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Amused to Death posted:How many seats are needed to put forward constitutional changes? Exactly 112. 
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Dec 7, 2015 19:25
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beer_war posted:The MUD is saying they won at least 112 seats (i.e. a 2/3rd majority) and could win as many as 116. That's an absolutely devastating loss for the PSUV. None of this is surprising to anyone living here btw People might be dumb sometimes but we all get hungry and we all get sick and finding food and medicine in this country is an odyssey, everyone knows PSUV needs to go.
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Dec 7, 2015 19:27
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beer_war posted:Exactly 112.  So Maduro aside from being an incompentant buffoon is also essentially now politically neuteured? Also the MUD is an alliance of numerous parties, do they actually get along? Will they be a unified force as the governing party in the assembly?
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Dec 7, 2015 19:32
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The magnitude of this victrory is unprecedented not only because of the raw numbers (as beer_war said, the MUD is heading to a super majority), but also by how the opposition easily took bastions of the PSUV. I think Labradoodle pointed out that the MUD swept Barinas state, which is where Chavez is from. They got just over 75% of the popular vote in that state. The opposition also won in the 23 de Enero and Catia barrios of Caracas (in fact, they appear to have swept Caracas). If you told me yesterday that they'd win either of those two I would have said you were nuts. The opposition also got over 50% of the vote in the voting center where Chavez used to cast his ballot. The MINUNIDAD debacle appears to have been pathetically ineffective, with only a fraction of a percentage point going to the party. The MUD did an excellent job at informing people of the ruse. Amused to Death posted:
The way the system is designed to work is so that the powers check each other, so he's not necessarily neutered. It is certainly a huge deal, though, that he doesn't have a legislative branch that is ready to rubber stamp whatever bone headed thing he comes up with. If the MUD does get at least 112 seats, they'll be able to reshape the supreme court and the CNE. That alone is a victory on a level that is hard to describe. Like someone pointed out, the MUD appears to be getting along really well. Listening to their press conferences, I get the sense that they really understand the mandate they've received and they're fully aware that they're in the spotlight. They know people voted for them expecting results. I cannot imagine them giving in to petty rivalries now and splitting up into smaller groups. It's going to be interesting what happens when Leopoldo Lopez and the other political prisoners get released. Lopez is suddenly in the running for the presidential election, and I'm sure some in the MUD are looking ahead to that now.
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Dec 7, 2015 19:49
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Honestly, I have no idea what's going to happen next. One thing to keep in mind though is that the PSUV still controls the courts (which have proven themselves extremely skillful at "creative" interpretation of the law), the electoral council and most of the national media. Also, the outgoing National Assembly still has about a month to grant Maduro "emergency powers" or some such. The PSUV has been dealt a heavy blow for sure, I just don't know if it's a knockout yet. beer_war fucked around with this message at 19:57 on Dec 7, 2015 |
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Dec 7, 2015 19:51
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ABC.ES says the military forced Maduro and Co to accept the loss and that they were trying to fix the results to 82-84 in favor of the government. Fact is the vote % won by the opposition was probably closer to 80%
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Dec 7, 2015 20:08
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 Well that was unexpected. I was sure the military was firmly in Maduro's pocket.Where is Borneo Jimmy? Has he hung himself with a wilted leek?
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Dec 7, 2015 20:39
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beer_war posted:Honestly, I have no idea what's going to happen next. The ultimate question is also what type of policy has the MUD planned now they have a super majority and at least controls the legislative process and can override a veto? The question of course is price controls and the bolivar itself. Also, there is the white elephant in the room, that the country is nearly broke and oil prices at nearing $40 a barrel. I believe in many ways Venezuela was limping along previously via loans from China in exchange for cheap oil. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 21:01 on Dec 7, 2015 |
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Dec 7, 2015 20:57
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Frankly, I'd suggest immediately removing all price controls, de-nationalizing all the poo poo Maduro went after, and telling China to suck dick on the loans while applying for money from someone else. The IMF mabye?
