|
If Biden goes in now, it's possible he'll split the establishment vote and hand Bernie the win. Which would be great for me as Bernie fan, but probably not what the party is looking for right now.
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2015 23:02
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 14, 2024 22:38 |
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:If Biden goes in now, it's possible he'll split the establishment vote and hand Bernie the win. Which would be great for me as Bernie fan, but probably not what the party is looking for right now. As a fan of Bernie, I too want this to happen. As a fan of the money I have on Biden NO, I don't want this to happen.
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2015 23:07
|
|
|
Why would you sell a winning prediction for 0.97 at the last second instead of just waiting for the $1 payout?
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2015 23:10
|
|
|
Jewel Repetition posted:Why would you sell a winning prediction for 0.97 at the last second instead of just waiting for the $1 payout? That money is locked down until it's dispersed to you. People want access to the money, thinking they'll make more than 3% in that period. also gambling addiction
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2015 23:14
|
|
|
Also it could be possible they had the sell orders already set up and forgot about them
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2015 23:38
|
|
|
 The power of the media
|
|
#
?
Oct 16, 2015 23:41
|
|
|
nachos posted:The power of the media I'm in the Biden NO camp and I'm still nervous too. Not going to sell my shares or anything, but really hoping he doesn't do some dumb desperation run just because so many people want him to.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 00:02
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:If Biden goes in now, it's possible he'll split the establishment vote and hand Bernie the win. Which would be great for me as Bernie fan, but probably not what the party is looking for right now. I thought the Democratic primaries were proportional so Biden splitting the vote, unless it means Bernie getting a majority, would mean a  brokered convention
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 01:01
|
|
|
It looks like Biden NO has finally stabilized in a .44/.40 window. Am I so out of touch? No, it's the Biden YES who are wrong.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 01:07
|
|
|
They delayed linked contract pricing again lol. Probably because it is going to gently caress everything up and there are going to be a poo poo load of angry people when their YES shares are worth half
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 01:07
|
|
|
Stereotype posted:They delayed linked contract pricing again lol. Meanwhile there are probably more people playing multiple NO bets who are getting annoyed that it keeps getting pushed back. Seriously, why even announce it if you aren't ready to go?
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 01:34
|
|
|
Gyges posted:Meanwhile there are probably more people playing multiple NO bets who are getting annoyed that it keeps getting pushed back. Seriously, why even announce it if you aren't ready to go? I don't understand why they don't just say "unlinked markets are dumb but that was our bad to begin with so all current ones will stay the way they are but all new markets will be linked." Boom. Done. No one can get mad.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 01:37
|
|
|
AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:50 on Jan 23, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 01:41
|
|
|
All bets aside, I think I most want Biden to not run and for the 2016 Game Change to have a fascinating and hilarious chapter on the misguided Bidenites who desperately tried to trick Biden into a full campaign. It's much more entertaining than Biden gets crushed yet again, ruins the dream of the Immortal Diamond VP. Oh, no, this letter of declaration totally has Joe's blessing. Just don't ask him about it, he's a little shy.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 01:58
|
|
|
Why is Ted Kaufman sending out the letter equivalent of OJ's "If I did it" to people? Don't worry supporters, if he decides to run it will be a campaign for the middle class and also in memory of his son!
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 02:01
|
|
|
nachos posted:Why is Ted Kaufman sending out the letter equivalent of OJ's "If I did it" to people? Don't worry supporters, if he decides to run it will be a campaign for the middle class and also in memory of his son! Probably a desperate move to keep a putative coalition together after the debate.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 02:39
|
|
|
AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:50 on Jan 23, 2016 |
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 02:43
|
|
|
Do Not Resuscitate posted:If he ends up running -- and not because he's taking advantage of some disastrous Clinton misstep -- I want to know why the gently caress he waited so long. Almost definitely because he was hosed up about his son dying. He may be done grieving now and after a few blinks realized the entire opening act is already over and he hasn't done as much as a single fundraising dinner. I sincerely believe that losing his son rocked him to his core. I also sincerely believe that he always and still desperately wants to be POTUS. I happen to be on the side that he's realized it's too little too late so I may as well have fun with this poo poo and make those ratfuck journalists/consultants dance for me one last time before I bow out.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 03:10
|
|
|
If we make it through the next 2 days without a declaration, will the Biden Yes crater again or do we have to wait at least a week? I'm kind of tempted to cash out next inversion and buy yes, because it always bounces back.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 19:41
|
|
|
Gyges posted:If we make it through the next 2 days without a declaration, will the Biden Yes crater again or do we have to wait at least a week? I saw a few of the Biden Yes people pushing October 23 as the next day he will definitely for sure announce this time seriously guys, so I'd give it until that long.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 19:49
|
|
|
New reports have him talking to the firefighters and saying a decision is imminent in the next couple days. If he doesn't announce by Monday or Tuesday I'd expect the no shares to jump in value again.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 20:26
|
|
|
At this point, I have around 90% of my money sitting on Biden NO. Once the rest of my shares mature I'll probably make it 100%. Let's do this.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 20:37
|
|
|
I am back to a Biden NO max bet  Looks pretty clear that Hillary will "win" the debate polling. Wish I put more in Bernie NO, but between that Bernie NO to win, and Webb/Chaffee/O'Malley NO to lose, I should make a nice profit. I have no idea what I'll plow that money into though.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 20:57
|
|
|
Wanamingo posted:At this point, I have around 90% of my money sitting on Biden NO. Once the rest of my shares mature I'll probably make it 100%. Same, same 
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 20:57
|
|
|
Wanamingo posted:At this point, I have around 90% of my money sitting on Biden NO. Once the rest of my shares mature I'll probably make it 100%. You have a stronger stomach than I do. I sold about 25% in the high 60's and managed to sell 24 of them at 71. Every dip I'm buying 10 or 15 shares but selling 20 or 25 every little spike. At this point its about 15% of my portfolio. It really could go either way. I am heavily invested in Webb, Chafee and Biden (read the rules people!) not being the biggest loser in the polls. I was able to buy a bunch of Webb for 85 and my average basis is 89. My basis in Chafee is 93.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 21:00
|
|
|
Wanamingo posted:At this point, I have around 90% of my money sitting on Biden NO. Once the rest of my shares mature I'll probably make it 100%. Same here. I'm shakin' in my boots, although I don't know if it's from the anxiety of losing it or the excitement of cashing in. The majority of my shares were bought in the .40s, with some in the .30s and .50s.
