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Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

Cliff Racer posted:

What the hell are you people talking about. No Mitt Romney, Jason Kinder isn't going to win Missouri, not unless he gets dragged over the line by a wave election where Democrats have already got control assured by other races.

And no, Nonsense, that reapportionment stuff is bull too because despite the move from blue to red the biggest gerrymanders in the country are in rust belt states where a Democratic win could undo them. Not to mention those Democrats moving south are gradually increasing the Democraticness of those states, while the rust belt slowly turns redder.

Sorry it was a comment from that article with a nice positive rating of concurrence from other readers of that website.

Also Missouri seems very sour on the Democrats since the past 14 months.

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Mitt Romney
Nov 9, 2005
dumb and bad

Cliff Racer posted:

Thats a bullshit article that spends multiple paragraphs discussing how Democrats have an honest to god shot at knocking off the Republican incumbent in Arkansas. Its toilet paper writing, you can set it next to all of the political e-mails from grandma if basis in reality is your criteria.

Here's what the article actually says about Arkansas which is pretty reasonable:

quote:

Arkansas also strongly favors the GOP, but Democrats believe they can make it competitive. Boozman has been privately criticized by Republicans for lackluster fundraising, especially after Eldridge outraised him over the summer. In an interview, the soft-spoken Boozman said Eldridge is too close to Obama and state Democrats. But the first-term senator acknowledged he’s likely to be outspent because of Eldridge’s wealthy father-in-law.

“It makes it much easier now to raise money because people didn’t realize that I had an opponent and really didn’t feel like I was vulnerable,” Boozman said.

The Eldridge campaign believes anti-establishment sentiment and the likely presence of a Clinton on the ballot help its cause. It also sees Boozman as underwhelming, far less impressive than Tom Cotton, who beat Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor by 17 percentage points last year.

But in other, far more winnable states,

Lord of Pie
Mar 2, 2007


I've heard rumors that the Democratic party in Arkansas is already thinking about not supporting Connor Eldridge running for that Senate seat because he's too much of a DINO. Really fiscally conservative, anti abortion, etc. I guess that's a problem for them now because all our old blue dogs got brutally owned.

Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time

Cliff Racer posted:

Thats a bullshit article that spends multiple paragraphs discussing how Democrats have an honest to god shot at knocking off the Republican incumbent in Arkansas. Its toilet paper writing, you can set it next to all of the political e-mails from grandma if basis in reality is your criteria.

hows your day going

De Nomolos
Jan 17, 2007

TV rots your brain like it's crack cocaine
That Panda=Pander tactic sounds really stupid. Who sees a Panda and thinks its a bad thing? "Oh look, someone dressed up as a kindly Panda bear, what is he doing here? Is there a kid's birthday party nearby?"

The Nastier Nate
May 22, 2005

All aboard the corona bus!

HONK! HONK!


Yams Fan

De Nomolos posted:

That Panda=Pander tactic sounds really stupid. Who sees a Panda and thinks its a bad thing? "Oh look, someone dressed up as a kindly Panda bear, what is he doing here? Is there a kid's birthday party nearby?"

Here's a better question - how do I get a job as a staffer following around some guy all day dressed in a panda suit?
No wait, I got a better idea for Pennsylvania. Let's dress a guy up as a Tombstone and say it symbolizes all the dead seniors who died from medicare cuts, call it Toomey's Tombstone.

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 6 hours!

De Nomolos posted:

That Panda=Pander tactic sounds really stupid. Who sees a Panda and thinks its a bad thing? "Oh look, someone dressed up as a kindly Panda bear, what is he doing here? Is there a kid's birthday party nearby?"

Also "pander" as a corruption of "panda" doesn't help the GOP shed their image of "illiterate hick."

De Nomolos
Jan 17, 2007

TV rots your brain like it's crack cocaine

The Nastier Nate posted:

Here's a better question - how do I get a job as a staffer following around some guy all day dressed in a panda suit?
No wait, I got a better idea for Pennsylvania. Let's dress a guy up as a Tombstone and say it symbolizes all the dead seniors who died from medicare cuts, call it Toomey's Tombstone.

We're going to hold a "die-in" against Medicaid cuts in a liberal college town in order to convince liberals to vote against Republicans, you in?

Jackson Taus
Oct 19, 2011

Mitt Romney posted:

Sort of odd that in the 2012 election the margin of victory for Obama in PA was only 5.39%. Lower than IA, WI, NH, NV and match almost exactly CO, all of which are swing states.

