Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

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namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://imgur.com/znbUq3I.PNG

http://imgur.com/jh2K8DX.PNG

http://imgur.com/BOtgWJe.PNG

loving lol

# ? Oct 25, 2015 20:28

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# ? May 10, 2024 04:05

Brannock: Feb 9, 2006; by exmarx; Fallen Rib

Cultural Imperial posted:

http://imgur.com/znbUq3I.PNG

http://imgur.com/jh2K8DX.PNG

http://imgur.com/BOtgWJe.PNG

loving lol

http://imgur.com/znbUq3I
http://imgur.com/jh2K8DX
http://imgur.com/BOtgWJe

Here I fixed your links

# ? Oct 25, 2015 20:37

less than three: Aug 9, 2007; Fallen Rib

Brannock posted:

http://imgur.com/znbUq3I
http://imgur.com/jh2K8DX
http://imgur.com/BOtgWJe

Here I fixed your links

What am I looking at, other than it's Onni so it's probably going to be falling apart before it's even completed.

# ? Oct 25, 2015 20:41

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Brannock posted:

http://imgur.com/znbUq3I
http://imgur.com/jh2K8DX
http://imgur.com/BOtgWJe

Here I fixed your links

Thx

# ? Oct 25, 2015 20:49

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

less than three posted:

What am I looking at, other than it's Onni so it's probably going to be falling apart before it's even completed.

The majestic Vancouver wood condo

# ? Oct 25, 2015 20:49

ductonius: Apr 9, 2007; I heard there's a cream for that...

Sandwiched between a rail yard, a detox center and a brewery.

edit:

Condo owners: The trains are making too much noise!
CN: Get hosed.
Condo owners: You can't just dismiss us!
Federal Government: Yes they can.
Condo owners: City! Do something!
Vancouver city: Could you please make less noise?
CN: Get hosed.

ductonius fucked around with this message at 21:04 on Oct 25, 2015

# ? Oct 25, 2015 20:58

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

In flood plain lol

# ? Oct 25, 2015 20:59

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

Flood Plain? Not even, it's sitting on backfilled ocean. Main St. used to be a boardwalk FFS.

# ? Oct 25, 2015 21:15

Deep Dish Fuckfest: Sep 6, 2006; Advanced
Computer Touching; Toilet Rascal

Rime posted:

Flood Plain? Not even, it's sitting on backfilled ocean. Main St. used to be a boardwalk FFS.

Well, on the bright side for those owners, that means it's probably not built on an indian burial ground, so there's that going for them.

# ? Oct 25, 2015 22:22

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Rime posted:

Flood Plain? Not even, it's sitting on backfilled ocean. Main St. used to be a boardwalk FFS.

To be fair, the event that causes that area to flood has probably destroyed half of the rest of the city.

Wooden condo though.

# ? Oct 25, 2015 22:24

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Wooden heart
Wooden condo
Wouldn't listen

# ? Oct 25, 2015 23:23

Precambrian Video Games: Aug 19, 2002

HookShot posted:

I hate the attitude towards real estate here as much as anyone else but I think there's a minor difference between "I want to tear this down because it doesn't have an ensuite or granite counters" and "I want to tear this down because it's filled with asbestos"

I'm not an expert but I'm going to guess that renovating and removing old asbestos/insulation/wiring from a postwar bungalow is going to cost a lot less than tearing it down and building a 2-story, 3-car garage monster with 2-3x the living area. Some random searching suggests it's around $10k to fix any one of those issues, and the insulation is (like properly installed asbestos) supposedly best left undisturbed.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 01:37

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/10/23/2142800/how-is-canada-doing-these-days/#respond

quote:

How is Canada doing these days?

Canada�s Liberal Party dominated the election earlier this week � and it wasn�t just because Justin Trudeau, the new Prime Minister, is �dreamy�, as one of our colleagues put it, or because the Liberals pledged to legalise the consumption and possession of marijuana, although both surely helped.

Most important, according to analysts with a finer grasp of Canadian politics than us, was the third-place party�s challenge to the economic philosophy of the ruling Conservative Party. Specifically, the Liberals argued the government should borrow more to cut taxes on regular Canadians and boost investment spending as a way to offset the weakening macro outlook and exploit the low level of real interest rates. Apparently wise policy can win elections.