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Dec 7, 2015 21:03
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-Troika- posted:Frankly, I'd suggest immediately removing all price controls, de-nationalizing all the poo poo Maduro went after, and telling China to suck dick on the loans while applying for money from someone else. The IMF mabye? I am not sure Venezuela can get out of loans from China this point, and yeah they will probably have to ask the IMF for assistance. It is going to be quite interesting. Lifting price controls will likely help fix the supply situation as producers now have an incentive to produce, I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't a price shock for the working class. On one hand goods will return to the stores, on the other hand they will be at market prices (which is what 10-20 times the cost at this point). I wonder if MUD will touch fuel prices as well. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 21:13 on Dec 7, 2015 |
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Dec 7, 2015 21:08
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Would it be suicide to remove, or at least reduce, the fuel subsidies?
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Dec 7, 2015 21:52
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With oil prices crashing due to OPEC production Venezuela's current accounts are in deep poo poo. With the price of oil so low, it makes removing the fuel subsidy more palatable, but it also makes keeping it in place more affordable. The real issue is going to be when they audit the books. If the courts get made into real agents of justice, I think a lot of PSUV leadership is going to jail for fraud and embezzlement - or at least tried for it, and possibly then have the cases dropped for the cause of national unity. Either way, the crisis is not over, not at USD $43 a barrel oil.
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Dec 7, 2015 21:55
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Ardennes posted:I wonder if MUD will touch fuel prices as well. Well, given I live in times where most people in Valencia want to drive their cars the least possible out of fear of wearing them off (Fixing them is a months-long nightmare with Spare Parts hunting, dealing with Mechanics' costs, Insurance inflations), I could see them willing to accept a rise in the fuel prices as long as the Public Transportation sectors get to keep the fuel discount for a bit longer. As a reminder, the main reason there's opposition towards touching the fuel prices is because Bus Drivers would use it as a justification to triple the cost of fare even though fuel is among the smallest of their expenses; and that's something the low-income population can't afford an increase of in their daily budgets, specially when they currently have to travel nomadically throughout the City's markets to guarantee their families being properly fed.
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Dec 7, 2015 22:09
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It is esential that the opposition maintain the mercal system open for now. There are ways to fix the scarcity issue without getting rid of the Mercal. They prices need to shift subsidies directly to the point of production though. Keep the Mercal open but stop the price fixing. Raise oil prices and release political prisoners these should be some of the first steps. The oil industry needs to remain nacionalized or else there is no way for them to keep the government afloat. The next big step will be to get rid of the fixed exchange rate. This is where the Mercal will be crucial because the price shock caused by that move will be massive and the majority of the population will be unable to afford food. I think a potential realistic option would be adopting a third party currency or implementing a new one and completely doing away with the old one. I would think the Brazilian Real, Colombian Peso, or US Dollar would be good options. The peso or real would be good options because Venezuela is going to have to work hard on importing food and their biggest bargaining chips are their fertilization chemicals which the6 export heavily to Colombia. Colombia is one of the biggest net exporters of produce in the region as are Brasil and both countries will be very important trading partners if Venezuela seeks to end the shortages of food in the region. Crime also needs to be focused on from the get go. The crime rate is extremelu high and the government needs to invest heavily in solving this issue. Theres a lot of difficulty the face but it can be done CalmDownMate fucked around with this message at 22:32 on Dec 7, 2015 |
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Dec 7, 2015 22:18
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Ganamos huevones ! Ahora pa'lante no joda !!
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Dec 7, 2015 23:32
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CalmDownMate posted:ABC.ES says the military forced Maduro and Co to accept the loss and that they were trying to fix the results to 82-84 in favor of the government. Link? I'm currently at the website and can't find anything that mentions this.
