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Bought a ton of Rubio right as it closed. C'mon CNN, show the RNC just how much you love them.
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Dec 16, 2015 04:02
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Vox Nihili posted:Bought a ton of Rubio right as it closed. C'mon CNN, show the RNC just how much you love them. Me too. Bet big on Rubio yes and Trump no.
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Dec 16, 2015 04:02
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Hahaha apparently Rubio said the debate was in front of 15 millions people during one of his answers and the CNN Nielsen rating poll is going insane Ugh I wish I had more money to put on this, I'm basically betting all my BIDENNO winnings on 20+ million viewers. tinstaach has issued a correction as of 04:08 on Dec 16, 2015 |
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Dec 16, 2015 04:06
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Trump went down somewhat against a third party run just now. edit haha goddamn, that was fast. a dead cat bounce is likely if someone is into that i say swears online has issued a correction as of 05:00 on Dec 16, 2015 |
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Dec 16, 2015 04:58
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Holy crap, Trump just said he wouldn't run third party and the No shares for a Trump 3rd party run hit 99c in about a minute flat.
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Dec 16, 2015 04:58
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Nows the time to get some cheap yes because lol if you don't think he'll reverse- I'm sorry- 'clarify' that position tomorrow
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Dec 16, 2015 05:02
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I lost my rear end on the debate speaking time market.
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Dec 16, 2015 05:03
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EngineerSean posted:I lost my rear end on the debate speaking time market. Same, yuuuuuge losses. Seemed like Cruz was the only one who actually wanted to talk at length (other than the lower-tier candidates that no one wanted to hear). Jeb and Trump seemed content to mostly sit it out when they weren't slapfighting, and Rubio just gave his canned statements.
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Dec 16, 2015 05:12
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I couldn't bet in the speaking time market because all my money is still tied up in the "Will You Support Trump" contract. I got greedy and didn't want to get out at less than 99, but it was so weird to see it keep fluctuating between 93 and 96, even when it was over.
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Dec 16, 2015 05:19
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thethreeman posted:
 the prices were insane to start, YESes added up to like 150
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Dec 16, 2015 05:26
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this CNN debate speaking market is blowing my mind. How is trump YES going for 60c? He's obviously the favorite, and he dominated the last CNN debate, but he was upper-middle of the pack in both of the two most recent ones. I know FBN had said they were going to try to even out speaking time, but even if CNN doesn't do that, these prices are still crazy. I'll hold until kasich interrupts a couple times early or something, then try to sell them all.
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Vox Nihili posted:Same, yuuuuuge losses. Seemed like Cruz was the only one who actually wanted to talk at length (other than the lower-tier candidates that no one wanted to hear). Jeb and Trump seemed content to mostly sit it out when they weren't slapfighting, and Rubio just gave his canned statements. Alright for some reason they make it difficult to search closed markets and I'm on my phone. Who ended up speaking the most? I'm almost certain Carson spoke the least.
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Dec 16, 2015 05:32
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Where were the speaking times? Usually they've been released by now. I have no dog in that fight, though, since it's too random
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Dec 16, 2015 05:32
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Aliquid posted:Where were the speaking times? Usually they've been released by now. I have no dog in that fight, though, since it's too random Cruz: 15:58 Rubio: 13:33 Trump: 13:25 Christie: 10:45 Carson: 10:27 Bush: 10:13 Paul: 9:46 Fiorina: 9:32 Kasich: 9:00
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Dec 16, 2015 05:35
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That's pretty even, I'd expect Cruzmentum to continue the next week or two. I was in a slightly profitable position on all my Rubio shares across all markets, and I liquidated him tonight. I may be on the Trump/Cruz crazy train, ugh
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Dec 16, 2015 05:42
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Platystemon posted:Cruz: 15:58 I wanted to but Trump.No as well. AND YOU ALL CALLED ME CRAZY AFTER THAT FIRST DEBATE 
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Dec 16, 2015 05:44
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The previous two time winners have been Cruz and Kasich, have they not? Maybe I missed one in-between.
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Dec 16, 2015 06:11
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New market: "Will Ben Carson become a third party presidential candidate?" If you're thinking it's simply not in the cards for this guy, you're among the majority. Currently at 2 cents.
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Dec 16, 2015 15:46
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Jim Webb's got that independent vote on lock
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Dec 16, 2015 15:51
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Aliquid posted:The previous two time winners have been Cruz and Kasich, have they not? Maybe I missed one in-between. Trump twice, Cruz once (now twice), Fiorina once.
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Dec 16, 2015 16:50
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The Sanders polling at 30% market is overreacting to a weak poll that shows him at 26%. People always put so much weight into the latest poll. He's been above 30% continuously since Biden ceased to be a polling factor and it seems like a safe bet in the low 80's. http://politickernj.com/2015/12/monmouth-national-poll-clinton-holds-59-26-lead-over-sanders/ https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1555/Will-primary-polling-give-Sanders-at-least-30-on-December-31#data Yeah, I know, don't bet on polls, but we all do.
