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UnfortunateSexFart
May 18, 2008

𒃻 𒌓ð’‰𒋫 𒆷ð’€𒅅𒆷
𒆠𒂖 𒌉 𒌫 ð’®𒈠𒈾𒅗 𒂉 𒉡𒌒𒂉𒊑


Femtosecond posted:

Slack is an example of how dysfunctional and weak Vancouver's startup ecosystem is. Their funding comes from the USA and they've split their company such that all the tech work is done in the Valley. So much for Vancouver having tech talent on hand. Some design and marketing work is done up here, I assume because Stewart Butterfield just likes Vancouver and doesn't want to move.

Stewart Butterfield used to be my dad's boss and had no problem moving to the US when Yahoo bought Flickr. My dad was the only one at Ludicorp who refused - he's from California.

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Pixelboy
Sep 13, 2005

Now, I know what you're thinking...

Ccs posted:

I dunno, maybe in Toronto and Vancouver, but cynicism is alive and well here in the maritimes.
Yeah, but who'd go there?

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Ccs posted:

I use Slack and I like it but I look at their list of competitors and there are a ton of companies doing the same thing. They may do it better than say Microsoft Lync, but $1 billion seems excessive.

Slack is worth around 4B CAD at their current valuation. They had really meteoric growth around a year ago, much faster than any of their competitors (like Yammer, which ended up being acquired for over 1B); I'm not sure how things have changed since then.

Also Lync is absolute garbage and not a competitor at all.

blah_blah fucked around with this message at 06:13 on Dec 14, 2015

Hal_2005
Feb 23, 2007

blah_blah posted:

Slack is worth around 4B CAD at their current valuation. They had really meteoric growth around a year ago, much faster than any of their competitors (like Yammer, which ended up being acquired for over 1B); I'm not sure how things have changed since then.

Also Lync is absolute garbage and not a competitor at all.

Private rounds are tough to value because of Rachet's and Shotgun clauses which usually encourage top ticking each valuation on a Revenue basis. Square, Box & Hortonworks are good examples of where Slack may go "soon".

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
https://next.ft.com/content/624ba40c-a19b-11e5-8d70-42b68cfae6e4

quote:


The Federal Reserve is set to follow a much anticipated interest rate rise this week with two to four more increases next year, leading economists say.

Markets are bracing themselves for the first US rate rise in almost a decade on Wednesday. A Financial Times poll of 51 top economists highlights the stakes as any increase would have profound consequences for the world economy, particularlyemerging markets.



quote:


The Fed has gone to great lengths to prepare the markets for a quarter-point rise at this week’s meeting — a move expected by all but one of the economists surveyed. But there is no such consensus over how high interest rates will ultimately go.

Among those polled, 24 per cent expected two rises next year of 25 basis points each, 39 per cent expected three rises and 30 per cent forecast four rises.

Overall, the median projection in the FT poll is for the Fed to lift rates by 75 basis points in 2016 and a further 100 in 2017.

Buckle the gently caress up motherfuckers cuz this bitch is about to take off

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Technically they are raising interest rates by infinity percent. Something to think about.

Terebus
Feb 17, 2007

Pillbug

Cultural Imperial posted:

https://next.ft.com/content/624ba40c-a19b-11e5-8d70-42b68cfae6e4



Buckle the gently caress up motherfuckers cuz this bitch is about to take off

I remember someone earlier in the thread saying that fixed rate mortgages were tied to the US somehow but I didn't quite get the explanation or how that made sense. Could someone please explain or post a link that explains things?

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Hal_2005 posted:

Private rounds are tough to value because of Rachet's and Shotgun clauses which usually encourage top ticking each valuation on a Revenue basis. Square, Box & Hortonworks are good examples of where Slack may go "soon".

