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Shear Modulus posted:The fact that GOP opinion-havers have incorrectly predicted Trump's demise for months, and that nobody is willing to go on the offensive except Kasich makes it look like nobody is going to actually do anything and he'll steamroll the field. Yeah exactly. It almost feels like Biden.Run all over again where I have all the Very Serious people telling me to ignore the reality right in front of me. The guy is filling stadiums on an almost daily basis. If he maintains this lead into the new year I'm going to start letting off my Trump.No shares. If he takes New Hampshire & South Carolina I'll liquidate. No matter what happens I got a hell of a lot of Bush No for cheap 
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Dec 14, 2015 22:36
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What the hell is going on with this medical device tax market? It's gone from high 80s to 65 because of some language/rules weirdness.
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Dec 14, 2015 23:30
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DEC17SHUTDOWN15 has floated up to 10/91. Is there any reason to think this week will be like 2013 rather than like last week?
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Dec 15, 2015 03:41
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lol they really need to close out the 12/14 Gov Shutdown market, I need money to gambool tonight and I have six hundred in that
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Dec 15, 2015 14:49
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Is there a consensus here on the medical device tax market?
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Dec 15, 2015 15:57
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Wanamingo posted:Is there a consensus here on the medical device tax market? My understanding is that the predictit YES prices are going up because dems might horse trade away a "pause" in the medical device tax as opposed to an outright repeal. Given this congress, any pause should be interpreted as a de facto repeal and so I don't think this is likely and that NO is undervalued right now.
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Dec 15, 2015 16:49
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Peachstapler posted:With Iowa's GOP caucus-goers selecting such winners in recent memory as Huckabee and Santorum, Carson YES is a diamond in the rough. (I bought 316 .... because God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son). I have 3000+ Carson YES's as well, and Cruz NO's in the 30's is a steal.
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Dec 15, 2015 17:08
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Jeb dropping out before Iowa crashed, able to pick up some YES for .11 if you want. It's by far my single largest market though and can't take any more on. The reason I still like Jeb YES: this is a market to where a single event would resolve it in my favor and not the other way around until February 1. There will definitely be speculation when a week from Iowa it's still Trump/Cruz/Rubio. vv I still have to explain myself each time; Jeb is highly likely to be in the race come Iowa, but there will be calls for him to drop out a week or two prior and I have sell orders in around .22. i say swears online has issued a correction as of 19:22 on Dec 15, 2015 |
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Dec 15, 2015 19:19
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Jeb ain't dropping out before Iowa.
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Dec 15, 2015 19:20
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Aliquid posted:Jeb dropping out before Iowa crashed, able to pick up some YES for .11 if you want. It's by far my single largest market though and can't take any more on. I think the price will fall slowly as Iowa gets closer and closer. No one expects him to drop out a week or two before the caucus after campaigning for the better part of the year. Iowa isn't even his target state, so even dismal Iowa polling wouldn't push him out. You're basically hoping for a report that his campaign has gone bankrupt at this point.
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Dec 15, 2015 19:23
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Aliquid posted:I have sell orders in around .22. I'm glad you have a gameplan to get rid of it all before Iowa. That way you don't lose all of it.
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Dec 15, 2015 19:25
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Medical tax is now crashing because of this report http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/263255-congress-on-verge-of-major-deal-freezing-obamacare-taxes quote:Congress is closing in on a major tax deal expected to be unveiled Tuesday that would postpone two key ObamaCare taxes for two years.
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Dec 15, 2015 20:22
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District Selectman posted:Jeb ain't dropping out before Iowa. I really wish the market had been "will he drop out before super tuesday?" That would've been a hilarious ride.
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Dec 15, 2015 20:25
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Aliquid posted:vv I still have to explain myself each time; Jeb is highly likely to be in the race come Iowa, but there will be calls for him to drop out a week or two prior and I have sell orders in around .22. Just keep in mind that you're playing against others who are playing this same game, not public sentiment. Why would you not instead buy the $.90 shares for the safe win? You make roughly the same amount per share.
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Dec 15, 2015 21:02
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Also- oh my god this new market. "Will CNN moderators ask candidates if they'd support Trump as nominee?" 
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Dec 15, 2015 21:03
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quote:During the presidential debate conducted by CNN on December 15, 2015, a moderator will ask one or more candidates, other than Donald Trump, about their intention to support or endorse Mr. Trump should he win the Republican nomination for president. A question that does not mention Mr. Trump by name, but asks one or more candidates other than Mr. Trump about their intention to support whoever wins the Republican presidential nomination, or about their commitment to the Republican National Committee Presidential Loyalty Oath, will be sufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. Trump doesn’t have to be specifically mentioned.
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Dec 15, 2015 21:17
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Necc0 posted:Just keep in mind that you're playing against others who are playing this same game, not public sentiment. Why would you not instead buy the $.90 shares for the safe win? You make roughly the same amount per share. Just a note, the amount made per share isn't really the gold standard. It's amount made relative to amount invested. So buying at 5 and selling at 20 cents is way more efficient than buying at 85 and getting the $1 end of market payout. (None of these numbers are meant to be predictive of what will happen in the Bush dropout market.)
