sophisticated, at the moment I'm stuck with numberfire since I haven't seen anyone else that publishes standard deviation or variance. I'd like to continue taking the means from someone else's projection, but estimate the variance based on the raw-statistic projections. For example every receiver would have an estimated variance as a function of the projected number of targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. This is likely what numberfire is doing anyway, but they probably don't put a lot of focus into getting the variance estimates right, whereas it's my primary effort with this strategy. Of course this is probably all a moot point since I'll likely lose all my entries this week and not have any confidence to continue.
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Oct 18, 2015 16:15
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SurgicalOntologist posted:For now I'm using the projections at numberfire, which include confidence intervals. I can recover the projected variance from the confidence intervals, and I calculated covariances from historical data (posted the results upthread). So I can come up with a variance-covariance matrix for every game, take the means directly from the projections, and pull numbers from the corresponding multivariate normal distribution. Nate Silver's Bayesian Fantasy Football has 5%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 95%, but you have to pay for the full data tables http://www.bayesff.com/weekly/ FantasyLabs has "Floor" and "Ceiling" projections, which are 15% and 85%, along with the mean projection. They also give "Consistency" and "Upside" ratings, which seem like simplified kurtosis and skew: http://www.fantasylabs.com/nfl/player-ratings/protrends/
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Oct 18, 2015 16:29
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I subscribed to BayesFF but it's not good enough for my purposes. It's only the model, without any manual adjustments of the projection based on injuries and depth chart. Also, he uses the same shape parameters for every player at each position. So, it's a good modeling strategy for the means, but like most other sites the variance aspect is an afterthought. I have not seen FantasyLabs, thanks for bringing that to my attention. I'll take a closer look.
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Oct 18, 2015 17:15
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So what's the consensus on playing Dalton this after with some snow reported in Buffalo? Could easily swap him for McCown and maybe upgrade at a different position.
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Oct 18, 2015 17:41
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Sock The Great posted:So what's the consensus on playing Dalton this after with some snow reported in Buffalo? Could easily swap him for McCown and maybe upgrade at a different position. Do not start QBs against Denver. Especially Josh McCown.
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Oct 18, 2015 17:45
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How do the signup bonuses work for these sites? Back in the day I used to sign up for online poker and casinos for the bonuses... you could get almost a guaranteed profit off of them. Example: 200% deposit bonus on $100 for an online casino, you have to play $1000 worth of bets, which if you play "book" strategy blackjack averages out to losing $20 so you profit $180 on average. Or you get a similar bonus for poker and have to play 1000 hands, and if you're good enough to play at least breakeven is just free money. I made those numbers up but it was really that easy. Can you take advantage of DFS bonuses in a similar way?
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Oct 18, 2015 17:53
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Elysium posted:How do the signup bonuses work for these sites? The majority of the bonuses are released as .04/dollar entered. So for instance if you deposit $100 on any of the "main sites" (Draftkings and Fanduel ) you will get a $100 bonus. If you enter a $5 contest, as soon as the contest begins a .20 bonus will be added to your account at a certain time. For Fanduel it is added immediately but for Draftkings you need to earn $1 of bonus ($25 worth of entries) before it is added to your account. Yahoo also offers a bonus equal to double your deposit, which is released at the same rate as the others and immediately like Fanduel, if you are also in a season long league on yahoo https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantasy/ PS-I included my referral links for Draftkings and Fanduel in case you wish to deposit. The SituAsian fucked around with this message at 18:32 on Oct 18, 2015 |
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Oct 18, 2015 18:25
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You know what I see when I watch Denver's defense? Dollar signs.
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Oct 18, 2015 18:52
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Elysium posted:How do the signup bonuses work for these sites? No, the DFS bonuses aren't nearly as good as poker/casino bonuses. The rake is so high, you won't even notice when it gets released into your account after entries are resolved. The bonuses pretty much put the rake at the percent it should be.
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Oct 18, 2015 19:50
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Next on the list of must adds to every lineup: DHop, jesus christ
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Oct 18, 2015 20:51
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The one lineup I made six minutes before kickoff and couldn't get into any GPP tourneys (at my price point of "as little as possible") is sitting at 178 points with LeGarrette Blount still to play. At least it's crushing its single H2H matchup 
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Oct 19, 2015 01:00
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Lacy and Lewis cost me literal hundreds of dollars...... I'm just doing 50/50's and double ups from now on...I can't stand going from 300th place down to over 2000 each week
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Oct 19, 2015 04:58
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