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Adar posted:
No, you don't get paid on Hillary for months. These are all options that conclude by the end of the month, allowing you to compound gains. No reason you can't do both, though. E: Beaten.
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Dec 10, 2015 01:42
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pathetic little tramp posted:I thought it was 12/31/16 - turns out there are actually two Trump indy markets at the moment, be careful out there! Oh, looks like they just added that. To be clear, I'm boosting the one ending in a couple weeks.
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Dec 10, 2015 01:44
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Looks like the North Korea nuke market just got blown... sky high. Seriously though, it's already recoveed half way and you should gobble up some cheaper NOs while you can.
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Dec 10, 2015 13:34
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Also Rubio market just cratered despite a 16 coming out. What is going on in this crazy world? edit: The Rubio polling 13+ market. edit 2: never mind, a Rubio 9 just came out. Where in the world did that come from? Tomato Burger has issued a correction as of 14:25 on Dec 10, 2015 |
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Dec 10, 2015 13:36
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Tomato Burger posted:Also Rubio market just cratered despite a 16 coming out. What is going on in this crazy world? He also got a 9 on a poll that only included half the field (and probably shouldn't have been pulled into the RCP average).
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Dec 10, 2015 14:26
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EngineerSean posted:He also got a 9 on a poll that only included half the field (and probably shouldn't have been pulled into the RCP average). That's the poll I quoted in the primary thread, which included the entire field. I think the RCP editor just went for breakfast when he was halfway through entering the numbers. http://www.scribd.com/doc/292891756...8-2015-Toplines Trump 35 Cruz 16 Carson 13 Rubio 9 Paul 4 Huckabee 3 Kasich 3 Christie 3 Bush 3 Fiorina 1 Santorum <1
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Dec 10, 2015 14:29
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SNAKES N CAKES posted:That's the poll I quoted in the primary thread, which included the entire field. I think the RCP editor just went for breakfast when he was halfway through entering the numbers. Hmm. Well there doesn't seem to be any moneymaking opportunities from the lack of information here unfortunately. Rubio seems to be the biggest upset here.
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Dec 10, 2015 14:35
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Is there any shot at all of Fiorina dropping out soon? She's completely tanked and her next to dropout shares are at 3-4 cents right now.
nachos has issued a correction as of 15:29 on Dec 10, 2015 |
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Dec 10, 2015 15:21
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Tomato Burger posted:Looks like the North Korea nuke market just got blown... sky high. aaahahaha I *JUST* liquidated my DPRKNUKE15 NO shares at $.98 two days ago. Time to buy back in this owns
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Dec 10, 2015 15:27
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Necc0 posted:aaahahaha I *JUST* liquidated my DPRKNUKE15 NO shares at $.98 two days ago. Time to buy back in this owns I sold some .71 basis shares at .96 the other day, but not nearly enough, apparently.
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Dec 10, 2015 16:22
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nachos posted:Is there any shot at all of Fiorina dropping out soon? She's completely tanked and her next to dropout shares are at 3-4 cents right now. I don't think she's smart enough to realize she should. But that brings up: let's say no one drops until Iowa, and then the day after multiple people drop. How is "who dropped first" determined then, just by the minute the announcement successfully hit the press?
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Dec 10, 2015 16:39
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fishmech posted:I don't think she's smart enough to realize she should. Yeah the rules are triggered initially by a press announcement so it'd be whichever one hit first and then subsequently lasted the timeout period. I'm assuming this also means other subsequent drop outs would be placed in queue instead of everything being out on hold until the end of the timeout period and then the next dropout counting *after* the first campaign decides to not actually drop out.
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Dec 10, 2015 16:43
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fishmech posted:I don't think she's smart enough to realize she should. As to the first point, I think Fiorina knows her role. She doesn't expect to win.
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Dec 10, 2015 17:10
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Vox Nihili posted:As to the first point, I think Fiorina knows her role. She doesn't expect to win. And that role would be to attack Hillary without appearing sexist. I wouldn't spend more than a few pennies on her dropping out next.
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Dec 10, 2015 17:16
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I can't even remember the last mention of Hillary now that I think about it. Trump's antics have made Hillary basically invisible at this point. The GOP doesn't even have time to attack her because they have to deal with the latest thing Trump said.