Sure, I understand the issues with late-stage startup valuations and the difference between common and preferred stock. But Slack wasn't one of the startups that got hit by the recent waves of writedowns (unlike Dropbox, Zenefits, and Snapchat, to name a few), although in general I haven't heard a lot from them recently. In any event, they are certainly doing much better (both in terms of valuation and growth trajectory) than e.g. Hootsuite is.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Terebus posted:

I remember someone earlier in the thread saying that fixed rate mortgages were tied to the US somehow but I didn't quite get the explanation or how that made sense. Could someone please explain or post a link that explains things?

Banks raise money for mortgages on the bond market. The bond market is affected by US Fed rate changes.

The next couple of years of confused realtors complaining about how mortgage rates are too high when the BoC rate is zero should be fun.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Good morning and get hosed Canada

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-14/never-mind-35-the-world-s-cheapest-oil-is-already-close-to-20

quote:


As oil crashes through $35 a barrel in New York, some producers are already living with the reality of much lower prices.

A mix of Mexican crudes is already valued at less than $28, an 11-year low, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Iraq is offering its heaviest variety of oil to buyers in Asia for about $25. In western Canada, some producers are selling for less than $22 a barrel.

“More than one-third of the global oil production is not economical at these prices,” Ehsan Ul-Haq, senior consultant at KBC Advanced Technologies Plc, said by e-mail. “Canadian oil producers could have difficulty in covering their operational costs.”



peter banana
Sep 2, 2008

Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.

Reverse Centaur posted:

Stewart Butterfield used to be my dad's boss and had no problem moving to the US when Yahoo bought Flickr. My dad was the only one at Ludicorp who refused - he's from California.

The dude's name is actually Stewart Butterfield? I thought that was a joke for their ads.

Squibbles
Aug 24, 2000

Mwaha ha HA ha!

peter banana posted:

The dude's name is actually Stewart Butterfield? I thought that was a joke for their ads.

Brother of Brian Butterfield? https://youtu.be/d6s994jOFuY

Mantle
May 15, 2004

ocrumsprug posted:

Banks raise money for mortgages on the bond market. The bond market is affected by US Fed rate changes.

The next couple of years of confused realtors complaining about how mortgage rates are too high when the BoC rate is zero should be fun.

To elaborate, a bank has different expectations for returns depending on where it invests its money. If a bank can get 3% return from a super low risk government bond, it will demand a higher rate than 3% when investing in a homeowner to account for the increased risk.

When US rates go up, Canadian banks will have a better place to put their money and will demand a higher rate from homeowners to account for increased risk.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Mantle posted:

To elaborate, a bank has different expectations for returns depending on where it invests its money. If a bank can get 3% return from a super low risk government bond, it will demand a higher rate than 3% when investing in a homeowner to account for the increased risk.

When US rates go up, Canadian banks will have a better place to put their money and will demand a higher rate from homeowners to account for increased risk.

Not to mention the other possible trainwreck is with emerging market debts. EM got piles of loans thanks to things such as high commodity prices.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-06/pain-of-emerging-markets-revealed-as-debt-sales-sink-98-percent

Juul-Whip
Mar 10, 2008

e: whoops wrong thread

Juul-Whip fucked around with this message at 19:36 on Dec 14, 2015

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

The prospect of a interest rate hike is already squeezing junk bonds.

It's mainly driven by higher interest rates means safe bets pay more and therefore higher yield junk options at the older rates start looking much less attractive vs. the delta to safer bond investments

Emerging market debts are another area that will also get screwed over by the above, higher US interest rates means emerging market debt will have much less interest from lenders and even if they find lenders will have to crank up their coupon to make up for the higher risk.

heehee
Sep 5, 2012

haha wow i cant believe how lucky we got to win :D
I have like 6k in savings, what the heck should I be putting it into

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

heeheex2 posted:

I have like 6k in savings, what the heck should I be putting it into

If you have only 6k then you shouldn't be investing it at all.

