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EngineerSean posted:new CNN post-debate Republican poll That link is from an old September poll.
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Oct 30, 2015 15:13
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nachos posted:The Obama 46% market is shooting back up for some reason Learned my lesson/shut up/DONT BET ON POLLS
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Oct 30, 2015 15:16
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Vox Nihili posted:That link is from an old September poll. Good because I was really loving confused
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Oct 30, 2015 15:17
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User Error posted:Learned my lesson/shut up/DONT BET ON POLLS   
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Oct 30, 2015 15:24
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Vox Nihili posted:That link is from an old September poll. lol I'm glad II didn't read it then (sorry guys)
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Oct 30, 2015 15:28
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Rode out the poll market to a small victory at .86. Those market fluctuations are daily and ridiculous. If anyone ever needs something from Gallup Analytics let me know, but enough traders already have it (and occasionally dump screenshots) that it doesn't really offer much help.
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Oct 30, 2015 16:21
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I did go ahead and buy about 100 shares of 46+ yesterday when it was down at 25 and just sold at 76. I'm terrible, but also very happy that the PredictItariat are so ridiculously easily swayed by the minorest poo poo.
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Oct 30, 2015 16:49
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These polls are making me salty!
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Oct 30, 2015 16:52
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bought a shitload of carson nos. there is no way that man will win the nomination
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Oct 30, 2015 17:09
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Gallup has a 47, does that mean the 46%ers win all of the money?
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Oct 30, 2015 19:44
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nachos posted:Gallup has a 47, does that mean the 46%ers win all of the money? Yep. (Barring RCP fuckery/random new poll being added for no particular reason.)
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Oct 30, 2015 19:50
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Does RCP ever drop a poll on a Saturday? If not, the Sanders 25 is cheap for a payout tomorrow.
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Oct 31, 2015 00:10
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Tomato Burger posted:Does RCP ever drop a poll on a Saturday? If not, the Sanders 25 is cheap for a payout tomorrow. Same with Rubio. But don't bet the entire farm on either My money is tied up in the debt ceiling, which I'm not sure should still be open and my Obama polling experiment where I bought NO on every tranche. Which by the way was a moderate but not overwhelming success. I invested $139 and my winnings will be $149, which will be reduced to $144 with fees. I might play with it again, since it is basically no risk, and weekly returns of 3 to 5% would add up after awhile.
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Oct 31, 2015 00:29
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Tomato Burger posted:Does RCP ever drop a poll on a Saturday? If not, the Sanders 25 is cheap for a payout tomorrow. Sometimes. RCP is not a stable and reliable source for those hoping for a strict schedule. Sometimes they'll drop polls, sometimes they won't. Eventually it'll work out ok as a tool of poll aggregation for political purposes. Usually it'll gently caress you dry as a tool of gambling determination.
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Oct 31, 2015 01:08
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Also I'm sure they are getting flooded with weird job applications for the low level temp position that updates their polls.
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Oct 31, 2015 03:56
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How likely is Conway to win Kentucky? Given the prices and the fairly quick turn around that seems like a good market to migrate my money from the Debt Ceiling.
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Oct 31, 2015 16:06
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Gyges posted:How likely is Conway to win Kentucky? Given the prices and the fairly quick turn around that seems like a good market to migrate my money from the Debt Ceiling. I invested in Conway to win months ago at like .80; seems like a done deal but off-year Democrat turnout is weird so iunno
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Oct 31, 2015 16:56
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Stereotype posted:Also I'm sure they are getting flooded with weird job applications for the low level temp position that updates their polls. Sounds like a scandal like Draft Kings, except more nerdy and a lot more boring.
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Oct 31, 2015 17:58
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If I worked at RCP, I'd totally either have a PredictIt account or have somoene do it for me. It'd be too easy not to. Also, man, Webb keeps making more and more and more noise. I have zero money in that market for whether or not he runs now, but all he has to do is file with the FEC.
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Oct 31, 2015 22:12
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Aliquid posted:I invested in Conway to win months ago at like .80; seems like a done deal but off-year Democrat turnout is weird so iunno There's undoubtedly a small risk with Conway. Polls are sometimes wrong (remember when Mongiardo nearly upset Bunning?) and it's KY, and it's off year, but holy crap Bevin is a bad candidate. It'd be VERY surprising if he went from 40-42 in the polls right now, and eked out a win with 46-47% of the vote (assuming the left-leaning independent takes 7-10% away from Conway).
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Oct 31, 2015 22:14
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Left-leaning Independent Drew Curtis of Fark.com lmao
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Nov 1, 2015 01:12
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loving Drew Curtis of Fark is running as the independent? Jesus Christ, Kentucky. And I say that as a Floridian. Where our Libertarian Party candidate, Augustus Sol Invictus, is most famous for sacrificing a goat in a religious ritual.