There was very minimal campaign activity in PA compared to the more battleground states. If we accept the premise that an Obama-style field campaign is worth several points in the final margin, then we'd expect states like PA to appear to be under-performing and states like WI or NV to appear to be over-performing.

Cliff Racer
Mar 24, 2007

by Lowtax

FAUXTON posted:

Also "pander" as a corruption of "panda" doesn't help the GOP shed their image of "illiterate hick."

Well it is a Missouri race.

carticket
Jun 28, 2005

white and gold.

I just read that Maggie Hassan declared her candidacy. I like this because she can probably win here. I also like that she's listed as strongly opposing taxing the rich as if she is in favor of regressive income taxes, but really that's just NH for you.

Peztopiary
Mar 16, 2009

by exmarx

The Nastier Nate posted:

Here's a better question - how do I get a job as a staffer following around some guy all day dressed in a panda suit?
No wait, I got a better idea for Pennsylvania. Let's dress a guy up as a Tombstone and say it symbolizes all the dead seniors who died from medicare cuts, call it Toomey's Tombstone.

Job implies payment. I know a guy who can get you a mascot internship though. You'll have to run the fan in the suit at your own expense, the campaign has had to tighten the budget.

OhFunny
Jun 26, 2013

EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

funkymonks posted:

Apparently some republicans in NH are talking about a primary challenge to Ayotte. Bill O'Brien our Speaker of the House in 2010 and national laughingstock has reportedly been meeting with the crazies in the NH house to discuss a challenge.

This would just be the best and would almost make having had to put up with his three ring circus from 2010 to 2012 worth the pain and misery.

I just want to bring up the fact that after alienating many by trying to change the process from secret ballot to recorded votes. (Which was voted down) Bill O'Brien failed to receive a majority of votes to be Speaker on the first two ballots. After which the Democrat dropped out and Republican Shawn Jasper jumped in to the race and became Speaker with a majority of Democrats joined by some Republicans.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

it's gonna be a loving tragedy when mccaskill loses her seat in 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yzGA_glnkM

carticket
Jun 28, 2005

white and gold.

funkymonks posted:

Apparently some republicans in NH are talking about a primary challenge to Ayotte. Bill O'Brien our Speaker of the House in 2010 and national laughingstock has reportedly been meeting with the crazies in the NH house to discuss a challenge.

This would just be the best and would almost make having had to put up with his three ring circus from 2010 to 2012 worth the pain and misery.

Maybe they'll run Scott Brown again.

pathetic little tramp
Dec 12, 2005

by Hillary Clinton's assassins
Fallen Rib

Pinterest Mom posted:

it's gonna be a loving tragedy when mccaskill loses her seat in 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yzGA_glnkM

Good God the comments. Americans are absolutely incapable of taking a joke.

Lord of Pie
Mar 2, 2007


Mr. Powers posted:

Maybe they'll run Scott Brown again.

Scott Brown should move to Arkansas and jump on the Senate race dogpile

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 6 hours!

Pinterest Mom posted:

it's gonna be a loving tragedy when mccaskill loses her seat in 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yzGA_glnkM

I lost it at the end of the list. I wish my state had a Senator Sass.

(Instead we just have Senator Sasse, who is a total Bevin-level shitlord)

Nth Doctor
Sep 7, 2010

Darkrai used Dream Eater!
It's super effective!


Pinterest Mom posted:

it's gonna be a loving tragedy when mccaskill loses her seat in 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-yzGA_glnkM

Holy poo poo, this is poetry. :perfect:

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

Lord of Pie posted:

Scott Brown should move to Arkansas and jump on the Senate race dogpile

Scott Brown is in Puerto Rico already running for Senator jumping ahead of Ben Carson endorsing their statehood.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Scott Brown: the first person to lose a Senate vote in every state

Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time

FlamingLiberal posted:

Scott Brown: the first person to lose a Senate vote in every state

this would make me so happy

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005
Seeing Scott Brown fail--again--in 2014 was one of the most satisfying things ever. With the exception of Obama's reelection and Karl Rove pooping his pants live on air, of course.

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
Vitter lost tonight, that makes 2016 more interesting.

