The neverending Weekend Web thread for bad posts about football

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Ray Parlour > The neverending Weekend Web thread for bad posts about football

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advanced statsman: Dec 26, 2012; ISLAM FC

Ewar Woowar posted:

Chilean coach on possession
https://mobile.twitter.com/atosoccer/status/667110299686817792/photo/1

Wrong thread?

And the man who took her? Paul Scholes

# ? Nov 20, 2015 11:39

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# ? May 15, 2024 22:47

Poonior Toilett: Aug 21, 2004; m'lady

advanced statsman posted:

And the man who took her? Paul Scholes

@DannyPage: @atosoccer @JuanG_Arango "Possession" in reference to a woman seems phenomenally problematic to me!

Sports analytics, programming, data visualizations. Current focus on NWSL/MLS

# ? Nov 20, 2015 13:49

peanut-: Feb 17, 2004; Fun Shoe

Jermaine Dildoe posted:

@DannyPage: @atosoccer @JuanG_Arango "Possession" in reference to a woman seems phenomenally problematic to me!

Sports analytics, programming, data visualizations. Current focus on NWSL/MLS

https://medium.com/@dannypage/expected-goals-just-don-t-add-up-they-also-multiply-1dfd9b52c7d0#.a2c9z8u7e

quote:

1. Imagine a striker takes a solid shot at the keeper, evaluated at 0.25 xG. It�s deflected by the keeper.
2. That midfielder takes a volley, worth 0.4 xG. It bounces off the crossbar.
3. The chasing wingback moves into the area, collects the rebound and scores a close header, worth 0.6 xG.

How should we evaluate this attack? If we added these shots together, it would equal 1.25 xG, which is a meaningless number. This would seem to mean that a goal was certain, but we know that�s not true. Likely, but definitely not 100% (or 125%!) certain. If you remember Independent Probabilities from stats class, this will be familiar:

A = 0.25 | A' = 0.75 // P(A) means 25% chance of it happening
B = 0.40 | B' = 0.60 // The ' in B' means not converting the shot.
C = 0.60 | C' = 0.40 // P(Goal) is overall chance of a goal
Addition // Bad
P(Goal) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) = 0.25 + 0.4 + 0.6 = 1.25
Multiplication // Good
P(Goal) = P(A) + P(A' | B) + P( C | A'| B')
P(Goal) = 0.25 + 0.75*0.40 + 0.60*0.60*0.75
P(Goal) = 0.25 + 0.30 + 0.27
P(Goal) = 0.82

Therefore, we can see that with multiplication, we can appropriately determine the chance of a set of shots producing one goal. In this case, the 3-shot attack would have produced a goal 82% of the time.

# ? Nov 20, 2015 14:24

Literally Lewis Hamilton: Feb 22, 2005

peanut- posted:

https://medium.com/@dannypage/expected-goals-just-don-t-add-up-they-also-multiply-1dfd9b52c7d0#.a2c9z8u7e

Definitely right thread

# ? Nov 20, 2015 14:26

Poonior Toilett: Aug 21, 2004; m'lady

"a meaningless number" he scoffs

# ? Nov 20, 2015 15:26

Poonior Toilett: Aug 21, 2004; m'lady

http://dannypage.github.io/expected_goals.html

# ? Nov 20, 2015 15:29

Cpt. Mahatma Gandhi: Mar 26, 2005

Ewar Woowar posted:

Chilean coach on possession
https://mobile.twitter.com/atosoccer/status/667110299686817792/photo/1

Wrong thread?

Bravissimo.

# ? Nov 20, 2015 16:07

TheBigAristotle: Feb 8, 2007; I'm tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money.
I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok.; Grimey Drawer

lol we've got a live one

Jermaine Dildoe posted:

@DannyPage: @atosoccer @JuanG_Arango "Possession" in reference to a woman seems phenomenally problematic to me!

Sports analytics, programming, data visualizations. Current focus on NWSL/MLS

@DannyPage:
But please, before sharing the coach's quote, think for a second why it may be problematic, and what it says about you if you agree with it.

