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Zeta Taskforce posted:The Sanders polling at 30% market is overreacting to a weak poll that shows him at 26%. People always put so much weight into the latest poll. He's been above 30% continuously since Biden ceased to be a polling factor and it seems like a safe bet in the low 80's. You could bet on Bernie at prices in the 80s or you could bet against Bush for prices in the 60s. History has shown that betting against Jeb! provides a solid return, and he'd still have to raise his average by about 1% for the market to resolve as YES.
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Dec 17, 2015 00:28
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Gyges posted:You could bet on Bernie at prices in the 80s or you could bet against Bush for prices in the 60s. History has shown that betting against Jeb! provides a solid return, and he'd still have to raise his average by about 1% for the market to resolve as YES. ...which is within the margin of error, and virtually all of the polls currently up will be wiped by then. Man, why did I ever put money on that stuff?!
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Dec 17, 2015 00:58
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At least you're not betting on the RPREZ.DROPOUT4 market. At one point I was going to, but then I realized the goal is to make money.
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Dec 17, 2015 01:00
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Vox Nihili posted:...which is within the margin of error, and virtually all of the polls currently up will be wiped by then. While true, I feel comfortable putting $20 on JEB! being a failure.
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Dec 17, 2015 01:27
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Peachstapler posted:At least you're not betting on the RPREZ.DROPOUT4 market. I have a lot of NO bets going on, which is good if one of the ones who should drop out like Pataki, Huckabee or Santorum actually does then all my Carsons, Chrisies, Bushs, Rubios and Pauls etc will pay out and it will add up. Linked markets mean that I don't have a lot of money tied up. But every time one of them farts the market panics and I log on and see huge losses It was probably obvious to everyone except me, but last night I realized that Graham will never drop out for as long as Trump is in the race. Being a candidate is the only reason the Sunday morning talk shows still call him and he's going to use every chance he gets to call Trumps dumb ideas dumb.
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Dec 17, 2015 01:57
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Speaking of dropouts, more speculation on Huckabee from a guy who interviewed him:Andrew Kaczynski posted:@BuzzFeedAndrew 19m19 minutes ago Though apparently huck said he wasn't ready for the field to narrow during the interview quote:Earlier in the interview, Huckabee was asked if he was ready for the field to narrow down so voters could coalesce around fewer candidates, to which he responded “absolutely not.”
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Dec 17, 2015 02:06
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Peachstapler posted:At least you're not betting on the RPREZ.DROPOUT4 market. Actually Rand No is a keystone of my current "strategy." Thank god they let him into that debate.
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Dec 17, 2015 02:28
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I don't see why anyone would drop out now instead of waiting until Iowa. The super losers campaigns aren't going to be unable to limp along any worse than they are now and the regular losers still have enough cash in the bank to last at least that long. And they all know Iowa is crazy town and they could conceivably turn it around a week out from the caucus. Especially Huckabee and Santorum.
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Dec 17, 2015 06:13
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nachos posted:The medical tax thing hosed me pretty good, luckily I made a chunk back with predictit's wording error on the supporting trump question last night. I miss the BIDENNO days. I've been spoiled too. I made $800 on Biden almost instantly, and since then I've only been able to grind out $200. I make smart low risk NO best, and then I get the Biden sweats and go and recklessly bet on something risky. Something stupid will happen again.
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Dec 17, 2015 07:35
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Low and slow like a pork butt.
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Dec 17, 2015 08:03
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I've been particularly risky (see my flailing on the last page) but I have had only two setbacks this year after starting with $70 seed in July: -50% on Greece leaving the Euro and -20% on Paul Ryan being Speaker. Everything else I've won, but only the Greek Referendum and Biden not running have been true winners for me. I stay diverse and collect off small sales. Worth $230 right now. Low and slow like a pork butt. i say swears online has issued a correction as of 19:17 on Dec 17, 2015 |
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Dec 17, 2015 08:47
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VVV It really is that easy. People motivated by ideology just suck so badly on these sites.
i say swears online has issued a correction as of 19:16 on Dec 17, 2015 |
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Dec 17, 2015 08:51
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Those of you in the US are so limited by the 4500 max and will have so many more different markets to bet on than you have available $ that by far the most +EV play is to scrape up the max amount you've got and deposit it ASAP. In the general election you will have a large fraction of 50 state markets + the national markets to bet on at the same time. At 850 each you could easily need to tie up 40k for best results just with one account (your wife should play too!) which means you need to somehow run it up before then. It's possible to do but you need to have the money available to sink into a whole lot of ultra low risk, low reward markets. Betfair does not have this problem and so those of us on there can move a lot slower, but if you're in the US you simply have to cap out your investment ASAP. It's like an IRA that returns 500-1000% but only if you max it on day 1.
