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Smoothrich posted:Jeb and Rubio have no message either. Trump will Make America Great Again, and Ben Carson is the world's greatest neurosurgeon who rose from poverty to leadership and will fix problems with his doctor brain and warm Christian values. Is this just a non-sequitur? Because those aren't messages. That's a vague feel good slogan and a description of a person that doesn't include statesmanship qualifications.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:18
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Patter Song posted:The amazing thing about Jeb is that he has managed to undergo over three months of steadily losing ground and is only now acting like his campaign is actually in trouble or moving to try to address his problems. 40% payroll cuts three months out from Iowa when campaigns should be kicking it into high gear is a pretty terrible sign for his viability. I'm starting to move into the "Jeb can't recover" camp, especially if that quote from the Jake Tapper tweet is real, but IIRC McCain downsized his campaign about this time eight years ago and was considered DOA by the media. Granted Jeb!'s no McCain.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:18
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Patter Song posted:Romney was also doing far better than Jeb at this point in 2011. Marco Rubio seems to have been laying low as well. Once Trump sets in on him odds are pretty good that he starts folding to. Trump is going to hammer Bush right out of the race because, like walker, he's basically a wet fart stuffed into a suit who assumed he was going to be president from day one, causing him to invest in a hubristic amount of infrastructure and vanity spending. They were overconfident, dangerously over-extended, and not prepared for any kind of real challenge. Then when Rubio steps up everyone's going to remember why people were talking about him as a 'solid VP pick' at the beginning; he's not ready, and being next in line to be Trumped does not magically make him so. It's going to take something enormous (alright alright, 'yooge') to dislodge Trump, and it's probably not going to come from within the Republican party. Remember; if there was any realistic way to have stopped him by now, they would have done it. I hate to agree with smoothrich, but I'm getting really tired of seeing poll after poll of Trump at number one while idiotic talking heads who obviously aren't living in reality talk about someone like Ted Cruz getting the nom with a straight face. Really, the best hope the GOP has right now of getting control back of their party is Trump having a fatal heart attack. Their electorate is largely rejecting what little ideas on governance they still have, and Trump's competition is the only bigger joke than the man himself.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:19
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TheTatteredKing posted:Is this just a non-sequitur? Because those aren't messages. That's a vague feel good slogan and a description of a person that doesn't include statesmanship qualifications. lmao Hope and Change ring a bell?
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Oct 24, 2015 20:19
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:I'm starting to move into the "Jeb can't recover" camp, especially if that quote from the Jake Tapper tweet is real, but IIRC McCain downsized his campaign about this time eight years ago and was considered DOA by the media. Granted Jeb!'s no McCain. No, McCain's restructuring of his campaign and the layoffs etc. were in July of 2007, considerably earlier in the cycle.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:21
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Smoothrich posted:Hope and Change ring a bell?  Democrats for Trump!
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Oct 24, 2015 20:21
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FlamingLiberal posted:She's been on Twitter since 2013. That's also when she started supporting gay marriage... makes you think.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:21
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Joementum posted:I don't. I think they're most likely to win the nomination. I can understand Rubio at this point, but Jeb seems really unlikely to make a comeback. We're in uncharted waters here, not even McCain's "revival" compares to this.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:22
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Joementum posted:At this point in 2011 he had just said, "We can't have illegals, I'm running for office for Pete's sake!" This is key. Romney actually wanted to be President Jeb - "gently caress it, Elect Trump"
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Oct 24, 2015 20:22
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People aren't laying low, they are begging for money behind closed doors like typical politicians, that's all they do, even in office. Their job is to beg for money. Congress has a call center next door to beg all day. "Politics as usual."
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Oct 24, 2015 20:23
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Lotka Volterra posted:I can understand Rubio at this point, but Jeb seems really unlikely to make a comeback. We're in uncharted waters here, not even McCain's "revival" compares to this. Primary polls can change very rapidly. Remember when Rick Santorum went from an asterisk to winning Iowa in five days?
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Oct 24, 2015 20:23
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One thing to remember about the bravery of the USSR in WWII is that for the first two years they were allied with Germany. They even co-invaded Poland together. They then instructed Communist parties all over the world to apologize for Nazi actions and protest any military action against them by liberal fascists who were denounced as far worst for being hypocrites. It was only when Germany literally invaded Soviet territory that they suddenly remembered to be protectors of civilization and the fiercest enemies of Hitler, and had the other national parties turn on a dime and denounce Germany as a monster that must be stopped. The USSR suffered all of those casualties because they were defending themselves when they were forced to take a stand against the Nazis. This in itself is not ignoble, but I do not think it is comparable to the US sending troops over to entirely separate countries to fight alongside them.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:24
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I just want to remind everyone that the only person with worse negatives than Donald Trump is Jeb Bush, and the only one with higher favorable than Marco Rubio is Ben Carson.Joementum posted:Primary polls can change very rapidly. Remember when Rick Santorum went from an asterisk to winning Iowa in five days? Isn't that the case because people usually don't pay attention to these things until about a week out? Wouldn't it be different this time since everyone is paying attention? Montasque fucked around with this message at 20:27 on Oct 24, 2015 |
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Oct 24, 2015 20:24
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Really wonder what Bush's debate performance is gonna be like. Speaking of, doesn't Trump's book drop this week?
