|
Fuschia tude posted:How did that happen, anyway? All recent elections pointed to election dates moonwalking further into the past with every cycle, so why did Iowa suddenly agree to shift to February? They wanted to bunch them all closer together to help Jeb win the nomination...
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 02:54
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 20:24 |
|
|
How dumb do you have to be to feel assuaged by numbers when your candidate is making the "I thought gwb was the smart one" joke into a groaning cliché? Like when "your candidate sucks rear end" has reached "I think ben carson is prescribing himself downers" levels of saturation you should be pulling out fast as you can. Even if Trump died overnight Jeb has like 4 other major albatrosses he has no answer for. Give it the gently caress up, the entire country doesn't want you or your loving family doing anything of importance anymore. Introducing yourself didn't help. Doing it again won't either.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 02:54
|
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:its an internet poll The zogby results aren't terribly out of line with what the more methodologically-sound internet surveys have found. Trump just does better online generally. No one is sure why.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 02:55
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:The zogby results aren't terribly out of line with what the more methodologically-sound internet surveys have found. Trump just does better online generally. No one is sure why. that the numbers aren't bizarre doesn't make the poll better, it could mean they were lucky or it could mean they manipulated their weightings to get a reasonable average i dont care enough to look into the details, it's clear enough i think that 200something responses aren't gonna tell you poo poo
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 02:59
|
|
|
Joementum posted:Angela Merkel is the TIME Person of the Year. Trump is second runner up. I'm sure he'll have some nice, appropriate things to say about Angela. No, Bernie is the TIME Person of the Year. 
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 03:01
|
|
|
Fuschia tude posted:How did that happen, anyway? All recent elections pointed to election dates moonwalking further into the past with every cycle, so why did Iowa suddenly agree to shift to February? New Hampshire has a law that it has to be the first primary, at least a week before any other primary, and no more than 8 days after Iowa. In 04, 08, and 12 states tried to move into NH's window, leading it to jump back further and further. This cycle the RNC imposed a penalty that any state besides IA, NH, SC, or NV that went before March 1 would be reduced to 16 delegates, and places like FL (which had tried to muscle in on early dates before) didn't relish getting the same delegate weight as Delaware. Also, they allowed any state going March 15th or later to be Winner Take All, a very attractive thing that encouraged many states to be later.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 03:02
|
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:i dont care enough to look into the details, it's clear enough i think that 200something responses aren't gonna tell you poo poo It's not actually clear. Behold! the magic of statistics. What you think of as a small sample size can be totally sufficient. The issue here would be the selection bias of online polling, and a lovely/lack of an accurate voter screen, not the overall sample size. Cross tabs could be less meaningful though.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 03:07
|
|
|
yeah i shouldnt have said it that way. i feel like the smaller the sample size, the greater the influence of factors outside the purview of probability theory, especially the convenience bias of zogby presumably grabbing the first people it could find to make The First Poll After The Thing Happened i sorta feel like the problems with the random sample assumption make the margin of error calculation pointless but i guess if i wanna talk poo poo i should run some stats or at least google for a few minutes and i dont wanna do that so ill shut up
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 03:18
|
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:its an internet poll Uh, a friend of mine that browses that filthy Chinese cartoon anime board told me they were in fact voting in polls such as this.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 03:24
|
|
|
AARP LARPer fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Jan 22, 2016 |
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 03:39
|
|
|
Michael Corleone posted:Uh, a friend of mine that browses that filthy Chinese cartoon anime board told me they were in fact voting in polls such as this. that makes sense. well they made it on tv guess theyre awesome
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 03:42
|
|
|
Intel&Sebastian posted:How dumb do you have to be to feel assuaged by numbers when your candidate is making the "I thought gwb was the smart one" joke into a groaning cliché? But everyone* who meets Jeb loves him! *includes only family members, family friends, employees, and lobbyists
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 03:43
|
|
|
Do Not Resuscitate posted:I think Jeb! needs a second campaign reset which will therefore require a third campaign slogan. Coming On Jeb! Jeb's Taking it Deep!
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 03:46
|
|
|
Jeb: half the man my dad was or is
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 03:47
|
|
|
Rocks posted:Jeb's Polishing It Off! hahah
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 03:55
|
|
|
Jeb's getting ready for that Big Bush Comeback! #JebBBC
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 03:56
|
|
|
I thought way more than 2% of black people (though not necessarily African-American) in the US were Muslim... that's pretty hosed up. EDIT: What loving halfwit decided that African-American, which I agree is a valid term to specifically describe black people in the US who are the descendants of slaves brought to America, should simply replace "black" altogether? It's such a stupid term as it's currently used, and it's torture to watch the American media trying to figure out what to call a black person who isn't American, such as Lewis Hamilton, or (to use a not-famous example) my Trinidadian friend who lives in Houston? PT6A fucked around with this message at 04:13 on Dec 10, 2015 |
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:07
|
|
|
question about the convention: do you need an absolute majority of delegates to win or just a plurality? because at this point i see Cruz winning unless the anti-establishment delegates are split between him and Trump, with some refusing to vote for Trump because he's a Nazi, and Rubio ekes out a slim plurality
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:07
|
|
|
A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Jeb's getting ready for that Big Bush Comeback! Another bitter clinger to my God Grits and Guns, ready for the Big Bush Comeback #GGG4BBC
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:10
|
|
|
I want this pin and another like it, but with Trump face and "In your guts, you know he's nuts".
