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Logikv9 posted:I really want to buy a Jeb! flask. I'm surprised there aren't any chinese knockoffs for stuff like that. I checked aliexpress, dx, and ebay, and there's barely anything. I did find this: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Jeb-Cant-Fi...MScH5F_cN6GHJtQ
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Dec 10, 2015 05:02
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Vox Nihili posted:The zogby results aren't terribly out of line with what the more methodologically-sound internet surveys have found. Trump just does better online generally. No one is sure why. Right populist candidates do significantly better in internet polling [and it tends to actually translate to the voting booth] in european countries versus live surveys. Whether or not that will translate to the US who knows. There's an Atlantic article I can be assed to find that talked about it today.
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Dec 10, 2015 05:03
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Peachstapler posted:That means if HW's VP was Dan Quayle, Jeb!'s VP would be... 43 could only be president for two terms but there's nothing stopping him being Jeb!'s vice president. Just sayin'
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Dec 10, 2015 05:05
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Ivor Biggun posted:43 could only be president for two terms but there's nothing stopping him being Jeb!'s vice president. Just sayin' you can't be the vice president unless you qualify to be president, and GWB doesn't qualify to be president due to his two terms he could, however, hold a cabinet position or a SCOTUS seat
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Dec 10, 2015 05:08
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PT6A posted:I thought way more than 2% of black people (though not necessarily African-American) in the US were Muslim... that's pretty hosed up. As a white person I rightfully typically refrain from commenting on this, but I always try to use black when I mean black, and African-American when I'm referring to people like famous African American actress Charlize Theron or African American musician Dave Matthews.
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Dec 10, 2015 05:08
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:you can't be the vice president unless you qualify to be president, and GWB doesn't qualify to be president due to his two terms Otoh hw would qualify as VP
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Dec 10, 2015 05:09
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How the convention works: Round one: any candidate still in the race with pledged delegates may be placed in nomination. Three delegates from each state are automatically unpledged. Any delegates pledged to a candidate who has dropped out are unpledged. Starting with Alabama, and proceeding alphabetically, each state delegation reports the votes of their delegates. A state may "pass" and will still vote in the first round after the other states report. If no candidate receives a majority of the votes in the first round, all delegates become unpledged. There is a call for nominations at which point any name may be placed in nomination if there's a second to the nomination. Then the voting is repeated until a candidate receives a majority.
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Dec 10, 2015 05:11
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https://www.change.org/p/realdonaldtrump-demand-that-donald-trump-prove-he-is-not-muslim
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Dec 10, 2015 05:17
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when i was reading detailed rules i thought i saw that each state had their own rules on how many ballots their pledged delegates were locked in for. some cleared them after the first ballot, others after the second or third, some made them stick with it until the end, and others had more complicated rules, for example alaska: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AK-R#0301quote:After the second round of balloting ... if the Candidate to which the Delegate is pledged is the candidate receiving the fewest number of votes ..., the Delegate is no longer required to support that candidate.
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Dec 10, 2015 05:20
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Is the media still trying to hit Trump with the internment camp thing? That was a pathetically weak attack, but it was funny watching him dance around it. He couldn't say he agreed because obviously he couldn't but he couldn't rule it out cause a decent percent of his supporters probably love the idea Lmao.
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Dec 10, 2015 05:24
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PT6A posted:I thought way more than 2% of black people (though not necessarily African-American) in the US were Muslim... that's pretty hosed up. I agree, fellow son of the wind-swept Causcus. Commonly used racial categories are a poor description of actual cultural and ethnic heritage.
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Dec 10, 2015 05:30
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Latest shenanigans: Trump wants to visit the Temple Mount (aka: 3rd Holiest Place in Islam) http://www.nydailynews.com/news/pol...n=NYDailyNewsTw
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Dec 10, 2015 05:31
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Prof. Lurker posted:Latest shenanigans: Trump wants to visit the Temple Mount (aka: 3rd Holiest Place in Islam) I say let him
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Dec 10, 2015 05:36
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There's probably going to be only ~150 out of ~2200 delegates to the RNC that are unbound - the 3 party leaders in the states where the party leaders are unbound, plus delegates from places like North Dakota that simply don't bind their delegates at all. That's not really enough for them to be a big factor - it's something like 6-7% of the convention, and they're not going to be moving in lockstep.
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Dec 10, 2015 05:39
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Not that I'd care if something were to happen to him, but surely he realizes that such a visit could end extremely poorly for him? Does the Secret Service detail candidates get follow them abroad?
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Dec 10, 2015 05:39
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Nichael posted:Not that I'd care if something were to happen to him, but surely he realizes that such a visit could end extremely poorly for him? Does the Secret Service detail candidates get follow them abroad?
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Dec 10, 2015 05:40
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Pinterest Mom posted:There's probably going to be only ~150 out of ~2200 delegates to the RNC that are unbound - the 3 party leaders in the states where the party leaders are unbound, plus delegates from places like North Dakota that simply don't bind their delegates at all. That's not really enough for them to be a big factor - it's something like 6-7% of the convention, and they're not going to be moving in lockstep. i think you get unbound if your guy drops out of the race - so the proportional early states should throw a few unpledged delegates onto the pile. also i believe colorado's delegates will all be unpledged, since they decided not to do the 'presidential vote' that basically turns the caucuses into a glorified primary with byzantine rules for selecting the delegates who get a pledge assignment at the end of the process based on the 'presidential vote' i think
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Dec 10, 2015 05:41
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Joementum posted:How the convention works:
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Dec 10, 2015 05:41
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Next time around there's going to be nothing but superdelegates, I'm guessing
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Dec 10, 2015 05:42
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Prof. Lurker posted:Latest shenanigans: Trump wants to visit the Temple Mount (aka: 3rd Holiest Place in Islam) He's going to blow himself up inside it. Then we're really gonna see some poo poo.