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Oct 24, 2015 20:24
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Smoothrich posted:Why do you think Jeb and Rubio are frontrunners? Seriously, I don't understand why people say it, its ignoring polling data and public opinion across America entirely. Jeb and Rubio have no message either. Trump will Make America Great Again, and Ben Carson is the world's greatest neurosurgeon who rose from poverty to leadership and will fix problems with his doctor brain and warm Christian values. What's Rubio got besides a weird unquenchable thirst? Jeb's foreign policy caused 9/11 and invaded Iraq. Coulter declared them both pro-amnesty. They poll in single digits for a reason. Full Battle Rattle posted:If you've got a viable, non-insane path for Jeb to clinch the nom his campaign is probably desperate enough to give a you a fairly well-paying job. Not as well paying as a few days ago, before he slashed his campaign staff and salaries, but it'll still be up there. Saying that Bush or Rubio are the most likely to win the nomination is absolutely a correct statement. There are multiple reasons for this some of which are party support, endorsements and field organization. If you feel that strongly where you think Bush = Scott Walker then maybe you should put 100k on Bush not winning. There's a reason Bush/Rubio are at the top of all betting markets without monetary caps (iirc they are still at the top of the $850 capped betting markets like PredictIt too). There are a billion reasons why Trump is a weak candidate and is not going to win the nomination.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:25
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Montasque posted:I just want to remind everyone that the only person with worse negatives than Donald Trump is Jeb Bush, and the only one with higher favorable than Marco Rubio is Ben Carson.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:27
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Oct 24, 2015 20:28
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Absurd Alhazred posted:One thing to remember about the bravery of the USSR in WWII is that for the first two years they were allied with Germany. They even co-invaded Poland together. They then instructed Communist parties all over the world to apologize for Nazi actions and protest any military action against them by liberal fascists who were denounced as far worst for being hypocrites. It was only when Germany literally invaded Soviet territory that they suddenly remembered to be protectors of civilization and the fiercest enemies of Hitler, and had the other national parties turn on a dime and denounce Germany as a monster that must be stopped. Which probably wouldn't have happened until much later if Hitler wasn't dumb enough to declare war on the US after Pearl Harbor though
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Oct 24, 2015 20:29
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Joementum posted:Primary polls can change very rapidly. Remember when Rick Santorum went from an asterisk to winning Iowa in five days? This is true, but his path just seems much harder than Rubio's. Donors are souring on him, voters have been soured on him, and he's even souring on his own campaign. It doesn't seem like a recipe for winning the primaries unless something really big changes in the next month or so.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:29
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Is that a breakfast pizza?
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Oct 24, 2015 20:30
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Nothing like enjoying a slice on the Sabbath.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:30
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Jeb can come back, he just needs to have his PAC's ad campaigns improve his favorability to the point where voters can stand him. Trump will win the nomination, won't he? At the 2016 RNC, he probably will have carnival-style dunk tanks and pie-throwing of prominent political scientists and statisticians who said he couldn't do it. William Bear fucked around with this message at 20:39 on Oct 24, 2015 |
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Oct 24, 2015 20:33
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Mitt Romney posted:There are a billion reasons why Trump is a weak candidate and is not going to win the nomination. Yeah yeah, and Fox News is going to embarrass him out of the first debate, no wait, he'll never actually release his financials, no, actually, there won't be enough people that respond to his blatantly bigoted message, hold on, maybe this insane thing will be the thing that does it If people keep being complacent about Donald Trump and assuming that his support is going to just nebulously vaporize at some unspecified point in the future they're going to be in for a rude awakening. EDIT: Iowa also likes super-religious nut jobs, a wing of the party the Bush's have notoriously hated.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:33
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I would have guessed Carson eats pizza with a fork
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Oct 24, 2015 20:33
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Mitt Romney posted:Saying that Bush or Rubio are the most likely to win the nomination is absolutely a correct statement. There are multiple reasons for this some of which are party support, endorsements and field organization. Polling data on public opinion is the only indicator that is scientific and any real analysis of it says everyone but Trump and Carson are unelectable and honestly, extremely unliked and unwanted. Republicans lost faith in their government led by politicians entirely, I dont blame them. Democrats are slow on the uptake and will probably lose in a landslide to a famous celebrity better on camera then them, which is not exactly unprecedented.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:35
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Jeb Bush is an idiot. He's not winning anything. Rubio still has a shot, but only because he hasn't really been in the spotlight, and I don't think he's going to have the chops to stand up to Trump's hate machine either. Really, the GoP should begin negotiating terms of surrender with Trump
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Oct 24, 2015 20:37
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Joementum posted:Joan was quizzical; studied pataphysical science in the home. Late nights all alone with a test tube. Oh, oh, oh, oh. This did not go unappreciated Joe CLANG CLANG 
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Oct 24, 2015 20:42
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I see the merits of both sides of this argument. I think Jeb/Rubio are still favorites based what I know about massive party machines, and how the nomination process works. With that said you can't count Trump out. Donald Trump is a black swan candidate who has the personal wealth, charisma, and media savvy to go very far. Remember, we're still three months out, so who really knows what is going to happen? Just enjoy the crazy ride before Trump is killed or dumps out, and Carson wakes up from his long strange dream where he ran for President.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:42
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Joementum posted:Primary polls can change very rapidly. Remember when Rick Santorum went from an asterisk to winning Iowa in five days? It's easier to catch fire as an underdog
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Oct 24, 2015 20:49
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hhhat posted:This did not go unappreciated Joe Carson's Silver Hammer. fake edit: if he had a hammer, he'd hammer in the morning, he'd hammer in the evening, he'd hammer his mother's head...
