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CompeAnansi posted:I'll just note that the generally recommended percentages if you want to do this for the long haul are to use 20% of your entry monies MAX on GPPs. My own rule of thumb is that I need to be able to make enough if I win my current average percentage of cash games to cover my GPP entries assuming they all lose. So, for example, $20 of entries gives me $17 for entries that have a 50% chance of payout. Winning 65% of those gives me ~$20 back. That, then, gives me $3 for GPP entries. Now I don't follow this exactly because I also play some double ups and triple ups, but it gives you the general idea: I want my cash entries to be able to fund my spending on GPPs. Yeah you should have some cash flow for these games and a mix of h2h and double and triple ups is good to have. My bank roll started at 25 bucks and I'm at just under 300 now and every week I put just about half of my roll into cash lineups in order to keep my roll going into the next week. I will say though, the guy who said play the smallest entry possible was super correct...I entered something like 20 bucks of quarter entries and made probably 60ish bucks this week. If Charles Clay/Hopkins/Steelers defense would have shown up i'd be in the hundreds over quarter entries. Also join up the Thursday GPPS as the payouts are basically the same but the overall pool of entrants are smaller.
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Oct 27, 2015 19:11
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Degenerate gambler loses assloads of money on DFS, files class action. 
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Oct 27, 2015 19:13
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How many different cash lineups do you guys enter in a given week? Do you try to cover the variance by entering more H2H contests with one lineup, or create a handful of lineups with fewer entries each so that you limit your exposure to any given player?
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Oct 27, 2015 19:17
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Ozu posted:Degenerate gambler loses assloads of money on DFS, files class action.
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Oct 28, 2015 01:28
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Teeter posted:How many different cash lineups do you guys enter in a given week? Do you try to cover the variance by entering more H2H contests with one lineup, or create a handful of lineups with fewer entries each so that you limit your exposure to any given player? I've got 8 Line-ups across 21 Entries. Part of that is to reduce exposure if a player flops, but some of it is due to me playing several different slates based on finding some lower win opponents in H2Hs. How do you guys approach single entry GPPs, since you can't churn out different lineups. Obviously you strive to make the best possible one, but how do you go about it?
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Oct 28, 2015 15:53
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Marshmallow Blue posted:I've got 8 Line-ups across 21 Entries. Part of that is to reduce exposure if a player flops, but some of it is due to me playing several different slates based on finding some lower win opponents in H2Hs. Numberfire or fantasypros has lineup generators that you can use for free and then I think about ownership levels and matchups. GPP's require low ownership to hit it real big so usually it's the combination of sleeper QB and or defense going off that make it big....last week it happened to be the ENTIRE dolphins team but that was unusual and probably not repeatable this season. Houston seems to give up TONS of points to anyone so Mettenberger might be a really sneaky high value play. Or he could suck....it's all a crapshoot!
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Oct 28, 2015 16:06
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Yuzenn posted:Houston seems to give up TONS of points to anyone so Mettenberger might be a really sneaky high value play. Or he could suck....it's all a crapshoot! He sucked last week. He was an amazing value on Yahoo, but he still didn't hit value because he didn't even hit 10 points.
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Oct 28, 2015 16:29
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Marshmallow Blue posted:I've got 8 Line-ups across 21 Entries. Part of that is to reduce exposure if a player flops, but some of it is due to me playing several different slates based on finding some lower win opponents in H2Hs. DraftKings: Look for 4x+ value ceiling risk guys. It's barely worth mincashing GPPs (may as well play double ups), so you have to just go for it and aim for 200+ points or bust with your $50,000. e.g. never take a QB that's over $7000 because its too hard to score 28+ points, and its more likely a $5x00 QB against a mediocre defence will be the one any given week that does it. Same concept for RB/WR. For TE the limit is around $5000. For DST if I'm paying over $3200 they better be the surest pick ever. Choose two, maybe three safe non-QB picks, crapshoot the rest.
