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Aliquid posted:There are furrners here, so it's possible. Try using a BSUS address if asked. I'm not sure what you mean by BSUS address.
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Oct 23, 2015 21:29
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snakeandbake posted:I'm not sure what you mean by BSUS address. Bullshit United States, sorry 
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Oct 23, 2015 21:30
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Yoshifan823 posted:I just put in a couple of buy orders for cheap "Wins the CNBC Debate" shares for Christie and Cruz. At 10 cents per, I can put $10 on both of them and not feel bad if they don't pull through, but I have a feeling that one of those two will have a good night. Christie's been gaining a bit of momentum here and there over the last few months, and Ted Cruz is about due for a big win. And if Rubio wins? Whatever, I'm out $20. I still won a good bit from the Biden bet to play with. Cruz and Rubio seem like the best yes bets, Christie isn't going anywhere and hopefully will be out next debate. Christie is just bumping around within a point or so. And with the way the rules work, Rubio has a better chance than Cruz since Cruz's got the lower trend line and bumping off polls is probably going to be better for Rubio's numbers than Cruz's. Rubio is also the favorite for winner so the price is more likely to go up. Of course being a poll question, make sure you're free and clear of the market before the polls can gently caress you with their fickleness. Remember that last time Chafee managed to win the Democratic loser somehow while the market was all set for a Bernie yes resolution.
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Oct 23, 2015 21:40
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Did Cruz poll well after the last debate? He is so contrived in everything he does, it's painful to watch. Also this is a debate on the economy and I'm not sure how repeating abolish the IRS over and over is enough to get a big polling bump. I can't see the media buying into any of his poo poo and giving him a positive narrative.
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Oct 23, 2015 22:19
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Given how the polling has been working, there won't be much of a bump for anyone. It'll just be a matter of which polls drop out of the average and which ones stay. Don't be too surprised if the person advocating for the most idiotic and damaging economics wins the debate though. It is a Republican economic debate after all. Gotta come ups with something to surpass the greatness of Reaganomics. Gonna cut taxes on the rich down to zero.
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Oct 23, 2015 22:36
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Remember that the "winner" has nothing to do with the debate.
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Oct 23, 2015 22:58
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There is a new Obama approval market out after a short absence. They are pure gambling, but I'm going to do an experiment to see if I can outsmart it. I'm going to buy 3 dollars worth of NO in each tranche (or as close to $3 as I can) each day. That is $15 per day. After 7 days I will have invested $105, which is more than I like to have invested in something, but seeing how I would be winning 4 out of 5, there is no circumstance where I would be losing most of it. But I will see if systematic dollar cost averaging will yield benefits, where I would be buying more on temporary dips and less on temporary spikes. It won't work if the polls are remarkably stable and I am dumping 20% of my money into a hole and the other 80% marginally pay out, but normally there are wild swings every day back and forth, so I should be picking up some very cheap shares that eventually pay out I will report back how I did.
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Oct 23, 2015 23:00
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District Selectman posted:Remember that the "winner" has nothing to do with the debate. Yep, those markets are like playing roulette. Except in roulette at least you know the odds and the rules. So it's worse, really.
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Oct 23, 2015 23:00
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I was in on BUSH.RNOM no at 61 cents. Then I sold 
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Oct 23, 2015 23:16
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 I was able to sell some Bush NOs for .77he's at an appropriate equilibrium imo, i wouldn't touch the market on either side right now. joementum said in the primary thread now is a good time to buy Bush YES but I'm very doubtful; this specific market is very stable and has been on a long, slow decline.
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Oct 23, 2015 23:33
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I bought some Bush next to drop out on the chance that his dad is about to die and so he's going to bow out then. I think that officially makes me a ghoul.
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Oct 23, 2015 23:36
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Zeta Taskforce posted:There is a new Obama approval market out after a short absence. They are pure gambling, but I'm going to do an experiment to see if I can outsmart it. For what it's worth the math to figure out when your purchases are guaranteed money is pretty easy. I should share my arbitrage spreadsheet with you guys
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Oct 24, 2015 00:10
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Aliquid posted:
If you're willing to play a long game it's a good time to buy in. While Jeb!'s campaign has been an unbelievable disaster, he's still almost certainly going to be one of the last ones standing from the field. No way he drops out until at least post New Hampshire and there's going to be a huge whittling of the field come Iowa. So Jeb! in the 20s if you can hold it for like 4 months is probably a good deal. pathetic little tramp posted:I bought some Bush next to drop out on the chance that his dad is about to die and so he's going to bow out then. I think that officially makes me a ghoul. Dark as it is, it'd probably be a good thing for him to suspend his campaign for a couple weeks or so while dealing with the passing of his dad. The news will be talking up the good things about Bush the Elder and people will be associating Jeb! with that. Plus I don't think even Trump would destroy a man at his father's funeral. Trump laying off for a while while the media talk good things about a Bush would probably do wonders for his numbers.
