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Hollismason posted:I was just using the statistical average of Presidents an previous office held. Yeah, but that doesn't really tell you anything. 100% of Presidents have been men. Therefore, all you have to become President is be a man. ...that probably doesn't work out in practice. The question should be, if I hold office X, how likely am I to go on to become President. Otherwise, the chances of a President having previously been an X, are going to be modified based on the total number of Xs.
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Oct 24, 2015 04:23
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Joementum posted:Yeah, but what's the track record for billionaire real estate moguls? Well i mean didn't Jefferson own a shitload of land. moebius2778 posted:Yeah, but that doesn't really tell you anything. 100% of Presidents have been men. Therefore, all you have to become President is be a man. Like I said it's just a statistic and doesn't really mean anything. It's just interesting to say " Oh I can tell you 22 of our Presidents have also been Governor" or something else Trivial Pursuity. I am saying though that the idea that the Vice Presidency is the most efficient and best way to become President is false. Hollismason fucked around with this message at 04:27 on Oct 24, 2015 |
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Oct 24, 2015 04:24
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Edit: Whoops. Double Post.
Hollismason fucked around with this message at 04:27 on Oct 24, 2015 |
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Oct 24, 2015 04:25
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moebius2778 posted:Yeah, but that doesn't really tell you anything. 100% of Presidents have been men. Therefore, all you have to become President is be a man. The secretary of state is historically equally effective, until you take into account betting on something awful happening to the president.
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Oct 24, 2015 04:27
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moebius2778 posted:...is there any other political office with better odds? I mean, those aren't good odds, but ... it's entirely possible it's the best of a bad set of choices. Nope. Unless you count "Supreme Commander Allied Expeditionary Force" or similar one-offs like that. Hollismason posted:I just got into a long discussion about Biden and how really being Vice President is not the path to the White House people seem to think it is. Just how many Vice Presidents have become President? Only 14 over half of which were because of the President dying. 14 out of 47 Vice-Presidents went on to become President, meaning 29% of VPs eventually became Presidents one way or another. Compared to Senators and Congressmen, of whom fewer than 1% eventually became President, that's a phenomenally high number. I didn't check the numbers for total number of Governors ever, but I'd be shocked if the odds are much better than for Senators. So getting named VP increases your chances of becoming President dramatically. Hollismason posted:Even before that though you had 35 years of Vice Presidents either succeeding by death or resignation. There's only Bush in there. Becoming President by death/resignation of your predecessor is a perfectly valid way of becoming President. You get all the powers of the office, after all. Worst case you get screwed out of 2 years by term limits, best case the term limit rules let you serve an extra 2 years. Hollismason posted:Looks to me like Governor. That's only half the statistic that matters - the other half is the population size. We've had 1963 Senators ever, so if 16 of them eventually became President, that's a 0.8% chance of randomly selected Senator becoming President, historically. I don't know how many Governors we've ever had, but certainly it's somewhere around a thousand or two - there's only one per state, but the terms are shorter and often term-limited. So even in the best case that's still like what, a 3% chance of a Governor eventually becoming President? Whether or not you count death/resignation accessions, the fact is that VPs are more likely to become President. This: Hollismason posted:percentage chance of becoming President because of position. is the metric most relevant to this: Hollismason posted:the idea that the Vice Presidency is the most efficient and best way to become President. Jackson Taus fucked around with this message at 04:31 on Oct 24, 2015 |
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Oct 24, 2015 04:28
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Joementum posted:Yeah, but what's the track record for billionaire real estate moguls? George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Andrew Jackson... Pretty good I'd say.
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Oct 24, 2015 04:32
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Jackson Taus posted:14 out of 47 Vice-Presidents went on to become President, meaning 29% of VPs eventually became Presidents one way or another. Compared to Senators and Congressmen, of whom fewer than 1% eventually became President, that's a phenomenally high number. I didn't check the numbers for total number of Governors ever, but I'd be shocked if the odds are much better than for Senators. So getting named VP increases your chances of becoming President dramatically. I think it is reasonable to expect that a modern presidential assassination is deeply unlikely to happen, though, which changes the math somewhat.
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Oct 24, 2015 04:32
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By that logic being the President of the United states is the most dangerous job in the United States with one of the highest worker fatalities in the United States.
