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Hollismason posted:Like seriously if he maintains his poll numbers is it possible we could see Trump as a presidential nominee because seriously when is he going to crash and burn. I really want to believe that the Establishment Republicans will pull some trickery at the convention and select Bush or Rubio (probably Rubio). Trump will run 3rd party, and then we get 1968. They might instead suck it up, and hope he doesn't go too rogue.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:36
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Nov 19, 2015 23:37
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Hollismason posted:Like seriously if he maintains his poll numbers is it possible we could see Trump as a presidential nominee because seriously when is he going to crash and burn. It only gets bigger if you get rid of everyone else. 
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Nov 19, 2015 23:38
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That 1/3 of voters would sit out rather than vote for any of those three is pretty significant.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:40
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Hollismason posted:Hahahaha but thats what we are doing almost every day. bombing the poo poo out of them. What would be any different. other then Boots on the ground or whatever the newest scheme is.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:40
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Hollismason posted:Like seriously if he maintains his poll numbers is it possible we could see Trump as a presidential nominee because seriously when is he going to crash and burn. According to Jeb!, December 15. I'm so excited!
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Nov 19, 2015 23:40
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Donald J. Trump is the inevitable result of an entire couple generations of educators telling children that even You can become President.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:41
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Dapper_Swindler posted:but thats what we are doing almost every day. bombing the poo poo out of them. What would be any different. other then Boots on the ground or whatever the newest scheme is. No, you see, Obama is Weak on Terrorism despite constantly bombing and droning the Middle East, just like he's Bad for The Economy despite unemployment dropping. Fox News said it, I believe it, that settles it!
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Nov 19, 2015 23:42
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Hollismason posted:Like seriously if he maintains his poll numbers is it possible we could see Trump as a presidential nominee because seriously when is he going to crash and burn. He had this two hour event in Iowa last weekend where he was completely unhinged and mocking Carson and calling Iowans stupid: the media said this was finally it. This was Trump finally crashing and running out of steam. Nope, it was the killing blow to Carson.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:43
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zoux posted:That 1/3 of voters would sit out rather than vote for any of those three is pretty significant. The same holds true for the Independents polled on the Democratic primary, so the effect is just as easily attributed to the "Independents" polled just showing their true party colors. :\ 
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Nov 19, 2015 23:43
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zoux posted:Dear god the new Ipsos/Reuters post Paris poll . I'm eagerly waiting for the GOP base to "sober up" and pick Rubio any minute now while Trump continues to pour high octane gin down their throats. I mean, quote:I will also quickly and decisively bomb the hell out of ISIS. This is a real ad tag line that's utterly indistinguishable from something The Onion would print. He's the dream candidate of the conservative id: an invincible racist, completely immune from media scrutiny, who's finally saying what they've been thinking in the most simple and bombastic language possible. At this point the only way to get rid of Trump is to literally kidnap him and drop him in he middle of the ocean. He's not going away, and his crazy Mussolini talking points are only helping him.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:43
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I would be blown away if Trump doesn't drop out voluntarily before the convention. Even if he's won a few states.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:44
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Rhesus Pieces posted:This is a real ad tag line that's utterly indistinguishable from something The Onion would print. It's especially glorious since we've been bombing the poo poo out of ISIS where possible for months.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:45
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Pook Good Mook posted:I would be blown away if Trump doesn't drop out voluntarily before the convention. Even if he's won a few states. Why would you even think this?
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Nov 19, 2015 23:47
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Pook Good Mook posted:I would be blown away if Trump doesn't drop out voluntarily before the convention. Even if he's won a few states. Why? It's a vanity run and all of a sudden the delusion of hey I could win ain't a delusion no more.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:48
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Combed Thunderclap posted:The same holds true for the Independents polled on the Democratic primary, so the effect is just as easily attributed to the "Independents" polled just showing their true party colors. :\ I hate goddamn lying independent voters so much.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:48
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Hollismason posted:Like seriously if he maintains his poll numbers is it possible we could see Trump as a presidential nominee because seriously when is he going to crash and burn. He won't be the nominee
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Nov 19, 2015 23:48
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Hollismason posted:Why would you even think this? I guess you can hope he's like Lex Luthor realizing that he has more power right now than he would as President, but that is assuming Trump is half as self-aware as Luthor.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:48
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Hollismason posted:Like seriously if he maintains his poll numbers is it possible we could see Trump as a presidential nominee because seriously when is he going to crash and burn. Combed Thunderclap posted:It's especially glorious since we've been bombing the poo poo out of ISIS where possible for months.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:50
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Can we go back and just quote all the people from the last 6 months saying Trump is going to burn out by X event. It's so loving weeeeird , like what the hell is going on?