At first glance this may seem a bit of an overreaction: consumer spending is relatively robust, the trade account hasn�t been getting any worse, residential construction is still strong (perhaps too strong) and government spending, after years of restraint, has been starting to grow.

Despite all this, Canada�s economy shrank by about 0.4 per cent in the first six months of the year. By some definitions this means Canada is already in recession.

The culprit is oil. Canada is a big producer and net exporter, so the plunge in prices has hurt the incomes of workers and owners of oil firms. More significantly, low prices also make investment in additional capacity far less attractive, which is bad news in a country where a little more than a third of business investment went towards oil and gas extraction as recently as 2014. (We wrote more about this back in January before the price crash had a chance to show up in the macro data.)

Despite the sizable depreciation of the Canadian dollar, which we�ll get to in more detail later, the price received by producers in the oil patch is still less than half what it was last summer:

The latest estimates show a cut in oil and gas investment of about 21 per cent over the past year:

During the crisis, capex spending from Canada�s energy sector dropped by about 39 per cent � comparable to what�s already happened in the US over the past year � which suggests the potential for more pain ahead. Overall business investment spending (excluding homebuilding) has dropped by about 7.5 per cent in real terms since the peak in the middle of last year, after years of stagnation:

Resource extraction only employs about 2 per cent of Canadians, so it�s plausible to argue none of this will hurt that much. However, the oil boom has had a big impact on jobs, and the bust is already starting to show in the numbers if you know where to look.

Most of Canada�s oil production occurs in Alberta, which was home to just 10 per cent of Canada�s population at the start of 2005. Even if we naively assume every Canadian with a job in resource extraction works in Alberta, more than 80 per cent of Albertan workers aren�t in the oil and mining business. Yet from the start of 2005 through the end of 2014, one third of all the full-time jobs added in Canada were in Alberta. Those jobs generally weren�t in resource extraction but in construction, restaurants, healthcare, and other sectors catering to domestic demand.

Had Alberta added jobs at the rate of the rest of the country over this period, the country�s total number of full-time jobs would be about 2 per cent lower today. For perspective, full-time employment across Canada dropped about 3.6 per cent from peak to trough during the crisis.

Tellingly, changes in the number of full-time jobs in Alberta across all sectors closely tracks changes in Canada-wide resource employment:

This is not a pattern you see in the rest of Canada, where job growth has been slower and less volatile:

(If you look closely at the chart above, you can see a significant acceleration in job growth outside Alberta that�s helped offset the slowdown in the oil patch.)

Meanwhile, the decline in oil investment lines up with the recent spike in Alberta�s unemployment rate, which is rapidly approaching levels not seen since the worst of the crisis. The rest of Canada has been unaffected so far:

The pain in Alberta hasn�t yet been sufficient to affect the aggregate jobs numbers even if it�s already showing up in the GDP figures. The share of Canadians aged 25-54 with a full-time job hasn�t yet turned down:

(Also note the striking contrast of Canada�s basically complete recovery several years ago against America�s continuing overhang of underemployment.)

One possibility is that Canadians who are net consumers of oil are exploiting the decline in prices to boost spending elsewhere, although real household consumption and non-oil non-housing capex have both slowed down recently. The darker explanation is that employment tends to be a lagging indicator, in which case it could be prudent for the authorities to prepare a response.

Even if you have a bearish outlook on the Canadian economy, that may not be sufficient justification for fiscal stimulus. Perhaps monetary policy could play a role? Let�s check net lending and borrowing across the economy to see whether that�s reasonable:

The corporate sector could conceivably shift to a net borrower, although it�s not obvious why businesses would choose to do so when the outlook for profits is getting bleaker. What could induce them to take that kind of risk?

Even if interest rates had an impact on capex, Canadian borrowing costs can�t go much lower. Consider the incredible collapsing Canadian sovereign yield curve:

Rates in the belly have plunged by half a percentage point over the past year and by a full percentage point compared to two years ago. The interest rates most important to businesses are already far lower than north of the border.

(One plausible counterargument: these changes need time to filter through to business decisions. Even so, it still isn�t obvious why a relatively small shift in borrowing costs would offset a massive change in the outlook for profits.)