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:11
|
|
|
PT6A posted:I thought way more than 2% of black people (though not necessarily African-American) in the US were Muslim... that's pretty hosed up. It was an internet poll with results displayed live, and presumably demographics were self reported There's no way /pol/ had anything to do with those results
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:19
|
|
|
LOL. CNN and Don Lemon are making Trump look GOOOOOOOOOD. These hilarious 'tards keep slamming the door on their own dicks. "We've got him NOW!!!" ~5 minutes later~ "WTF just happened???" (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:22
|
|
|
Do Not Resuscitate posted:I think Jeb! needs a second campaign reset which will therefore require a third campaign slogan. Exclamation Points Will Continue Until Polls Improve
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:24
|
|
|
icantfindaname posted:question about the convention: do you need an absolute majority of delegates to win or just a plurality? because at this point i see Cruz winning unless the anti-establishment delegates are split between him and Trump, with some refusing to vote for Trump because he's a Nazi, and Rubio ekes out a slim plurality pretty sure it's a majority, but you just keep doing ballots until somebody gets a majority. so if a majority of the delegates aren't pledged to one candidate before the first ballot the unpledged delegates come into play, and the different state rules about how many ballots it takes for a delegate to go independent determine things as well, and all kinds of smoke-filled room politicking happens and we all have fun
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:25
|
|
|
I really want to buy a Jeb! flask.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:25
|
|
|
A GIANT PARSNIP posted:But everyone* who meets Jeb loves him! FTFY
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:29
|
|
|
Jeb lives in a sort of Truman Show world, where everyone around him seems to live him and have drunk the cool aid. Nthing the hope that there's a camera crew with him capturing his response to the delusion shattering.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:37
|
|
|
Shakugan posted:Jeb lives in a sort of Truman Show world, where everyone around him seems to live him and have drunk the cool aid. Nthing the hope that there's a camera crew with him capturing his response to the delusion shattering. I'm banking more on a visible wave of relief as he realizes he won't have to keep his farce going any longer.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:39
|
|
|
Lord of Pie posted:He's fine, just look at that.... healthy smile poo poo he really does frown when he's smiling, doesn't he? What a poor, sad dude ole' Jeb! has become. 
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:39
|
|
|
Across the pond the British Empire stretches its arms and prepares for a fresh new daquote:A parliamentary petition calling for Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump to be barred from entering the UK has gathered more than 329,000 names. MPs will be required to consider debating it. The petition went on Parliament's e-petition website on Tuesday.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:41
|
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:pretty sure it's a majority, but you just keep doing ballots until somebody gets a majority. so if a majority of the delegates aren't pledged to one candidate before the first ballot the unpledged delegates come into play, and the different state rules about how many ballots it takes for a delegate to go independent determine things as well, and all kinds of smoke-filled room politicking happens and we all have fun in that case IMO Cruz wins, no amount of backroom dealing can save Rubio from having only 25% of the popular vote. people who say he's going to float up in the polls any day now are delusional
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:43
|
|
|
PT6A posted:I thought way more than 2% of black people (though not necessarily African-American) in the US were Muslim... that's pretty hosed up. An inverse example is our president, who isn't black, but is an African American since he was born in Kenya.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:54
|
|
|
Shakugan posted:It's not actually clear. Behold! the magic of statistics. What you think of as a small sample size can be totally sufficient. The issue here would be the selection bias of online polling, and a lovely/lack of an accurate voter screen, not the overall sample size. Cross tabs could be less meaningful though. Under 300 voters isn't really sufficient even if you handwave the other problems. That's still a margin of error of ~6%, which is high enough that the results are basically worthless. A good poll has about 600 (4% MOE), a really good poll has 900-1000 (3% MOE).
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:56
|
|
|
Thump! posted:poo poo he really does frown when he's smiling, doesn't he? Jeb! Only half the man my dad was.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:56
|
|
|
Ivor Biggun posted:Jeb! Only half the man my dad was.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:58
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:The zogby results aren't terribly out of line with what the more methodologically-sound internet surveys have found. Trump just does better online generally. No one is sure why. If I had to guess it's something similar to the Bradley effect where his supporters may not want to seem racist to somebody they are speaking too. In contrast, they are more anonymous online and can actually give their view. In other words, Trumps could be even stronger than his polling suggests.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:59
|
|
|
oystertoadfish posted:pretty sure it's a majority, but you just keep doing ballots until somebody gets a majority. so if a majority of the delegates aren't pledged to one candidate before the first ballot the unpledged delegates come into play, and the different state rules about how many ballots it takes for a delegate to go independent determine things as well, and all kinds of smoke-filled room politicking happens and we all have fun If I'm not mistaken, unpledged delegates are allowed to vote whoever they want in the first round even if a clear majority exists for one candidate, though their choice don't mean jack poo poo at that point.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:59
|
|
|
Peachstapler posted:That means if HW's VP was Dan Quayle, Jeb!'s VP would be... Dan Quayle Gotta get the whole band back together e: Jesus he's 68, time flies Lord of Pie fucked around with this message at 05:02 on Dec 10, 2015 |
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 04:59
|
|
|
Patter Song posted:Under 300 voters isn't really sufficient even if you handwave the other problems. That's still a margin of error of ~6%, which is high enough that the results are basically worthless. A good poll has about 600 (4% MOE), a really good poll has 900-1000 (3% MOE). The thing is, even with the 6% margin of error, the lowest actual support Trump could have is 32% opposed to Carson's highest possible 19% (or Rube's 18%).
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 05:01
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 20:24 |
|
|
Peachstapler posted:That means if HW's VP was Dan Quayle, Jeb!'s VP would be... Scott Walker.
|
|
#
?
Dec 10, 2015 05:02
|
|