Hollismason fucked around with this message at 04:47 on Oct 24, 2015 |
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Oct 24, 2015 04:45
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evilweasel posted:Yes. Even the HFC can tell the difference between Democrats providing the necessary votes for Ryan to become speaker and Democrats voting for him when he already has 218 Republican votes. It is a stupid idea. It's not that they can't it's that it doesn't matter. "Supported the democrat backed Paul Ryan" primary attack ads are just waiting to be filled.
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Oct 24, 2015 04:49
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On other topics what's the over under on Hurricane Patricia causing a influx of immigrants into the United States.
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Oct 24, 2015 04:50
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I was just wondering, how much of the 2012 GOP machine still has the keys to the whole thing? If a non-Trump gets the nod, will we once again see the pre-existing GOTV structure ripped out of all areas and replaced by one that straight up doesn't work and is centered far away and run by a buddy of the candidate? The Rove-like fantasy of "unskewing" polls only to have Nate Silver take a huge dump right on your face? Obviously if Trump gets the nod, he's just going to do exactly that but it will be himself that he's outsourcing this work to, and unlike any other candidate from what I can tell he's actually got a ground game going so that just means things will continue as is, which is to say he's going to bite his thumb as Reince and do god only knows what.
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Oct 24, 2015 04:52
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Hollismason posted:On other topics what's the over under on Hurricane Patricia causing a influx of immigrants into the United States.
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Oct 24, 2015 04:59
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30.5 Days posted:I think it is reasonable to expect that a modern presidential assassination is deeply unlikely to happen, though, which changes the math somewhat. The secret service is unable to keep crazy people from running through the residency so I wouldn't take your bet.
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Oct 24, 2015 04:59
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They're just lucky no white supremacist has tried the old hooker standing under a cardboard box and there's a stick holding up the box and a string attached to the stick trick. They'd basically immediately have full access to whatever official they want as the agents go all Elmer Fudd.
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Oct 24, 2015 05:04
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30.5 Days posted:I think it is reasonable to expect that a modern presidential assassination is deeply unlikely to happen, though, which changes the math somewhat. I think it's too small a sample size to say for sure. I mean Reagan took a bullet center-mass, couple inches in another direction and he could've died. Truman had a famous assassination attempt turn into a shoot-out at Blair House, if the gunmen had been a bit quicker on the draw when he stuck his head out the window, he wouldn't have made it. Bin Laden almost got Clinton in 1996, but the Secret Service got tipped off and managed to re-route the convoy in time. There was also the time someone fired an automatic weapon onto the White House Lawn at what the shooter mistakenly thought was Clinton. Somebody managed to throw a live grenade at George W Bush, which fortunately didn't go off. I'm not trying to say the Secret Service is incompetent or anything, I'm just saying that it's very easy to imagine an alternate history where we lost 3-4 Presidents in the last century due to assassins, instead of just JFK. Also I think the odds of impeachment/resignation have also gone up a decent bit due to our more politicized environment. Hollismason posted:By that logic being the President of the United states is the most dangerous job in the United States with one of the highest worker fatalities in the United States. Yes, with the obvious caveat that you've got a microscopic sample size and thus can't take such statistics too seriously. Jackson Taus fucked around with this message at 05:16 on Oct 24, 2015 |
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Oct 24, 2015 05:14
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Jackson Taus posted:Somebody managed to throw a live grenade at George W Bush, which fortunately didn't go off. You just made me imagine a President Cheney and I don't think I will ever forgive you for this v v v previously scouring the thought of this from my mind. still remember the shoe guy though v v v Epic High Five fucked around with this message at 05:23 on Oct 24, 2015 |
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Oct 24, 2015 05:15
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Epic High Five posted:You just made me imagine a President Cheney and I don't think I will ever forgive you for this Uhhh where were you, Sleeping Beauty?
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Oct 24, 2015 05:21
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Jackson Taus posted:Somebody managed to throw a live grenade at George W Bush, which fortunately didn't go off. If the grenade was like other objects thrown by angry Iraqis Bush would have thrown that thing back if it was live.
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Oct 24, 2015 05:26
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This is Trey Gowdy's official portrait.
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Oct 24, 2015 06:00
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Not to speak ill of the dead or anything, but is that crazy ultra-right wing lady who's been appearing on the cable news shows supposed to be Vilerat's mother or stepmother?
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Oct 24, 2015 06:02
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:This is Trey Gowdy's official portrait. A younger Trey Gowdy? 