Cliff Racer
Mar 24, 2007

by Lowtax
He's also apparently announced that he's not running for re-election so most of that interest, probably, will be in which Republican replaces him. Maybe they'll end up doing something stupid (Jindal!) but it would have to be really stupid to lose a national race in Louisiana in a presidential year.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Cliff Racer posted:

He's also apparently announced that he's not running for re-election so most of that interest, probably, will be in which Republican replaces him. Maybe they'll end up doing something stupid (Jindal!) but it would have to be really stupid to lose a national race in Louisiana in a presidential year.

The buzz is that the 'deal' was Vitter runs for governor and then when he wins (woops) supports Bobby for senate. I hope Bobby's still dumb enough to try it.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Tatum Girlparts posted:

The buzz is that the 'deal' was Vitter runs for governor and then when he wins (woops) supports Bobby for senate. I hope Bobby's still dumb enough to try it.

I thought they were enemies?

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth
Yea but Bobby doesn't really have any friends anymore and Vitter at the time was banking on 'uh I'm a Republican in Louisiana, of COURSE I'm gonna win'. Basically if that's true it's less 'we're friends now' and more 'well either way I can't be governor anymore and you're leaving a seat open, help me get it to keep it R'.

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

jindal is horrifically unpopular in louisiana so i really doubt he gets one of the top two spots in the jungle primary, even if he runs, which i have a hard time seeing

probably a d and an r will make it through to the final and the r will win

Jerry Manderbilt
May 31, 2012

No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.
i'd imagined that given how unpopular diaper boy was, if he stood down next year then another republican without his baggage could retain his seat easily

v i'm aware

Jerry Manderbilt has issued a correction as of 21:38 on Nov 22, 2015

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

he already said he'll stand down next year, in his concession speech last night
http://www.wdsu.com/politics/david-vitter-gives-concession-speech-says-he-will-not-run-for-senate-reelection/36595744

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
In case anyone has a G to blow:

Cliff Racer
Mar 24, 2007

by Lowtax
Before anyone gets pissed at this being held in New York.... thats normal for PA politicians.

The Nastier Nate
May 22, 2005

All aboard the corona bus!

HONK! HONK!


Yams Fan

Cliff Racer posted:

Before anyone gets pissed at this being held in New York.... thats normal for PA politicians.

Doesn't mean I have to like it, it's a pet peeve from republicans and dems.
It's not like she's running for state rep where a district might not have a decent venue.
She has literally the entire state of Pennsylvania to hold a fundraiser, including the 5th biggest city in the United States.

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 6 hours!

The Nastier Nate posted:

Doesn't mean I have to like it, it's a pet peeve from republicans and dems.
It's not like she's running for state rep where a district might not have a decent venue.
She has literally the entire state of Pennsylvania to hold a fundraiser, including the 5th biggest city in the United States.

God forbid she hold it in Philly and catch whatever is afflicting the Eagles.

Nissin Cup Nudist
Sep 3, 2011

Sleep with one eye open

We're off to Gritty Gritty land




GalacticAcid posted:

In case anyone has a G to blow:



lol

I hope sestak clowns her. wait, no i dont. wait ... poo poo :ughh:

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

most fundraising happens outside the area the elected official would represent because most of the money comes from people who wouldn't be represented by the elected official. asking those people to come to the elected official's erstwhile jurisdiction would just be bad begging tactics. you've got to go to where the money is

certainly exacerbated by mcginty being the establishment's favored candidate - they've got to pimp her out to the money people. this is also why she's probably an early favorite to win, although things other than fundraising are certainly predictive

i hope the Hosts and the Sponsors are allowed to spit on the Guests

vv that's interesting thanks for teaching me that knowledge

oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 05:15 on Nov 29, 2015

Cliff Racer
Mar 24, 2007

by Lowtax
For PA it goes a little beyond that. Certain "official" functions, official in this sense meaning they are for the press and politicians, rather than for donors, are held in New York to avoid the whole Philly/Pittsburgh debate. How they don't just treat New York as an extension of Philadelphia is beyond me but then I say that even about things that aren't politics.

Jewel Repetition
Dec 24, 2012

Ask me about Briar Rose and Chicken Chaser.

pathetic little tramp posted:

Good God the comments. Americans are absolutely incapable of taking a joke.

I think they get that it's a joke, their problem is it's a super-sexist joke.

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Sinestro
Oct 31, 2010

The perfect day needs the perfect set of wheels.

Jewel Repetition posted:

I think they get that it's a joke, their problem is it's a super-sexist joke.

there's no such thing as sexism against men, discrimination is a crime of privilege, therefore ~fartz~

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