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Hey, I'm a little confused about the ABC Democratic debate bump market right now. Everyone seems to be going in on Bernie taking it, but unless I'm missing something, it looks like all the polls that have been conducted have gotten added to the RCP average, and O'Malley's got the biggest increase since Dec. 19 (and even if the oldest (ABC and Monmouth) polls get dropped by the time the market closes on Jan. 2, I think Martin would be on top). Can someone explain this? Is everyone just confident about RCP dropping latest PPP poll? (Yeah, I know, never bet on polls, but I kind of slipped...)
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Dec 27, 2015 00:36
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| # ? May 14, 2024 13:38 |
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Remember that many of the people betting on things are, shall we say, ideology based rather than reality based. You can make good money betting against them a lot of the time.
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Dec 27, 2015 00:41
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Yeah, that was kind of my thought going into it, especially once Bernie started skyrocketing past 80, but given that things never bounced back, I've been getting more and more concerned that I'm just missing something.
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Dec 27, 2015 00:56
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I love this site. Really scratchin that Vegas itch.
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Dec 27, 2015 01:39
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Figured it out. "Polling performance for each candidate will be calculated as his or her share of the nomination preference of polled voters at 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on January 2, 2016 (excluding polls whose surveys were completed by the end of day of the debate), minus his or her share at 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on December 19, 2015." drat. Read the rules, indeed.
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Dec 27, 2015 01:49
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Suckthemonkey posted:Hey, I'm a little confused about the ABC Democratic debate bump market right now. Everyone seems to be going in on Bernie taking it, but unless I'm missing something, it looks like all the polls that have been conducted have gotten added to the RCP average, and O'Malley's got the biggest increase since Dec. 19 (and even if the oldest (ABC and Monmouth) polls get dropped by the time the market closes on Jan. 2, I think Martin would be on top). The debate market rules have changed a couple of times, but its generally the same as the last round of debates, if you were around. Essentially they take the average of ONLY the new polls since the debate, minus the overall average the day of the debate. That means that when the debate occurred, the averages were Clinton 55.9, Sanders 30.8, O'Malley 3.7. Three new polls have come out since then. They are the Quinnipiac, Rassmusen, and CNN polls. Those polls only, since they were conducted after the debate, give a new average of Clinton 52.3, Sanders 31.3, and O'Malley 4.0. That means that as of right now the overall change is Clinton -3.6, Sanders +0.5, and O'Malley +0.3, putting Sanders in the lead. Polls dropping from this market don't matter. Only added polls. I haven't figured out why Bern isn't in the high 90s. Maybe people think polls will be added? Maybe they don't understand the rules? Not sure. For what its worth, I am maxed out on Bernie Yes shares there as I don't believe any new polls will come out this week. efb: Well looks like you got it while I was typing. I'll say you can often outsmart other people, just read the rules carefully. Some of the previous Republican debate questions were main debate only, whole others that didn't explicitly say counted for both the main and undercard debates. People freaked out since they didn't read the rules. huge pile of hamburger has issued a correction as of 01:53 on Dec 27, 2015 |
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Dec 27, 2015 01:51
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ALL IN ON CRUZ FOR RNOM YOLO
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Dec 27, 2015 18:01
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Apparently Trump has a hotel set to open in DC in 2016, could the Trump campaign be a publicity stunt?? https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/digger/wp/2014/07/23/trumps-begin-work-on-200-million-washington-hotel/ Last time around, Trump dropped out at the onset of the TV shooting season for The Apprentice and acknowledged that he was in fact ending his campaign for the private sector. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/may/16/donald-trump-us-presidential-race Either way, riding the YES.TRUMP.INDY.2016 wave to Iowa/high-$0.30s, baby. a cop posted:I love this site. Really scratchin that Vegas itch. It owns.
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Dec 27, 2015 20:08
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If he somehow wins the presidency, would there be any legal problems with running a venture like that at the same time? I know Carter stuck his peanut farm in a blind trust (that ended up really mismanaged) during his presidency, but I don't know if he had to do that or if he just wanted to.