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Oct 28, 2015 16:51
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CompeAnansi posted:He sucked last week. He was an amazing value on Yahoo, but he still didn't hit value because he didn't even hit 10 points. That's true but Houston has been REALLY bad this season. All except one game this season they have let up 3 touchdowns to each team (including a team with hasselbeck as their QB) and in two of them games they have had over six touchdowns scored on them in a game. They cannot defend the pass at all and even a schlub like Mettenberger has enough weapons around him to seemingly be able to be a very cheap pickup. ****This is a risky pick, let me be clear******* but! if this pans out and he does what every other QB has done to them this season, he's going to win people a LOT of money because of his ownership levels and price. Yuzenn fucked around with this message at 16:56 on Oct 28, 2015 |
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Oct 28, 2015 16:52
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Yuzenn posted:Numberfire or fantasypros has lineup generators that you can use for free and then I think about ownership levels and matchups. GPP's require low ownership to hit it real big so usually it's the combination of sleeper QB and or defense going off that make it big....last week it happened to be the ENTIRE dolphins team but that was unusual and probably not repeatable this season. By their nature, these optimizers are great for making Cash Game lineups but miserable at GPPs. Here's a website that has actually been putting money down to test the optimizers and reporting the results: http://www.dailyoverlay.com/expert-grading/nfl-optimal-lineup-analysis/ One way to make your GPP lineup is to make the Fantasy Pros optimal lineup, exclude 6-7 players, hit Optimize, exclude 3-4 more players, hit Optimize, repeat until lineup looks sufficiently absurd.
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Oct 28, 2015 17:00
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AnacondaHL posted:By their nature, these optimizers are great for making Cash Game lineups but miserable at GPPs. Here's a website that has actually been putting money down to test the optimizers and reporting the results: This is dope, thank you!
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Oct 28, 2015 17:34
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Yuzenn posted:That's true but Houston has been REALLY bad this season. This is true and as a Texans fan, here's some additional insight: the kind of lovely defense we have doesn't require a good quarterback or deep throws or even deep threats. Nearly all of the yardage we gave up vs the Dolphins last week was YAC. Tannehill completed 18 passes, only half of which were more than 2 yards from the LOS in the air. Our defense takes terrible angles and cannot tackle. I don't know enough about the Titans to know if they have players capable of getting that type of YAC success against the Texans. While the D is bad, the Dolphins have a couple fast, talented, shifty guys who made that day happen. If the Titans have a couple as well, then your theory will probably work out.
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Oct 28, 2015 19:57
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Sub Par posted:This is true and as a Texans fan, here's some additional insight: the kind of lovely defense we have doesn't require a good quarterback or deep throws or even deep threats. Nearly all of the yardage we gave up vs the Dolphins last week was YAC. Tannehill completed 18 passes, only half of which were more than 2 yards from the LOS in the air. Our defense takes terrible angles and cannot tackle. All I know is the Titans run game is almost non existent, so while they might not be YAC monsters that other teams are...other teams have gashed the Texans on the ground to go with the air. Freeman, Miller and Charles all had monster days and Cam (qb) and Gore both gashed them. I'm only going to have 1-2 lineups with Mettenberger but asking him to get 20 points against that defense for value doesn't seem like that big of a longshot.
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Oct 28, 2015 20:52
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Sub Par posted:I don't know enough about the Titans to know if they have players capable of getting that type of YAC success against the Texans. While the D is bad, the Dolphins have a couple fast, talented, shifty guys who made that day happen. If the Titans have a couple as well, then your theory will probably work out. Let me tell you then. The Titans have two hbs (andrews and sankey) that have the ability to shred the texans. They won't get the opportunity to shred the Texans because whiz will give mccluster all the carries and completely forget about sankey while giving andrews some touches here and there. Wright is the fast talented shifty guy on the team.
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Oct 28, 2015 21:09
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I did buy a few shares of wright this week. Hope it pays off.
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Oct 28, 2015 21:16
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Metapod posted:Let me tell you then. The Titans have two hbs (andrews and sankey) that have the ability to shred the texans. They won't get the opportunity to shred the Texans because whiz will give mccluster all the carries and completely forget about sankey while giving andrews some touches here and there. Wright is the fast talented shifty guy on the team.
