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gently caress Kentucky so hard. What a bad beat.
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Nov 4, 2015 01:46
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So if Bevin won, Vitter definitely won?
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Nov 4, 2015 01:48
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Eh, these things happen. I think I'll probably buy back in with like $50 tomorrow. e: just for the record, that would be a total of $150 that I've put into the site, versus the $850 check I withdrew and am still burning my way through.
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Nov 4, 2015 01:49
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Vitter ain't for another 2 weeks
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Nov 4, 2015 01:49
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Aliquid posted:So if Bevin won, Vitter definitely won? Polling shows Bitter down way more than Bevin was. I'm holding some of my No shares in the LA R gov market. Didn't touch the KY one, thank god. RIP Kentucky.
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Nov 4, 2015 03:20
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Autocorrect changed Vitter, but I'm fine with that.
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Nov 4, 2015 03:20
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This afternoon I showed PredictIt to my coworker and he was really interested in it. Unfortunately he's not a conservative rube, so you won't be able to bilk him out of money by taking the opposite side of the market. Fortunately, though, he does hail from Louisiana and gave me this hot tip: John Bel Edwards. I was showing him the app on my phone and bought 5 shares of LA R No at 0.75 to demonstrate how it works. John Bel Edwards ride or die!
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Nov 4, 2015 05:58
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Tomato Burger posted:This afternoon I showed PredictIt to my coworker and he was really interested in it. Unfortunately he's not a conservative rube, so you won't be able to bilk him out of money by taking the opposite side of the market. Fortunately, though, he does hail from Louisiana and gave me this hot tip: John Bel Edwards. It looks like Republican NO is a bit cheaper than Democrat YES. I assume that this is the same bet? Seems pretty safe since Edwards is polling double digits ahead Necc0 posted:Yeah we finally have a healthy AM-radio population as well. Check out the comments in the debt ceiling market if you want to know who's money you were taking. Unfortunately I feel like long-term those sorts of people are going to disappear on their own because it's one thing to ignore being wrong about something it's entirely another when being consistently wrong is also costing you money. Score one for the right wing talk radio crowd. I was caught off guard with the last poll of Carson coming in so high. But I look at this as a good thing that will sucker them in, confirm their world view only to lose more later, just as I had some early wins and my greed caused some steep losses. If they lose 100% of the time they won't keep playing. On this LA Governor race, I wonder how many talk radio people are just assume that a Republican deserves to win in all red states? Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 06:42 on Nov 4, 2015 |
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Nov 4, 2015 06:35
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Okay, I think I figured out how to do poll markets. I'm going to buy in the day the polls are released at weird prices and sit on them until they return a slight profit, then sell. That way I can participate, not worry about ending polls and drop-offs, and usually sell out within the first few days. I've already sold half my poll shares from yesterday at about a 20% profit and feel comfortable waiting on swings to fulfill modest sell orders for the rest with 27 days left to go. I'm not violating my instincts and ethics, I have a system with rules. And I only do cocaine on the weekends.
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Nov 4, 2015 06:42
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Zeta Taskforce posted:It looks like Republican NO is a bit cheaper than Democrat YES. I assume that this is the same bet? Seems pretty safe since Edwards is polling double digits ahead Yep! I was initially going to buy D Yes, but since it is a 2-person runoff, R No is exactly the same bet, but cheaper. The price of both are dropping right now, though...
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Nov 4, 2015 16:57
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You know it can be fun to play election results polls, even before they're close to happening:
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Nov 4, 2015 19:08
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Nintendo Kid posted:You know it can be fun to play election results polls, even before they're close to happening: What site is that from?
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Nov 4, 2015 23:57
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Tomato Burger posted:What site is that from? Mediapredict. It's mostly focused on predicting things like box office takes and ratings for shows, but they do politics stuff in election years. And $1000 of site currency is $1 of real currency that you can withdraw - and there's no way to deposit. You start with $10,000 and must gain money through predicting correctly.
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Nov 5, 2015 00:06
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Fox News poll is up, everyone is speculating on whether the CBS poll will drop. If so, chaos will reign in the debate markets. More so than usual, I mean.