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Dec 16, 2015 18:16
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Looks like 18 million people watched the debate, and I'm almost bust now because of it
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Dec 16, 2015 19:12
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Wanamingo posted:Looks like 18 million people watched the debate, and I'm almost bust now because of it I was considering putting a no bet on that inflated top number (22+ million, was it?), but instead decided to go with the "predictable" speaking market. gently caress.
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Dec 16, 2015 19:14
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poo poo good thing those dumbos were giving me NOs on less than 16 million for .65 yesterday
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Dec 16, 2015 19:15
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Vox Nihili posted:I was considering putting a no bet on that inflated top number (22+ million, was it?), but instead decided to go with the "predictable" speaking market. gently caress. I lost a few bucks there, too. Considering going the George Costanza route with the rest of my money and betting against what I think will happen
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Dec 16, 2015 19:23
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Did Jeb! just drop out? He just shot up to 85 in the next to drop out market, but drop out before Iowa hasn't moved
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Dec 16, 2015 19:26
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The medical tax thing hosed me pretty good, luckily I made a chunk back with predictit's wording error on the supporting trump question last night. I miss the BIDENNO days.
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Dec 16, 2015 19:26
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Did Jeb! just drop out? He just shot up to 85 in the next to drop out market, but drop out before Iowa hasn't moved
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Dec 16, 2015 19:36
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I'm trying to sell shares and I get a warning say I have insufficient funds to make the trade. The deal goes through, I lose shares, and money doesn't show up in my "available" area. What's going on? Am I just not understanding linked markets? Here: 
i say swears online has issued a correction as of 19:42 on Dec 16, 2015 |
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Dec 16, 2015 19:38
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Sounds like that trade increased your amount at risk in a linked market.
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Dec 16, 2015 19:43
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Yep. Looks like I need funds available to sell out. Each sale of shares at a pretty good profit increases my gain/loss tab and decreases my available funds. I'm still bad at linked markets. edit in other news i was sick of looking at that distorted dropout market so i bought exactly one share of Jeb YES to swing it back to reality i say swears online has issued a correction as of 19:53 on Dec 16, 2015 |
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Dec 16, 2015 19:50
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Those Carson Iowa shares are down to 1-2c. I'm averaging down. I ought to dip into Carson runner-up to hedge tho.
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Dec 16, 2015 20:41
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Shear Modulus posted:Those Carson Iowa shares are down to 1-2c. I'm averaging down.
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Dec 16, 2015 20:46
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Shear Modulus posted:Those Carson Iowa shares are down to 1-2c. I'm averaging down. That's because he's in free fall. He is just like one of those 2012 flashes in the pan. With the exception of Gingrich they never came back once they went into free fall.
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Dec 16, 2015 21:05
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Ugh, I got killed on the Medical Device Tax market. I didn't read the language close enough, but I also didn't think they'd get that poo poo into the CR-spending bill.
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Dec 16, 2015 21:27
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e: wrong thread
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Dec 16, 2015 21:39
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Zeta Taskforce posted:That's because he's in free fall. He is just like one of those 2012 flashes in the pan. With the exception of Gingrich they never came back once they went into free fall. It's a lottery ticket but I think there are nonzero odds for even the slightest of dead-cat bounces. If I'm wrong I'm out like 2 bucks.
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Dec 16, 2015 21:48
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I'm enjoying the post-debate polling markets. YESes aren't actually terrible deals in either of them - you can buy them all for <110 before you get to the low volume/sub-5c contracts. I'm doing some momentum betting on Trump NOs for 60c in the "decline most" market and some Cruz YESes for 38c in the "increase most" market, assuming we'll get another poll or two before the debate even factors in... Also - it's hard to compare, since IA was a month earlier in 2012, but does anyone who paid attention back then remember what happened to the # of polls released around the holidays? I assume pollsters take vacations too, and that more respondents would ignore the calls. So the last 2-3 polls and any polls we get in the next week should be much more predictive of the month-end numbers than in most months?
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Dec 16, 2015 22:39
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Trump YES on biggest decline is a good buy imo since he'd been putting up stellar numbers recently and polls may just regress to the mean regardless of debate performance.
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Dec 16, 2015 23:15
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Aliquid posted:Trump YES on biggest decline is a good buy imo since he'd been putting up stellar numbers recently and polls may just regress to the mean regardless of debate performance. the decline will begin any day now For more substance, I think if we add up Trump + Carson + Cruz + Rand's polling numbers (or non-establishment candidates) over the past three or four months has been 60%. Trump now has 33 which is over half, but Carson is on the way down and is about to be as irrelevant as anyone but Trump/Cruz/Jeb/Rubio. Therefore, if we divide that 60% only between Trump and Cruz, Cruz still needs to overtake Trump and poll up toward 35 before Trump loses more than Carson is going to.
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Dec 16, 2015 23:47
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Also is PredictIt really going to send me a 1099 even though I haven't cashed out? That's loving dumb especially since they take a fee for withdrawals.
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Dec 16, 2015 23:50
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