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Willie Tomg posted:the hell is that y axis, lmao The Richter Scale...
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Nov 25, 2015 00:03
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Mister Macys posted:The Richter Scale... the Andy Richter Scale?
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Nov 25, 2015 00:05
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Belmont. "You steal men's souls! And make them your slaves!"
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Nov 25, 2015 00:06
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I agree that the chances Trump hangs on to go to the primary are slim but until then Trump's easily the leader of the pack so let's all give Joementum as much poo poo about it while we can 
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Nov 25, 2015 00:07
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Zyla posted:yeah, agreed, but this schtick works incredibly well on my religious relatives and it terrifies me. He presents himself as a harmless little religious dude and many of the republicans I know IRL are in love with the man, even ignoring his batshit policy desires. Cheer up. If he ever does win, it'll destroy his career. He'll actually have to participate and not just obstruct his own party for attention and prestige. And his lovely freedom caucus will have no shortage of opportunistic first-term slimy assholes ready to throw him under the bus for the free press.
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Nov 25, 2015 00:08
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Chokes McGee posted:I agree that the chances Trump hangs on to go to the primary are slim but until then Trump's easily the leader of the pack so let's all give Joementum as much poo poo about it while we can Hopefully people do continue posting evidence that I'm wrong and Trump can win. That's the point of a discussion board! Always happy to get more information.
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Nov 25, 2015 00:09
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Do It Once Right posted:Cheer up. If he ever does win, it'll destroy his career. He'll actually have to participate and not just obstruct his own party for attention and prestige. And his lovely freedom caucus will have no shortage of opportunistic first-term slimy assholes ready to throw him under the bus for the free press. unfortunately, announcing that if elected you will refuse to do your job kind of plays with the base lately cruzs problem is that theres a pretty big overlap between his and trumps constituencies, both of them being the theatrical anti-establishment blowhard types. if hes going to supplant the donald, hes going to have to stop riding his dick for long enough to make a move, and the instant he starts encroaching on trump hes going to get put on blast
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Nov 25, 2015 00:13
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ted cruz will not be president
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Nov 25, 2015 00:15
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Joementum posted:Hopefully people do continue posting evidence that I'm wrong and Trump can win. That's the point of a discussion board! Always happy to get more information.
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Nov 25, 2015 00:17
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Joementum posted:Hopefully people do continue posting evidence that I'm wrong and Trump can win. That's the point of a discussion board! Always happy to get more information. 
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Nov 25, 2015 00:19
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Michael Corleone posted:So, if Trump gets the nomination are the GOP backers going to back him up with the $1 billion war chest customary of recent nominees? Or are they going to just give Hillary the election? TBH though, Trump can win this thing with his own money and tell everyone to gently caress themselves, unless he is cheap, like some people say he is. i am getting aroused imagining if they didn't back trump. the "stabbed in the back" narrative writes itself and the gop will become a cannibalized husk
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Nov 25, 2015 00:21
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trumpstoss
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Nov 25, 2015 00:23
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God drat, Trump's having ANOTHER rally in 30 mins? Is any other candidate working as hard as he is in terms of rallies? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ppxvh1aBB9g
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Nov 25, 2015 00:26
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This time IS different, but Trump will not be the nominee. The GOP primary was the EASIEST to predict race in America... That is until this cycle. Why its different this time: - Jeb, the establishment choice, was blown out by his own ineptitude. - Money and Ad buys may have limited effect(Jeb has spent 10s of millions on ads and his numbers are dropping) - Donald Trump brought more attention to the race than its ever seen before. People are actually paying attention! Why Trump will not be the nominee: - Everyone is paying attention and the best he can do is the low 30s. - He's tracking like an Establishment candidate, but has ZERO support from the establishment. This will hurt his ground game. - About to get blown out by a massive all out assault. - Much of his support is rabid, but will they show up? This is the big unknown. - Cruz is still around as a safer option for Trump fans.
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Nov 25, 2015 00:27
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Montasque posted:This time IS different, but Trump will not be the nominee.
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Nov 25, 2015 00:29
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Montasque posted:Why Trump will not be the nominee: i know this is a Source Your Quotes situation but yeah this thing right here is what makes me doubt trumps capacity to close. hes frontloaded his campaign to an incredible degree, has been riding from success to success, and yet for all his unstoppability hes only pulling down a third of the primary electorate. the campaign season isnt going to be all easy dunks on jeb and kasich forever.
