|
Jackson Taus posted:Trump turned his Republican primary favorability numbers around. so hows he going to turn his general favorability around? because at this point, all youre saying is "hes going to win because hes magic"
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:00
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 29, 2024 13:13 |
|
|
Jackson Taus posted:All of the "Trump is the new Goldwater" stuff is counting on Republicans not backing him fully and on the nation understanding that he's actually that crazy and incredibly dishonest. I don't think you understand just how toxic he is to half the Republican base. All of the Republicans I know generally fell lock-step behind the GOP candidate in every election so far even if they didn't particularly like them. I've never seen someone evoke such disgust amongst all the Republicans I know as Trump is. They're all dismayed that he's doing as well as he is. If he wins the nom the Dems will sweep
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:01
|
|
|
Necc0 posted:but all of this was also a decade ago so v my forums lore is platinum edition 
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:01
|
|
v
|
because bear in mind for trump to win he has a couple of options - he does better than romney while democrat turnout stays static or drops, which means tapping the angry white male market even harder than before. theres not much blood left in that stone, though. - he does at least not much worse than romney while democrat turnout drops i find the second option more likely, and betting on having the less bad turnout numbers is not a very inspiring strategy
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:03
|
|
|
paranoid randroid posted:b/c an entire cottage industry sprang up where people could write a book claiming Bill Clinton exploded a baby with dynamite and get it snapped up for bundling in those "Three Great Conservative Books for Five Dollars!" packages that are the bread and butter of the GOP grifter set reminds me of my psychiatrist that wrote a book for the 2012 election where she "psychoanalyzed" Obama and found him to be an evil mindcontrolling kenyan. and the time she tried to get me to buy her book during a medical appointment with her.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:03
|
|
|
So what is the most likely path to Trump's downfall? I'm guessing that Rubio is currently laying low until near the primaries, when Republicans suddenly start paying attention and panic at the fact that Trump is the front runner and begin to consolidate for or against him. Until then, he absolutely cannot get drawn into a fight with Trump, but once it is "Trump" against "credible non-Trump," he and his core of support can't be picked off and isolated as a mere ~12% of the party while 5.5% remain steadfastly excited for Jeb!, 11.3% pretend that Cruz is a real candidate, ~20% loving pray that God himself will intervene and make Carson electable which I literally think is the evangelical plan at the moment, and ~17% of the party dick around supporting clowns even less likely to be the nominee than John Ellis Bush, the Dark Prince of Unelectability. If the shakedown comes out reasonably in his favour, suddenly blustering at Rubio is attacking someone with the support of a substantial portion of the base and doesn't play so well anymore. Rubio proceeds to be yet another empty suite who is ultimately a well-funded trojan horse for looting Social Security and we spend months finding out if Hillary Clinton really is Satan after all. This seems unrealistically optimistic to me, but it seems like the most likely scenario. It's easy to get caught up in the moment, but we aren't even in silly season yet. Silly season is still several literal seasons away.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:05
|
|
|
Hodgepodge posted:So what is the most likely path to Trump's downfall? Most likely is still that people get bored of his shtick sometime in the next month, leading to a combination of lower polls and lower media coverage. Failing that, he'll underperform in the Iowa Caucuses when his supporters don't turn out. He's a paper tiger, so once the numbers start falling, they'll probably plummet.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:07
|
|
|
Hodgepodge posted:So what is the most likely path to Trump's downfall? My guess is that the path to Trump's downfall comes when he's boxed out by Cruz and Rubio while he comes under massive amounts of direct fire from the establishment over the airwaves. At least that's the plan. A huge part of this plan to work is for Talk-Radio, Breitbart, and the rest of the alternative right-wing media turn on Trump, and big up Cruz in his stead. Joementum posted:Most likely is still that people get bored of his shtick sometime in the next month, leading to a combination of lower polls and lower media coverage. This is valid as well. Trump's support is large, but how many of those people will actually show up and vote in a primary? IF they do Trump is dangerous, if they don't, he's OVER. EDIT: I think if he loses NH then he's REALLY over with. Iowa was always a stretch in my opinion. Montasque fucked around with this message at 23:12 on Nov 24, 2015 |
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:10
|
|
|
Hodgepodge posted:So what is the most likely path to Trump's downfall? Plus, the more terrorism there is, the better he will do, as Rubio believes it empowers his campaign
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:12
|
|
|
Epic High Five posted:Plus, the more terrorism there is, the better he will do, as Rubio believes it empowers his campaign Yet it is Trump who got the biggest bump from the Paris attack, and it is Trump who leads the GOP on terror.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:13
|
|
|
Joementum posted:Most likely is still that people get bored of his shtick sometime in the next month, leading to a combination of lower polls and lower media coverage. I can only hope it's that fast. At the moment, it's a countdown to someone getting beaten to death instead of just beaten at a Trump rally.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:13
|
|
|
Montasque posted:Yet it is Trump who got the biggest bump from the Paris attack, and it is Trump who leads the GOP on terror. Oh it's not a smart thing for Rubio to believe on any level. His name isn't tossed around when immigration comes up because happy things are being thought That said, he believes it
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:14
|
|
|
Montasque posted:This is valid as well. Trump's support is large, but how many of those people will actually show up and vote in a primary? IF they do Trump is dangerous, if they don't, he's OVER. Also remember that the Iowa Caucuses aren't a primary, they're an hour+ long party event held on a Tuesday night. You have to show up to your precinct, sit through the speeches of any campaign who has a local precinct captain to nominate them, some other party business, and then cast your vote and wait around while they're counted. That's why the Paulites always target the caucses: they're the only people boring enough to enjoy them.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:15
|
|
|
paranoid randroid posted:so hows he going to turn his general favorability around? because at this point, all youre saying is "hes going to win because hes magic" Yeah, I'm not really saying "here's the plausible path to Trump's victory" so much as "let's not make the same underestimating mistake that the Republican Establishment made a few months ago". A primary-winning Trump would have demonstrated an ability to defy a lot of what we previously told as political gospel. I just don't think we can take for granted that his much predicted crash-and-burn will happen in the General if he manages to go 8 months in the primaries without crashing. Fox Ironic posted:He only has to be like, 25% as misogynistic as Reddit to guarantee resigning himself to Goldwater status. Don't most Republican women already think Hillary's a murderous bitch?