Canadian households, meanwhile, have been living beyond their means for years and are currently borrowing more than 3 per cent per year of GDP to satisfy their voracious appetite for goods, services, and, of course, housing.

Years of profligacy mean that household debt is worth nearly 170 per cent of disposable household income. For perspective, US household debt peaked at just above 130 per cent of disposable personal income in 2007. True, Canadian interest rates, and therefore debt service burdens, are a lot lower now than in the US then, but these stories tend to end badly. (See also this important paper by Mian, Sufi, and Werner on the interplay between household debt and growth across countries.)

[Update: Luke Kawa points us to this important paper by Statistics Canada on the differences between US and Canadian measures of disposable income and household debt and how to adjust for them. Canadian households are still more indebted than their southern neighbors, but not by as much as is implied by a simple comparison.]

That leaves the foreign sector and the government.

Focus first on the foreign sector. There�s certainly a lot of room to improve:

The persistence of the imbalance may seem somewhat surprising given the 25 per cent depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar over the past few years:

The problem for Canada is that most every other currency has depreciated by comparable amounts against the US dollar, if not more.

Consider the trade balance in motor vehicles and parts. As recently as 2006, Canada exported more of this high-value product than in imported. Since then, an overvalued currency and improved competitiveness among producers in the US and, even more importantly, Mexico, have turned the balance into a sizable deficit:

Canada�s trade account used to be in balance before counting energy. Since then the non-energy sector has become increasingly uncompetitive and oil exports have been insufficient to make up the difference:

Unsurprisingly, Canadian manufacturing employment got hammered in the years before the crisis and has yet to recover. Many, but not all, of the jobs lost were replaced by new ones in construction, which may sound disturbingly familiar to US readers:

In fact, the construction sector has accounted for a fifth of all the jobs added in Canada since 2005, despite employing only 6 per cent of the workforce at the start of that period. If that sounds familiar (and worrying), but you�re not sure why, re-read the bits of this post about Spain, then re-read this one. Another 28 per cent of the jobs added since 2005 have been in healthcare � far more than the sector�s 10 per cent employment share a decade ago.

No wonder Canada�s productivity growth has been so meagre, worse even than Portugal and Spain since 2001 and tied with the notoriously stagnant UK:

It�s possible more time is needed for the depreciation of the past few years to have an impact on trade and reverse the Dutch disease afflicting the Canadian economy. The impact on net payments to foreign holders of Canadian assets should have been instantaneous, however, yet the investment income deficit has been remarkably stable for years despite big moves up and down in the loonie:

Additional depreciation would probably be helpful, especially if the loonie also cheapened significantly against the Mexican peso. But it�s not clear how much more would be necessary, or how it could be achieved.

So that leaves us with fiscal policy. The consolidated Canadian government has been running a relatively tight fiscal policy for years and the budget deficit is now quite narrow:

Meanwhile, government spending has been flat for years despite a growing population:

The main danger with the Liberal Party�s plan to boost spending and fund it by borrowing more is that it may not be enough to offset what�s already happened (and what could happen) in the oil patch. But at least it�s conceptually correct.

So SJWs, congratulations on electing the intellectual equivalent of a loaf of wonder bread. You'll have your legal weed and deficit spending and maybe a oval office face like scott brison as finance minister. On one hand, there's probably nothing this band of idiots can do to steer Canada's economic fortune in the right direction. On the the other hand, there's nothing they can do to steer Canada's economic fortune in the right direction

But at least you got :2bong:

right

# ? Oct 26, 2015 03:20

Rime: Nov 2, 2011; by Games Forum

There are those of us who want the crash and burn, CI. :kheldragar:

The only way to get ahead is to step over the corpses of the genpop, at this point.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 05:23

ductonius: Apr 9, 2007; I heard there's a cream for that...

Cultural Imperial posted:

But at least you got right

If it ends the war on drugs, it was worth it. /seriouspost

# ? Oct 26, 2015 05:38

Precambrian Video Games: Aug 19, 2002

I'm really dying to hear who CI thinks Canadians should have voted for to cure Canada's economic malaise, I truly am.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 05:43

Tighclops: Jan 23, 2008; Unable to deal with it; Grimey Drawer

Rime posted:

There are those of us who want the crash and burn, CI.