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Dec 17, 2015 19:00
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For the second time in as many days there is another flash Dr. Carson crash going on. It went up to 50 and had gone back down to 29. The RNOM dropout market is the most hair trigger market I have ever seen
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Dec 18, 2015 20:01
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Friend Ben is down to 6% in the latest PPP national poll. He's going to drop out after Iowa right?
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Dec 18, 2015 21:26
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nachos posted:Friend Ben is down to 6% in the latest PPP national poll. He's going to drop out after Iowa right? He was never trying to win, just to scam money and sell books. Who knows when he'll drop out?
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Dec 18, 2015 22:17
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How can we turn this Bernie scandal into easy money on PredictIt? He has started polling under 30, will this latest disaster ensure he dives down? Bernie NO at poll over 30 is currently 36 cents a pop.
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Dec 18, 2015 22:22
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pathetic little tramp posted:How can we turn this Bernie scandal into easy money on PredictIt? He has started polling under 30, will this latest disaster ensure he dives down? Bernie NO at poll over 30 is currently 36 cents a pop. I sold my Bernie YES and switched sides. I think this is likely seeing how there are now 2 soft polls even before this came out
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Dec 18, 2015 22:30
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pathetic little tramp posted:How can we turn this Bernie scandal into easy money on PredictIt? He has started polling under 30, will this latest disaster ensure he dives down? Bernie NO at poll over 30 is currently 36 cents a pop. I would say it's likely to reduce his actual election numbers in Iowa and NH, rather than affecting polls coming out right now.
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Dec 18, 2015 23:12
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Hooray, the random crapshoot I put down on Obama's Gallup average payed out. Shame I wasn't able to bet on Carson being the biggest loser of the debate, I wanted to yesterday when it was at 50 cents but didn't have any money. I think I'll go ahead and dump my available funds into the lowest tier for the ABC debate ratings and hope I do better than I did with the CNN debate.
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Dec 18, 2015 23:21
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fishmech posted:I would say it's likely to reduce his actual election numbers in Iowa and NH, rather than affecting polls coming out right now. I disagree. A couple days ago the Monmouth poll looked like an outlier. But now with the ABC poll it looks like the real outlier is the NBC poll that had him at 37, and right now that is the only thing that is propping him above 30. Not saying its a sure thing, but it looks pretty likely for trading in the low 40's
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Dec 18, 2015 23:37
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fishmech posted:I would say it's likely to reduce his actual election numbers in Iowa and NH, rather than affecting polls coming out right now. Hillary in Iowa is one of the few places PredictIt is clearly better to bet on. Betfair has a ton of action available but all of it is at 88-90. You can easily max out all $850 on PI before you get that high and your cost average will be 83-84. If you don't want to risk the GOP side that's your Bet of the Month and given you have to leverage every single day to get a bankroll going it's almost a must take. I'm being nice to goons because PI isn't super worth my while, but if it's still at those prices next week it will tempt me enough to deposit and all of it will be gone.
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Dec 18, 2015 23:40
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I disagree. A couple days ago the Monmouth poll looked like an outlier. But now with the ABC poll it looks like the real outlier is the NBC poll that had him at 37, and right now that is the only thing that is propping him above 30. Not saying its a sure thing, but it looks pretty likely for trading in the low 40's Yeah but that's stuff that was already happening before this happened - and this isn't likely to change who'll poll favorably for him. What it is going do, the lack of access to the voter database for an extended time, is cripple get out the vote efforts and lead to lower caucus and primary results.
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Dec 18, 2015 23:45
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fishmech posted:Yeah but that's stuff that was already happening before this happened - and this isn't likely to change who'll poll favorably for him. What it is going do, the lack of access to the voter database for an extended time, is cripple get out the vote efforts and lead to lower caucus and primary results. For that matter, anyone who is planning on voting for him (and I place myself in that category) is going to anyway and does not need to be reminded by Bernie headquarters. I am only looking at the odds of him being above 30 at the end of the month nationwide and this doesn't help the odds of someone telling a pollster on the phone that they will vote for him. This is a reasonably safe outcome that can be purchased pretty cheaply.