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Nov 1, 2015 01:38
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I can't believe Jim Webb Indy Run Yes shares are under $0.50. I bought at $0.60 or so and thought it was a steal. Is there really a strong chance he would do something so obviously dumb and quixotic?
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Nov 1, 2015 16:38
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I sure hope he doesn't run because that would clean me out. DON'T RUN YOU STUPID BASTARD!
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Nov 1, 2015 17:22
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Salvor_Hardin posted:I can't believe Jim Webb Indy Run Yes shares are under $0.50. I bought at $0.60 or so and thought it was a steal. Is there really a strong chance he would do something so obviously dumb and quixotic? I'm in heavy on Webb myself. I can't see him pulling a Biden and hes been making a bunch of noise on Twitter and obviously that Washington Post opinion piece. I see very little risk here given that all he has to do is file with the FEC.
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Nov 1, 2015 17:38
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god help me I think Jeb! YES at .17 may be a good buy
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Nov 1, 2015 18:03
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Aliquid posted:god help me I think Jeb! YES at .17 may be a good buy It isn't
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Nov 1, 2015 18:13
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Instead, I went on a spread of CNBC debate losers, saying NO to a lot of people but not Trump or Carson. Huck may be overpriced there.
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Nov 1, 2015 18:16
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Anorexic Sea Turtle posted:I sure hope he doesn't run because that would clean me out. DON'T RUN YOU STUPID BASTARD! watwat posted:I'm in heavy on Webb myself. I can't see him pulling a Biden and hes been making a bunch of noise on Twitter and obviously that Washington Post opinion piece. I see very little risk here given that all he has to do is file with the FEC. He's making noise to secure funding. I don't see how him running as an independent will suddenly grant him the donors that weren't lining up behind him when he had a D on his name. Put differently: if he was running why hasn't he filed the papers yet?
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Nov 1, 2015 18:26
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Necc0 posted:He's making noise to secure funding. I don't see how him running as an independent will suddenly grant him the donors that weren't lining up behind him when he had a D on his name. Pretty much this. Everyone knows and Indy run is doomed so the only reasons I can think to do it are: a) gently caress you wealthy (Perot) b) Campaign cum Book Tour c) Insanely large ego and none of those seem to fit for Webb.
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Nov 1, 2015 19:15
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Aliquid posted:Instead, I went on a spread of CNBC debate losers, saying NO to a lot of people but not Trump or Carson. Huck may be overpriced there. I don't think Trump has had a single poll since the debate that has shown any loss, why would Trump be a no?
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Nov 1, 2015 19:43
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pathetic little tramp posted:I don't think Trump has had a single poll since the debate that has shown any loss, why would Trump be a no? The "worst debate performance" is an absolute value; if Huckabee loses 33% of his support it's only a drop of 1%; if Trump has a relative drop of 6% or so that'll be enough to go lower than Huck.
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Nov 1, 2015 19:45
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Aliquid posted:god help me I think Jeb! YES at .17 may be a good buy It will probably go higher at some point, but it could be months. Rubio No at 50c is probably a better buy, honestly.
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Nov 1, 2015 19:45
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Aliquid posted:The "worst debate performance" is an absolute value; if Huckabee loses 33% of his support it's only a drop of 1%; if Trump has a relative drop of 6% or so that'll be enough to go lower than Huck. So people are banking on Trump dropping in a future poll? Or is there a dip I haven't seen?
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Nov 1, 2015 19:48
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pathetic little tramp posted:So people are banking on Trump dropping in a future poll? Or is there a dip I haven't seen?  They're banking on that 32 dropping.
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Nov 1, 2015 19:51
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Ah I see, so it's basically he was overvalued going into the debate thanks to an outlier poll.
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Nov 1, 2015 19:56
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pathetic little tramp posted:So people are banking on Trump dropping in a future poll? Or is there a dip I haven't seen? Trump has a 32 poll as his oldest, which is also his highest poll. Meanwhile he has a 22 poll as his second newest, which is his lowest. If the rest of his polls are in the 20s then that should be a relatively significant drop. Huckabee, Fiorina, and Jeb! are also decent bets. Jeb! having less to do with past polls than his inescapable air of failure while Rubio is on the rise.
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Nov 1, 2015 19:56
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Necc0 posted:He's making noise to secure funding. I don't see how him running as an independent will suddenly grant him the donors that weren't lining up behind him when he had a D on his name. Well someone posted a comment that he did. http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/994/201510309003259994/201510309003259994.pdf
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Nov 1, 2015 20:00
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watwat posted:Well someone posted a comment that he did. http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/994/201510309003259994/201510309003259994.pdf Uh yep, that looks pretty concrete. Why isn't it in the news yet you may ask. You may also ask who is Jim Webb. These are both good questions. edit: Just checked his twitter. It's happening: 
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Nov 1, 2015 20:08
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Just lost $3, could have been way worse.
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Nov 1, 2015 20:09
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