UnfortunateSexFart
May 18, 2008

𒃻 𒌓ð’‰𒋫 𒆷ð’€𒅅𒆷
𒆠𒂖 𒌉 𒌫 ð’®𒈠𒈾𒅗 𒂉 𒉡𒌒𒂉𒊑


Phew, good thing I bought a condo so I don't have to deal with these pesky tax increases. First step on the property ladder my rear end

http://www.nsnews.com/news/2016-north-shore-propery-assessments-going-up-way-up-1.2132070

quote:

This week, B.C. Assessment sent early notices to more than 2,130 property owners on the North Shore, warning that their assessments will be up significantly more than the average for their area.

And that’s considering increases of 15 to 25 per cent will be “typical” among many single-family homes in the Lower Mainland, said area assessor Jason Grant.

“If you went back to 1980 there would be only two or three other times when the single-family market across the North Shore has moved as quickly and by as much as it has in the last year,” said Grant.

“The increases for single-family homes across the North Shore are the largest they’ve been in about 10 years.”

The assessment authority sends out early warning notices every year to some homeowners.

But this year, there are more letters going out than ever before.

“The real estate market is moving very quickly,” said Grant. “The (number) of letters this year is the most I can recall.”

The assessment authority sends the early warning letters to homeowners whose properties increased in value more than 15 per cent above the average increase for the area. That means if house values are up an average of 20 per cent in West Vancouver, only owners whose assessments are up by at least 35 per cent over last year will get the letter.

Those owners are likely to have sticker shock come property tax time.

“Properties that go up dramatically more than the average will see a tax increase,” said Grant.

On the North Shore, 1,087 property owners in West Vancouver were sent early warning letters. An additional 963 owners in the City of North Vancouver were sent letters, along with 83 homeowners in the District of North Vancouver.

A total of about 37,000 early warning notices have been sent out province-wide – two-thirds of those within the Lower Mainland.

As one example of what to expect when assessments are mailed to all homeowners at the beginning of January, a 1971 single-family home in Lynn Valley valued at $993,000 last year will be valued at $1.126 million this year, an increase of 13 per cent, said Grant.

Increases at the high end of the market are likely to be even higher. A 1967 waterfront single-family home in West Vancouver valued at $3.54 million last year would be worth $4.38 million this year – an increase of 24 per cent.


Commercial and industrial properties will also see increases of between 10 to 25 per cent in assessed value.

And the rise of housing values into the stratosphere isn’t expected to stop there.

Assessments that get mailed out the first week of January are based on what properties were worth in July of 2015, said Grant – but house values have continued to head up in the past six months.

Grant said anyone who receives a notice and wants to appeal should get in touch with the assessment office early. Last year only about one per cent of property owners appealed their assessments.

“Most owners do understand what their properties are worth,” he said.

Last year, single-family homes in North Vancouver rose between six and seven per cent in value while single-family homes in West Vancouver rose about nine per cent. Areas including Lynn Valley, Pemberton Heights and the Ambleside waterfront saw among the highest increases.

The value of condos is rising at a much more modest rate, said Grant.

http://www.nsnews.com/news/2016-north-shore-propery-assessments-going-up-way-up-1.2132070

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.
The jumps in valuations this year have been quite the thing to behold. Things really went off the rails in 2015 in Vancouver, as if they weren't already.

McGavin
Sep 18, 2012

Lexicon posted:

The jumps in valuations this year have been quite the thing to behold. Things really went off the rails in 2015 in Vancouver, as if they weren't already.

It's almost as if this exuberance wasn't rational.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

McGavin posted:

It's almost as if this exuberance wasn't rational.

Every time Vancouver makes me think "Yeah, this has to be it" we double down and go even more insane.

The old reductio ad absurdum I used to have for Vancouver housing, was average house prices hitting $19 million inside twenty years. (What they are on pace for.) It looks less and less implausible all the time.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Russia sees the possibility of $30 oil
http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/14/news/economy/russia-30-oil-budget/

quote:

Russia is planning for oil prices to drop to $30 per barrel in 2016.
The country's top finance official, Anton Siluanov, said the government must be prepared for prices to fall further in 2016 as the global glut grows and new supply -- for example from Iran -- enters the market.
"Everything indicates that low oil prices are likely to dominate next year. And it is possible that at some periods [the oil price] will be $30 per barrel," Siluanov was quoted as saying by Russian state-run news agencies.
That would spell more pain for Russia. Oil and gas exports make up almost half of government revenue.

