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"Who cares what a bunch of corn shuckers think? Iowa, they're all losers in Iowa." - how Donald Trump will explain a third place finish in Iowa
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Dec 19, 2015 20:41
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| # ? Jun 11, 2024 07:49 |
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Trump needs a top 3 finish in Iowa or the fun ride is over.
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Dec 19, 2015 20:42
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still a lot of time for random poo poo to happen obviously, feeling like the threadgeist is heading toward trump not winning iowa though, the articles about trump's organization seem to have offered persuasive anecdotes to supplement the arguments that he'll underperform his polling numbers it'll be interesting to see if polling changes move in the same direction as the differential between the final poll averages and the ultimate vote, and then to see how predictive late polling movement was, if anything can be gleaned from the noisy one-election sample and then to see where the lines go in new hampshire, and then after that to compare final polling averages with results. to analyze
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Dec 19, 2015 20:46
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isn't trump's entire shtick based on him being a winner? he's dead in the water if he doesn't finish first. people hate a loser.
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Dec 19, 2015 20:47
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Money solves a lot of problems, but not all of them. What I'm saying is he should put Iowa volunteers on his payroll and dish out absurd amounts of money to them in order to get people to caucus for him there.
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Dec 19, 2015 20:47
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Peachstapler posted:Yeah but what about my 4-stroke Johnson outboard? Hey if your Johnson only needs 4 strokes maybe you should lay off the ethanol a little. uncurable mlady posted:isn't trump's entire shtick based on him being a winner? he's dead in the water if he doesn't finish first. people hate a loser. Nah, they don't hate losers if they can find an excuse for why they lost, because if someone beat you with substance without style that means it wasn't honorable and you get to have a mulligan. It's been 150 years for some folks. FAUXTON fucked around with this message at 20:52 on Dec 19, 2015 |
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Dec 19, 2015 20:48
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Montasque posted:Trump needs a top 3 finish in Iowa or the fun ride is over. Does anyone threaten to bump him out? Cruz is first. Is Carson still pulling enough? Who else has been putting in work in Iowa?
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Dec 19, 2015 20:48
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^rubio's been sitting around 12.5% for more than a month which puts him pretty close to half of trump and cruz' current averages. even assuming rubio keeps campaigning with the intensity of a nineteenth century candidate he could be close enough to trump's averages to pull out ahead if trump loses a lot of his votes in the poll -> vote conversion. i have a hard time seeing carson still placing in the top three though, he's lost more than half of his support since the start of november and he's now below rubio http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html he's whined his way through enough poo poo that you would've thought would've made him lose support that i wouldn't want to totally write him off but it'd definitely take some of the shine off oystertoadfish fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Dec 19, 2015 |
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Dec 19, 2015 20:48
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His schtick is that he's an outsider who says stuff that the other guy won't. The gently caress you Im a winner persona is part of that, but his campaign doesnt come to pieces if he does reasonably well in Iowa but doesn't win it.
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Dec 19, 2015 20:48
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uncurable mlady posted:isn't trump's entire shtick based on him being a winner? he's dead in the water if he doesn't finish first. people hate a loser. This. He's winning now because his polls are winning because the polls say he's winning because.... He's a never ending cycle that can only be stopped with the primaries. The real story is how will the GOP try and gently caress up Cruz?
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Dec 19, 2015 20:49
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Yeah, but outside of Rubio, Friend Ben (who has dropped 15% in one month) and Cruz nobody else is topping 5% currently (and yes, I know Iowans can be capricious and break for a crazy like Santorum at the last day). It's hard to imagine Trump doing worse than third especially if Cruz spends the next month making GBS threads all over Rubio for not hating immigrants enough.
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Dec 19, 2015 20:49
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Montasque posted:
Ohmygod the schadenfreude I might just die of it.
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Dec 19, 2015 20:49
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Maarek posted:His schtick is that he's an outsider who says stuff that the other guy won't. The gently caress you Im a winner persona is part of that, but his campaign doesnt come to pieces if he does reasonably well in Iowa but doesn't win it. what if trump comes in behind jeb? lol
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Dec 19, 2015 20:50
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uncurable mlady posted:what if trump comes in behind jeb? lol Trump has been coming in jeb's behind for a while now
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Dec 19, 2015 20:53
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On the other hand, doesn't Trump do well even if you screen the polls for likely caucus goers?
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Dec 19, 2015 20:54
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Imagine Right To Rise PAC people just straight showing up to the Iowa precincts offering bundles of cash to anyone willing to caucus for Jeb!
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Dec 19, 2015 20:55
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Montasque posted:
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Dec 19, 2015 20:55
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AARP LARPer fucked around with this message at 21:29 on Jan 22, 2016 |
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Dec 19, 2015 21:01
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Boosted_C5 posted:My F-150 is only 10 years old, but our household income is safely in the 95th percentile now. They realize how much idiot truck-lovers are willing to pay and price accordingly.
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Dec 19, 2015 21:02
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fishmech posted:Imagine Right To Rise PAC people just straight showing up to the Iowa precincts offering bundles of cash to anyone willing to caucus for Jeb! that would probably be the best use for jebs money seeing how traditional campaign spending has done nothing except make his media people very happy
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Dec 19, 2015 21:08
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Now I might be wrong but hasn't Trump actually been behind in Iowa polls before? And he's always been pointing to his number 1 standing in national polls as evidence to him being a winner. Won't be just do the same if he doesn't win iowa?
