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Aliquid posted:There's your problem. I only bet on things that I know won't (or will) happen, but that I want to come true. That way, either the universe bends itself to my will or I make some beer money. That's exactly what I'm doing! If trump is president I get to buy some beers If NK detonates a nuke I get to buy some beers If Biden doesn't ever run and we don't get blessed by diamond joe running the world, I get to buy some beers. Everything will be alright no matter what.
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Oct 20, 2015 08:12
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Stereotype posted:Everything will be alright no matter what. We say this now, but when Biden announces his doomed candidacy eventually, we will all be panicking and cursing.
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Oct 20, 2015 08:45
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if you mistype your cc number in the deposit field and try to submit it, then that number is stored in your browser cache until you clear it. 
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Oct 20, 2015 13:38
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we're in the middle of another swing, boys.
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Oct 20, 2015 14:38
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They dropped the IBD 18 poll for Bernie on RCP and Bernie dropped 80 points like instantaneously. So glad I sold those Chafee NO shares for 79c yesterday.
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Oct 20, 2015 15:06
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EngineerSean posted:They dropped the IBD 18 poll for Bernie on RCP and Bernie dropped 80 points like instantaneously. So glad I sold those Chafee NO shares for 79c yesterday. Hahahahaha. The Chafe is on. Those poll markets are utter madness.
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Oct 20, 2015 15:18
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New story about North Korean nuclear tests just came out an hour or two ago and has shaken up that sleepy market... relatively speaking. 175 shares have traded hands today, which is about 7x the normal daily volume and easily could just be one person gobbling up that many YES shares. I'm on the NO side so my G/L looks pretty bad right now, I'm still thinking it won't happen before the end of the year, so I may increase my NO position for cheap. Biden and nukes, what a world we live in.
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Oct 20, 2015 15:19
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The predictitors are reading the tea leaves hard on whatever panel Biden is at now. Might be a good time (again) to pick up cheap NOs and flip them when he doesn't announce today.
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Oct 20, 2015 15:38
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Tomato Burger posted:New story about North Korean nuclear tests just came out an hour or two ago and has shaken up that sleepy market... relatively speaking. If you read the rules it explicitly states that they have to detonate a thermonuclear weapon which puts an even heavier skew on NO.
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Oct 20, 2015 16:05
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Necc0 posted:If you read the rules it explicitly states that they have to detonate a thermonuclear weapon which puts an even heavier skew on NO. I do recall reading that in the market comments, and none of the detonations so far have been thermonuclear, so I'm still feeling pretty good. Bought up some cheaper shares as a result. If a nuke does go off I really hope PredictIt doesn't say "oops we meant any nuclear device and were just trying to fancy up the wording by saying thermonuclear". Speaking of thermonuclear, this Biden market has been nutty. I just jumped in as NO around 30 and have been tossed around like a ship on the ocean. It has been a wild two hours; I don't see how the rest of you have survived the last few weeks.
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Oct 20, 2015 16:14
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Pretty sure Biden is building up maximum hype for either a yes or a no, but it's impossible to tell if he really wants to put his legacy on the line here.
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Oct 20, 2015 16:14
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@BillKristol Biden confirms to Obama at lunch today he's running, announces at U Delaware tomorrow. You can feel the Joementum! That was 51 minutes ago by the way, not a peep from any actual news source
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Oct 20, 2015 16:16
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nachos posted:@BillKristol Not sure how Biden confirms he's running over lunch when they don't have lunch until 12:30 today. I think he's just trolling.
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Oct 20, 2015 16:18
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Those creepy gifs of him rubbing the shoulders of young girls... In a commercial... Launched by the likely first woman in the white house... Don't do it Biden.
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Oct 20, 2015 16:19
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my brain says no but my heart says run biden run
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Oct 20, 2015 16:21
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EngineerSean posted:my
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Oct 20, 2015 16:36
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Politico has a story out saying Biden actually wanted to go after Bin Laden in Pakistan, contrary to all the reports. Uh oh.
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Oct 20, 2015 16:53
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Oct 20, 2015 16:59
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Concerned Citizen posted:Not sure how Biden confirms he's running over lunch when they don't have lunch until 12:30 today. I think he's just trolling. It's also Bill Kristol. If Bill Kristol announces the sky is blue, buy shares in sky green, he's literally the most wrong pundit in Washington to the point where it's practically a performance piece. If Biden doesn't announce today, poo poo ain't happening until Saturday. You don't want to make that kind of announcement on Wed-Fri. If he does wait until Saturday, that's another week he lost out on and his numbers will drop to sub-10 by Christmas. All it will manage to do is taint the brand and hurt Hillary and Bernie's chances. Edited to add:  Bill Kristol, ladies and gentlemen. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 17:49 on Oct 20, 2015 |
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Oct 20, 2015 17:25
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pathetic little tramp posted:It's also Bill Kristol. If Bill Kristol announces the sky is blue, buy shares in sky green, he's literally the most wrong pundit in Washington to the point where it's practically a performance piece. I don't agree. He can announce any time this week and make the Iowa JJ his first major speech. If he doesn't announce by JJ, it'll mean something is seriously dysfunctional. If he were announcing today, we'd likely already know. Edit: Also, just as a note. There's no reason to think Biden's announcement will be a big Trump-esque event. Hillary, for example, announced her candidacy over YouTube and didn't have a big kick off speech until a month later. Biden's schedule would likely be compressed but the point is that there's no reason to think this needs to fit into any particular mold. He could simply file and do a press release, if he wished. Concerned Citizen has issued a correction as of 17:32 on Oct 20, 2015 |
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Oct 20, 2015 17:27
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Tomato Burger posted:I do recall reading that in the market comments, and none of the detonations so far have been thermonuclear, so I'm still feeling pretty good. Bought up some cheaper shares as a result. The CEO is this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Aristotle_Phillips He knows his nuke classifications 
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Oct 20, 2015 18:21
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 Lucky this one doesn't have markets for "who drops first"
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Oct 20, 2015 19:32
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Nintendo Kid posted:
Does that mean +$70 or $70 total including your original amount?
