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The Iron Rose posted:It would literally be more devastating than a small-scale nuclear war. At least economically, yes.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:29
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Um, I think you guys are ignoring that a whiz kid policy wonk crunched the numbers and said it'd all be cool
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Oct 23, 2015 17:29
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haveblue posted:In other words, hitting the debt limit would have the same effect on the world economy as the Big One would have on San Francisco. It's actually fairly difficult to imagine what kind of effect it would have because it's completely outside the realm of any hypothetical. You might as well prepare for Fury Road.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:31
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Epic High Five posted:Um, I think you guys are ignoring that a whiz kid policy wonk crunched the numbers and said it'd all be cool https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksXRFRCUatc
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Oct 23, 2015 17:31
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but yes, there's absolutely no precedent for what the us breaching the debt limit would look like.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:31
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No one having any idea what would happen is the scary part, honestly. There's a non-insane line of thinking where it doesn't lead to an armageddon far worse than 2008 but it's a fringe opinion. You'd be basically relying on the incredibly fickle financial markets to somehow just shrug and go "those rascally Republicans!" and wait a day or two for them to get their act together before hitting the big red button.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:34
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:but yes, there's absolutely no precedent for what the us breaching the debt limit would look like. Partially because there's absolutely no reason for it to ever happen unless we go crazy and do it on purpose. It's like someone refusing to pay their electric bill when they live in a house made entirely out of hundred dollar bills.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:37
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Rhesus Pieces posted:Partially because there's absolutely no reason for it to ever happen unless we go crazy and do it on purpose. It's like someone refusing to pay their electric bill when they live in a house made entirely out of hundred dollar bills. Basically, though its even dumber because the debt limit doesn't, as I am sure you know, equate to any new debt, it's just authorizing treasury to pay the debt we've already encumbered. Really, the first thing a democratic house/senate should do is get rid of the dumb loving thing.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:38
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And, just to reiterate, even if we knew for a fact that the donor class would always smack the Republicans upside the head to get them to increase the debt limit at the last minute, the danger of waiting until the last minute is some critical dude dying of a heart attack, or some message not getting through in time, or some hiccup in the system that delays the increase to where the breach actually happens.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:39
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pathetic little tramp posted:Isn't the debt limit like 10x as disastrous as a shutdown too? 2008 would look fantastic by comparison. Our only real hope would be if the major creditors chose to ignore it and entered the figures into the system like they had just been paid and chose to ignore that they weren't, then smacked around congress until they passed something to match the charade We'd need the rich to show the same kind of thinking as John D Rockafeller did during the Long Depression, and I don't think that's very likely
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Oct 23, 2015 17:39
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Fried Chicken posted:Here is a very interesting take here on a new metric for campaign viability The article basically reads "It's gonna be Trump, shitlords, deal with it".
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Oct 23, 2015 17:39
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Joementum posted:HuffPo went with "Benghazi Bust". Drudge has moved on to covering weather. Miseryyyy
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Oct 23, 2015 17:43
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When it comes time to vote for Speaker, all the Dems should cast a Yea for Paul Ryan and watch the GOP implode.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:50
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Hitting that debt limit would really be an unprecedented clusterfuck-and-a-half but as many people have pointed out if that sort of threat to global financial stability starts to be a possibility then the financial elites that have politician's balls in a vice will start to make phone calls and you'll get really sudden changes of heart all over the place. It's not something that seems likely to happen. The damage that concerns me the most about playing chicken with the fiscal cliff is the kind of stuff represented by the S&P downgrading the US. Not that action specifically, but the idea behind it. The US doesn't have to actually default to make people start thinking the republicans are a pack of god drat lunatics that are running the asylum and there's no telling exactly what bed (floor?) they're going to poo poo on next. Financial markets as a whole hate hate hate risk, and as soon as you even begin to introduce even the seeds of that kind of doubt things start to go really, really bad. We're insulated from it at the moment because the Euro is looking sideways at Greece, China is finding out 10% plus growth every year is unsustainable and the Ruble is, well, from Russia but the kinds of changes these god drat lunatics are starting have almost unstoppable institutional inertia once you get them started. And we don't know when that inertia is going to get started, if it hasn't already.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:50
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Fox Ironic posted:When it comes time to vote for Speaker, all the Dems should cast a Yea for Paul Ryan and watch the GOP implode. Ryan is going to be speaker, dems voting for him wouldn't mean anything.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:51
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Never mind that every time the GOP even raises the prospect of the debt limit going kaboom, they're also increasing the risk you take when buying US treasury instruments (which are supposed to be solid as a rock, in that if your T-bills somehow go poof, it means you have bigger things to worry about like an alien invasion or a nuclear war), thereby increasing the interest rate the US government has to pay to get loans. Like many Republican policies, it's fiscally very irresponsible. Edit: beaten
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Oct 23, 2015 17:52
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Cummings is about to announce that the Democrats are leaving the Benghazi committee. Good timing on this, as the coverage from yesterday gives them plenty of reasons.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:54
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ˆˆˆˆˆpoo poo I dunno about that. I mean it was apparent yesterday that the hearing was bullshit, but this gives the right wing actual red meat to chew on and lets them deflect from Hillary scorching them. Is there any way to know exactly what payments the Treasury would have to miss first? I'd like to know if Lockheed Martin is due for a 14.8 billion dollar payment for some defence work and it suddenly won't happen. Maybe that'd message better than the vaguely scary "defaullllt".
