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My betting on JEB! Yes at .17 worked out. Sold all my shares at .21, bought back in. I'm thinking he goes up to at least .24 or .25 by some point after some drop outs.
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Nov 13, 2015 16:22
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I almost did that last week but was talked out of it here 
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Nov 13, 2015 16:58
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railroad terror posted:My betting on JEB! Yes at .17 worked out. Sold all my shares at .21, bought back in. I'm thinking he goes up to at least .24 or .25 by some point after some drop outs. Couple of days ago I was thinking he was probably going to drop out but he has an absolutely insane amount of SuperPAC money behind him so there's no way they'll let him. That campaign will get cut to the bone before it's allowed to die
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Nov 13, 2015 17:01
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Aliquid posted:I almost did that last week but was talked out of it here All YES shares across the board are significantly overvalued and the Great Adjustment is even closer now.
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Nov 13, 2015 17:02
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Necc0 posted:Couple of days ago I was thinking he was probably going to drop out but he has an absolutely insane amount of SuperPAC money behind him so there's no way they'll let him. That campaign will get cut to the bone before it's allowed to die Yeah, I mean, I'll cut my losses if it starts looking real grim, but there's too much money with Jeb! for him to not stay in till at least January.
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Nov 13, 2015 17:17
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Crossposting this from the R thread: "Rasmussen poll (taken on Wednesday and Thursday... They were really desperate to get results out). Caveats: A. This is Rassy's first poll since August so they might be rusty. B. Rassy was poo poo anyway. Trump 27 Carson 20 Rubio 16 Cruz 13 Jeb! 8 Fiorina 4 Other 7 Undecided 5 We don't yet know how Other breaks down."
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Nov 13, 2015 17:22
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That's great news for Carson < 22%.
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Nov 13, 2015 17:24
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Aliquid posted:That's great news for Carson < 22%. Just about locks up Rubio at 10%+ too.
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Nov 13, 2015 17:44
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I'm beginning to change my thinking about Carson > 22. Seeing how he is weathering these allegations and how the connection with his supporters is less political and more spiritual, I'm thinking he's going to pull it off. 50 is too expensive and so far the reaction to this poll is muted, but I'll be a buyer if YES drops into the upper 30's or low 40's.
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Nov 13, 2015 19:00
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Amazingly, my huge bets on Bush's success are paying off.
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Nov 13, 2015 19:26
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Vox Nihili posted:Crossposting this from the R thread: Yeah, Carson <22 should be a safe bet. My fear right now is that Trump attacking him might backfire to some sympathy, but I think ultimately he continues to slide.
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Nov 13, 2015 21:00
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JosefStalinator posted:Yeah, Carson <22 should be a safe bet. My fear right now is that Trump attacking him might backfire to some sympathy, but I think ultimately he continues to slide. I don't think Carson below 22% is safe. He could easily end the month sitting right at 22%. I do think yes is overvalued there.
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Nov 13, 2015 22:25
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For whatever reason, RCP hasn't included the Rasmussen poll yet. They included the August Rasmussen poll, so I don't know if they're just being lazy on a Friday and not entering the new poll or they decided to no longer count Rassy for whatever reason.
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Nov 14, 2015 04:50
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Patter Song posted:For whatever reason, RCP hasn't included the Rasmussen poll yet. They included the August Rasmussen poll, so I don't know if they're just being lazy on a Friday and not entering the new poll or they decided to no longer count Rassy for whatever reason. They aren't going to include it because the poll didn't ask about all the the candidates.
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Nov 14, 2015 05:29
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Will the moderators bring up Missouri?
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Nov 14, 2015 22:51
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Necc0 posted:Will the moderators bring up Missouri? I have a few bucks on 'No', but this makes me pretty sure it'll happen: https://www.yahoo.com/politics/sanders-aide-pushes-back-against-cbs-switch-to-215805298.html Edit - From the article: quote:“There’s going to be a one-minute or so opening, basically open-ended statement from each of the candidates so they can address Paris,” the staffer said. “Then they’re going to have the first 20-minute segment be foreign policy focused because of what happened in Paris, and then they’re going to go back to the debate as it was normally structured." Regis Christ has issued a correction as of 00:39 on Nov 15, 2015 |
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Nov 15, 2015 00:23
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Regis Christ posted:I have a few bucks on 'No', but this makes me pretty sure it'll happen: Debate is being focused on foreign policy & terrorism so I think No is a good bet as well.