Oil futures were trading at their lowest level in nearly seven years on Monday, sliding below $35 per barrel.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
The person who times the bottom of this slide is going to be rich as all gently caress in four years. I need to HELOC my beard and pump it into oil.

Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

heeheex2 posted:

I have like 6k in savings, what the heck should I be putting it into

Get 3-6 months savings in cash, put it away in a HISA or something. After you do this anything above this is investment money, the former is rainy day money for when our economy or your job disappears overnight.

Rime posted:

The person who times the bottom of this slide is going to be rich as all gently caress in four years. I need to HELOC my beard and pump it into oil.

A smarter investment is Vancouver real estate, 18% YoY for 2015. It has nowhere to go but up you see.

Seat Safety Switch
May 27, 2008

MY RELIGION IS THE SMALL BLOCK V8 AND COMMANDMENTS ONE THROUGH TEN ARE NEVER LIFT.

Pillbug
Really I'm surprised that Vancouver homeowners aren't filling their abandoned investment condos with barrels of cheap-rear end crude oil. It's called a hedge, douchebags.

Femtosecond
Aug 2, 2003

Rime posted:

The person who times the bottom of this slide is going to be rich as all gently caress in four years. I need to HELOC my beard and pump it into oil.

What if the bottom of this slide is the date when Saudi Arabia runs out of oil? I've seen the argument that Saudi Arabia and other oil producing states that can produce cheap oil at a price dramatically lower than everyone else will continue to sell their oil at their best price in order to take marketshare. I don't know a lot about oil markets and the history of oil, but this seems like a credible long term possibility to me.

If you can easily undercut the competition, it makes sense to do so, otherwise you're pointlessly giving them breathing room. As nations continue to move toward renewables it makes sense to sell this product now.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

Seat Safety Switch posted:

Really I'm surprised that Vancouver homeowners aren't filling their abandoned investment condos with barrels of cheap-rear end crude oil. It's called a hedge, douchebags.

:golfclap:

This is the most contangoest post ever in the history of the sa forums

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate

This is my new favourite article about rich people crying.

Dreylad posted:

Amusingly (and not surprisingly), Bill Davis hates the current incarnation of the Ontario Conservatives, and also the fact that Stephen Harper listed Davis as one of his heroes. That's not entirely on the record, but I don't think he'd care either.

He gave a interview in the Star during the last Ontario election where he basically said the current PC's have lost their way and he won't vote for them.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Femtosecond posted:

What if the bottom of this slide is the date when Saudi Arabia runs out of oil? I've seen the argument that Saudi Arabia and other oil producing states that can produce cheap oil at a price dramatically lower than everyone else will continue to sell their oil at their best price in order to take marketshare. I don't know a lot about oil markets and the history of oil, but this seems like a credible long term possibility to me.

If you can easily undercut the competition, it makes sense to do so, otherwise you're pointlessly giving them breathing room. As nations continue to move toward renewables it makes sense to sell this product now.
The Saudis can produce oil very cheaply in that it costs them very little to get it out of the ground, but they can't afford to sell it very cheaply for very long because their generous welfare system is the only thing that keeps the country from collapsing into an ungovernable mess that will quickly turn into a civil war. They're burning through their reserves at the moment and their borrowing costs are shooting up; they need oil to be selling at over $100 per barrel to get back onto an even keel.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

it's funny to think just a couple years ago there were multiple threads here about peak oil and how high oil prices meant the end of the world. and now that we're at the other extreme of the commodity cycle, people assume that these prices will last forever.

Furnaceface
Oct 21, 2004




shrike82 posted:

it's funny to think just a couple years ago there were multiple threads here about peak oil and how high oil prices meant the end of the world. and now that we're at the other extreme of the commodity cycle, people assume that these prices will last forever.