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Oct 23, 2015 17:55
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:Basically, though its even dumber because the debt limit doesn't, as I am sure you know, equate to any new debt, it's just authorizing treasury to pay the debt we've already encumbered. At which point republicans will equate abolishing the debt limit with endorsing unlimited debt, and the attack ads will write themselves.  fiscal irresponsibility!
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Oct 23, 2015 17:55
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:Ryan is going to be speaker, dems voting for him wouldn't mean anything. Dem endorsement of Ryan = low-info Repubs declaring him King of the RINOs and the entire fascist wing of Congress collectively cumming their pants at thought of more obstructionism. I want the GOP to end in flames before the General Election.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:56
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Also, McCarthy said this morning that the House will consider "legislation relating to the debt ceiling" next week, so I'm expecting some bill that raises it but forces Hillary to admit she did 9/11 and defunds Planned Parenthood.
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Oct 23, 2015 17:57
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Joementum posted:Cummings is about to announce that the Democrats are leaving the Benghazi committee. Good timing on this, as the coverage from yesterday gives them plenty of reasons. lol Joementum posted:Also, McCarthy said this morning that the House will consider "legislation relating to the debt ceiling" next week, so I'm expecting some bill that raises it but forces Hillary to admit she did 9/11 and defunds Planned Parenthood. double lol
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Oct 23, 2015 17:58
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Joementum posted:Also, McCarthy said this morning that the House will consider "legislation relating to the debt ceiling" next week, so I'm expecting some bill that raises it but forces Hillary to admit she did 9/11 and defunds Planned Parenthood.  Glad you're back, Joe. My lurking didn't feel the same while you were gone.
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Oct 23, 2015 18:04
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Poor Joe, can't he come and go as he pleases
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Oct 23, 2015 18:10
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Gonna make a vigil thread next time and hold livestreams of goons singing "oh Joe, where did you go? The US POL thread needs you bro"
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Oct 23, 2015 18:16
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pathetic little tramp posted:Is there any way to know exactly what payments the Treasury would have to miss first? While I was looking at this, I did find this article about the last time the US defaulted, surprisingly in 1979. It's enlightening because in that situation the default was essentially administrative - congress actually raised the debt ceiling on time, but the treasury office had trouble managing to actually get payments completed on time to everyone. The result was what they called a 'delay' and meant that it took a week or more longer to pay some individual investors. This 'default' was barely noted by the public and there was no actual questions of whether the government could/would pay, it was just a matter of getting it done for the small group of affected bonds. All the same, it's estimated that that little hiccup and the effect it had on rates cost the government about $12 billion over time. Now imagine what would happen if 1) it wasn't an administrative hiccup, but an all-out 'we have no money now'; 2) was affecting all levels of investors and 3) was immediately and globally known to everyone.
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Oct 23, 2015 18:16
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Ashcans posted:No, there isn't. The treasury system is not designed to organize bills and payments in any particular order, which is why they can't follow dumb plans like 'pay bond payments and not other things'. They just have a pile of cash and pay whatever comes in as it does and that's it (ok it's going to be more complicated than that but it's the essence). Which means that small payments are actually more likely to be ok, and the first things to get missed are going to be big payments that exceed the dwindling pile of cash on hand. What it will be is an exciting mystery! The party of fiscal responsibility sure loves flushing tax dollars down the ivory throne.