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Oct 28, 2015 22:18
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Metapod posted:Let me tell you then. The Titans have two hbs (andrews and sankey) that have the ability to shred the texans. They won't get the opportunity to shred the Texans because whiz will give mccluster all the carries and completely forget about sankey while giving andrews some touches here and there. Wright is the fast talented shifty guy on the team. Sweet. I am hoping we get shredded on checkdowns and screens again so RAC gets shown the door. I was heavily into Landry and Miller last week because of how lovely our D is, and it worked out well for me 
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Oct 29, 2015 05:57
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I know this is mostly football chat, but has anyone tried out basketball? I've dabbled the last two days and it's been pretty fun. One of the interesting things about basketball is there is a dearth of information. There are no FootballGuys or 4for4 for basketball, so if you're into doing analysis on your own you can really give yourself a leg up on the general public. The one thing that is a bit more stressful is that basketball is a true daily sport, which requires a lot more time and research if you don't have most of your process automated.
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Oct 29, 2015 14:57
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Marshmallow Blue posted:I've got 8 Line-ups across 21 Entries. Part of that is to reduce exposure if a player flops, but some of it is due to me playing several different slates based on finding some lower win opponents in H2Hs. I generally have 2 cash lineups if there's too many chalky picks I feel good about to fit them all in one. Last week I only had 1 though. For single entry GPPs, I just look at the lineups I have entered in multi-entry GPPs and unscientifically pick the one I feel best about.
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Oct 30, 2015 18:42
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CompeAnansi posted:I know this is mostly football chat, but has anyone tried out basketball? I've dabbled the last two days and it's been pretty fun. One of the interesting things about basketball is there is a dearth of information. There are no FootballGuys or 4for4 for basketball, so if you're into doing analysis on your own you can really give yourself a leg up on the general public. The one thing that is a bit more stressful is that basketball is a true daily sport, which requires a lot more time and research if you don't have most of your process automated. As primarily a cash game player I actually prefer basketball to football. A bad game from a player wont necessarily totally wipe you out since floors tend to be higher. For instance Anthony Davis had a terrible game opening night but still had around 30 points on Draftkings. Granted that's falling way short of the value you would want to be at to cash in cash games (around 5.5x so 275 points, while the magic number for gpps tends to be 300 points.) But its not a total blowout like your super stud wide receiver getting less than 10 points. Also the fact that its a way less popular game means its easy to gave an edge of you do any research at all. Of course i would imagine this falls off when football season ends and most of the "recreational" players dont touch their dfs accounts.
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Oct 31, 2015 00:46
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I've wondered how it translates to NHL as well. I am significantly more knowledgeable about the game itself compared to other sports but I haven't done much research or know anything at all about how to apply that towards fantasy. It's so much more hit/miss compared to some other sports. There have been a bunch of daily free rolls on DK so I'm using that to get my feet wet and learn a bit about the scoring. So far it seems like you can get a high floor by grabbing D-men on bad teams with low possession stats and lots of shot blocking, and plus good goalies are capable of putting up a lot of consistent points so seems worth the salary investment. Aside from that it's hard to get a feel for it without doing much research. Points can be streaky so I'll probably focus a lot on players that get a lot of PP/PK time more than anything.
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Oct 31, 2015 00:55
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Wait NBA GPPs should be around 300 points? I've had two lineups a night every night in 50/50s as I've learned basketball DFS and every one except one has gotten more than 300. Dammit.
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Oct 31, 2015 01:00
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Spoeank posted:Wait NBA GPPs should be around 300 points? I've had two lineups a night every night in 50/50s as I've learned basketball DFS and every one except one has gotten more than 300. First take your #humblebrags elsewhere but yes at least for last year (running a gpp and multiple cash game nightly fron Christmas to the finals) as well as what ive gathered for what passes as trustworthy on reddit dfs and rotogrinders that tends to be accurate.
