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Subvisual Haze posted:In the end it's going to turn out that their odds were less predictive than if they just gave every candidate 100/n (where n=total candidates who ever appeared at the grown up debate table). But there were no models for these predictions, these numbers were basically scribbled onto a napkin and posted along with the transcripts from an open ended discussion. They aren't even pretending these numbers are more serious than what anybody here has to say.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:12
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Tatum Girlparts posted:I don't think the RNC has any desire to ratfuck Cruz, they seem to think the best case is for it to roll into Cruz vs Rubio for the big stage. Teabaggers get their guy, they get their establishment guy, it all looks very fair, all that. So you're saying, Jeb! has a chance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMRrNY0pxfM
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Dec 19, 2015 22:16
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Tatum Girlparts posted:I don't think the RNC has any desire to ratfuck Cruz, they seem to think the best case is for it to roll into Cruz vs Rubio for the big stage. Teabaggers get their guy, they get their establishment guy, it all looks very fair, all that. I don't think it that they party has no desire to ratfuck Cruz because seriously, everyone except his own reflection despises and loathes the junior uncurable mlady posted:isn't trump's entire shtick based on him being a winner? he's dead in the water if he doesn't finish first. people hate a loser. That's a lot of it, but he can survive a poor Iowa performance by throwing a gigantic screaming tantrum that it only happened due to RNC malfeasance/the party "not being treating him fairly," as he's already whined about more than once. Done right, this will keep his supporters wanting at least one more hit before they either give up or
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Dec 19, 2015 22:18
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Suddenly our desire to bomb Agrabah becomes clear
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Dec 19, 2015 22:19
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OctoberBlues posted:Trump will probably do lovely in Iowa and will accuse the Iowa Republican party of fraud because how could he not be be first and his crazy supporters will think it is a giant conspiracy and the whole thing will burn to the ground. pulling a bernie
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Dec 19, 2015 22:27
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Subvisual Haze posted:Nate Silver is famous for being the nerd with magic math skills who can predict things accurately. If all of his predictions turn out to be comically wrong, where does that leave him relative to every other hack pundit out there. These predictions aren't supposed to be better than any other hack's, which is probably why they were buried at the bottom of an article about who was more likely to win a debate rather than put anywhere where someone might mistake them for something serious. I think you're smart enough to distinguish between evidence based predictions with clearly stated error and uncertainty and the general impressions of a slightly tipsy geek. The one prediction Nate Silver has made so far has been that Jeb will lose.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:35
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thethreeman posted:pulling a bernie This doesn't sound like Bernie at all, actually. Maybe some of the crazy supporters
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Dec 19, 2015 22:44
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Squalid posted:I think you're smart enough to distinguish between evidence based predictions with clearly stated error and uncertainty and the general impressions of a slightly tipsy geek. That's a ........bold prediction in this thread.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:45
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Squalid posted:These predictions aren't supposed to be better than any other hack's, which is probably why they were buried at the bottom of an article about who was more likely to win a debate rather than put anywhere where someone might mistake them for something serious. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-phony-and-loser-nate-silver-cant-even-see-donald-trump-is-a-winner-what-a-joke/ Remember when Nate Silver role-played a strawman Trump supporter and then accused his own strawman of using strawman arguments? Silver has become emotionally invested in the idea that Trump cannot win, and it has broken something in his head.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:45
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Subvisual Haze posted:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-phony-and-loser-nate-silver-cant-even-see-donald-trump-is-a-winner-what-a-joke/ Trump has broken a lot of people, on both sides of the aisle, this election cycle.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:51
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Subvisual Haze posted:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-phony-and-loser-nate-silver-cant-even-see-donald-trump-is-a-winner-what-a-joke/ .......no, because the other people in that chat weren't nate silver? they were different people.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:52
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Rubio and Trump seem to have similar ground games... They either know something we don't, or they are going to get blown out hard by Cruz/Jeb/Christie who can actually turn their voters out by using traditional methods.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:57
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No shut up Nate's gone insane and holed up in his shack in the woods talking to rocks he's named Trump because he said 'no matter how insane his populist wave gets he won't win because these people don't show up for elections'.