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Nov 15, 2015 00:36
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I threw $10 on Yes, the Fox Business GOP debate was supposed to be focused on the economy and they went off on some pretty strange tangents there.
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Nov 15, 2015 01:27
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My gut says that even if they want to bring it up, it'll just be a generic prompt about race relations. I doubt the moderators would make it that specific. If nothing else, it looks like the price is trending up toward 50/50, so it's probably a good idea to buy No for a quick flip, even if you plan on switching to Yes.
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Nov 15, 2015 01:36
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I bought No at $.36 and am tempted to back out right now. gently caress it. LET IT RIDE
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Nov 15, 2015 02:57
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Necc0 posted:I bought No at $.36 and am tempted to back out right now. gently caress it. LET IT RIDE Really salty that I missed my chance to make a bet on this market. Would have been No all the way.
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Nov 15, 2015 03:35
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Man, linking can sure make it hard to get out of a market when most of your initial sells actually cost money from your available pool to do.
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Nov 15, 2015 04:07
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There's your Missouri mention. All you no holders just lost!
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Nov 15, 2015 04:31
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gently caress
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Nov 15, 2015 04:32
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Good thing I sold my NO's.
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Nov 15, 2015 04:32
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I whiffed on this and the Starbucks market. Don't bet on utterance markets.
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Nov 15, 2015 04:33
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I've now washed away all my Biden winnings 
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Nov 15, 2015 04:35
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Necc0 posted:I've now washed away all my Biden winnings You didn't withdraw any? gently caress, I'm wearing a silk man thong I bought with my Biden winnings right now. I just went ahead and bought 90 shares for O'Malley being the winner of the debate, wish me luck.
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Nov 15, 2015 04:39
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The Hillary speaking time market was a safe bet. Making a nice quick buck tonight.
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Nov 15, 2015 04:41
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Wanamingo posted:You didn't withdraw any? gently caress, I'm wearing a silk man thong I bought with my Biden winnings right now. Nah I'm patient. Plus I don't want to give any of those Yes bastards even the slightest of vindication. I bought O'Malley winning as well for a really good price. Fingers crossed.
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Nov 15, 2015 04:43
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I was waiting for Missouri, I must have missed it but 
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Nov 15, 2015 04:45
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tinstaach posted:I was waiting for Missouri, I must have missed it but You missed it.
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Nov 15, 2015 04:53
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watwat posted:The Hillary speaking time market was a safe bet. Making a nice quick buck tonight. Same, though it looks like most of my shares sold over just prior to the debate. Should have held more, but I can't turn down that safe profit.
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Nov 15, 2015 11:42
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Necc0 posted:Couple of days ago I was thinking he was probably going to drop out but he has an absolutely insane amount of SuperPAC money behind him so there's no way they'll let him. That campaign will get cut to the bone before it's allowed to die Millions in SuperPACs didn't save Walker
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Nov 15, 2015 18:02
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i dont play this bullshit, but ill gladly accept money from goons who want entirely accurate predictions on polling, im correct 100 percent of the time, im a pro-tier analyst sometimes i read this thread and shake my head at the ignorance. yall bunch of Karl Roves
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Nov 15, 2015 18:05
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Fuschia tude posted:Millions in SuperPACs didn't save Walker Right but he was also entirely incompetent at running a national campaign. I really doubt Jebs campaign will make the same mistakes especially when they already saw what happened to Walker and with the establishment helping them every step of the way.
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Nov 15, 2015 19:20
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Smoothrich 2.0 posted:i dont play this bullshit, but ill gladly accept money from goons who want entirely accurate predictions on polling, im correct 100 percent of the time, im a pro-tier analyst Feel free to call some markets whenever you inevitably re-reg.
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Nov 15, 2015 21:02
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Outside Kentucky, has the thread consensus been wrong?
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Nov 15, 2015 21:34
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Gyges posted:Outside Kentucky, has the thread consensus been wrong? I think it's pretty rare for the thread to get to the point of a consensus, but insofar as it actually occurs I don't think people here have been wrong too often.
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Nov 15, 2015 21:44
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So if anyone is interested, looks like some of the Nov 30 poll markets are starting to heat up. Carson tanked today and I think Trump is still pretty cheap considering the news coverage.
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Nov 16, 2015 00:47
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