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Oct 24, 2015 06:43
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:This is Trey Gowdy's official portrait. Looks like he's wearing a yeti scalp for a hat.
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Oct 24, 2015 06:47
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Mr Interweb posted:Not to speak ill of the dead or anything, but is that crazy ultra-right wing lady who's been appearing on the cable news shows supposed to be Vilerat's mother or stepmother? Mother, yes.
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Oct 24, 2015 06:53
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Mr Interweb posted:Not to speak ill of the dead or anything, but is that crazy ultra-right wing lady who's been appearing on the cable news shows supposed to be Vilerat's mother or stepmother? Mother
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Oct 24, 2015 07:01
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The hell? That's really weird then cause she keeps claiming that the state department wouldn't give her any info cause she's not his "immediate family".
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Oct 24, 2015 07:03
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Mr Interweb posted:The hell? That's really weird then cause she keeps claiming that the state department wouldn't give her any info cause she's not his "immediate family". My understanding is that Vilerat's wife counted as his "immediate family." And since his mother was somewhat estranged from him because of his choice of wife... Well, you get the picture.
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Oct 24, 2015 07:05
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Holy poo poo. The War on Drugs might actually be working!quote:Federal authorities have confiscated shipments of a lethal-injection chemical that Arizona and Texas tried to bring in from abroad, saying such imports are illegal — a move that compounds the nation's severe shortage of execution drugs.
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Oct 24, 2015 07:17
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ComradeCosmobot posted:My understanding is that Vilerat's wife counted as his "immediate family." And since his mother was somewhat estranged from him because of his choice of wife... Well, you get the picture. Ah okay, that makes a bit more sense at least.
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Oct 24, 2015 07:17
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Trabisnikof posted:Holy poo poo. The War on Drugs might actually be working!
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Oct 24, 2015 07:39
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had someone tell me we should have the Death Penalty because it helps prosecutors get plea deals
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Oct 24, 2015 07:40
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Hollismason posted:had someone tell me we should have the Death Penalty because it helps prosecutors get plea deals Lawmakers in my state abolished it in a mindblowing display of intellectual consistency - taking away the power of the government to kill people is still taking power away from the government, and that of life and death at that. Sure enough though, someone let the loving cockroaches loose and now there's a petition to have it put to a referendum. Literally wolves and a sheep deciding on what's for dinner.
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Oct 24, 2015 07:46
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I at first misunderstood them. We were in class and i asked what she was working on for her paper and she said something like " The Death Penalty and Plea Bargaining" and I was like " Yes, it can create situations where if faced with death even if innocent someone may plea guilty" and she was like " Yea it's good ". O_o I have to take this required class for my program and it's just like the most insane group of people like " Mandatory Military Service, Death Penalty, Ethics are derived from law. " I swear to god Someone actually said " Well if you don't pay fire insurance or you are late and your house is on fire then they should just let it burn" " Well what if there are children inside?" " That's not the firefighters responsibility because the parents didn't pay for insurance" Hollismason fucked around with this message at 07:53 on Oct 24, 2015 |
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Oct 24, 2015 07:49
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Hollismason posted:I swear to god Someone actually said " Well if you don't pay fire insurance or you are late and your house is on fire then they should just let it burn" " Well what if there are children inside?" " That's not the firefighters responsibility because the parents didn't pay for insurance"
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Oct 24, 2015 08:41
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Hollismason posted:I swear to god Someone actually said " Well if you don't pay fire insurance or you are late and your house is on fire then they should just let it burn" " Well what if there are children inside?" " That's not the firefighters responsibility because the parents didn't pay for insurance" look crassus was a good role-model alright
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Oct 24, 2015 08:44
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"Muscular Christian values" would be a great name for...something, I dunno what exactly,
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Oct 24, 2015 09:02
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Lol muscular christian virtues e;f,b I'VE GOT SOME MUSCULAR CHRISTIAN VIRTUES FOR YOU BROTHA GONNA GIVE YOU THE BIBLE THUMPER -The Evangelist, pro wrestler
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Oct 24, 2015 09:02
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"a feminized version of Christianity that is only about softer values, like compassion"
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Oct 24, 2015 09:08
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I may physically be overweight and out of shape, but Christian values are muscular, strong, and impresses people I mingle with (of the opposite sex).
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Oct 24, 2015 09:14
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Magres posted:Lol muscular christian virtues 
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Oct 24, 2015 09:17
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