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Dec 7, 2015 23:46
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punk rebel ecks posted:Link? http://www.abc.es/internacional/abci-alto-mando-militar-fuerza-aceptar-gran-victoria-oposicion-venezuela-201512070619_noticia.html
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Dec 8, 2015 00:26
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I heard Capriles talk in a press conference earlier today and one of the things he said was that it was time to end "giving away oil for free". Although I didn't hear him explicitly say it, I think he was referring to Petrocaribe. One of the oddities of this election is that, as it stands right now, 7.8% of votes cast were null. Below is a partial list of states with their corresponding number of null votes:
The article I've quoted doesn't state it, but it looks like what happened is that if you pressed the screen more than once while casting your vote, your vote would become null. If it is true and that is why the majority of null votes occurred, there's no reason to believe that it affected one side more than the other. It does say a hell of a lot about "the best electoral system in the world", though. Also, the CNE has not made any kind of announcement since last night. We're 48 hours past the time the polls closed and we still don't know all the results.
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Dec 8, 2015 01:20
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With the far right now in control of the assembly, it will be interesting to see what their economic policies will be, given that privatization of public services and ending the housing missions that have provided homes for the homeless are on their agenda, there most definitely will be push-back.
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Dec 8, 2015 01:45
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Borneo Jimmy posted:With the far right now in control of the assembly, it will be interesting to see what their economic policies will be, given that privatization of public services and ending the housing missions that have provided homes for the homeless are on their agenda, there most definitely will be push-back. Also, who will pay you to post?
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Dec 8, 2015 01:49
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Borneo Jimmy posted:With the far right now in control of the assembly, it will be interesting to see what their economic policies will be, given that privatization of public services and ending the housing missions that have provided homes for the homeless are on their agenda, there most definitely will be push-back. The opposition members of the assembly have, for years now, pushed for a bill that would give legal ownership deeds of their Mision Vivienda houses to the people living in them. A bill which the government has blocked time and time again. Again, the kind of stuff you would know if you ever read anything about Venezuelan Politics beyond Venezuelan Analysis.
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Dec 8, 2015 01:51
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Labradoodle posted:The opposition members of the assembly have, for years now, pushed for a bill that would give legal ownership deeds of their Mision Vivienda houses to the people living in them. A bill which the government has blocked time and time again. Just to give a bit more context on this: the reasoning behind giving people apartments in a subsidized housing building but not giving them deeds has to do with leverage. Imagine the government has just set you up in your very own apartment. It even comes with appliances. Nice, right? You don't have a deed to the apartment, but why would you need one anyway? Well, come election time, some nice men with the PSUV show up and remind you to go vote for the local party candidate, and also remind you that you don't have a legal right to your nice apartment and your nice appliances and wouldn't it be a shame if you suddenly found yourself out on the street again. The opposition has been tying to get people deeds to their Mission Vivienda homes partly to avoid this kind of blackmail. As Labradoodle pointed out, the government has never gone along with the idea for obvious reasons.
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Dec 8, 2015 02:05
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CalmDownMate posted:http://www.abc.es/internacional/abci-alto-mando-militar-fuerza-aceptar-gran-victoria-oposicion-venezuela-201512070619_noticia.html Interesting. Though that is the only site that seems to be reporting that matter.
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Dec 8, 2015 02:10
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Public Housing construction is common in Latin America. Mexico has built millions of them. The Colombians have built thousands upon thousands of them. That stuff is constant no matter where you go.
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Dec 8, 2015 02:12
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Cicero posted:Would it be suicide to remove, or at least reduce, the fuel subsidies? Historically, proposing doing that has threatened to bring down governments. However, it's also something that really needs to be done, now more than ever. Borneo Jimmy posted:With the far right now in control of the assembly, it will be interesting to see what their economic policies will be, given that privatization of public services and ending the housing missions that have provided homes for the homeless are on their agenda, there most definitely will be push-back. I am glad that the program of "tear down the means of production to build lovely houses" will be canceled.