Many countries across the globe are setting up infrastructure for alternate energy sources so the demand is probably not going to be as high as it once was anyway. Will it stay at $30/bbl? No. Will it shoot back up to $100/bbl? No loving chance.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

Furnaceface posted:

Will it shoot back up to $100/bbl? No loving chance.

LMAO, famous last words. People much smarter than you have blown up billion dollar funds with bets like this.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
You want to know what's funny? The nexus of peak oil pearl clutching, The Oil Drum had to shut down, presumably to save face. The site is still up for the lulz

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Furnaceface posted:

Many countries across the globe are setting up infrastructure for alternate energy sources so the demand is probably not going to be as high as it once was anyway. Will it stay at $30/bbl? No. Will it shoot back up to $100/bbl? No loving chance.

The lesson you should've taken from the precipitous, anticipated-by-no-one oil drop is that this is an area of human endeavour where "no loving chance" assertions are best left unsaid.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

LemonDrizzle posted:

The Saudis can produce oil very cheaply in that it costs them very little to get it out of the ground, but they can't afford to sell it very cheaply for very long because their generous welfare system is the only thing that keeps the country from collapsing into an ungovernable mess that will quickly turn into a civil war. They're burning through their reserves at the moment and their borrowing costs are shooting up; they need oil to be selling at over $100 per barrel to get back onto an even keel.

Even better climate change is expected to drive up middle east temperatures even more if it isn't stopped.

The whole area is basically hosed in the long run.

shrike82
Jun 11, 2005

etalian posted:

Even better climate change is expected to drive up middle east temperatures even more if it isn't stopped.

The whole area is basically hosed in the long run.

Good riddance.

Tipps
Apr 18, 2006


party in the front

business in the back

jm20 posted:

Get 3-6 months savings in cash, put it away in a HISA or something. After you do this anything above this is investment money, the former is rainy day money for when our economy or your job disappears overnight.

This is what I did around this time last year as an attempt to become An Adult, since I had a chunk of cash sitting in my chequing account for no reason. I stacked a TFSA with enough to cover a year of rent, and put the rest in mutual funds through my credit union where I continue to put in a bit every month.

In September I asked my credit union's Money Pro(tm) whether my investments are okay given oil prices dropping and lovely CAD and whatnot, and they assured me that because the majority of the holdings were in the finance industry, as opposed to energy/oil and gas, I was fine.

But then I see things like:



And it makes me panic, because I don't know what the gently caress I'm doing and what I could/should be doing differently - other than hoarding my retirement savings under my mattress.

:sigh:

peter banana
Sep 2, 2008

Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.

Furnaceface posted:

Many countries across the globe are setting up infrastructure for alternate energy sources so the demand is probably not going to be as high as it once was anyway. Will it stay at $30/bbl? No. Will it shoot back up to $100/bbl? No loving chance.

Not as funny as my father and stepmother believing Harper lowered the price of oil to take pressure off of the struggling Canadian middle class. Thanks SunMedia :thumbsup:

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Risky Bisquick
Jan 18, 2008

PLEASE LET ME WRITE YOUR VICTIM IMPACT STATEMENT SO I CAN FURTHER DEMONSTRATE THE CALAMITY THAT IS OUR JUSTICE SYSTEM.



Buglord

Tipps posted:

This is what I did around this time last year as an attempt to become An Adult, since I had a chunk of cash sitting in my chequing account for no reason. I stacked a TFSA with enough to cover a year of rent, and put the rest in mutual funds through my credit union where I continue to put in a bit every month.

In September I asked my credit union's Money Pro(tm) whether my investments are okay given oil prices dropping and lovely CAD and whatnot, and they assured me that because the majority of the holdings were in the finance industry, as opposed to energy/oil and gas, I was fine.

But then I see things like:



And it makes me panic, because I don't know what the gently caress I'm doing and what I could/should be doing differently - other than hoarding my retirement savings under my mattress.

:sigh:

Go to the Finance Thread. You can ask specifics and get specific answers. tl;dr of investing right now is underweight (or short) Canada

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