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Oct 24, 2015 00:23
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Wait, is Bush Sr. really on the way out?
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Oct 24, 2015 00:28
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Necc0 posted:Wait, is Bush Sr. really on the way out? He's 91
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Oct 24, 2015 00:37
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Right but you guys were making it sound like he was on his deathbed.
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Oct 24, 2015 00:43
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Well, I did not want to put this out there until I gobbled up all the RP shares but ya'll need to use some common sense here. Rand Paul may or may not win this thing (and I believe that he has a great chance) but for his shares to be down this low is idiotic at best. His dad came in third and second in both of the last two elections and actually won four or five states last go round! Rand has much greater appeal than his dad and is much more well spoken. Do you really think that in the end he will not get his fathers support as well as support garnered by his own efforts and uniqueness? Mark these words "if Rand does not win the nomination, he will be second place. Will his shares not have to reflect that at one point or another? This is your last chance to buy them at so cheap because starting next week if they are still this low, I will do my very best to buy all of them and let it ride. Can't say I did not give you a chance to make some money here... You're welcome. edit what bothers me most about this is the misplaced apostrophe in "y'all"
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Oct 24, 2015 01:53
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Aliquid posted:Well, I did not want to put this out there until I gobbled up all the RP He gobbled up ALL the shares? Today's volume was 894. And there are 33,352 outstanding. Me thinks someone can't do math.
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Oct 24, 2015 02:31
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Zeta Taskforce posted:He gobbled up ALL the shares? Today's volume was 894. And there are 33,352 outstanding. Me thinks someone can't do math. I'd say 894 could max him out, but he's complaining about Rand's numbers being low so who knows.
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Oct 24, 2015 02:35
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The comments are the second best thing about PredictIt. The first being life proving those comments wrong to one's financial benefit, naturally.
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Oct 24, 2015 02:56
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Aliquid posted:Well, I did not want to put this out there until I gobbled up all the RP You had me worried, there.
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Oct 24, 2015 05:19
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Vox Nihili posted:You had me worried, there. Me too! The thing that bothered me the most was that the commentor's "mark my words" quote had no ending quotation mark, so I initially thought the whole rest of the paragraph was supposed to be a prophetic statement.
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Oct 24, 2015 11:49
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So I've got 97 Yes on Jeb! dropping out next at 6. Should I sell now at 20 or drink the crazy juice and trust the upcoming pow wow with the donors and family drops his energy all the way down?
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Oct 24, 2015 19:24
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Gyges posted:So I've got 97 Yes on Jeb! dropping out next at 6. Should I sell now at 20 or drink the crazy juice and trust the upcoming pow wow with the donors and family drops his energy all the way down? Sell enough to break even then ride that crazy train 
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Oct 24, 2015 19:27
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jeb will drop out next? no loving way. dude still has multiple millions left to spend. he's not going anywhere until at least super tuesday, i don't care how bad he looks right now. and his dad dying will only boost his numbers. i agree he won't be the candidate, but saying he'll drop out next is crazy.
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Oct 24, 2015 19:35
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Abel Wingnut posted:jeb will drop out next? no loving way. dude still has multiple millions left to spend. he's not going anywhere until at least super tuesday, i don't care how bad he looks right now. and his dad dying will only boost his numbers. i agree he won't be the candidate, but saying he'll drop out next is crazy. The Party can pressure him to drop out in a last ditch attempt to boost Rubio and Bush will absolutely obey orders. Especially considering that it doesn't even seem like he wants to be prez anyways
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Oct 24, 2015 19:54
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Abel Wingnut posted:jeb will drop out next? no loving way. dude still has multiple millions left to spend. he's not going anywhere until at least super tuesday, i don't care how bad he looks right now. and his dad dying will only boost his numbers. i agree he won't be the candidate, but saying he'll drop out next is crazy. I agree, but on the other hand I thought the same thing about Walker and that cost me about $100 at the time.
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Oct 24, 2015 20:36
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I should probably grab some yes shares on Jeb! dropping out because if Donald Trump clowns him out of the race before 2016 even starts I'm gonna need to buy some new pants
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Oct 24, 2015 21:51
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Paul Ryan already selecting his staff. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/10/25/paul-ryan-taps-lobbyist-david-hoppe-for-top-job/
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Oct 25, 2015 16:18
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Rumors are starting to float that Jeb intends on bowing out on Monday. I don't exactly buy it but that campaign is definitely in death throes.