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Dec 8, 2015 02:16
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-Troika- posted:
Writing terrible op-eds for Alternet, perhaps? I'm sure to some people the mere existence of market economies is "economic sabotage", because people will buy things in Venezuela on the cheap and then scalp them for market prices in Colombia. Even if it's illegal in Colombia (and it probably is because of import controls, regulations, duties, and taxes being evaded) people will still get away with it, and they're not going to just pass up the opportunity to make easy money out of compassion for fellow Venezuelans. Price controls are not actually a substitute for a functional economy. Not that I'm really expecting the MUD to save Venezuela--the country is so thoroughly hosed I doubt anyone really can. Woolie Wool fucked around with this message at 02:26 on Dec 8, 2015 |
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Dec 8, 2015 02:18
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punk rebel ecks posted:Interesting. Though that is the only site that seems to be reporting that matter. I can't speak for the rest of their coverage, but ABC.es is very colorful when it comes to Venezuela. For example now they're claiming that the opposition ran a complex operation to block the signals of a couple thousand centers in order to prevent Chavistas from transmitting results (http://www.abc.es/internacional/abci-chavismo-quiso-romper-proceso-electoral-y-posponerlo-201512080101_noticia.html), what the gently caress? There's plenty of insane poo poo going on in Venezuela, but ABC.es is as serious a source as Venezuelan Analysis.
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Dec 8, 2015 02:28
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A bit more on the myth that the PSUV cares about the poor on any kind of humanitarian level: There's an influential pro-PSUV website called aporrea.org that published an article today called "iMaduro y Cabello Deben Renunciar!" [Maduro and Cabello Should Resign]. Here's a bit of it: quote:Maduro and his "governing team" cannot continue to talk about the existence of "social" policies because they give away homes, taxis, home electronics, kitchens, refrigerators and even food, because this creates a client relationship between the government and the people - some of them not out of necessity, but [as a] partisan stipend. This is an aberration. This is why it is necessary for this new National Assembly to prohibit through law donations during electoral campaigns. They might call us "exclusionary" - no! It's simple. Citizens who receive resources paid for by state funds cannot be used as political tools. Again, this is a pro-PSUV website in Venezuela 1) calling for Maduro and Cabello's resignation, and 2) condemning the widely-known practice of exploiting the country's most vulnerable citizens for political gain. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 02:37 on Dec 8, 2015 |
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Dec 8, 2015 02:34
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So are there official numbers about the election results published now that a day has passed? I just looked over a few news sources and can't find anything beyond MUD having (at least) 99 seats which we knew last night.
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Dec 8, 2015 03:49
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Rahu posted:So are there official numbers about the election results published now that a day has passed? I just looked over a few news sources and can't find anything beyond MUD having (at least) 99 seats which we knew last night. Nope. The much-touted Venezuelan election system is never swift, but I think this is a new record. We pretty much know the results by now, the opposition passed the 2/3rds threshold, but the electoral council refuses to release the information publicly because the government doesn't want to look bad. At this point it's pretty much like they're throwing a tantrum.
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Dec 8, 2015 04:04
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Rahu posted:So are there official numbers about the election results published now that a day has passed? I just looked over a few news sources and can't find anything beyond MUD having (at least) 99 seats which we knew last night. Latest numbers on CNE website say 110 seats for the MUD (107 regular seats plus the 3 indigenous representatives), 55 for PSUV and 2 still to be announced: http://www.cne.gob.ve/resultado_asamblea2015/r/0/reg_000000.html The MUD is saying they won those last two seats, so it would be 112 seats exactly. http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/151208/mesa-de-la-unidad-alcanza-112-diputados-en-la-asamblea-nacional
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Dec 8, 2015 07:56
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Skimmed over the article and found this canard: quote:The State Department later admitted, “it is clear that NED [National Endowment for Democracy], Department of Defense (DOD), and other U.S. assistance programs provided training, institution building, and other support to individuals and organizations understood to be actively involved in the brief ouster of the Chávez government.” What the linked report actually says: https://oig.state.gov/system/files/13682.pdf posted:OIG found nothing to indicate that U.S. assistance programs in Venezuela, Of course shitheads like that guy and Mark Weisbrot only ever include the truncated quote.