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Nov 19, 2015 23:51
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Fried Chicken posted:He won't be the nominee Yes he will. The situations he wins are now much more reasonable than where he doesn't. Everyone's been talking about how the establishment always finally wins, but he's taking those voters. fade5 posted:Rubio is the guy to watch now. If he gets and holds at least second place, then he could knock down Trump. If Trump manages to do to Rubio what he did to Jeb! though, then all bets are off. Voters don't actually like Rubio, just the Republican Establishment. He's taking votes from Jeb, not anywhere else really.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:52
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Fried Chicken posted:He won't be the nominee But what do we do if he does end up being the nominee? (I mean, aside from laughing our asses off while Hillary strolls away with 400+ electoral votes.)
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Nov 19, 2015 23:54
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greatn posted:Why? It's a vanity run and all of a sudden the delusion of hey I could win ain't a delusion no more. Are you kidding? He'd then be able to level up that vanity run. The best way to top "I was almost the nominee of a party to run for president" is "I was almost Actually President" And of course, if he gets elected...well, drat. Talk about your culmination. "Yeah, I made billions, bought and sold casinos, crushed a political dynasty and an entire party into fine paste, and oh yeah, became POTUS. Suck it, haters." They're going to do all they can to keep him from being the nominee, but there's only so many tricks you can pull before massively pissing off your base and goading them into open revolt. It's one thing to have your establishment candidate persevere and win out (and have them vote straight-ticket R), it's entirely another to have the guy who's polling yuge and possibly winning a fair number of states blatantly frozen out/denied. THAT will not escape notice (not that The Donald would ever let it) and if there's ever anything that will break the base, that's it. If he implodes prior to February, the unclenching of GOP assholes will be audible, violent, and unmistakable.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:54
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Where's the toxx thread for Donald Trump being the nominee?
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Nov 19, 2015 23:54
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Hollismason posted:Can we go back and just quote all the people from the last 6 months saying Trump is going to burn out by X event. It's so loving weeeeird , like what the hell is going on? Trump is like the villains in Funny Games. He knows he's in a movie, and he keeps rewinding and fixing it.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:54
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evilweasel posted:Yes he will. The situations he wins are now much more reasonable than where he doesn't. Everyone's been talking about how the establishment always finally wins, but he's taking those voters You still think he gets crushed in the general though, right?
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Nov 19, 2015 23:55
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foobardog posted:I guess you can hope he's like Lex Luthor realizing that he has more power right now than he would as President, but that is assuming Trump is half as self-aware as Luthor. Didn't Lex Luthor become president in the comics.
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Nov 19, 2015 23:55
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Pook Good Mook posted:I would be blown away if Trump doesn't drop out voluntarily before the convention. Even if he's won a few states. greatn posted:Why? It's a vanity run and all of a sudden the delusion of hey I could win ain't a delusion no more. Trump is definitely high on his own supply now, he seriously believes he can win, and I'm coming closer to the idea that if Rubio falls then Trump just might win the nomination. Fried Chicken posted:He won't be the nominee fade5 fucked around with this message at 23:58 on Nov 19, 2015 |
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Nov 19, 2015 23:56
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Kurtofan posted:Didn't Lex Luthor become president in the comics. I don't really read comics, I just saw this scene from the cartoons: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI0vtqxoG1k
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Nov 19, 2015 23:58
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evilweasel posted:Yes he will. The situations he wins are now much more reasonable than where he doesn't. Everyone's been talking about how the establishment always finally wins, but he's taking those voters. As much as I wish that were the case he is still dead. Yes, he or Carson now basically have Iowa locked. That is the point the rest of the party will panic and there will be enormous pressure on everyone not named {current establishment frontrunner} to drop out. Now, you might say that these people don't give a poo poo and up until a certain point you would be right, but Jeb/Rubio and to a lesser extent Paul are still Republican enough to understand the party would be destroyed if they don't, so somebody is going to be someone else's VP nom and that will be the end of that. At the absolute worst rock bottom establishment case the Trumpster keeps on rolling and the superdelegates step in, because when he's down 20 in the general headed into the convention the gloves will come off even at the cost of splitting the party. e: picked up some Carly at 180:1 on Betfair today. Prices are pretty nuts!
