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nachos posted:
Wrap it up
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Oct 22, 2015 03:43
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Vox Nihili posted:Just put in a buy order for 200 Yes on Ryan shares @ 85c on the latest news. Best of luck, goons. I'm now the proud owner of 500 Yes shares. May god have mercy on my idiot gambling soul.
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Oct 22, 2015 03:46
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I blew my time budget for the month managing my Biden. It was fun but I'm splitting all my money into Gore not running for President, Gingrich not being speaker, Fiorina and Bush not hitting their numbers and Carson hitting his. If all goes well I will make another $10 or so.
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Oct 22, 2015 04:00
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I blew my time budget for the month managing my Biden. It was fun but I'm splitting all my money into Gore not running for President, Gingrich not being speaker, Fiorina and Bush not hitting their numbers and Carson hitting his. If all goes well I will make another $10 or so. I plan to get into the exciting game of penny arbitrage, myself.
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Oct 22, 2015 04:33
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Anyone have any idea about the Portugal elections for the Prime Minister? The prices on it are insanely disparate so there's probably some decent money to be made. Right now you can buy Yes ant 72 and No at 85, with sell offers at 15 and 28 respectively.
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Oct 22, 2015 04:57
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Gyges posted:Anyone have any idea about the Portugal elections for the Prime Minister? The prices on it are insanely disparate so there's probably some decent money to be made. Right now you can buy Yes ant 72 and No at 85, with sell offers at 15 and 28 respectively. It looks like they had their own Biden moment where something that seemed likely in many people's eyes suddenly reversed, except in a market with barely any liquidity. There are only 393 shares outstanding so I doubt there will be much in the way of money to be made.
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Oct 22, 2015 05:10
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No on "Will Jim Webb become a third-party presidential candidate this year?" seems like a pretty good buy at 67 cents unless there's something I don't know.
platzapS has issued a correction as of 07:59 on Oct 22, 2015 |
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Oct 22, 2015 07:57
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He dropped out specifically to explore a third-party bid. That said, 0% of the country supports him and a run is unlikely.
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Oct 22, 2015 08:18
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You know, I just realize. I started using this site back in july, and in the intervening three and a half months, I've managed to take my initial deposit of $100 and turn it into a grand. gently caress.
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Oct 22, 2015 08:31
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Yeah I'm buying up a bunch at 88 -- with that much of the Tea Party saying they'll vote for him, it's essentially over. No one else will have nearly enough support.
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Oct 22, 2015 14:03
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For those looking for an easy way to make some pennies, you can buy into this Hillary poll at 95c, it's as close to a sure thing as you could hope for: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1275/Will-primary-polling-give-Clinton-at-least-40-on-October-31#openoffers
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Oct 22, 2015 16:19
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Re the Coelho talk: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/portugals-president-address-nation-seen-naming-pm-173049127--business.html LISBON (Reuters) - Portugal's president will address the nation on Thursday evening, when he is expected to name caretaker prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho to form a new government. Passos Coelho's centre-right coalition won the most votes in an Oct. 4 general election but fell short of a majority in parliament. The opposition Socialists have pushed for an alternative government together with two far left parties. But, the president is likely to follow Portuguese political tradition and name the candidate whose party won the most votes to form a government. The president will make his statement shortly after 1900 GMT (8 p.m. BT), a spokeswoman said. The political wrangling has prompted concerns that it could blight Portugal's nascent economic recovery, just a year after it finished a bailout. Passos Coelho's government launched harsh austerity and big tax hikes under the bailout, causing a 3-year recession. Passos Coelho's government could soon come under threat as both the Communists and Left Bloc have said they would attempt to topple his administration in parliament. A new government has 10 days to present its programme to parliament for a vote. Socialist leader Antonio Costa is working to create a government together with the Communists and Left Bloc. He argues that the majority in parliament handed to these three parties in the election shows voters want to move away from the austerity policies of the centre-right. (Reporting by Axel Bugge; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)
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Oct 22, 2015 19:08
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So what did people pick up for the CNBC debate shares? I decided to grab some Rubio.No, they were the cheapest and I honestly can't see CNBC declaring him the winner.
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Oct 22, 2015 21:53
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lelandjs posted:So what did people pick up for the CNBC debate shares? I decided to grab some Rubio.No, they were the cheapest and I honestly can't see CNBC declaring him the winner. The debate stuff is too risky for me. It's hard to tell who is actually going to do well - maybe the safest bet would be to declare trump the loser simply because he's already the frontrunner, but even that's not a sure thing.
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Oct 22, 2015 21:55
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lelandjs posted:So what did people pick up for the CNBC debate shares? I decided to grab some Rubio.No, they were the cheapest and I honestly can't see CNBC declaring him the winner. The way the winner is picked is by the biggest bump in the polling averages. Not CNBC picking the winner.
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Oct 22, 2015 22:12
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READ THE RULES BEFORE BUYING
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Oct 22, 2015 22:17
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I read the rules, and I disagree with them  And now I'm gonna lose money on Rubio.
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Oct 22, 2015 22:28
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lelandjs posted:I read the rules, and I disagree with them Buying No in multi-candidate markets is generally the safest gamble you can make so you'll probably be fine.
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Oct 22, 2015 22:52
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Paul Ryan officially running for speaker.
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Oct 22, 2015 23:51
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Vox Nihili posted:Paul Ryan officially running for speaker. poo poo.