|
|
#
?
Oct 17, 2015 21:11
|
|
|
This city is afraid of me. I have seen its true face. The streets are extended gutters and the gutters are full of blood and when the drains finally scab over, all the vermin will drown. The accumulated filth of all their sex and murder will foam up about their waists and all the whores and politicians will look up and shout "Run for President!" ... and I'll look down and whisper "No."
|
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 00:06
|
|
|
Biden NO reaching historic lows and there's money to back it up. If he really doesn't run we'll have buying opportunities.
|
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 03:32
|
|
|
An even stupider market is Biden polling over 20% at the end of the month. Everyone's been shouting that his oldest polls in his RCP average were well under 20 and due to come off, without mentioning that he's still under 20% without those polls, and oh yeah there's no way he's coming close to that in this weekend's polls after missing the debate.
|
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 04:07
|
|
|
tinstaach posted:An even stupider market is Biden polling over 20% at the end of the month. Everyone's been shouting that his oldest polls in his RCP average were well under 20 and due to come off, without mentioning that he's still under 20% without those polls, and oh yeah there's no way he's coming close to that in this weekend's polls after missing the debate. Latest poll (not included in RCP's average) shows Biden at 10%, too. No is an obvious buy there. But then again, poll markets.
|
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 04:39
|
|
|
Aliquid posted:Biden NO reaching historic lows and there's money to back it up. If he really doesn't run we'll have buying opportunities. Huh. Meanwhile I would be willing to buy NO at 80. Happy to get 'em sub 40 though lol.
|
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 05:01
|
|
|
There is $150k involved with the BIDEN RUN market, which is 10 times the amount Licoln Chaffee has gotten in donations. edit: Actually there is only half that, $75k. There are 150k stocks and it takes two to equal one dollar Stereotype has issued a correction as of 08:59 on Oct 18, 2015 |
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 07:29
|
|
|
It's pretty obvious Biden wants to run and is gearing up his machine, but it's also obvious he hasn't made a decision. I think he's letting it go to a sort of coin flip: Hillary looked like she rocked the debate, but do the poll numbers back it up? If she indeed did rock it (and she did) Joe bows out.
|
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 18:45
|
|
|
Yeah, I don't think there's any question that Biden wants to do it. It's just that the state of the field and the timing make it so that unless it's all heart, he's not in. With Hillary and Bernie in it, there's not even really room for a failed campaign to push an issue not being pushed. Webb's already got grandpa's conservative Democrat giving it one last go covered, and I don't think even Biden would run on a trains platform.
|
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 18:53
|
|
|
Well, the Biden No bettors can breath a sigh of relief.
|
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 19:52
|
|
|
Gyges posted:Well, the Biden No bettors can breath a sigh of relief. lol
|
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 20:29
|
|
|
The Biden market has inflated all the way back up to its pre-debate bubble. Get those Nos while they're hot.
|
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 21:20
|
|
|
Gyges posted:If we make it through the next 2 days without a declaration, will the Biden Yes crater again or do we have to wait at least a week? Biden no is back around .50 now that we've gotten through another weekend
|
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 22:34
|
|
|
nachos posted:Biden no is back around .50 now that we've gotten through another weekend .45 currently, was .40 when I posted earlier. Just make sure you get them before that Democratic dinner, because after that it's straight downhill. An especially daring gambler would wait until there's some kind of false hope right before the dinner that would cause a surge, like Biden's podium for the CNN debate.
|
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 22:50
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 14, 2024 22:38 |
|
|
Jewel Repetition posted:.45 currently, was .40 when I posted earlier. Just make sure you get them before that Democratic dinner, because after that it's straight downhill. An especially daring gambler would wait until there's some kind of false hope right before the dinner that would cause a surge, like Biden's podium for the CNN debate. It was up to 55 earlier. This is the market that must not stabilize.
|
|
#
?
Oct 18, 2015 23:05
|
|