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Dec 10, 2015 17:22
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nachos posted:I can't even remember the last mention of Hillary now that I think about it. Trump's antics have made Hillary basically invisible at this point. The GOP doesn't even have time to attack her because they have to deal with the latest thing Trump said. She's probably the #2 name in terms of mentions by republican candidates behind Trump. Problem is that the #1 name is eating up a record proportion of the attention now. The moderate/establishment candidates would love to turn attention toward Hillary, but they don't have a chance anymore. It is now the Month of Trump--again.
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Dec 10, 2015 18:23
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I think Fiorina's original goal was pretty clearly a Bush or Rubio VP slot, which would require sticking around until later. But who knows whether she still thinks they can pull it out. She's also rich enough to pay for her campaign out of her own pocket if she runs out of money but feels like sticking around. The drop out market is a crap shoot. There are so many of them that have no chance of winning, but don't care because they were only running to sell books/raise their profile/get a fat Fox contract. The fact that their true goal isn't winning means they don't give a poo poo if winning is hopeless. Shear Modulus has issued a correction as of 18:50 on Dec 10, 2015 |
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Dec 10, 2015 18:28
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Shear Modulus posted:The drop out market is a crap shoot. There are so many of them that have no chance of winning, but don't care because they were only running to sell books/raise their profile/get a fat Fox contract. The fact that their true goal isn't winning means they don't give a poo poo if winning is hopeless. As a general rule, it's a very good idea to avoid markets where you are basically guessing at one person's state of mind and general craziness. Except the VP markets, those own.
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Dec 10, 2015 20:06
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Adar posted:As a general rule, it's a very good idea to avoid markets where you are basically guessing at one person's state of mind and general craziness. Except the VP markets, those own. I'm still waiting for everyone else to come to their senses and fill my Condi no sell order for 99c. The gun show loophole closure market has tripled in the past few hours, 40c hell yeah baby  .
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Dec 10, 2015 20:56
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Two new SCOTUS markets: one person one vote & UT Austin
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Dec 10, 2015 22:39
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So the Obama gallup 8-10 YES market dropped 60 points today while I was at work. Trying to decide if I should salvage what I can or just roll the dice and see what tomorrow brings
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Dec 11, 2015 00:57
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Flippycunt posted:So the Obama gallup 8-10 YES market dropped 60 points today while I was at work. Trying to decide if I should salvage what I can or just roll the dice and see what tomorrow brings Why are you betting on polls? Really wish I had dumped more than 50 cents into the gun show loophole market. Yes has gone from 5 this morning to 50 right now and I sold half at about 20. Shear Modulus has issued a correction as of 01:16 on Dec 11, 2015 |
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Dec 11, 2015 01:13
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nachos posted:Is there any shot at all of Fiorina dropping out soon? She's completely tanked and her next to dropout shares are at 3-4 cents right now. Nobody drops out now unless they absolutely run out of cash. Iowa and NH are so close, why drop out before you give it a shot if you've put in all this effort?
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Dec 11, 2015 01:17
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Flippycunt posted:So the Obama gallup 8-10 YES market dropped 60 points today while I was at work. Trying to decide if I should salvage what I can or just roll the dice and see what tomorrow brings Don't bet on polls. The dirty secret is we all bet on polls. But seriously don't bet on the Obama approval/Country Right Direction crap. I thought the gun loophole thing was a slam dunk NO, so good thing I only got 5 shares at the price I wanted.
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Dec 11, 2015 01:24
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Medical device tax repeal is trading in the high eighties. Good bet?