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Nov 5, 2015 00:44
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Christ why am I still playing the debate polls. I just sold my Carson shares for what I paid to get out, I can't take it. Should still make a bit of money on Cruz No for the winner and Trump No for the loser. edit: Bought back 25 shares of Carson winning the debate. But it's OK, I'm just going to play the fluctuations and make a little change. I can stop any time I want. User Error has issued a correction as of 01:07 on Nov 5, 2015 |
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Nov 5, 2015 00:52
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railroad terror posted:If I worked at RCP, I'd totally either have a PredictIt account or have somoene do it for me. It'd be too easy not to. My gut was right here railroad terror posted:There's undoubtedly a small risk with Conway. Polls are sometimes wrong (remember when Mongiardo nearly upset Bunning?) and it's KY, and it's off year, but holy crap Bevin is a bad candidate. It'd be VERY surprising if he went from 40-42 in the polls right now, and eked out a win with 46-47% of the vote (assuming the left-leaning independent takes 7-10% away from Conway). And holy poo poo my gut was dead wrong here. That was an interesting week.
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Nov 5, 2015 17:20
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from the Jeb! market:quote:if either Trump or Carson implodes though (I think one is certain to and likely both will) their combined 50% can drastically change the landscape. I'm seeing a long- drawn out primary battle with superdelegates ultimately pushing Bush to win. The same as they did for his brother when voters chose Gore and the superdelegate gave it to W i hope this dude is like Ken M
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Nov 5, 2015 18:33
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Who could forget the Supreme Court superdelegates? Complete misunderstanding of how primaries work aside, a double full implosion by Carson and Trump at about the same time would blow the field up. More likely to happen though is first one the the other fade out, resulting in a far less dramatic upheaval of the field. JEB is still not likely to get anything from it unless Rubio is out though.
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Nov 5, 2015 19:04
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Can someone better explain hedging bets on PredictIt? Like, if I were to invest either way on various candidates on the "Who's Dropping Out Next?" market, how would I calculate what to invest on each of the candidates likeliest to drop out in order to avoid a loss, but still potentially make a profit?
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Nov 5, 2015 19:45
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railroad terror posted:Can someone better explain hedging bets on PredictIt? Like, if I were to invest either way on various candidates on the "Who's Dropping Out Next?" market, how would I calculate what to invest on each of the candidates likeliest to drop out in order to avoid a loss, but still potentially make a profit? Your best bet in those big-field linked markets is to buy "No", never "Yes". That way you're guaranteed to make money on all but one, if not all of your contracts, and until the Linked Market system gets expanded beyond the Obama Approval market, Yes tends to be overpriced across the board.
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Nov 5, 2015 23:23
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Well the Fox Business Debate just shook up the next to drop out market, some interesting buys there as the swing dies down.
pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 01:54 on Nov 6, 2015 |
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Nov 6, 2015 01:52
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Getting back into the next to drop market. Lots of orders going through right now. Yes on Graham may be somewhat underweight, but this is shifting rapidly.
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Nov 6, 2015 03:32
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Vox Nihili posted:Getting back into the next to drop market. Lots of orders going through right now. Given the reasons they're running, and the money involved I'd guess the field is probably going to shake out like this. Remember that scrub tier candidates with no money have some advantages in that they know they've got no money and are just in this for another reason or are already spending almost nothing on this.
Gyges has issued a correction as of 04:27 on Nov 6, 2015 |
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Nov 6, 2015 04:23
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You know reading that list and independently considering each of them I'd say most likely to drop out next would be a tie between Rand / Christie / Kasich. Most of the others are straight-charlatans and will run for as long as they can.
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Nov 6, 2015 04:40
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I think Christie is the most likely because he's got no real reason to do this other than his ego and the memory of what winning would have tasted like last time. Kasich is still coming to terms with the fact that the base wants a comical monkey to do horrifying tricks for them. Rand is still stubbornly doing the Paul thing and loses nothing by continuing to run for President, so there's little real pressure for him to go. Unless he suddenly learns shame, but that holds true for most of the candidates.
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Nov 6, 2015 04:49
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I have money on the line for Rand to not be the next to drop out. Why would he? He knows he has zero chance of winning so it's all about carrying on the Paul tradition of running no chance quixotic campaigns so he can go to debates and talk about how wonderful the constitution is If I had to guess it would be either Huckabee or Cristie because both of them actually thought they would win and Cristie still remembers people begging him to run 4 years ago.