The only way to get ahead is to step over the corpses of the genpop, at this point.

I can't wait to dramatically step out of the ruins of the condo wars like the dudes from the captain power intro

# ? Oct 26, 2015 05:46

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

I just said there's nothing Wonderbread can do dumb rear end. That goes for all parties

It seems profligate spending is a pretty elastic response to low interest rates because Canadians are loving dumb rear end hell. So maybe the solution is to kill off all the dumb Canadians

namaste friends fucked around with this message at 06:02 on Oct 26, 2015

# ? Oct 26, 2015 05:59

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008; Can't post for 13 hours!

http://www.idiottax.net/2015/10/mortgage-regulation-australian-style.html

More on that Yellow Crack shack I posted earlier.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 06:05

Precambrian Video Games: Aug 19, 2002

Cultural Imperial posted:

I just said there's nothing Wonderbread can do dumb rear end. That goes for all parties

The article you quoted did more or less say that deficit spending would help, but that what the Liberals aren't promising wouldn't be enough to offset declines in (absolute or the growth of?) consumer spending. Seeing as how none of the parties promised greater deficit spending, I'm not clear how this failure is due to the SJW vapidity of the Canadian electorate.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 06:28

Coolwhoami: Sep 13, 2007

Cultural Imperial posted:

So maybe the solution is to kill off all the dumb Canadians

So, everybody?

# ? Oct 26, 2015 06:40

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008; Can't post for 13 hours!

quote:

Four dead as whale watching boat with 27 on board sinks off Vancouver Island

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/26/multiple-deaths-as-whale-boat-carrying-27-sinks-off-vancouver-in-canada

At least C.I is making a start on killing all Canadians.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 07:20

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

Watch C.I become the next Brejvik.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 07:39

upgunned shitpost: Jan 21, 2015

Jumpingmanjim posted:

http://www.idiottax.net/2015/10/mortgage-regulation-australian-style.html

More on that Yellow Crack shack I posted earlier.

I am unreasonably angry at the way they spell Surrey. 'Surry'... terrible.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 11:49

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008; Can't post for 13 hours!

jfood posted:

I am unreasonably angry at the way they spell Surrey. 'Surry'... terrible.

The one in Melbourne is called Surrey Hills lol.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 12:31

BCR: Jan 23, 2011

# ? Oct 26, 2015 13:05

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

eXXon posted:

The article you quoted did more or less say that deficit spending would help, but that what the Liberals aren't promising wouldn't be enough to offset declines in (absolute or the growth of?) consumer spending. Seeing as how none of the parties promised greater deficit spending, I'm not clear how this failure is due to the SJW vapidity of the Canadian electorate.

Your precious. Still holding out on the hope that done Christ figure Pierre Trudeau will one day be elected to restore Canada to her rightful place in the world aren't you

Being a loving 'scientist', your a) reading comprehension is appalling b) somehow incapable of processing problems with more than one unknown.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 14:39

cowofwar: Jul 30, 2002; by Athanatos

Cultural Imperial posted:

Your precious. Still holding out on the hope that done Christ figure Pierre Trudeau will one day be elected to restore Canada to her rightful place in the world aren't you

Being a loving 'scientist', your a) reading comprehension is appalling b) somehow incapable of processing problems with more than one unknown.

I also read the article and didn't grasp how it relates to your hysteria so I guess I am also retarded.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 14:45

Risky Bisquick: Jan 18, 2008; PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.; Buglord

cowofwar posted:

I also read the article and didn't grasp how it relates to your hysteria so I guess I am also retarded.

It's more of a confirmation bias that only exists in CI's head :ssh:

# ? Oct 26, 2015 14:48

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

"Additional depreciation would probably be helpful, especially if the loonie also cheapened significantly against the Mexican peso. "

Haha, good luck with that. On soccer and races to the bottom, Mexico will always be a clear favourite over Canada.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 16:12

Femtosecond: Aug 2, 2003

Cultural Imperial posted:

In flood plain lol

The lot directly north is I think the last residential zoned property in the entire flats, so they're guaranteed to lose their mountain view as well.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 16:35

B33rChiller: Aug 18, 2011

Jumpingmanjim posted:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/26/multiple-deaths-as-whale-boat-carrying-27-sinks-off-vancouver-in-canada

At least C.I is making a start on killing all Canadians.