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Dec 10, 2015 05:43
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Prof. Lurker posted:Latest shenanigans: Trump wants to visit the Temple Mount (aka: 3rd Holiest Place in Islam) lol trump is going to piss on this monument and start world war 3
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Dec 10, 2015 05:43
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Donald Trump's gonna get himself shot, kick off World War III, and 10 years later we'll find out he was an ISIS plant.
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Dec 10, 2015 05:43
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I can't wait until Trump destroys the world.
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Dec 10, 2015 05:45
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Trump's selfless sacrifice for the panmuslim genocide
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Dec 10, 2015 05:45
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Jewel Repetition posted:The thing is, even with the 6% margin of error, the lowest actual support Trump could have is 32% opposed to Carson's highest possible 19% (or Rube's 18%). The reason you can't have low sample size is because its possible for the sampling error of 3-6% to stack with the error associated with having a non-representative sample population. The Zogby poll tells you nothing about what Trump's actual support floor may or may not be, because Zogby is famously terrible at selecting good populations to sample.
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Dec 10, 2015 05:49
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Boomstick Quaid posted:Trump's selfless sacrifice for the panmuslim genocide I hope trump gets one of those death tributes across the sky
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Dec 10, 2015 05:53
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InsanityIsCrazy posted:I hope trump gets one of those death tributes across the sky Instead of a cannon there's just a fart
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Dec 10, 2015 05:54
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InsanityIsCrazy posted:I hope trump gets one of those death tributes across the sky
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Dec 10, 2015 05:54
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oystertoadfish posted:i think you get unbound if your guy drops out of the race - so the proportional early states should throw a few unpledged delegates onto the pile. also i believe colorado's delegates will all be unpledged, since they decided not to do the 'presidential vote' that basically turns the caucuses into a glorified primary with byzantine rules for selecting the delegates who get a pledge assignment at the end of the process based on the 'presidential vote' Colorado isn't doing a straw poll, but delegates will have to file a declaration to support a presidential candidate before they're elected, and they'll be bound to that candidate. Nobody in that state, not even the three party officers, will go into the convention unbound.
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Dec 10, 2015 06:19
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Joementum posted:How the convention works: I heard the only point of states "passing" is so that the winning candidate's home state can be the one who gives them the majority, is that true?
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Dec 10, 2015 06:21
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Trump decides being Mussolini isn't enough and decides to be Pontius Pilate
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Dec 10, 2015 06:21
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Prof. Lurker posted:Latest shenanigans: Trump wants to visit the Temple Mount (aka: 3rd Holiest Place in Islam) Trump's going to propose rebuilding the Temple in Jerusalem, just to lock the apocalyptic Evangelical vote.
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Dec 10, 2015 06:27
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:Donald Trump's gonna get himself shot, kick off World War III, and 10 years later we'll find out he was an ISIS plant. Not gonna lie, that sounds like a decent call of duty campaign.
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Dec 10, 2015 06:53
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Daesh and/or the Saudis could probably buy off Trump by letting him build hotels in their territory.
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Dec 10, 2015 06:59
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Rocks posted:Does the part I bolded mean a brokered convention? If Trump convincingly wins a majority of the primaries and the first thing anyone thinks is 'oh boy, there's a rule that lets us pick someone else!' then we will be facing the end of the republican party as we know it. That's why they're just going to fall in line if he starts winning elections.
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Dec 10, 2015 07:09
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skaboomizzy posted:Jeb! used a Yugo as a price comparison for a bed? When was the last time a new Yugo was sold here? 1986 or so? It's such an oddly specific and outdated reference point. A Yugo and a Hyundai. Gotta hand it to Jeb - he knows what evokes expense and luxury in his voter base.
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Dec 10, 2015 07:38
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http://www.theonion.com/article/iowa-residents-mystified-after-strange-sign-bearin-51936
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Dec 10, 2015 07:41
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oystertoadfish posted:that the numbers aren't bizarre doesn't make the poll better, it could mean they were lucky or it could mean they manipulated their weightings to get a reasonable average Sample size only affects your margin of error, 6℅ is a lot but it doesn't mean the poll is complete nonsense. I agree that it's too much for this kind of thing, though. Phlegmish fucked around with this message at 08:18 on Dec 10, 2015 |
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Dec 10, 2015 08:16
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Peachstapler posted:Across the pond the British Empire stretches its arms and prepares for a fresh new da Sounds like a good way to boost his poll numbers.
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Dec 10, 2015 08:23
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Phlegmish posted:Sample size only affects your margin of error, 6℅ is a lot but it doesn't mean the poll is complete nonsense. I agree that it's too much for this kind of thing, though. No. Going from 5% MOE to 7% MOE when you drop from 500 to 250 observations doesn't sound dramatic, but with the way polls are actually done, it's catastrophic. The margin of error would be 5% or 7% for a random, representative sample. A phone poll clearly isn't, and you have to reweigh your responses to get something that resembles the population more. If you get 50 18-34 respondents in a total sample of 500, then you're reweighing with a 18-29 MOE of 14% (assuming that those 18-29s are representative of the actual population) If you get 25 18-34 respondents in a total sample of 250, though, then your MOE for that subsample shoots up to 20%. You have the same kind of problem with your 34-49 and your 50-65 and your 65+ subsample, and if you're also weighing by gender or race or education things start falling apart really quickly once you get down to sub-400 observations. The topline MOE number isn't worth poo poo.
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Dec 10, 2015 08:35
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