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Dec 19, 2015 22:58
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Well I think Nate Silver has converted to radical Islam in hopes of doing 9/11 times four thousand on president-elect Trump!
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Dec 19, 2015 23:00
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Montasque posted:Rubio and Trump seem to have similar ground games... They either know something we don't, or they are going to get blown out hard by Cruz/Jeb/Christie who can actually turn their voters out by using traditional methods. I don't think even 100% turnout among Jeb! voters would be enough to give him a good showing.
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Dec 19, 2015 23:01
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Yeah in a two way race even if Trump gets 30% and Jeb 100 Trump still wins. Cruz has the best shot at taking Iowa because he has both the support and the ground game.
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Dec 19, 2015 23:03
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Nessus posted:Well I think Nate Silver has converted to radical Islam in hopes of doing 9/11 times four thousand on president-elect Trump! Lindsay was right, they are planning the next 9/11 right now
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Dec 19, 2015 23:05
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Subvisual Haze posted:Silver has become emotionally invested in the idea that Trump cannot win, and it has broken something in his head. Even if that's true he has steadily increased his odds on a trump win, as you can see from the two 538 odds sheets posted. Lately he's predicted Trump's poll numbers should be expected to stay steady for the near future, so long as his media coverage stays high. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/
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Dec 19, 2015 23:06
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awesmoe posted:.......no, because the other people in that chat weren't nate silver? they were different people. poo poo, my bad. I thought the first comment was Nate talking. The article still feels a little sad and desperate and Jeb!-like to me though.
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Dec 19, 2015 23:09
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radical meme posted:Trump has broken a lot of people, on both sides of the aisle, this election cycle. Someone check on Joe, he posted the other day that Bush could win this thing and I'm worried about him 
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Dec 19, 2015 23:09
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 Didn't get to watch Trump's poo poo show today but here's the highlight reel thanks to Jenna Johnson from the Washington Post: - 1,200 people today in Grand Rapids. - Dissed Jeb for low energy, low poll numbers. - Thinks his opponents are jealous of his Putin love. Wants to work with Russia to knock out ISIS. - Trump insulted the NYT's for dissing his Iowa ground game. Says the full power of his ground game will be on display on Feb1st - Called the Des Moines Register STUPID and said they are biased, and their poll is garbage. - Said Ted Cruz is nice, but copies him. - Trump ended with defending Bernie vs Hillary. He says Hillary is a snake... with no energy. - He exited to "It's the Most Wonderful Time Of the Year"
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Dec 19, 2015 23:15
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Montasque posted:
i dont think i can trust a site that has an offering for a FREE copy of RACE WARS, a “A top-notch epic series that mirrors today’s reality"
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Dec 19, 2015 23:34
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now we have the benefit of distance, what the hell happened to walker does it all just come down to running out of money?
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Dec 19, 2015 23:43
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Peel posted:now we have the benefit of distance, what the hell happened to walker He thought he was inevitable and unstoppable and his ego was huge. His campaign's burn rate was no where near supportable levels. He vastly overestimated his support among the GOP voters due to his off-presidential year election victories in Wisconsin.
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Dec 19, 2015 23:48
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Peel posted:now we have the benefit of distance, what the hell happened to walker Walker got torpedoed by Jeb entering the race and had all his donors and media attention stolen from under him. He was a legit threat until that point. I think the worst mistake he made all campaign was assuming Jeb was a thing that would stay solid and dropping out early.
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Dec 19, 2015 23:48
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Walker was spending money like it was the last weeks of the race before Iowa back in like September, wasn't he?
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Dec 19, 2015 23:50
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What would trump pick for his three wishes?
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Dec 19, 2015 23:52
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Yes, Walker hired a huge campaign team and ran out of money. Also he basically presented a 1850s labour platform without even bothering to sugar coat it. His campaign expenditure would have killed him eventually, but his votes bottomed out independently of that because he turned out to be a tone-deaf enemy of the Republican voter, who, despite his ideological biases, is still a working man.