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Oct 23, 2015 18:18
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Oof, this title is just mean, entitled bastard that Chafee is notwithstanding: Why Did Lincoln Chafee Even Run? In a year of inexplicable presidential candidacies, his stood out for its utter pointlessness.
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Oct 23, 2015 18:21
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According to Politico, the hour between 9pm and 10pm yesterday (the Clinton/Benghazi hearing) was the campaign's best fundraising hour to date.
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Oct 23, 2015 18:22
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Rhesus Pieces posted:Maybe not Jeb!: Nah, I'd be surprised if the joyful turtle wasn't simply digging himself a little den in the muddy lake bottom, cutting down his resource expenditure, and going into a state of fiscal hibernation to wait for more favorable times- which may or may not arrive. All of the establishment teams (even Jindal, lmao) have been talking up "survive until the end and have your moment when Trump and the rest have finally and inevitably imploded" as the winning idea (I'm sure potential voters love hearing that from their Prezzy-to-be). Jeb! certainly has the finances to do it if he tightens his belt and I'm sure it'll be hilarious to watch him awkwardly putter around and act like he's in competition against whichever candidates are actually on top at that point. That said, I can't help but be convinced that if he ends up the nominee through some miracle/party voodoo by virtue of his simply having survived long enough, you can count on Republican voters to hold their noses and back him at the ballot against Hillary. But if/when Trump's springtime comes to an end before the primary, I can't imagine he'd stay quiet and respectfully let Jeb take the nom. He'd be gracious with several other candidates, but he'd let everyone have it over a Jeb! ticket.
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Oct 23, 2015 18:24
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I was watching The hearing then. The house GOP has probably helped HRC more than any other institution it's just so funny.
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Oct 23, 2015 18:26
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I demand a Congressional Investigation Committee to investigate the Benghazi Investigation Committee.
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Oct 23, 2015 18:26
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:According to Politico, the hour between 9pm and 10pm yesterday (the Clinton/Benghazi hearing) was the campaign's best fundraising hour to date. cackle
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Oct 23, 2015 18:27
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pathetic little tramp posted:ˆˆˆˆˆpoo poo I dunno about that. I mean it was apparent yesterday that the hearing was bullshit, but this gives the right wing actual red meat to chew on and lets them deflect from Hillary scorching them. The goal here is not to maximize Republican tears, it's to pour fuel on the "this committee is a witch hunt" fire. Ashcans posted:No, there isn't. The treasury system is not designed to organize bills and payments in any particular order, which is why they can't follow dumb plans like 'pay bond payments and not other things'. They just have a pile of cash and pay whatever comes in as it does and that's it (ok it's going to be more complicated than that but it's the essence). Which means that small payments are actually more likely to be ok, and the first things to get missed are going to be big payments that exceed the dwindling pile of cash on hand. What it will be is an exciting mystery! Missing a contractor payment or not mailing out Social Security checks may not qualify as a default, but it'll still have a negative impact.
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Oct 23, 2015 18:27
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Jackson Taus posted:The goal here is not to maximize Republican tears, it's to pour fuel on the "this committee is a witch hunt" fire. One leads to the other.
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Oct 23, 2015 18:32
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Stepping up from Wednesday's record seizure at PP offices, Texas has now subpoenaed the records of planned parenthood patients who donated fetal tissue
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Oct 23, 2015 18:43
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Someone's going to get murdered over that.
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Oct 23, 2015 18:44
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DemeaninDemon posted:Someone's going to get murdered over that. I think that's the idea.
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Oct 23, 2015 18:46
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Fried Chicken posted:Stepping up from Wednesday's record seizure at PP offices, Texas has now subpoenaed the records of planned parenthood patients who donated fetal tissue .....what, why?
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Oct 23, 2015 18:46
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Fried Chicken posted:Stepping up from Wednesday's record seizure at PP offices, Texas has now subpoenaed the records of planned parenthood patients who donated fetal tissue That's so far over the line. Jesus
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Oct 23, 2015 18:47
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