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That said Jeb isn't McCain and Trump isn't Giuliani but the statistical model doesn't know that.
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Nov 20, 2015 16:56
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Any statistician worth their salt should happily adjust their predictive models to reflect new data, and this is especially true when when their current models are based on a statistically insignificant number of samples and otherwise limited data. Nate Silver shook things up when he first entered political punditry because he was using data instead of gut feelings. But I suspect the politicization of his blog (in the sense that he and the blog has the "reputation" that he feels he has to protect) has lead him to stubbornly stick to his guns instead of dispassionately updating his models. He and the blog are also becoming much more punditlike, in their usage of "conventional wisdom" that is similarity derived from gut feelings and insufficient sample size. Dude just isn't good at statistics.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:01
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Lord of Pie posted:Buying up a ton of TV ads is a huge waste anyway because you're lucky if people pay attention to them the first time, and the more they run the more they get tuned out until you reach that magical point where you actively piss people off with all your loving constant ads. I have an example of this, that stupid pickup truck ad that tries to equate HARD WORK with Hunger Games. Been seeing it several times a night. 
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Nov 20, 2015 17:02
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I think nate's point is that Trump can't ride like 12% of the country to the white house so boosted needs to stop crowing that it's a done deal.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:05
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Joementum posted:Which is true. In the extremely low chance of a brokered convention, Walker is a reasonable compromise candidate, making his chance of being the nominee non-zero. This is operating under the assumption that the party would rather self-destruct than ever have Donald Trump as their candidate? Because that is a valid point.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:05
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William Bear posted:Why would Nate Silver dismissively mention that only 25% of America identifies as Republican? It doesn't seem relevant to discussion of Donald Trump's position in the Republican primaries, in which Republicans tend to vote. because people keep bugging him with messages to the effect of "since he's the leading Republican (with a tiny plurality of the Republican vote), he's surely going to win the presidency!!". Montasque posted:This is operating under the assumption that the party would rather self-destruct than ever have Donald Trump as their candidate? The RNC is exactly the sort of spiteful pricks who'd rules lawyer their way to ensuring that even if The Donald got all the delegates they still wouldn't give him the nomination.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:09
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TheLemonOfIchabod posted:He didn't, but for him and everyone else on his site to say Jeb! is still TWICE as likely as Trump at this point (this was in their most recent update on the field) is ridiculous and simply asking for failure. Right, I'm aware of their guesses, but was making the point that it's not the result of a "predictive model" in a statistical sense.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:14
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Hey guys, here's a list of people Donald Trump will be blasting on twitter in the coming weeks: https://mgtvwcmh.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/new-day-for-america.pdf
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Nov 20, 2015 17:14
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fishmech posted:The RNC is exactly the sort of spiteful pricks who'd rules lawyer their way to ensuring that even if The Donald got all the delegates they still wouldn't give him the nomination. You know, other than constantly confirming how terrible a good portion of my countrymen's opinions are, this Trump thing has been great. I think he's done a lot of damage to the GOP whether he gets the nomination or not, but I think my favorite scenario to imagine is that he remains popular and the RNC pulls the nomination out from under him, enraging/splitting the voting base of the party.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:16
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Monkey Fracas posted:You know, other than constantly confirming how terrible a good portion of my countrymen's opinions are, this Trump thing has been great. Do you know what would have been great? Pushing the party left, to maybe allow some constructive work in the future.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:30
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Would the Republicans do that, though? I have a hard time believing they would. Are there even any rules that would ALLOW them to just seize whole state delegations to deny Trump the 1100 or so delegates he'd need on the first ballot?