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:16
|
|
|
Hodgepodge posted:I can only hope it's that fast. At the moment, it's a countdown to someone getting beaten to death instead of just beaten at a Trump rally. "Look if those uppity troublemakers didn't want to get dragged into the parking lot (not owned by Trump or Trump, Co btw so not liable!!!) and beaten and kicked until their trachea collapsed and they had a trauma-induced cardiac event then they shouldn't have been exercising their first amendment rights!! I mean did you see that guy, looks like that was the only thing he's been exercising if you get my drift!! Thank you and God bless"
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:17
|
|
|
paranoid randroid posted:because bear in mind for trump to win he has a couple of options The big difference you're missing is that the Democrats don't have the incumbent's advantage this time around. Trump will still lose if he somehow stumbles into the general, of course.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:20
|
|
|
While I don't see an answer to the question "how does Trump win?", I also don't see a clear answer to the question "how does Trump lose"?Necc0 posted:I don't think you understand just how toxic he is to half the Republican base. All of the Republicans I know generally fell lock-step behind the GOP candidate in every election so far even if they didn't particularly like them. I've never seen someone evoke such disgust amongst all the Republicans I know as Trump is. They're all dismayed that he's doing as well as he is. I'm not sure we can count on Republicans not showing up to vote. Remember that a General Election Trump will be opposed by either (a) Hillary Clinton, who Republicans have spent 20 years portraying as somewhere between the Anti-Christ and the Bride of Satan, or (b) a literal unironic socialist. To a Republican, that's a hell of an incentive to hold their nose.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:21
|
|
|
Joementum posted:Most likely is still that people get bored of his shtick sometime in the next month, leading to a combination of lower polls and lower media coverage. wow this post from june sure was wrong
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:23
|
|
|
Jackson Taus posted:While I don't see an answer to the question "how does Trump win?", I also don't see a clear answer to the question "how does Trump lose"? If your baseline assumption is that it's possible for Trump to win the nomination, then everything we know about how Presidential elections work is wrong and nobody can say how the general election will turn out.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:24
|
|
|
Zyla posted:reminds me of my psychiatrist that wrote a book for the 2012 election where she "psychoanalyzed" Obama and found him to be an evil mindcontrolling kenyan.  Jackson Taus posted:Yeah, I'm not really saying "here's the plausible path to Trump's victory" so much as "let's not make the same underestimating mistake that the Republican Establishment made a few months ago". A primary-winning Trump would have demonstrated an ability to defy a lot of what we previously told as political gospel. I just don't think we can take for granted that his much predicted crash-and-burn will happen in the General if he manages to go 8 months in the primaries without crashing. Joementum posted:If your baseline assumption is that it's possible for Trump to win the nomination, then everything we know about how Presidential elections work is wrong and nobody can say how the general election will turn out.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:24
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:The big difference you're missing is that the Democrats don't have the incumbent's advantage this time around. To be honest, I can't imagine the level of peace between Obama and the Clintons unless he offered them something sweet. I would not be shocked if that something was him going full-blast for Hillary in 2016. Or maybe I am mislead by the fantasy of an entire election of Trollbama.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:25
|
|
|
in a surprise twist, everyone abstains except /pol/ posters enflamed by trumps promise to make their demure anime wives real. the lights go out across teh continent, never to be relit in our time.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:26
|
|
|
Joementum posted:Most likely is still that people get bored of his shtick sometime in the next month, leading to a combination of lower polls and lower media coverage. Given the noise he's been making about how he's so totally kicking rear end in New Hampshire I suspect he's got a 2nd place finish anticipated for Iowa and, while it would hurt him badly by damaging his unbeatable-golden-boy image, he could conceivably rebound with a win in the Granite State. That is, of course, if he doesn't use an Iowa loss as his excuse to throw a gigantic temper tantrum and exit the GOP primary, screaming about how they forced him out with all their unfair treatment and by god he's giving a third-party run serious consideration no matter what dumb pledge he signed!