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Nov 25, 2015 00:32
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two of those points are contradictory, if money and ads have limited effect then so will the assault also all reports indicate trump has the best ground game of any candidate so far, why do people keep saying he has none. your fourth and fifth points have merit, and i'd conditionally accept one insofar as trump has risen through what his ceiling was thought to be in the past but otherwise it's a valid point Forums Terrorist fucked around with this message at 00:35 on Nov 25, 2015 |
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Nov 25, 2015 00:32
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stephenfry posted:uh source your quotes Source, my rear end. Forums Terrorist posted:two of those points are contradictory, if money and ads have limited effect then so will the assault POSITIVE ad buys have no effect. Negative ad buys will still most likely have an effect. As far as ground game, it helps to have local establishment support as they help to drive out the vote. But you're right, Trump has a very strong ground-game, especially in Iowa. Montasque fucked around with this message at 00:58 on Nov 25, 2015 |
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Nov 25, 2015 00:33
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As a possible explanation for how Trump could win the General (assuming he wins the primaries through a combination of shouting and blackmailing the delegates through a series of Eyes Wide Shut sex parties) is that we have to get rid of one of our assumptions about voters today, which is that voters are more invested in one of the two parties, and that voters switching over will not happen. This doesn't need to be true for Republicans, just Democrats, because nobody is confused about how Hillary could possibly win. The basic idea is that there are certain segments of Democrats who were swayed by Obama in '08, because that was a drat fine campaign. In 2012, they voted again due to psychological pressure, basically the sunk cost fallacy which (among many other factors) makes it much more difficult for incumbents to lose. This would be the first election since 2004 where loose Democrats might feel available to switch sides without feeling like they're betraying their own morals or past opinions. The particular segments I expect this would affect are low-rung union members, mainly because from my understanding the influence of unions has been on the wane lately (since the 80's but eh), and the poorer segments of Democrats who expected to be uplifted out of poverty by Obama but weren't (through no real fault of his, just raised expectations not met can be disappointing in a way that leads to cynicism and bitterness). These segments are also exactly who would be most effected by the populist dogwhistling. So that's how I think it would be possible for Trump to potentially win the general election. If he made it past the primary, which he won't. It'll go to Rubio or Cruz, either of whom will get curbstomped by Hillary until they stop existing out of shame.
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Nov 25, 2015 00:35
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Montasque posted:This time IS different, but Trump will not be the nominee. I agree with most of these points. I think that ad money used more intelligently is still effective, I just don't think Jeb was at all prepared for the 2 month long assault on him by Trump. He got defined way early. Jeb still has around 50m booked for ads in January alone or something similar IIRC. Having ads, surrogates, the party itself and a unified group of right-wing news and talk radio take you on all at once is something that I don't think Trump can handle. He's going to be smothered and unable to respond effectively.
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Nov 25, 2015 00:41
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AlouetteNR posted:As a possible explanation for how Trump could win the General (assuming he wins the primaries through a combination of shouting and blackmailing the delegates through a series of Eyes Wide Shut sex parties) is that we have to get rid of one of our assumptions about voters today, which is that voters are more invested in one of the two parties, and that voters switching over will not happen. I also bet on Rubio for the nom, but if either he or Cruz lose to clinton, they can be conservative talk radio hosts for life if they want. More likely they could have their own chat shows if they care at all. But every weapon that has been used against Trump has been blunted. If anything will force staunch right wing voters to switch off Fox and go on twitter and other newer media, it will be disgust at seeing their golden boy Trump lambasted every which way. This assault could backfire.
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Nov 25, 2015 00:41
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Forums Terrorist posted:two of those points are contradictory, if money and ads have limited effect then so will the assault He said that the complete lack of GOP party support and endorsements will hurt Trump's ground game and he's correct. Trump has a good ground game in select states yes but it would be immensely more effective with some existing infrastructure support.
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Nov 25, 2015 00:42
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AlouetteNR posted:As a possible explanation for how Trump could win the General (assuming he wins the primaries through a combination of shouting and blackmailing the delegates through a series of Eyes Wide Shut sex parties) is that we have to get rid of one of our assumptions about voters today, which is that voters are more invested in one of the two parties, and that voters switching over will not happen. Trump needs to double Romney's numbers with Latinos or he will lose. That's about it from my perspective.
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Nov 25, 2015 00:45
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Mitt Romney posted:He said that the complete lack of GOP party support and endorsements will hurt Trump's ground game and he's correct. Trump has a good ground game in select states yes but it would be immensely more effective with some existing infrastructure support. I don't think people understand the importance of establishment support. If the nuts and bolts operators, and the money men who control the party machine hate your guts you will have a VERY hard time winning the nomination for the machine they represent. It cannot be understated how much the GOP loathes Trump. They feel(and are most likely correct) that if he is the nominee you will see a down ticket catastrophe. For the GOP their front runner, Donald Trump, is an existential threat. He must be destroyed to save the party.