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Nov 20, 2015 17:31
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Montasque posted:This is operating under the assumption that the party would rather self-destruct than ever have Donald Trump as their candidate? I think it's fair to say that if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, the party will have self-destructed for all intents and purposes.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:34
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Alter Ego posted:Would the Republicans do that, though? I have a hard time believing they would. Are there even any rules that would ALLOW them to just seize whole state delegations to deny Trump the 1100 or so delegates he'd need on the first ballot? No, but they would have a very good shot of blocking him on the second ballot if he had, say, 45% of delegates. Some states do have candidates select their delegates, but others the delegates are party-selected and just bound to a candidate on the first ballot. Trump might well find his support evaporating on the second ballot in a brokered scenario.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:35
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Moktaro posted:I have an example of this, that stupid pickup truck ad that tries to equate HARD WORK with Hunger Games. Been seeing it several times a night.  WE SALUTE THE HEROES OF THE HUNGER GAMES
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Nov 20, 2015 17:36
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I have to admit, if you had told me a month ago that "Muslim Database" would appear in headlines...I would have guessed it came from leaks about an existing NSA program and not a proposal from a presidential candidate.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:38
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Patter Song posted:No, but they would have a very good shot of blocking him on the second ballot if he had, say, 45% of delegates. Some states do have candidates select their delegates, but others the delegates are party-selected and just bound to a candidate on the first ballot. So all they'd have to do is deny him an outright majority. If they keep his numbers down in larger states (Florida, Texas, California, New York, Pennsylvania, etc), then they might be able to convince smaller states to flip on a second ballot. Question is--flip to who? Will Jeb! still be alive by that time? Will White Knight Mitt come riding in on a Meanwhile this convention gets better ratings than the convention episode of "The West Wing" because everyone wants to watch the Republicans eat their young.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:39
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Bryter posted:I think it's fair to say that if Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, the party will have self-destructed for all intents and purposes. I think the series of events needed to secure a Trump nomination(economic crisis, terrorist attacks) are the same set of events that would make him strong in the national election. Donald Trump is an antifragile black swan candidate, the Talebian nightmare is here.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:41
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meristem posted:Do you know what would have been great? Pushing the party left, to maybe allow some constructive work in the future. Who in the GOP is going to do this Who
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Nov 20, 2015 17:42
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Montasque posted:I think the series of events needed to secure a Trump nomination(economic crisis, terrorist attacks) are the same set of events that would make him strong in the national election. I agree that, if Trump were to be the nominee, we have no idea what the general election would look like. And we'll never know.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:49
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Monkey Fracas posted:Who in the GOP is going to do this whoever the netroots Democrats latch onto as "the good one" after they realize John Kasich is a shithead maybe we can trot out Jon Huntsman again
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Nov 20, 2015 17:49
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GalacticAcid posted:I have to admit, if you had told me a month ago that "Muslim Database" would appear in headlines...I would have guessed it came from leaks about an existing NSA program and not a proposal from a presidential candidate. Well if he is president, then I'm sure it'll show up in loads of NSA documents
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Nov 20, 2015 17:49
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Joementum posted:I agree that, if Clownstick were to be the nominee, we have no idea what the general election would look like. You seem very, very certain it will never happen. I don't know why--conventional wisdom has gone completely out the window this cycle. With a weak field surrounding him, a (Republican) nation turning their lonely eyes to Trump doesn't sound so far-fetched to me anymore.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:50
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my bony fealty posted:whoever the netroots Democrats latch onto as "the good one" after they realize John Kasich is a shithead You'd need some sort of evangelical liberal with terrible social policies but good economic and government policy for any kind of push like that. And even then they probably wouldn't pass the ideological minimum needed to be viable at the national scale.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:52
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Alter Ego posted:So all they'd have to do is deny him an outright majority. If they keep his numbers down in larger states (Florida, Texas, California, New York, Pennsylvania, etc), then they might be able to convince smaller states to flip on a second ballot. A real, honest-to-god brokered convention is something that would get unbelievable ratings. It is unlikely but not inconceivable. It'd also throw all the plans for the convention out the window. No time to put the 93 year old Bob Dole on stage for one last round of applause, we need to do ballot 7! What do you mean "We only reserved the convention center until Thursday?" Where the hell will be do ballot 12?