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:29
|
|
|
paranoid randroid posted:in a surprise twist, everyone abstains except /pol/ posters enflamed by trumps promise to make their demure anime wives real. the lights go out across teh continent, never to be relit in our time. "waifu" will become a slur so shameful, it is barely heard even in whispers over the latest of campfires.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:29
|
|
|
Joementum posted:If your baseline assumption is that it's possible for Trump to win the nomination, then everything we know about how Presidential elections work is wrong and nobody can say how the general election will turn out. What we know about primaries might be totally wrong but I don't see how that translates to the general at all. Trump winning would essentially refute the "party decides" theory but that's strictly a primary thing.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:32
|
|
|
Jackson Taus posted:While I don't see an answer to the question "how does Trump win?", I also don't see a clear answer to the question "how does Trump lose"? It's still 2+ months until Iowa and historically the state level polls have less than 50% accuracy this far out. The numbers are fluid until then. I don't think Trump will be even close to leading the polls by the time Iowa comes around due to the incoming campaign against him but that's my opinion. My wishful scenario is for a massive conflict to arise out of the GOP race early next year which pushes Trump to run independent while he still has 20%+ support in the polls.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:34
|
|
|
Montasque posted:Anyways, back to primary chat... Here's a fun graph: the hell is that y axis, lmao
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:43
|
|
|
Mitt Romney posted:It's still 2+ months until Iowa and historically the state level polls have less than 50% accuracy this far out. The numbers are fluid until then. I tend to agree with this, but I am not going to call Trump finished until I see it. He's proven me wrong too many times, even though its silly season, and the writing for his demise is on the wall.(Cruz missile incoming)
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:46
|
|
|
Homework Explainer posted:no, i'd vote psl. i, like you, can't stand most of the posters itf and don't think it's a good use of your time to pick a fight with me over what is an obvious exaggeration of my actions under a trump presidency *nods sagely*
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:47
|
|
|
Joementum posted:Most likely is still that people get bored of his shtick sometime in the next month, leading to a combination of lower polls and lower media coverage. This is completely delusional at this point.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:48
|
|
|
i don't care about trump as much as I do about Cruz. Someone please convince me he could never win.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:50
|
|
|
Full Battle Rattle posted:Watching a bunch of people jump through hoops to explain how the guy who's dominated nearly every national and state poll to this point isn't actually in first is starting to get really creepy He's first place among the 20-30% of primary voters who're paying attention right now.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:50
|
|
|
Zyla posted:i don't care about trump as much as I do about Cruz. Someone please convince me he could never win. he could never win
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:52
|
|
|
Mitt Romney posted:It's still 2+ months until Iowa and historically the state level polls have less than 50% accuracy this far out. The numbers are fluid until then. People are clearly paying attention earlier than ever before so historical poll accuracy is a worthless metric.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:52
|
|
|
Zyla posted:i don't care about trump as much as I do about Cruz. Someone please convince me he could never win. His voice is obnoxious and his face looks like a melted witch. Good enough for a lot of people, tbh
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:53
|
|
|
tsa posted:This is completely delusional at this point. Joe is in no way wrong to point out that Trump's support is broad but fragile. His entire appeal to his base is built on a foundation of being the best at everything, trust me, I'm no loser like [whomever he's insulting today]. He's supremely vulnerable as any stumble or mistake he can't bareface his way out of almost by definition will snowball on him; that this hasn't happened yet is both a testament to his carny bullshit ability and the weakness of the rest of the field.
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:53
|
|
|
ted cruz looks like some guy at a studio somewhere barked into a phone "gimme the platonic ideal of a simpering scumbag toady" and hes who the casting agency sent over
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:55
|
|
|
Zyla posted:reminds me of my psychiatrist that wrote a book for the 2012 election where she "psychoanalyzed" Obama and found him to be an evil mindcontrolling kenyan. What was it like knowing you were the sane one during those appointments?
|
|
#
?
Nov 24, 2015 23:58
|
|
|
paranoid randroid posted:ted cruz looks like some guy at a studio somewhere barked into a phone "gimme the platonic ideal of a simpering scumbag toady" and hes who the casting agency sent over yeah, agreed, but this schtick works incredibly well on my religious relatives and it terrifies me. He presents himself as a harmless little religious dude and many of the republicans I know IRL are in love with the man, even ignoring his batshit policy desires.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 00:00
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 29, 2024 13:13 |
|
|
HappyHippo posted:What was it like knowing you were the sane one during those appointments? It was fascinating, because I'm an attorney and I am well versed in conflicts of interest and it was such a staggering breach of them I could not believe she was really doing what she was doing in trying to sell me her book. also she wasn't even the worst psychiatrist I've ever had. That would be the Egyptian Coptic Christian who encouraged me to get out and date to make myself feel better, and then I had to patently remind him that a major part of the reason I was seeking treatment was PTSD from being raped in college.
|
|
#
?
Nov 25, 2015 00:03
|
|