@DannyPage
Why it's sexist:
1) Measuring the "possession" of a woman
2) For the goal of only sex
3) "Grab and took her at 5 am" sounds a lot like rape!

# ? Nov 20, 2015 16:13

ephex: Nov 4, 2007; PHWOAR CRIMINAL

I want to punch that guy in the face repeatedly

# ? Nov 20, 2015 17:08

straight up brolic: Jan 31, 2007; After all, I was nice in ball,
Came to practice weed scented
Report card like the speed limit

TheBigAristotle posted:

lol we've got a live one

@DannyPage:
But please, before sharing the coach's quote, think for a second why it may be problematic, and what it says about you if you agree with it.

@DannyPage
Why it's sexist:
1) Measuring the "possession" of a woman
2) For the goal of only sex
3) "Grab and took her at 5 am" sounds a lot like rape!

this guy is a twink

# ? Nov 20, 2015 17:10

TheBigAristotle: Feb 8, 2007; I'm tired of hearing about money, money, money, money, money.
I just want to play the game, drink Pepsi, wear Reebok.; Grimey Drawer

@DannyPage: From the new data: Jozy Altidore went on a tear this year. Repeatable? I don't know. #TFC

# ? Nov 20, 2015 17:30

jyrka: Jan 21, 2005; Potato Count: 2 small potatoes

Is there a more entertaining illness than autism?

# ? Nov 20, 2015 17:51

sassassin: Apr 3, 2010; by Azathoth

jyrka posted:

Is there a more entertaining illness than autism?

What did Darren Fletcher have?

# ? Nov 20, 2015 17:54

Brendan Rodgers: Jun 11, 2014

jyrka posted:

Is there a more entertaining illness than autism?

People with milder schizophrenia are pretty entertaining.

# ? Nov 20, 2015 18:32

Shrapnig: Jan 21, 2005

sassassin posted:

What did Darren Fletcher have?

Nothing, he just really enjoyed recreating your posts.

# ? Nov 20, 2015 19:00

Cpt. Mahatma Gandhi: Mar 26, 2005

jyrka posted:

Is there a more entertaining illness than autism?

4 Ballon's is tough to beat

# ? Nov 20, 2015 19:03

Ewar Woowar: Feb 25, 2007

Shrapnig posted:

Nothing, he just really enjoyed recreating your posts.

Lol

# ? Nov 20, 2015 20:59

African AIDS cum: Feb 29, 2012; Welcome back, welcome back, welcome baaaack

Jermaine Dildoe posted:

@DannyPage: @atosoccer @JuanG_Arango "Possession" in reference to a woman seems phenomenally problematic to me!

Sports analytics, programming, data visualizations. Current focus on NWSL/MLS

lol

# ? Nov 20, 2015 22:23

paddyboat: Feb 20, 2013; Maxi, Maxi Rodriguez
Run down the wing for me

Jermaine Dildoe posted:

http://dannypage.github.io/expected_goals.html

Girl, this my JAM

# ? Nov 20, 2015 23:35

not not luvd: Nov 17, 2006; My Arse!

ffs that guy is a loving nonce

# ? Nov 21, 2015 11:54

Chris de Sperg: Aug 14, 2009

JFairfax posted:

A Millwall fan has explained his decision to name his baby son Bermondsey Millwall Den Bloomfield without telling his wife first.

Mike Bloomfield, a life-long supporter who now lives in Croydon, told Southwark News he made the decision without the agreement of his wife, Kelly, saying it would be “a good way to get the next generation involved”.

He told the newspaper: “If David Beckham can name his son Brooklyn, then I can name mine Bermondsey. I just love Millwall … One of the women at the registry office was a Millwall fan and she loved it when she saw what we are going to name him. I threatened to do it but I don’t think my wife believed me! I’m not sure how she’s going to react.”

His wife later told the paper the name was “growing on me … He was a bit frightened to come home. I’m coming around to it though and I quite like it. I think he looks a bit like a Bermondsey and it’s definitely unique. I don’t think anyone else has got a name like that.