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Nov 20, 2015 00:01
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Do Republicans have super Delegates? I'm pretty sure that was a DNC thing.
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Nov 20, 2015 00:03
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When does Reince start disavowing people from the party?
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Nov 20, 2015 00:05
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Agreed.
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Nov 20, 2015 00:05
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Joementum posted:Same, Lisa. Same. What's the context/chart?
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Nov 20, 2015 00:05
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Joementum posted:Agreed. "PppryfpppdygpdydygdyjddjdyjydyyyjdyddddydyyajtTtTttTtyttTte" - the last sound the guy I killed ever made
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Nov 20, 2015 00:06
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zoux posted:You still think he gets crushed in the general though, right? Definitely, nothing's changed about how toxic he is to everyone else. Republicans just have had it with this "sanity" business.
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Nov 20, 2015 00:06
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DOOP posted:What's the context/chart? speaking of, what's the tumblr?
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Nov 20, 2015 00:06
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Adar posted:As much as I wish that were the case he is still dead. You wanna toxx for that? 
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Nov 20, 2015 00:07
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Adar posted:As much as I wish that were the case he is still dead. Yes, he or Carson now basically have Iowa locked. That is the point the rest of the party will panic and there will be enormous pressure on everyone not named {current establishment frontrunner} to drop out. Now, you might say that these people don't give a poo poo and up until a certain point you would be right, but Jeb/Rubio and to a lesser extent Paul are still Republican enough to understand the party would be destroyed if they don't, so somebody is going to be someone else's VP nom and that will be the end of that. It's not Iowa that's the issue. Iowa goes for unelectable loons all the time. It's that Trump has New Hampshire locked, and if an establishment guy can't beat Trump in New Hampshire he can't anywhere, and Trump is becoming the second choice of other people more and more. I mean, you have to assume that for the voters in this chart, Rubio is far and away the second choice of Carson voters for him to have a chance. My money is that people who like Carson like Trump more than Rubio.
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Nov 20, 2015 00:08
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Adar posted:As much as I wish that were the case he is still dead. Yes, he or Carson now basically have Iowa locked. That is the point the rest of the party will panic and there will be enormous pressure on everyone not named {current establishment frontrunner} to drop out. Now, you might say that these people don't give a poo poo and up until a certain point you would be right, but Jeb/Rubio and to a lesser extent Paul are still Republican enough to understand the party would be destroyed if they don't, so somebody is going to be someone else's VP nom and that will be the end of that. Here's the thing though: there's no scenario where an "establishment" candidate actually wins. Enough of the Republican voters have shown that they don't want an establishment candidate, period. Even if you combine, say, Rubio and Jeb and Paul into one person, that person's combined vote total probably isn't enough to push out Trump. And if it gets to the point of superdelegates, a certain fraction are going to back the winning horse just because it's winning, gently caress everything else. Most of the republican superdelegates are elected officials who will have the same perverse incentives that are currently locking the House into the extreme wing of the party; they're answerable to Republican primary voters, not to the general public. ( see: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/25/the-g-o-p-s-fuzzy-delegate-math/ ) And those primary voters will have just chosen Trump. The "establishment will save us" argument relies on the notion that there exists such an establishment. There doesn't. Inmates run this asylum. Trump gonna win.
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Nov 20, 2015 00:09
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