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Dec 19, 2015 21:09
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http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/gop-trump-putin-216949 politico article about how horrified the GOP is at the Trump-Putin love. pretty funny quote:Trump's warm embrace of the Russian president has shocked and alarmed the Republican establishment. There's no secret about why Trump has psychologically tethered himself to Putin, whose bombast rivals that of the U.S. billionaire businessman and whose own strongman reputation reinforces Trump's. But as the United States and its allies try to beat back Russia's intrusions into Ukraine and Syria, Trump has ruffled countless feathers by cozying up to the Russian leader.  shocking, appalling and disgusting
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Dec 19, 2015 21:10
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Montasque posted:
GET THE FIRST TWO EPISODES OF THE EPIC RACE WARS SERIES FOR FREE
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Dec 19, 2015 21:12
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The RNC clearly has no idea what their base thinks about Putin--or anything else for that matter, other than god and guns.
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Dec 19, 2015 21:16
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Joementum posted:Those predictions were all from like August. Done again today they'd probably rate Bush a bit lower, though likely not much, and Cruz and Christie higher. They reevaluate the odds fairly frequently, most recently they were betting on who's next to drop out. Here are their totally subjective, not even a little scientific, odds for the nomination from November 9th 
Squalid fucked around with this message at 21:32 on Dec 19, 2015 |
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Dec 19, 2015 21:17
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/gop-trump-putin-216949 Trump is emerging as the pragmatist candidate in the GOP race.
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Dec 19, 2015 21:23
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Well, I was waiting for the thing Trump would say after the debate to control the media again, and completely missed it. It is the Putin thing.
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Dec 19, 2015 21:42
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/gop-trump-putin-216949 Romney hates him? I’m sold.
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Dec 19, 2015 21:43
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Squalid posted:They reevaluate the odds fairly frequently, most recently they were betting on who's next to drop out. Here are their totally subjective, not even a little scientific, odds for the nomination from November 9th With the proviso that, at that time, Kasich was polling in NH where Christie is now, those numbers seem reasonable.
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Dec 19, 2015 21:50
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Whiskey Sours posted:"Who cares what a bunch of corn shuckers think? Iowa, they're all losers in Iowa." Probably, but it's not like he's running a significantly better campaign in the other primary states. If Trump fails to win Iowa it's because his campaign isn't really a new, unknown force in politics and the general rules that govern how these things work are still in place, which means he's also going to lose in NH and SC and everywhere else.
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Dec 19, 2015 21:53
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Squalid posted:They reevaluate the odds fairly frequently, most recently they were betting on who's next to drop out. Here are their totally subjective, not even a little scientific, odds for the nomination from November 9th In the end it's going to turn out that their odds were less predictive than if they just gave every candidate 100/n (where n=total candidates who ever appeared at the grown up debate table). And then we'll get to hear that the problem wasn't with their models! The problem was that reality failed to fit their models!
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Dec 19, 2015 21:56
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Joementum posted:Probably, but it's not like he's running a significantly better campaign in the other primary states. If Trump fails to win Iowa it's because his campaign isn't really a new, unknown force in politics and the general rules that govern how these things work are still in place, which means he's also going to lose in NH and SC and everywhere else. Iowa is certainly a harder hurdle than other states. But yes the question always was will these people even vote.
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Dec 19, 2015 21:57
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/gop-trump-putin-216949 Former top Romney adviser Stuart Stevens told POLITICO: He's a seriously damaged individual who is deeply insecure and needs attention and praise and the source doesn't matter. Wait, that's my old boss, I mean, yeah, they're exactly the same.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:01
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If Trump loses Iowa, it will not turn away his rabid base. They will find an excuse and that will explain it. I no longer think Trump is in this to win it (I have went back and forth this entire time on if he really wanted to win). I now think Trump is in this to be kingmaker. He wants to be the one to make the real decision. He tells his people who to support and he still wins. This is why I think Cruz is in the best position.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:01
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Subvisual Haze posted:In the end it's going to turn out that their odds were less predictive than if they just gave every candidate 100/n (where n=total candidates who ever appeared at the grown up debate table). That isn't a model for the eight hundredth time They don't do a model for primaries, ever
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Dec 19, 2015 22:02
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Joementum posted:Probably, but it's not like he's running a significantly better campaign in the other primary states. If Trump fails to win Iowa it's because his campaign isn't really a new, unknown force in politics and the general rules that govern how these things work are still in place, which means he's also going to lose in NH and SC and everywhere else. Then can we expect the RNC to pivot to ratfucking Cruz at this point? If Trump's fate is sealed, why not go after the real problem.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:03
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Trump will probably do lovely in Iowa and will accuse the Iowa Republican party of fraud because how could he not be be first and his crazy supporters will think it is a giant conspiracy and the whole thing will burn to the ground.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:03
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radical meme posted:Then can we expect the RNC to pivot to ratfucking Cruz at this point? If Trump's fate is sealed, why not go after the real problem. If they're perfectly rational, they should be doing that, but they often aren't.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:05
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memy posted:That isn't a model for the eight hundredth time Nate Silver is famous for being the nerd with magic math skills who can predict things accurately. If all of his predictions turn out to be comically wrong, where does that leave him relative to every other hack pundit out there.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:06
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radical meme posted:Then can we expect the RNC to pivot to ratfucking Cruz at this point? If Donald "We need global warming" Trump's fate is sealed, why not go after the real problem. I don't think the RNC has any desire to ratfuck Cruz, they seem to think the best case is for it to roll into Cruz vs Rubio for the big stage. Teabaggers get their guy, they get their establishment guy, it all looks very fair, all that.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:08
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