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Oct 20, 2015 19:49
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Oct 20, 2015 19:56
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Vox Nihili posted:Does that mean +$70 or $70 total including your original amount? Bet was $2000 on "No, Webb will not secure the 2016 nomination", return was $2070.48 because the chance for yes was very low already.
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Oct 20, 2015 20:00
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Nintendo Kid posted:Bet was $2000 on "No, Webb will not secure the 2016 nomination", return was $2070.48 because the chance for yes was very low already. Did you go all in after his announcement to drop? That seems an obscure market in which to dump two grand unless it was a very recent move.
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Oct 20, 2015 20:20
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Oh man I forgot the debt ceiling was so close. This ones gonna be good 
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Oct 20, 2015 20:25
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I don't have any more available cash 
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Oct 20, 2015 20:27
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Aliquid posted:Did you go all in after his announcement to drop? That seems an obscure market in which to dump two grand unless it was a very recent move. I did $2000 on No back in seotember for "will x be the democratic candidate" on everyone but Clinton and Sanders. Safe bets after all.
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Oct 20, 2015 20:28
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Necc0 posted:Oh man I forgot the debt ceiling was so close. This ones gonna be good It seems an easy yes but I think we're at the peak on the value of YES before it resolves. Probably best to buy some low nos and ride them up 20 cents or so as we approach.
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Oct 20, 2015 20:30
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Necc0 posted:Oh man I forgot the debt ceiling was so close. This ones gonna be good This one should be awesome. I ultimately think this one will end up resolving as NO because there's always little tricks and levers and pockets available to avoid hitting the debt ceiling on the initial prescribed date... I may toss a few bucks that way; need to mull it over a bit longer. 2-week turnaround is nice and short, regardless.
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Oct 20, 2015 20:32
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Tomato Burger posted:there's always little tricks and levers and pockets available to avoid hitting the debt ceiling on the initial prescribed date... Upon further research, these "extraordinary measures" have been deployed since March, so this may actually be the drop-dead date.
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Oct 20, 2015 20:41
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Tomato Burger posted:This one should be awesome. I ultimately think this one will end up resolving as NO because there's always little tricks and levers and pockets available to avoid hitting the debt ceiling on the initial prescribed date... I may toss a few bucks that way; need to mull it over a bit longer. 2-week turnaround is nice and short, regardless. I'm not sure that's the right move. We already passed the initial date, and it was already moved from Nov 5 to Nov 3. It could possibly move but I suspect Boehner is just going to put up a clean debt increase and pass it with Dem votes + a few GOPers prior to that. After Nov 3 they have to prioritize spending which means a technical default.
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Oct 20, 2015 20:41
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Nintendo Kid posted:Bet was $2000 on "No, Webb will not secure the 2016 nomination", return was $2070.48 because the chance for yes was very low already. you just wait for chafeementum. lot's of people in this country who sign things without reading them, and he speaks to their experience
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Oct 20, 2015 20:41
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I don't know what you're going to do with any money you make off No on the Debt Ceiling since we then enter a financial Armageddon.
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Oct 20, 2015 20:48
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Nintendo Kid posted:I did $2000 on No back in seotember for "will x be the democratic candidate" on everyone but Clinton and Sanders. Safe bets after all. 3% in one month is 36% YOY, not bad at all.
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Oct 20, 2015 21:07
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Gyges posted:I don't know what you're going to do with any money you make off No on the Debt Ceiling since we then enter a financial Armageddon. Can we bet in Euros?
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Oct 20, 2015 21:15
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Concerned Citizen posted:Can we bet in Euros? Gold bullion or yen only. If my North Korea nuke = NO bid doesn't pay off, then maybe just bullion.
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Oct 20, 2015 21:51
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This trolling is like something Onion Biden would do.
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Oct 20, 2015 22:34
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Concerned Citizen posted:I'm not sure that's the right move. We already passed the initial date, and it was already moved from Nov 5 to Nov 3. It could possibly move but I suspect Boehner is just going to put up a clean debt increase and pass it with Dem votes + a few GOPers prior to that. After Nov 3 they have to prioritize spending which means a technical default. I think you're right about this, at least as long as Boehner is Speaker. It's pretty safe to resolve as YES, but I don't think it will be a straight line between here and there. The tea party, freedom caucus, or whatever you want to call them will do what they can to drive the car off the cliff. Right wing talk radio will get everyone excited and it could go right down to the wire. I'm going to dabble in, see what I can get in the 20's for NO and see if I can double my money at some point.
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Oct 21, 2015 02:57
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