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Oct 25, 2015 16:38
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Necc0 posted:Rumors are starting to float that Jeb intends on bowing out on Monday. I don't exactly buy it but that campaign is definitely in death throes. I hope that causes other establishment candidates to gain on Trump, because I'm almost maxed on Trump NO for the nomination.
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Oct 25, 2015 17:09
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I think it'll do the opposite, people will see trump as having beat out the golden boy and it really pumps up his outsider cred. I also don't think jeb is dropping out, but I certainly wouldn't mind making bank on it.
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Oct 25, 2015 17:13
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pathetic little tramp posted:I think it'll do the opposite, people will see trump as having beat out the golden boy and it really pumps up his outsider cred. I also don't think jeb is dropping out, but I certainly wouldn't mind making bank on it. Trump will get a bump as the heroic RINO killer. Rubio and, to a lesser extent, Kaisich will get Jeb!'s numbers.
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Oct 25, 2015 18:09
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pathetic little tramp posted:I think it'll do the opposite, people will see trump as having beat out the golden boy and it really pumps up his outsider cred. I also don't think jeb is dropping out, but I certainly wouldn't mind making bank on it. Yeah, I bought up just a couple very cheap Bush Drop Out shares to hopefully sell higher tomorrow (and ideally cash out on but that rumor sounds a lot like political tabloid extrapolation). Not much to lose, plenty to gain.
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Oct 25, 2015 18:31
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JohnnyPalace posted:I hope that causes other establishment candidates to gain on Trump, because I'm almost maxed on Trump NO for the nomination. This could be a dangerous position to be maxed out on. He is proving that he is not a Herman Cain or Michelle Bachman. He has been leading for 3 months now. He is not going to blow up. He survived the debates, he had right wing talk radio behind him. Giuliani led for a long time in 2007 but they could not be different candidates. Giuliani put all his eggs in Florida for some reason. Trump is building up a substantial ground game everywhere and he is not forgetting the early states. But the Giuliani's biggest problem seemed to be that the more people were exposed to him, the less they liked him. Trump is the opposite. His negatives are way down. When you watch him talk he's funny, he's off the cuff and he's having a good time. Never overestimate the intelligence of the average Republican voter If I were in your place I would be selling. Not dumping, but always have an offer out there hanging out between the bid and ask price. You don't need to sell all, but a good chunk anyway. You can't have lost a lot of money yet, but this could be a long slow bleed for you.
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Oct 25, 2015 18:46
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Yeah, I just can't foresee an event that's going to push Trump out of the race in the short term. Deleveraging when you can could be a good idea. In the longer term, and if you insist on holding out: Iowa's going nuts for Carson, immediately after that primary might offer a chance for TrumpNo shares to peak?  (A lot can still happen in the next 100 days that could change Carson's lead, of course.)
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Oct 25, 2015 19:08
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Also keep in mind that as of this weekend Trump has begun his assault on Carson's numbers. If he pulls this off he'll be all set to be the nominee as sapping Carson's numbers will but him over 50% if not within reach of it. However this is may finally be the move that backfires on him but I've been saying that ever since he announced.
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Oct 25, 2015 19:30
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I think, looking at Jeb YES and Rubio YES share prices, Trump YES is at least undervalued (and therefore Trump NO is overvalued). There's no way I'd be maxed out on a Trump NO position, the media has been saying he'd fall apart for weeks and it just hasn't happened. edit: Cruz YES seems vastly overpriced though, I'm going to buy some Cruz NO right now. EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 20:00 on Oct 25, 2015 |
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Oct 25, 2015 19:53
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Bush not hitting 10% has to be the safest bet on there right now that is going to yield more than 1 or 2% that has a short end date. RCP is using 3 8's, a 7 and a 5. In the past month, there have been zero polls above 10%, exactly 1 at 10% and everything else below. Yet the comments are peppered with people thinking that a massive ad buy is going to save him or he will get some bump from the debate, which he won't but even if he did, it's not until the 28th.
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Oct 25, 2015 20:10
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EngineerSean posted:I think, looking at Jeb YES and Rubio YES share prices, Trump YES is at least undervalued (and therefore Trump NO is overvalued). There's no way I'd be maxed out on a Trump NO position, the media has been saying he'd fall apart for weeks* and it just hasn't happened. *months
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Oct 25, 2015 20:29
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