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Dec 19, 2015 00:21
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Vox Nihili posted:Crazy bet of the day: bought hundreds of shares of Yes for O'Malley polling @ 5% on Dec. 31. Couldn't resist at 6c a share.  well spent.
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Dec 19, 2015 00:44
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Zeta Taskforce posted:For that matter, anyone who is planning on voting for him (and I place myself in that category) is going to anyway and does not need to be reminded by Bernie headquarters. I am only looking at the odds of him being above 30 at the end of the month nationwide and this doesn't help the odds of someone telling a pollster on the phone that they will vote for him. This is a reasonably safe outcome that can be purchased pretty cheaply. You're forgetting that the Iowa caucus stuff is much more complicated then just going to a polling place or filling out an absentee ballot and you're done. In the past couple of election years, candidates with working get out the vote measures have over-performed against candidates with lovely ones, due to its weird rules.
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Dec 19, 2015 00:51
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fishmech posted:You're forgetting that the Iowa caucus stuff is much more complicated then just going to a polling place or filling out an absentee ballot and you're done. In the past couple of election years, candidates with working get out the vote measures have over-performed against candidates with lovely ones, due to its weird rules. I don't remember this actually being a thing when comparing Iowa turnouts with other states. That is, Iowa vote shares are mostly in line with Iowa polling; the exceptions are mostly on the GOP side where flavors of the month do overperform, but there I think it's more along the lines of the polls coming too late to capture the full impact of a surge, similar to Hillary in NH in 2008.
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Dec 19, 2015 11:41
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Can't believe they're paying out 13 cents on the dollar for Hillary. It's such a lock!
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Dec 19, 2015 16:38
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New poll for Bernie puts him at 31.
platzapS has issued a correction as of 20:19 on Dec 19, 2015 |
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Dec 19, 2015 20:15
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What's everybody's opinion on the ABC debate speaking time market? Hillary seems way overpriced at 80 cents, so I went ahead and put down a whopping $5 on Sanders. e: I just now realized it would have been cheaper and (technically) safer to bet against Hillary rather than for Sanders. Oh well
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Dec 20, 2015 00:24
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Wanamingo posted:What's everybody's opinion on the ABC debate speaking time market? Hillary seems way overpriced at 80 cents, so I went ahead and put down a whopping $5 on Sanders.
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Dec 20, 2015 00:34
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Peachstapler posted:The media frenzy over this data breach is making it hard to gauge what's going to happen tonight. Conventional wisdom is it'll be a Clinton-Sanders arguefest, but I'm living dangerously --- bought $5 in O'Malley. Hey, stranger things have happened. I was also thinking about throwing down a few bucks on them not mentioning gun control, but decided against it. I did find the rules for that market pretty funny, though. quote:During the presidential debate conducted by ABC on December 19, 2015, a moderator or candidate will utter the exact phrase "gun control." The two words must be uttered intelligibly, completely, consecutively, and imparting the phrase's usual meaning.
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Dec 20, 2015 00:41
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Dammit, Martha Raddatz. You cost me $1.25.
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Dec 20, 2015 02:51
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Just doubled my tiny little investment on penny trading O'Malley speaking time. Nice tip.
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Dec 20, 2015 03:02
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Hillary has the speaking time in the bag. I loved watching the price swings when Bernie got a bit of a head start.
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Dec 20, 2015 03:25
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watwat posted:Hillary has the speaking time in the bag. I loved watching the price swings when Bernie got a bit of a head start. 
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Dec 20, 2015 03:26
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Dec 20, 2015 03:28
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Dec 20, 2015 05:19
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Lol I put like 5 bucks on Sanders winning speaking time because gently caress it, it's 5 bucks. How much did you guys spend?
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Dec 20, 2015 05:29
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a cop posted:Lol I put like 5 bucks on Sanders winning speaking time because gently caress it, it's 5 bucks. How much did you guys spend? I originally just bet $5, and then I put in another 10 after he took the early lead Not exactly breaking the bank here, but still
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Dec 20, 2015 05:45
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