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Nov 6, 2015 05:31
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Gyges posted:I think Christie is the most likely because he's got no real reason to do this other than his ego and the memory of what winning would have tasted like last time. Kasich is still coming to terms with the fact that the base wants a comical monkey to do horrifying tricks for them. Rand is still stubbornly doing the Paul thing and loses nothing by continuing to run for President, so there's little real pressure for him to go. Unless he suddenly learns shame, but that holds true for most of the candidates. Yeah it'll probably either be Christie or one of the no-names
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Nov 6, 2015 06:20
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Zeta Taskforce posted:If I had to guess it would be either Huckabee or Cristie because both of them actually thought they would win and Cristie still remembers people begging him to run 4 years ago. Huckabee absolutely will not drop out until the gravy train stops https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcAhXy9rARk
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Nov 6, 2015 06:21
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Christie is in at least through the next debate and its aftermath, his campaign will hope he makes a splash as the bi fish in the small pond. After that, who knows?
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Nov 6, 2015 17:46
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I have money on the line for Rand to not be the next to drop out. Why would he? He knows he has zero chance of winning so it's all about carrying on the Paul tradition of running no chance quixotic campaigns so he can go to debates and talk about how wonderful the constitution is I think that last point might actually keep Christie around longer. If we start seeing some fringe guys drop out and one of the big two (Carson or Trump) has a meltdown then he's probably thinking he can make the case that he was a potential frontrunner a few years ago and you should totally back him now.
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Nov 6, 2015 17:57
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I don't think anyone is dropping out before the next debate. Graham is only in this to stick it to Rand and Cruz, so he's not out. Christie and Huckabee are going to try and pull a Fiorino. Jindal and Pataki can't be spending much of anything on their campaigns and have already accepted that they're not going to be allowed at the cool kids table. If anyone drops out before the next debate it would be Jeb finally coming to terms with his failure or Carson getting word from the secret chamber beneath the grain in the pyramids that god wants him out.
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Nov 6, 2015 17:57
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http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/ben-carson-west-point-215598 So the media has been turning up the pressure on all of Bennie's stories, and looks like hes starting to crack. Better start betting on a massive Carson drop. People are starting to figure our where all the bodies are buried.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:09
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Carson's done imo, even if it takes two months. The decline begins now.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:20
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The 22%+ market already fell apart, I had bought NOs around 25 and now I'm wondering if I should sell off at 65, which I'm sure is the ceiling for now, or stick to my guns and wait until the end of the month when it's up at 99. He might survive this because it's on a Friday, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:22
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watwat posted:http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/ben-carson-west-point-215598 To be fair the exact same thing happened to Palin and it only made her followers more supportive. Horrible optics for the general but we're in total bizzaro world with this primary. I've given up trying to make heads or tails of things.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:25
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Necc0 posted:To be fair the exact same thing happened to Palin and it only made her followers more supportive. Horrible optics for the general but we're in total bizzaro world with this primary. I've given up trying to make heads or tails of things. I've been quiet in part because there are no real markets I feel like I know for sure will provide a good payoff anymore.  But I'll wait and watch.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:27
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pathetic little tramp posted:The 22%+ market already fell apart, I had bought NOs around 25 and now I'm wondering if I should sell off at 65, which I'm sure is the ceiling for now, or stick to my guns and wait until the end of the month when it's up at 99. I just sold my Carson NO into this spike. I only wish I had more than 25 of them. I would, or sell half of them if you have a lot. I see that sometimes the markets overshoot short term so I'm going to see if I can pick up some YES in the low 30's for a quick bump.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:29
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Yeah I haven't made any bets since Webb. Nothing I really feel confident in for now.
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Nov 6, 2015 18:29
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The only thing I've invested anything into recently was Julian Castro VP yes. Everything else is tied up in long-term shares 
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Nov 6, 2015 18:31
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| # ? May 15, 2024 01:34 |
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I put a decent size bet down on Carson's Iowa performance being less than the market, because he's pretty much peaked. Edit: Specifically my thing is Ben Carson doing less than 23.69% at the Iowa Caucuses Nintendo Kid has issued a correction as of 18:40 on Nov 6, 2015 |
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Nov 6, 2015 18:35
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