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Dec 19, 2015 23:56
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Donald Trump Campaign Lags in Mobilizing Iowa Caucus Voters http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/20/u...&smtyp=cur&_r=0 edit; whoops posted already my bad. A Neurotic Jew fucked around with this message at 00:02 on Dec 20, 2015 |
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Dec 19, 2015 23:57
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Mitt Romney posted:He vastly overestimated his support among the GOP voters due to his off-presidential year election victories in Wisconsin. Also, the very first look that many voters ever got of him (his introduction at the first debate) was, literally, this: 
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Dec 20, 2015 00:14
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Mitt Romney posted:He thought he was inevitable and unstoppable and his ego was huge. His campaign's burn rate was no where near supportable levels. Plus, as Powered Descent has already pointed out more concisely, he had all the charm, charisma, and personal appeal of 200 lbs of mashed potatoes stuffed into a cheap suit and fed Koch brothers talking points.
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Dec 20, 2015 00:37
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Joementum posted:Those predictions were all from like August. Done again today they'd probably rate Bush a bit lower, though likely not much, and Cruz and Christie higher. It really seems like you have blinders on regarding Rubio, and have for a while now. Subvisual Haze posted:This chart reads like a computer trying to understand love. Scotty and JEB! have zero natural charisma. You could give them all the money and organization in the world and they still couldn't inspire their way out of a paper bag. Charisma hasn't been as big a factor in prior nominations as this one. Especially the most recent nomination. Platystemon posted:See? Republicans are right. We don’t need to get money out of politics. Money ain’t worth poo poo. You may want to wait until the voting starts to say that. Subvisual Haze posted:http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-phony-and-loser-nate-silver-cant-even-see-donald-trump-is-a-winner-what-a-joke/ All the characters were played by different people.
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Dec 20, 2015 00:44
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Nonsense posted:
Quoting this for posterity after Rubio wins the nom. radical meme posted:From the same article: I've been saying for the last two months that Trump's weakness is that he can get thousands to show up on a weeknight for what is essentially a block party where you can beat the poo poo out of anyone holding a sign you disagree with, but how many of them are going to be going into a voting booth in the middle of a workday? Montasque posted:Jeb: I just gotta get this off my chest... Donald Trump is a jerk! *gasp*
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Dec 20, 2015 00:46
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Jewel Repetition posted:It really seems like you have blinders on regarding Rubio, and have for a while now. I've said several times that his lack of endorsements and fundraising suggests that Republican party players know something about him we don't. But he still has a very good chance of winning the nomination.
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Dec 20, 2015 00:49
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Anyway, since November, Rubio's odds dropped steadily, Cruz surged insanely, and Trump has held steady.
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Dec 20, 2015 00:53
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Joementum posted:I've said several times that his lack of endorsements and fundraising suggests that Republican party players know something about him we don't. Nothings come from the whispers of an affair and possible illegitimate kids, assuming there's any truth behind those.
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Dec 20, 2015 00:57
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Jewel Repetition posted:Anyway, since November, Rubio's odds dropped steadily, Cruz surged insanely, and Trump has held steady. I forgot the link, dammit http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/
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Dec 20, 2015 01:01
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steinrokkan posted:Yes, Walker hired a huge campaign team and ran out of money. Also he basically presented a 1850s labour platform without even bothering to sugar coat it. His campaign expenditure would have killed him eventually, but his votes bottomed out independently of that because he turned out to be a tone-deaf enemy of the Republican voter, who, despite his ideological biases, is still a working man. I like to think it was less that and more that he looks the Kochs stitched together two completely different people down the middle and shoved the abomination out on national stage. I mean I know "visuals" is a dumb reason but I do wonder how many people had only heard of Walker as an abstract name and instead found out he looked like a guy who was having a stroke every minute of every day.
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Dec 20, 2015 01:07
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Walker was the only candidate capable of disgusting me more than Cruz.
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Dec 20, 2015 01:15
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Trump has already called Iowa voters losers. When he loses Iowa, it will just be, "see, I told you they were losers", and no on will care.
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Dec 20, 2015 01:23
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