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Oct 23, 2015 00:12
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Real glad I didn't touch that, then.
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Oct 23, 2015 00:33
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Vox Nihili posted:Paul Ryan officially running for speaker. That market only closes when he's officially sworn in, though.
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Oct 23, 2015 00:48
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Fuschia tude posted:That market only closes when he's officially sworn in, though. Right, but whether he would run remained in question. He has the endorsements of the major caucuses and a tacit semi-endorsement from the Freedom Caucus ("only" 66%+ support). There is nothing left in his way other than the formalities.
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Oct 23, 2015 00:53
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Vox Nihili posted:Right, but whether he would run remained in question. He has the endorsements of the major caucuses and a tacit semi-endorsement from the Freedom Caucus ("only" 66%+ support). There is nothing left in his way other than the formalities. I just sold, so he'd better get the position or else I'm going to have to kick myself even harder. Man, I wasted like $300 from my Biden winnings. I think that's my biggest single loss yet.
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Oct 23, 2015 00:58
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Wanamingo posted:I just sold, so he'd better get the position or else I'm going to have to kick myself even harder. I threw in $30 right after clearing my biden winnings and didn't check til just now, so I'm in about the same boat.
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Oct 23, 2015 01:09
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I bought 3 bucks worth of dirt cheap No on the not at all unfathomable event that the Freedom Caucus, in whole or part, go rogue and vote against him.
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Oct 23, 2015 01:10
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Wanamingo posted:I just sold, so he'd better get the position or else I'm going to have to kick myself even harder. Probably a good call if you got 10c/share or so. Market is too tight now for much opportunity in either direction.
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Oct 23, 2015 02:25
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I bought a poo poo load of Yes on Ryan (because he is dumb enough to take the job) a few days ago but that paid out yesterday. Should I just buy a ton of NOs on everything hoping that the linked pricing fucks everything up?
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Oct 23, 2015 06:28
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I looked in the thread but didnt find anything: Is there a way to sign up for this from Canada?
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Oct 23, 2015 06:59
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snakeandbake posted:I looked in the thread but didnt find anything: There are furrners here, so it's possible. Try using a BSUS address if asked.
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Oct 23, 2015 08:01
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Chafee is out, not that there was a lot of money to be made in that market anyway because it was obvious, but still.
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Oct 23, 2015 13:37
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Made a small but good short term return by getting in on the Democrats winning the LA Gov's race at .28, and getting out at .39. Vitter has been horrid in the 1-on-1 polls lately against JBE, I'm wondering if I got out too soon.
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Oct 23, 2015 13:51
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Stereotype posted:I bought a poo poo load of Yes on Ryan (because he is dumb enough to take the job) a few days ago but that paid out yesterday. There's no telling when linked pricing will actually happen. They should just make all new markets linked and leave the old ones unlinked, they are labeled after all. I'm looking forward to my hail mary yes bets being cheaper.
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Oct 23, 2015 14:21
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railroad terror posted:Made a small but good short term return by getting in on the Democrats winning the LA Gov's race at .28, and getting out at .39. Vitter has been horrid in the 1-on-1 polls lately against JBE, I'm wondering if I got out too soon. Never kick yourself over quitting while ahead.
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Oct 23, 2015 14:57
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He's just Biden his time boys
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Oct 23, 2015 16:40
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railroad terror posted:Made a small but good short term return by getting in on the Democrats winning the LA Gov's race at .28, and getting out at .39. Vitter has been horrid in the 1-on-1 polls lately against JBE, I'm wondering if I got out too soon. Yeah but doesn't the jungle primary basically guarantee a republican win? Right now the democrat has like 40% of the vote compared to the republicans splitting at something like 38, 10, and 5, but since the democrat won't win with 50%, they go to a run off of the top 2 and the republicans come out to vote for their second place guy and he ends up with 53%.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:01
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What could have been.
Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 17:16 on Oct 23, 2015 |
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Oct 23, 2015 17:09
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah but doesn't the jungle primary basically guarantee a republican win? Right now the democrat has like 40% of the vote compared to the republicans splitting at something like 38, 10, and 5, but since the democrat won't win with 50%, they go to a run off of the top 2 and the republicans come out to vote for their second place guy and he ends up with 53%. Not necessarily. Vitter has a lot of detractors among Republicans, and even if he comes out with a plurality of the Rep share in the jungle primary, there may be a lot of disaffected Reps not happy with Jindal and Vitter and the current state of LA politics. Not that this guarantees a JBE win, but with unfavorables so high, it gives JBE a reasonable chance in a 2-way runoff. At least more reasonable than Dems usually have in LA Gubernatorial elections. The post-jungle primary polls will really indicate whether or not Vitter's in as weak a position as he appears to be.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:41
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I just put in a couple of buy orders for cheap "Wins the CNBC Debate" shares for Christie and Cruz. At 10 cents per, I can put $10 on both of them and not feel bad if they don't pull through, but I have a feeling that one of those two will have a good night. Christie's been gaining a bit of momentum here and there over the last few months, and Ted Cruz is about due for a big win. And if Rubio wins? Whatever, I'm out $20. I still won a good bit from the Biden bet to play with.
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Oct 23, 2015 20:21
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I suddenly found I had no available funds and looked at what I had bought: NO on all four tranches of NURSES. I was so relieved when I woke up.
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Oct 23, 2015 20:31
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