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Dec 27, 2015 23:11
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Whole lot of new markets for 2016: Next Republican to Drop Out Will Turkey Invoke Article 4 Syrian Refugee Vetting Will McConnell Resign Will Sanctuary Cities lose funding Puerto Rico Bankruptcy Woman on the $10 Bill Will Putin Stay in Power Minimum Wage Hike North Korea H-Bomb (they fixed the language in this boooo)
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Dec 28, 2015 18:53
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Hillary over 55 This is an intriguing NO that is priced at 40. I'm not throwing much at it because it is pure speculation if RCP will drop polls or not, but if the Monmouth and ABC polls drop, and based on their age there is a better than even chance they will, it will be a nice payoff.
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Dec 28, 2015 19:54
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Necc0 posted:Whole lot of new markets for 2016: Friend Ben is has an unusually high valuation in the dropout market.
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Dec 28, 2015 20:42
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Jewel Repetition posted:Friend Ben is has an unusually high valuation in the dropout market. So does our friend Rand
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Dec 28, 2015 20:50
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Zeta Taskforce posted:So does our friend Rand I think Rand will stick around to NH (where he has just hired some people and has infrastructure) and therefore survive beyond the post-Iowa dropouts (Huck, Carson, Santorum). Input, anyone?
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Dec 28, 2015 21:28
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Vox Nihili posted:I think Rand will stick around to NH (where he has just hired some people and has infrastructure) and therefore survive beyond the post-Iowa dropouts (Huck, Carson, Santorum). Input, anyone? His dad stuck it out to June last few times out, so I'm sure he'll try to do the same, even if he'd be doing it with 1/10 the support.
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Dec 28, 2015 21:51
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That McConnel resigning market is lol. We need to get more tea partiers to join so really exploit it though.
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Dec 28, 2015 22:02
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Welp, here's hoping Santorum takes a hint and slides out of the race soon.
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Dec 28, 2015 22:09
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Hillary over 55 I've been trolling that market for about 2 weeks now. Everyone is dead set one way or the other. I'm with you, pretty much a coin toss. I unloaded my position a while ago and took up some token No shares for fun. Personally I can see the drop happening.
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Dec 28, 2015 22:54
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watwat posted:I've been trolling that market for about 2 weeks now. Everyone is dead set one way or the other. I'm with you, pretty much a coin toss. I unloaded my position a while ago and took up some token No shares for fun. Personally I can see the drop happening. This looks like a good opportunity. I'm grabbing some No based on past practices.
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Dec 28, 2015 23:11
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Vox Nihili posted:I think Rand will stick around to NH (where he has just hired some people and has infrastructure) and therefore survive beyond the post-Iowa dropouts (Huck, Carson, Santorum). Input, anyone? He's on record as saying he won't do the bad debate because that kills a campaign. If he winds up missing the main event I can't see him staying in past the 15th.
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Dec 28, 2015 23:12
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Adar posted:He's on record as saying he won't do the bad debate because that kills a campaign. If he winds up missing the main event I can't see him staying in past the 15th. Assuming Santorum and Huck poll 1% in Iowa and drop out, Graham out, and Pataki likely to remain in the weeds, will there be a need to have a kiddie table debate? I'm not saying he stays in until June, but I don't see him dropping out anytime soon either.
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Dec 28, 2015 23:30
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Adar posted:He's on record as saying he won't do the bad debate because that kills a campaign. If he winds up missing the main event I can't see him staying in past the 15th. I really doubt he will drop that quickly. There was a big bubble when the media broke a story about how he would drop out if he missed a debate, but his campaign has insisted that there's nothing to that. He's also holding dozens of NH events and making ad buys. Why drop out before any of that has a chance to come to fruition? He's also an ideological evangelist more than a politician--I don't think a 0% chance of winning will be enough to force him out just yet.
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Dec 28, 2015 23:35
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Hillary over 55 I went ahead and bought the YES at 65, thanks for the heads up.
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Dec 29, 2015 01:07
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EngineerSean posted:I went ahead and bought the YES at 65, thanks for the heads up. Looks like we're on the opposite ends of the table here. FYI, 2 days ago RCP dropped 2 polls that are 4 days older than the 2 polls everyone is focused on here. Obviously, anything could happen, but I like my odds.
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Dec 29, 2015 02:55
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let's bet on polls, or more specifically when RCP will add and drop polls
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Dec 29, 2015 05:46
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Seems like someone who works for RCP could make a killing on this site..