“The funny thing is that we actually live in Croydon and are surrounded by Crystal Palace fans. Our friends who are Palace fans say that they’re just going to call him Dave instead.”

wrong thread

# ? Nov 21, 2015 16:56

Weaponized Cum: Aug 31, 2004; This post brought to you by the finest Miami cocaine money can buy ----->

# ? Nov 21, 2015 20:36

HappyCamperGL: May 18, 2014

Weaponized Cum posted:

Lol, wrong thread.

# ? Nov 21, 2015 20:54

jre: Sep 2, 2011; To the cloud ?

# ? Nov 23, 2015 22:33

Sneaks McDevious: Jul 29, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

jre posted:

That's actually exceptional

# ? Nov 23, 2015 23:28

Crazy Ted: Jul 29, 2003

Another Billy Haisley special...

Of everything that happened in this Cl�sico�a half-strength Barcelona waltzing into the Bernab�u and not only beating a full-strength Real Madrid team that desperately needed a win, but pummeling them in gloriously humiliating fashion; the notoriously careful Rafa Ben�tez basically being pressured by his president and/or fans into throwing caution to the wind and putting out an uncharacteristically attack-minded team, which promptly blew up in his face; watching two players (Neymar and Su�rez) whom Madrid missed out on come into town and destroy them�my mind keeps coming back to Sergi Roberto.

That's a 93-word opening sentence, if you're counting at home.

# ? Nov 24, 2015 00:12

ronniegardocki: Apr 14, 2012; by Lowtax

# ? Nov 24, 2015 13:16

sassassin: Apr 3, 2010; by Azathoth

ronniegardocki posted:

wrong thread

# ? Nov 24, 2015 13:22

quiet enjoyment: May 11, 2009

Imagining Every Premier League Team As a Simpsons Character http://teamstre.am/1Shauok

Arsenal is Ms. Krabappel!?

# ? Nov 24, 2015 13:38

jesus WEP: Oct 17, 2004

Right thread, Spurs aren't even Krusty

# ? Nov 24, 2015 14:14

ronniegardocki: Apr 14, 2012; by Lowtax

sassassin posted:

wrong thread

# ? Nov 24, 2015 16:30

XBenedict: May 23, 2006; YOUR LIPS SAY 0, BUT YOUR EYES SAY 1.

quiet enjoyment posted:

Imagining Every Premier League Team As a Simpsons Character http://teamstre.am/1Shauok

Arsenal is Ms. Krabappel!?

"Hi, I'm Liverpool! You may remember from such successes as the 1980s!"

# ? Nov 24, 2015 16:37

dex_sda: Oct 11, 2012

ronniegardocki posted:

the wrongest of threads

# ? Nov 24, 2015 17:08

blue footed boobie: Sep 14, 2012; UEFA SUPREMACY

quiet enjoyment posted:

Imagining Every Premier League Team As a Simpsons Character http://teamstre.am/1Shauok

Arsenal is Ms. Krabappel!?

This is actually spot on despite the concept being stupid.

# ? Nov 24, 2015 17:56

Thrifting Day!: Nov 25, 2006

# ? Nov 24, 2015 22:11

advanced statsman: Dec 26, 2012; ISLAM FC

blue footed boobie posted:

This is actually spot on despite the concept being stupid.

it's the loving worst

# ? Nov 25, 2015 09:28

Shrapnig: Jan 21, 2005

quiet enjoyment posted:

Imagining Every Premier League Team As a Simpsons Character http://teamstre.am/1Shauok

Arsenal is Ms. Krabappel!?

Someone got paid to make that.

# ? Nov 25, 2015 09:57

corpuscollossus: Apr 19, 2007

I'm a lesser person for having gone through that slideshow

# ? Nov 25, 2015 12:30

corpuscollossus: Apr 19, 2007

Also Arsenal is Bart. Cowabunga Dude.

# ? Nov 25, 2015 12:31

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# ? May 15, 2024 22:47

R. Guyovich: Dec 25, 1991

So whats up with Alexis? Looks exhausted before the break, looks injured during the break, comes back in our last two games and looks like our best player.

hmmm yes what a mystery

# ? Nov 25, 2015 16:43

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Ray Parlour > The neverending Weekend Web thread for bad posts about football

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