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Dec 8, 2015 08:12
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To what extent is it possible to (1) reform the judiciary or (2)strongly influence permanent staff appointments in state institutions. Given traditionally strong Latin American executives, which is even more powerful in Venezuela, does control of the legislature (obviously more at the 2/3 level than the 3/5 level) translate into an effective means to generate change? For example, over the last year, and particularly in the last two months, the Kirchnerist government in Argentina has designated thousands upon thousands of public-seector permanent staff, which are extremely difficult to get rid of. In the vast majority of cases, these are people who's qualifications do not extend further than membership in La Camporá, and whose purpose are just to throw a spanner in the work of the new administration. Also ABC is barely qualified to be used as toilet paper.
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Dec 8, 2015 08:42
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beer_war posted:Latest numbers on CNE website say 110 seats for the MUD (107 regular seats plus the 3 indigenous representatives), 55 for PSUV and 2 still to be announced: Doesn't that basically mean that PSUV is going to try all out on pressuring the CNE to split it 1-1 to deny them 112?
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Dec 8, 2015 09:26
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Slate (which is presumably as naive about Venezuela as any other left-leaning English media but did not sugarcoat PSUV at all in this piece) suggested there may be a presidential recall next year. Thoughts?
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Dec 8, 2015 12:54
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M. Discordia posted:Slate (which is presumably as naive about Venezuela as any other left-leaning English media but did not sugarcoat PSUV at all in this piece) suggested there may be a presidential recall next year. Thoughts? There's a provision in Chavez' constitution for a referendum. Yes/No vote against the question "Should we call for presidential elections?". This referendum can be called after the first half of a President's period. Maduro first half ends with 2015. There will be a vote and I seriously doubt he's going to keep the seat.
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Dec 8, 2015 13:38
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I'm sure his bus seat is still warm and waiting for him.
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Dec 8, 2015 14:53
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Apparently the dispute is down to one last seat, circuit three of Aragua. Where the MUD won by 300 votes according to the final tallies. They're waiting for the paper tallies of a few tables to see if that will affect the results, which they shouldn't, since they're all added electronically. This last seat is crucial because it will give the MUD a 2/3rds supermajority, which is what the government obviously wants to avoid. For those tuning into these elections, this is why there's always rumors of fraud in Venezuela and we were so vocal about closing voting centers when the law called for it: the electoral council is so obviously beholden to the government party they might as well just go on air right now and say "Hey guys, calm down. We'll give the final results once the party's satisfied with them".
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Dec 8, 2015 15:17
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Hugoon Chavez posted:There's a provision in Chavez' constitution for a referendum. Yes/No vote against the question "Should we call for presidential elections?". It's amazing how much Chavez's constitution hosed his own party. Mozi posted:I'm sure his bus seat is still warm and waiting for him. I never got the bus driver criticism. He hasn't been a bus driver in thirty years. That's the last thing I'd criticize the PSUV on. Labradoodle posted:Apparently the dispute is down to one last seat, circuit three of Aragua. Where the MUD won by 300 votes according to the final tallies. Leading by 1 seat seems awfully suspicious indeed. punk rebel ecks fucked around with this message at 17:30 on Dec 8, 2015 |
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Dec 8, 2015 17:16
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El Nacional is reporting that the CNE has ruled that the last district (Circuito 3 in Aragua) was won by the MUD by a margin of 83 votes. The CNE has yet to make the announcement publicly, but the newspaper says that the announcement is expected later today. This means that the MUD has won 112 seats and a 2/3 majority. It is the best possible result the MUD could have expected, since it gives them full control over all of the powers the legislature wields.
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Dec 8, 2015 18:40
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