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Dec 15, 2015 21:18
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nachos posted:My understanding is that the predictit YES prices are going up because dems might horse trade away a "pause" in the medical device tax as opposed to an outright repeal. Given this congress, any pause should be interpreted as a de facto repeal and so I don't think this is likely and that NO is undervalued right now. nachos posted:Medical tax is now crashing because of this report Right after I put in $8 on NO, too. That's enough for a decent lunch 
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Dec 15, 2015 21:28
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Vox Nihili posted:Just a note, the amount made per share isn't really the gold standard. It's amount made relative to amount invested. So buying at 5 and selling at 20 cents is way more efficient than buying at 85 and getting the $1 end of market payout. (None of these numbers are meant to be predictive of what will happen in the Bush dropout market.) Oh yeah definitely I'm just pointing out there's still good money to be made on the way safer side. Essentially looking at a very risky 100% return vs. 11% and almost guaranteed. I'm just really risk-averse 
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Dec 15, 2015 22:01
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Aliquid posted:Jeb dropping out before Iowa crashed, able to pick up some YES for .11 if you want. It's by far my single largest market though and can't take any more on. 
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Dec 15, 2015 22:08
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"Will Democrat nominee win at least 370 electoral votes" (20c) is an interesting buy that may be undervalued if you consider the "Donald Trump running as 3rd party candidate" (32c) hypothesis of splitting the R ticket. https://www.predictit.org/Contract/612/Will-the-Democratic-presidential-nominee-win-at-least-370-electoral-votes-in-2016#data For reference, Clinton won 370 electoral votes in 1992 w/ Perot in that race. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election#Electoral_college_results
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Dec 15, 2015 22:33
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Yeah I think that's a fair price for that market. It's a long-shot but definitely possible.
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Dec 15, 2015 22:38
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Clinton would have to carry the Middle South, which is a tall order. I don't think a third-party run will happen, which makes it harder.
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Dec 15, 2015 23:40
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Necc0 posted:Also- oh my god this new market. "Will CNN moderators ask candidates if they'd support Trump as nominee?" They just asked this question in the kiddie debate. All but sure they will ask it on the main stage Edit: there is nothing in the rules that says big table. This will reslove as yes Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 00:54 on Dec 16, 2015 |
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Dec 16, 2015 00:51
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Zeta Taskforce posted:They just asked this question in the kiddie debate. All but sure they will ask it on the main stage In the comments they're saying the rules don't specify the main debate so this market may actually have already resolved as yes.
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Dec 16, 2015 00:54
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pathetic little tramp posted:In the comments they're saying the rules don't specify the main debate so this market may actually have already resolved as yes. It hasn't yet and shares are still in the mid-80s so I'd snap them up now
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Dec 16, 2015 00:59
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I own exactly one share at .78
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Dec 16, 2015 01:01
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nachos posted:It hasn't yet and shares are still in the mid-80s so I'd snap them up now I just flipped 25 from 70 to 90, I'm going to settle for that 
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Dec 16, 2015 01:04
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Zeta Taskforce posted:They just asked this question in the kiddie debate. All but sure they will ask it on the main stage It won't count. "The debate" has always been used to reference the big debate.
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Dec 16, 2015 01:30
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Vox Nihili posted:It won't count. "The debate" has always been used to reference the big debate. They've used "first-tier debate" before whereas this is just "the debate" This technically should have resolved already based on the rules in place but who knows what predictit will do
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Dec 16, 2015 01:38
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Yeah PredictIt kinda junked that up. I just bought 100 shares of Kasich most speaking time fer 6 bucks, gonna see if I can flip it day-trade style during the real debate.
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Dec 16, 2015 01:47
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PredictIt moderator just cleared it up so this market is pretty much done. First debate counts.
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Dec 16, 2015 02:01
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Looks like PredictIt clarified that where not specified, both debates count.quote:This market does not specify or require the question to be asked during either the first tier or "undercard" debate. A qualifying question asked during either debate is sufficient to cause the market to resolve as Yes. huge pile of hamburger has issued a correction as of 02:04 on Dec 16, 2015 |
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Dec 16, 2015 02:02
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Vox Nihili posted:It won't count. "The debate" has always been used to reference the big debate. all of the other current debate markets - speaking time, viewership, etc - specifically say "first tier," so I think predictit will have their hands tied to make it resolve Yes e; welp thethreeman has issued a correction as of 02:06 on Dec 16, 2015 |
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Dec 16, 2015 02:02
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nachos posted:They've used "first-tier debate" before whereas this is just "the debate" They answered it "This market does not specify or require the question to be asked during either the first tier or "undercard" debate. A qualifying question asked during either debate is sufficient to cause the market to resolve as Yes."
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Dec 16, 2015 02:04
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Ha, crazy. Congrats to those who got in on it.
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Dec 16, 2015 02:13
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There are actually still about 1200 shares of Trump Support Yes still on the market if anyone has money free.
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Dec 16, 2015 02:16
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Parakeet vs. Phone posted:There are actually still about 1200 shares of Trump Support Yes still on the market if anyone has money free. StevePerry has issued a correction as of 02:33 on Dec 16, 2015 |
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Dec 16, 2015 02:30
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Anyone have talk time totals at this point?
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Dec 16, 2015 03:38
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Vox Nihili posted:Anyone have talk time totals at this point? Does Carson's coughing count?
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Dec 16, 2015 03:42
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