If the target was Canadians, he missed:

the linked guardian article posted:

On Monday the British foreign secretary Philip Hammond said the five dead were British nationals.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 17:31

sbaldrick: Jul 19, 2006; Driven by Hate

Cultural Imperial posted:

The majestic Vancouver wood condo

Which are completely legal because the wood industry bribed the Construction Codes for Canada group (bribed/paid for study same thing). No one who works in the group would live in one of those death traps.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 19:42

McGavin: Sep 18, 2012

sbaldrick posted:

Which are completely legal because the wood industry bribed the Construction Codes for Canada group (bribed/paid for study same thing). No one who works in the group would live in one of those death traps.

The majestic Vancouver wood condo in its natural state.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 19:51

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Cultural Imperial posted:

In flood plain lol

well maybe a flood will occur at the exact moment the shoddy condo gets set on fire?

# ? Oct 26, 2015 20:20

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

This just in, the cmhc is forecasting the bubble pop in 2016.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/canadas-real-estate-boom-will-come-to-an-end-in-2016-cmhc-says

# ? Oct 26, 2015 21:43

Risky Bisquick: Jan 18, 2008; PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.; Buglord

Cultural Imperial posted:

This just in, the cmhc is forecasting the bubble pop in 2016.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/canadas-real-estate-boom-will-come-to-an-end-in-2016-cmhc-says

This is garbage, Trudeau is implementing more policies to stoke the fire. Short of enacting citizenship requirements for real estate transactions (lol), limiting immigration(lolol), or pushing through reforms in CMHC (lololol) we are going full speed ahead.

# ? Oct 26, 2015 21:52

Professor Shark: May 22, 2012

# ? Oct 26, 2015 21:53

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008; Can't post for 13 hours!

quote:

Chinese property investors turn sub-prime?

The AFR has reported that one of China�s biggest financial institutions, the banking division of PingAn Insurance, has been offering Chinese investors zero deposit home loans for off-the-plan apartments in Melbourne and the Gold Coast in a move that could stoke further demand from offshore buyers and potentially extend the apartment glut that is developing across Australia�s cities:

�Become an Australian property owner with zero down payment,� said one slide displayed at the [Shanghai] conference. �Join hands with PingAn and realise your overseas property dream,� said another�

�It will open up the Australian property market to a whole new class of investors,� said Eddie Yuen, the Shanghai-based manager of Austpac. �Investors may not have the cash now, but they can still buy a property in Australia��

PingAn would typically lend Chinese investors the 30 per cent required for the down payment and the remainder would be financed by an Australian bank.

�there was also a risk for developers selling off-the-plan apartments, as some buyers would be tempted to walk away from their initial down payment if prices had not risen at the time of settlement.

A separate article at The AFR notes that the interest rate on the loans offered by PingAn Insurance is 14% for two years, and covers only the initial 10% deposit amount. At the time of settlement, Ping An would then extend 30% of the property�s value to the borrower, who would then seek the remaining 70% financing from an Australian bank.

As noted above, the development greatly heightens risk in the apartment sector. No deposit loans are more likely to attract speculators punting on capital growth, rather than for personal reasons (e.g. future retirement, residency or a child�s education). And without any �skin-in-the-game�, these buyers would be more likely to walk away from settlement if prices and the currency do not move their way, which seems likely given the apartment gluts developing in Melbourne and Queensland along with the headwinds for the Aussie dollar.

On the other hand, the move could also significantly increase demand from Chinese buyers, thereby extending the apartment construction boom a little longer, exacerbating the apartment oversupply, and delaying the shock to jobs as dwelling construction declines, which has been tipped to occur from mid-2016.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/10/chinese-property-investors-turn-sub-prime/

# ? Oct 27, 2015 02:59

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# ? May 10, 2024 04:05

Dreylad: Jun 19, 2001

Hamelekim posted:

My Canadian political history class. Granted that was back in 2000 but I remember the map.

I am not saying there is anything to it, just that it is interesting how they match up so well.

The Canadian Historical Atlas is a good resource for stuff like this. Your public library might even have it, if you live in a decent sized city.

# ? Oct 27, 2015 03:09

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

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