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Dec 29, 2015 05:53
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a cop posted:Seems like someone who works for RCP could make a killing on this site.. Yeah, we discussed it upthread when the sports betting scandal broke a couple months ago. It's too easy.
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Dec 29, 2015 05:59
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Aliquid posted:let's bet on polls, or more specifically when RCP will add and drop polls This is almost 100% what you're betting on when you bet on polls at PredictIt, FYI
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Dec 29, 2015 05:59
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a cop posted:Seems like someone who works for RCP could make a killing on this site.. I was wondering that earlier too. Are there pseudo insider trading laws for things like this?
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Dec 29, 2015 06:00
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Aliquid posted:let's bet on polls, or more specifically when RCP will add and drop polls Pretty much. It's either stuff that is nearly 100% safe where you will make a couple percent, a coin flip, or lottery ticket long shots. This one is a coin flip so anything can happen but with coin flips you just need to be right more than half the time and never bet the entire farm.
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Dec 29, 2015 06:43
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fishmech posted:His dad stuck it out to June last few times out, so I'm sure he'll try to do the same, even if he'd be doing it with 1/10 the support. Rand has a quiet feud with his father, too. I don’t know if he’ll make it to June, but he ain’t dropping in January.
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Dec 29, 2015 07:09
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Why are you all betting on polls?
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Dec 29, 2015 09:13
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Stereotype posted:Why are you all betting on polls? Personal failings.
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Dec 29, 2015 09:36
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Betting on stuff, in general, is fun.
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Dec 29, 2015 09:41
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it's just something to do
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Dec 29, 2015 09:50
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There's a good reason to bet on polls at PI. Like I said upthread -Adar posted:Those of you in the US are so limited by the 4500 max and will have so many more different markets to bet on than you have available $ that by far the most +EV play is to scrape up the max amount you've got and deposit it ASAP. In the general election you will have a large fraction of 50 state markets + the national markets to bet on at the same time. At 850 each you could easily need to tie up 40k for best results just with one account (your wife should play too!) which means you need to somehow run it up before then. It's possible to do but you need to have the money available to sink into a whole lot of ultra low risk, low reward markets. If you put X down on a poll where the true odds are exactly 50/50, it's still +EV to make the bet because it gives you a higher bankroll for excellent bets later. You're basically the house in this situation. As long as you have enough money to keep throwing at it after losses you have to do whatever it takes to get a larger amount of money on the site. God American attitudes on betting are retarded.
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Dec 29, 2015 16:01
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Adar posted:There's a good reason to bet on polls at PI. Like I said upthread - thethreeman posted:love this analogy, but unlike sports betting, the availability of pol data is way behind even where sports data was back then, and (this is a guess) predicting outcomes based on that data is much more difficult than sports - not a closed system. the real risk in political betting is getting overconfident unless you've been tracking rcp's adds/drops for months and know their patterns, how can you have any idea if it's 50/50 - you're just picking a bet you like
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Dec 29, 2015 16:45
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Weird things going on in the Clinton 55 market. One of the comments said a poll was dropped on the republican side but not the dem side. I don't see any polls dropped anywhere, but the price of my NOs is 80. I'm happy with that, I'm selling. Good luck to whoever buys. I hope you can squeeze the last 20 cents out.
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Dec 29, 2015 17:15
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Weird things going on in the Clinton 55 market. One of the comments said a poll was dropped on the republican side but not the dem side. I don't see any polls dropped anywhere, but the price of my NOs is 80. I'm happy with that, I'm selling. Good luck to whoever buys. I hope you can squeeze the last 20 cents out. Monmouth dropped as expected, Clinton at 54.7. Should have bought more No.
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Dec 29, 2015 18:12
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thethreeman posted:unless you've been tracking rcp's adds/drops for months and know their patterns, how can you have any idea if it's 50/50 - you're just picking a bet you like I've got no idea how to break 50 since I don't bother with PI, but there are only two possibilities for a market like that: 1)nobody has any edge and are just betting on numbers = it's fair by definition (this includes any combination of getting X/100 on an X/100 shot; what I mean is you're getting a fair price on the possibility of increasing your bankroll) 2)it's possible to get an edge by waiting long enough and predicting the direction of the next poll = go get 'em This is the only way to make really big money with the constraints you're under. Betfair is easier but welp 'murica.
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Dec 29, 2015 18:49
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