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Oct 24, 2015 20:50
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“Blah, blah, blah, That’s my answer: Blah, blah, blah.” http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/bush-campaign-death-spiral-blah-blah-blah
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Oct 24, 2015 20:53
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I completely agree, by the way, that it's a big problem for Jeb!'s campaign that he's got State Reps in NH who endorsed him freaking out and flipping to other campaigns. He's going to have to work to tamp that down if he's going to have a chance of winning. Meanwhile, Rubio's performed consistently well in the debates and has been able to stick to his positive campaign themes, so he's doing better, but now that he's eclipsed Jeb! he's going to get more scrutiny. Also, just because Donald Trump is never going to win doesn't mean his campaign isn't worth paying attention to or won't have an impact. Ron Paul, Ross Perot, Jesse Jackson, and many others were never going to be President, but their campaigns changed their parties.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:55
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Who do you think has a better chance if it really does somehow come down to these two, Joementum: Trump or Carson?
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Oct 24, 2015 20:58
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Full Battle Rattle posted:Jeb Bush is an idiot. He's not winning anything. Rubio still has a shot, but only because he hasn't really been in the spotlight, and I don't think he's going to have the chops to stand up to Trump's hate machine either. Jeb seems really smart on policy, which is why he'd be good as SoS, but his campaign team let him down by keeping him begging for money when he already had enough and letting Trump define him as W, instead of defining himself as his father. He had two Bush's to brand himself with, but disgracefully chose Guacamole Jeb instead so Trump picked the lovely Bush brand for him. Politics is all marketing, nothing else, and commercials used to do it, which is what superPACS are for, but nowadays many can't afford cable and troll on Twitter or watch YouTube instead, which is 24/7 Trumpaganda now
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Oct 24, 2015 21:00
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You guys are all ignoring the real danger: Ted Cruz. Dude is going to Richard III this thing.
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Oct 24, 2015 21:00
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Nonsense posted:Is that a breakfast pizza? Probably some of that world famous Casey's breakfast pizza.
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Oct 24, 2015 21:00
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Joementum posted:Also, just because Donald Trump is never going to win doesn't mean his campaign isn't worth paying attention to or won't have an impact. Ron Paul, Ross Perot, Jesse Jackson, and many others were never going to be President, but their campaigns changed their parties. Since you bring him up, what would you think are the chances that Trump's run results in the RNC instituting some equivalent rules change to their 2012 "No Ron Pauls" rule? Personally, I'd think it's pretty unlikely they'd bother, unless Trump actually does do what I secret hope he will, and drop out triumphantly a day or two after Jeb! ends his campaign, or if he reneges on his promise not to run 3rd party, which I'd rate even less likely to happen.
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Oct 24, 2015 21:02
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OctoberBlues posted:Probably some of that world famous Casey's breakfast pizza. Funny enough, I actually miss Casey's breakfast pizza. I don't remember it even being that great as a kid, but I had it a lot before classes in high school and it grew on me.
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Oct 24, 2015 21:04
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Montasque posted:You guys are all ignoring the real danger: Ted Cruz. He wants to come in second in the South primaries enough to be taken serious as VP, so he can kill the President like Lyndon B Johnson probably did to JFK, then immediately invade Iran.
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Oct 24, 2015 21:06
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Captain_Maclaine posted:Since you bring him up, what would you think are the chances that Trump's run results in the RNC instituting some equivalent rules change to their 2012 "No Ron Pauls" rule? Personally, I'd think it's pretty unlikely they'd bother, unless Trump actually does do what I secret hope he will, and drop out triumphantly a day or two after Jeb! ends his campaign, or if he reneges on his promise not to run 3rd party, which I'd rate even less likely to happen. I suspect the loyalty oath will be deployed again and I wouldn't be surprised if the RNC decides to take back control of the debates.
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Oct 24, 2015 21:06
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