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Nov 20, 2015 17:53
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Joementum posted:I agree that, if Trump were to be the nominee, we have no idea what the general election would look like. Bill and Trump would be clowning on Hillary and hitting on HB10s.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:54
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Peachstapler posted:Justin Bieber has endorsed Donald Trump and instructed his American "Beliebers" to vote for him. So much for Canadians sticking with their own, eh? No doot aboot it.
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Nov 20, 2015 17:57
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The GOP created a monster they can no longer control with Tea Party-type candidates pandering to the fringiest fringe of the conservative base and Trump is them finally reaping the whirlwind in the most glorious manner possible All Hail Trump TRUMP
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Nov 20, 2015 17:58
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Alter Ego posted:You seem very, very certain it will never happen. I don't know why--conventional wisdom has gone completely out the window this cycle. With a weak field surrounding him, a (Republican) nation turning their lonely eyes to Trump doesn't sound so far-fetched to me anymore. While it can feel inevitable I am pretty incredulous he'll actually walk away with it. He's seen as toxic to the brand and the RNC is in damage control mode. People are quoted saying "Trump nom will lose us the Senate." Its an unprecedented disaster to them and they'll do anything to stop it. Maybe they are that poo poo at stumping the Trump, but I can see this talk of getting screwed on a brokered convention happening. Do they think that's worse optics than him getting the nom?
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Nov 20, 2015 17:58
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Speaking of Donald Trump... Another hate rally is about to begin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEgfdz5YDxY It's in Iowa so I hope he calls them all retards again.
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Nov 20, 2015 18:00
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Alter Ego posted:conventional wisdom has gone completely out the window this cycle. I've yet to see compelling evidence that this is true.
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Nov 20, 2015 18:00
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The GOP has to reduce the field to 5 or less by any means possible so they can begin blitzing Trump with negative ads. I don't know if it will work, but that's the only play in their playbook pre-convention and they need the equivalent of Romney in 2012 carpet bombing states with ads against his opponent.
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Nov 20, 2015 18:01
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A lot of Republicans on my social media are seeing what Trump as saying for Muslim registry as tyranny, and taking a wide berth now. Maybe those armband memes did something but its weird. No idea who they're looking at now.
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Nov 20, 2015 18:01
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There's also a bunch of Republican money that's really actually scared of a Trump presidency: it'd be very interesting to see what their response would be were he actually nominated.
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Nov 20, 2015 18:04
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First its Muslims then it's white people with guns MOLON LABE
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Nov 20, 2015 18:05
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Alter Ego posted:You seem very, very certain it will never happen. I don't know why--conventional wisdom has gone completely out the window this cycle. With a weak field surrounding him, a (Republican) nation turning their lonely eyes to Trump doesn't sound so far-fetched to me anymore. Conventional wisdom will have gone out the window if and only if super Tuesday comes around and trump or Carson is decisively in the lead.
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Nov 20, 2015 18:06
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Monkey Fracas posted:The GOP created a monster they can no longer control with Tea Party-type candidates pandering to the fringiest fringe of the conservative base and Trump is them finally reaping the whirlwind in the most glorious manner possible Back in 2010 a wealthy friend of mine who was a staunch business Republican laughed in my face when I told him the tea-party was a golem that would rip the Republican party apart. He's now a democrat.
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Nov 20, 2015 18:08
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Montasque posted:Back in 2010 a wealthy friend of mine who was a staunch business Republican laughed in my face when I told him the tea-party was a golem that would rip the Republican party apart. I like this story, thank you.
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Nov 20, 2015 18:10
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:There's also a bunch of Republican money that's really actually scared of a Trump presidency: it'd be very interesting to see what their response would be were he actually nominated.
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Nov 20, 2015 18:10
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Quote of the morning, "If we don't have a database on every foreigner who comes into this country, we're being negligent." ~ Ben Carson
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Nov 20, 2015 18:13
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CNN debate criteria announced.quote:Candidates must meet one of three criteria in polls conducted between October 29 and December 13 and recognized by CNN: An average of at least 3.5% nationally; at least 4% in Iowa; or at least 4% in New Hampshire.
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Nov 20, 2015 18:15
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