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Oct 31, 2015 01:06
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The SituAsian posted:First take your #humblebrags elsewhere but yes at least for last year (running a gpp and multiple cash game nightly fron Christmas to the finals) as well as what ive gathered for what passes as trustworthy on reddit dfs and rotogrinders that tends to be accurate. I say dammit because I feel like I left money on the table because there's no way I'm sustaining it 
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Oct 31, 2015 02:03
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Can draftkings put a P or an O next to the NBA players who are not likely to play or something just like they do NFL? Two days in a row there is a pull of a player because of back to backs and I didn't realize it because it didn't say anything right next to their names. Fkn frustrating! I know that there aren't the same designations or even reporting during practices but these guys were coaches decisions before the games started
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Oct 31, 2015 02:09
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In terms of DFS, easiest to hardest of the big 4 is NBA > NFL > MLB > NHL - I've been playing for 3 years and I avoid NHL and sparingly play MLB. Sometimes I take a shot at them but typically always lose. If you know basketball and understand the value of a min-salary player getting starter minutes, you're pretty golden. Generally you should always put your cash lineup in at least the $3 GPP, I've seen quite a few people complain because their cash lineup would have brought in a 5 figure win in a tourny. Edit: Oh PGA is also easy if you know what stats to use to predict safe cash lineups
Sepist fucked around with this message at 14:00 on Oct 31, 2015 |
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Oct 31, 2015 13:53
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Whelp, if you didn't play Brees or Eli or Odell or Watson you basically lost money this week. Forsett, Dalton, Green and Bell all were such disappointing plays. Even the cash games are scoring like 250.....there goes the bankroll
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Nov 1, 2015 22:19
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I played a handful of NBA H2Hs last night and all my opponents had Steph Curry 
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Nov 1, 2015 23:11
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Yuzenn posted:Whelp, if you didn't play Brees or Eli or Odell or Watson you basically lost money this week. AJ Green had a fine game. It was clear Ledarius was a bad play once Gates was active.
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Nov 1, 2015 23:33
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I too got murdered.
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Nov 2, 2015 03:05
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Sock The Great posted:AJ Green had a fine game. It was clear Ledarius was a bad play once Gates was active. I needed him to get like 5 points but he got injured in the first half...Gates was mostly running decoy anyway. Forsett hurt much more because at least Green was 3k but Forsett was 6.1 and Bell was 8.3 If Cam gets me 20 points I will at least win my cash lineups, and I hope so because I am winning 1 out of 73 GPP lineups this week.
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Nov 2, 2015 03:15
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I had my best week ever. The Big win was on a line up of: QB: Carson Palmer RB: Todd Gurley RB: Devonta Freeman WR: DeAndre Hopkins WR: Stefon Diggs WR: Malcolm Floyd TE: Crockett Gilmore. K: Blair Walsh D: Rams Poor choice: basically flipped a coin for a choice between Watson and Gilmore. Missed the First place Prize by 4.22 points. 
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Nov 2, 2015 05:58
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Thought I'd bet on Raiders bipolarity and took Fitzpatrick in an afternoon games only contest.
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Nov 2, 2015 07:31
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Threw a dollar into a NBA 50/50. I know nothing about basketball (except I hate Lebron because I am a playoffs only fair-weather Celtics fan)... How good or bad is this line-up. I basically sorted by Avg FPPG and tried to find good value that way. R. Rubio Brandon Knight Giannis Antetokounmpo Manu Ginobili Kevin Durant (this is the only guy I've heard of) Al-Farouq Aminu Zach Randolph Markieff Morris Kyle O'Quinn
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Nov 2, 2015 18:22
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Marshmallow Blue posted:Threw a dollar into a NBA 50/50. I know nothing about basketball (except I hate Lebron because I am a playoffs only fair-weather Celtics fan)... For a free nba dfs source, I like this guy's methodology: http://joshengleman.com/ He posts projections and shortlists every day for Fan Duel and Draft Kings.
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Nov 2, 2015 18:26
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Yuzenn posted:Whelp, if you didn't play Brees or Eli or Odell or Watson you basically lost money this week. I had none of the big plays and managed to break even somehow  Doing pretty badly overall but I'm glad to only be down $10 from my initial deposit this far in to the season.
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Nov 2, 2015 18:31
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I was really busy at work and took the week off of NFL DFS with the exception of a $0.25 last second homer-inspired Texans stack. Picked a great week to not play.
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Nov 2, 2015 21:02
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Teeter posted:I had none of the big plays and managed to break even somehow Broke even as well sans crazy record setting performance players, although my cash lineups that carried me did play Julio Jones and Todd Gurley.
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Nov 3, 2015 08:15
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AnacondaHL posted:Broke even as well sans crazy record setting performance players, although my cash lineups that carried me did play Julio Jones and Todd Gurley.   
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Nov 3, 2015 09:04
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Sub Par posted:I was really busy at work and took the week off of NFL DFS with the exception of a $0.25 last second homer-inspired Texans stack. Picked a great week to not play. I was in Phoenix. Great week to be in a blocked state; because i would have gotten approximately 0.
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Nov 3, 2015 15:36
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