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Dec 11, 2015 01:26
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I thought the gun loophole thing was a slam dunk NO, so good thing I only got 5 shares at the price I wanted. I'm not sure it will actually happen, but people have been responding to this report from this morning: http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/262796-white-house-finalizing-executive-action-on-guns
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Dec 11, 2015 01:40
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Shear Modulus posted:Why are you betting on polls? The stove calls to me and I must touch it, apparently
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Dec 11, 2015 01:43
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Shear Modulus posted:I'm not sure it will actually happen, but people have been responding to this report from this morning: http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/262796-white-house-finalizing-executive-action-on-guns I saw that too. Its a coin flip now, probably still leans NO. I was trying to buy 50 of them at 90 cents the day it came out, but only 5 got filled and I didn't want to chase it to 97 or whatever it was, and then I used up all my available cash on other stuff so all my open offers got cancelled Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good
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Dec 11, 2015 01:47
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I saw that too. Its a coin flip now, probably still leans NO. I was trying to buy 50 of them at 90 cents the day it came out, but only 5 got filled and I didn't want to chase it to 97 or whatever it was, and then I used up all my available cash on other stuff so all my open offers got cancelled bought some of these cheap right after someone posted about that market this morning, but was holding out for 50c to sell. Now I'm a bit torn, since everyone is lining up to sell in the low 40s... I think I'll hold and hope obama's move gets more coverage I'm putting way too much into these debate markets. I can't see any logic in any individual candidate speaking the most, even trump, costing 40c+. Also ended up selling all my Bush Dropout NOs for 85c in (the extremely likely) case he has a terrible debate showing. I'll think about re-buying on a drop
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Dec 11, 2015 03:10
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thethreeman posted:Also ended up selling all my Bush Dropout NOs for 85c in (the extremely likely) case he has a terrible debate showing. I'll think about re-buying on a drop
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Dec 11, 2015 03:26
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Peachstapler posted:Barring Jeb rolling around on the stage bawling like a baby, this is probably going to stay above 80 from here on out. I'd encourage anyone looking to earn a return to hold onto Bush NO dropout. Way too much money and influence behind that guy for him to leave us before New Hampshire's primary. Is a dip from 85 possible? Sure, it's been going down to 83 and 82 some days. Oh I agree it seems like a very good bet right now, I just don't see any catalysts for it to move up in the coming weeks, and if anything, the opposite with the debate. If I've held a PI position more than 2 weeks I get the itch to sell and redeploy in more volatile markets 
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Dec 11, 2015 03:49
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Flippycunt posted:The stove calls to me and I must touch it, apparently PreditctIt: the poll calls to me and I must touch it
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Dec 11, 2015 03:56
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thethreeman posted:I'm putting way too much into these debate markets. I can't see any logic in any individual candidate speaking the most, even trump, costing 40c+. Also ended up selling all my Bush Dropout NOs for 85c in (the extremely likely) case he has a terrible debate showing. I'll think about re-buying on a drop What I don't understand are the CNN debate viewership numbers. Their last CNN debate got 24 million, Trump just Trumped this month and people are expecting fewer viewers? 
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Dec 11, 2015 04:45
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Fuschia tude posted:What I don't understand are the CNN debate viewership numbers. Their last CNN debate got 24 million, Trump just Trumped this month and people are expecting fewer viewers? Trump hasn't had the most speaking time since like the first debate, no one is going to say anything interesting that isn't picked up and run into the ground by all the networks in the morning, and debates are boring as gently caress to watch. Plus holy poo poo it's only 10 days to Christmas and I've got so much shopping to do and eggnog to drink, gently caress spending time watching people talk for a couple hours.
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Dec 11, 2015 04:56
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Fuschia tude posted:What I don't understand are the CNN debate viewership numbers. Their last CNN debate got 24 million, Trump just Trumped this month and people are expecting fewer viewers? To be fair, there's a very clear downward trend with the debate ratings. Each one has had fewer viewers than the last one. That being said, I do agree that 22 million or more is a fairly safe bet. Not just because of Trump, but also because CNN has been running ads for it. I've got $20 riding on it, which I feel is worth risking.
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Dec 11, 2015 05:35
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Is Rand Paul dropping out? It just shot to 40 in the last few minutes. I don't see any recent headlines say anything one way or another
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Dec 11, 2015 17:24
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Not that I know of. He won't make the debate because of poor polling but that's about all anyone's talking about.
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Dec 11, 2015 17:31
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Is Rand Paul dropping out? It just shot to 40 in the last few minutes. I don't see any recent headlines say anything one way or another Looks like it was just someone reacting to debate headlines. Scared the hell out of me, though. He's still one of my major investments.
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Dec 11, 2015 17:51
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Those Paul YES shares are on the decline. Someone was just looking for money to dump. Speaking of that market, Graham has been consistently criticizing primary voters for their Trump admiration/giving into hateful rhetoric. That and he called the current political atmosphere "crap". My gut's telling me he's on his last leg but his good pal John McCain may've told him to limp past New Hampshire, so I haven't bought any shares yet. Really wanted to last week but my 16-cent offer was left in the dust and now he's up to 32-cents.
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Dec 11, 2015 18:30
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Peachstapler posted:Those Paul YES shares are on the decline. Someone was just looking for money to dump. Graham isn't likely to drop out before Paul, since that's supposedly the main reason he's in the race to begin with.
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Dec 11, 2015 18:37
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