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Nov 25, 2015 00:56
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Jewel Repetition posted:He's first place among the 20-30% of primary voters who're paying attention right now. If it were literally any other candidate nobody would be saying poo poo, people in the dem thread complain about the perils of un-skewing but the reality is this place is loving shameless EDIT: ^^^ How does Donald Trump's candidacy create a downticket disaster? Won't voters still vote Republican on the downticket?
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Nov 25, 2015 00:59
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ted cruz is every character played by character-actor kurt fuller brought to life
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Nov 25, 2015 00:59
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New anti-Trump ad from Kasich: https://youtu.be/qCQhBYEMRQI First they came for the Muslims...
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Nov 25, 2015 00:59
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paranoid randroid posted:i know this is a Source Your Quotes situation but yeah this thing right here is what makes me doubt trumps capacity to close. hes frontloaded his campaign to an incredible degree, has been riding from success to success, and yet for all his unstoppability hes only pulling down a third of the primary electorate. the campaign season isnt going to be all easy dunks on jeb and kasich forever. True, but Jeb! seems to be handling Trump's slack- by repeatedly dunking on himself. 
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Nov 25, 2015 01:01
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That 67% unfavorable rating. Look out white house here comes Trump.
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Nov 25, 2015 01:02
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paranoid randroid posted:i know this is a Source Your Quotes situation but yeah this thing right here is what makes me doubt trumps capacity to close. hes frontloaded his campaign to an incredible degree, has been riding from success to success, and yet for all his unstoppability hes only pulling down a third of the primary electorate. the campaign season isnt going to be all easy dunks on jeb and kasich forever. I'm going to say that as candidates start to fall off, he'll pick up even more. He's the ultimate spite vote. blablablabla posted:That 67% unfavorable rating. Look out white house here comes Trump. Counterpoint: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating
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Nov 25, 2015 01:02
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Trump Rally in Myrtle Beach - The most TRUMP of beaches: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ppxvh1aBB9g Weltlich posted:I'm going to say that as candidates start to fall off, he'll pick up even more. He's the ultimate spite vote. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating Yeah...
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Nov 25, 2015 01:04
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Montasque posted:Trump Rally in Myrtle Beach - The most TRUMP of beaches: Discarded needles and crumpled Coors light cans as far as the eye can see. This is trump country, baby.
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Nov 25, 2015 01:07
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Full Battle Rattle posted:EDIT: ^^^ How does Donald Trump's candidacy create a downticket disaster? Won't voters still vote Republican on the downticket? Like I think the worry isn't so much the hard core, who would vote for Adolf Hitler and his running mate, Satan, if it were necessary in order to beat Hillary Clinton. The concern is the people who are either in that camp but not very motivated to go bother to vote, or who are not fully commited to the Party, or some mixture of the two. In addition, Trump would probably be a great goad for Democrats, like Palin but worse.
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Nov 25, 2015 01:08
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Full Battle Rattle posted:If it were literally any other candidate nobody would be saying poo poo, people in the dem thread complain about the perils of un-skewing but the reality is this place is loving shameless Very few people in this scenario are gonna go out and vote just for the down ticket candidates. If they're turned off by Trump most of them are staying home. Not that I blame them, I'd do the same.
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Nov 25, 2015 01:11
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The Trump rally's starting now.
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Nov 25, 2015 01:12
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Full Battle Rattle posted:If it were literally any other candidate nobody would be saying poo poo, people in the dem thread complain about the perils of un-skewing but the reality is this place is loving shameless The GOP fears that Trump will depress voter turnout. Rush disagrees with them and thinks Trump would energize Republicans and convert many working class whites who voted Obama.
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Nov 25, 2015 01:12
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Full Battle Rattle posted:If it were literally any other candidate nobody would be saying poo poo, people in the dem thread complain about the perils of un-skewing but the reality is this place is loving shameless if it were any other candidate it would still be a regular primary, to be fair
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Nov 25, 2015 01:16
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God drat that's a good looking family.
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Nov 25, 2015 01:16
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Montasque posted:Trump Rally in Myrtle Beach - The most TRUMP of beaches: 
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Nov 25, 2015 01:16
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Backing you up on that one duuuuuude.
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Nov 25, 2015 01:18
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