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Rocks posted:Christie and Trump are the only two candidates who seem to be running like they actually WANT the job of president. And Cruz, surely.
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Jan 2, 2016 17:55
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Yeah Cruz certainly is acting like he wants it. Rubio and Jeb! might as well be Gingrich2012.
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Jan 2, 2016 17:59
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Sir Tonk posted:Yeah Cruz certainly is acting like he wants it.
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Jan 2, 2016 18:01
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Rubio is still the favorite on most prediction markets and bookie sites. I get why, but as time marches on and Rubio's campaign still lingers in lazy land the arguments for his 'favorite' status are becoming harder to argue.
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Jan 2, 2016 18:11
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Sir Tonk posted:Yeah Cruz certainly is acting like he wants it. But they didn't promise a moon base by 2020
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Jan 2, 2016 18:11
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Montasque posted:Rubio is still the favorite on most prediction markets and bookie sites. I kinda get why, but as time marches on and Rubio's campaign still lingers in lazy land the arguments for his 'favorite' status are becoming harder to argue. If someone's really confident that Rubio will be the nominee (I'm definitely not), the place to bet would be Rubio winning New Hampshire, simply because A. its odds are lower than Rubio winning the nomination, and B. Rubio's not winning the nomination if he loses NH. B. is Rubio's huge glaring problem that his campaign is desperate to ignore and pretend doesn't exist.
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Jan 2, 2016 18:13
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Sir Tonk posted:She probably provided the video for them! We need a Congressional investigation in to TrumpAdGhaziGate.
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Jan 2, 2016 18:14
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Patter Song posted:If someone's really confident that Rubio will be the nominee (I'm definitely not), the place to bet would be Rubio winning New Hampshire, simply because A. its odds are lower than Rubio winning the nomination, and B. Rubio's not winning the nomination if he loses NH. Also similar to Jeb! you could argue when the madness for started in the spring Rubio looked like a strong establishment GOP pick but over the last few months both campaigns no longer seem competitive. Trump torpedoed the Jeb! campaign and Rubio doesn't seem to be trying.
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Jan 2, 2016 18:17
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Patter Song posted:If someone's really confident that Rubio will be the nominee (I'm definitely not), the place to bet would be Rubio winning New Hampshire, simply because A. its odds are lower than Rubio winning the nomination, and B. Rubio's not winning the nomination if he loses NH. I think a lot is riding on a Trump implosion after Iowa. But even if Trump implodes Rubio has to deal with the fact that Kasich, Jeb!, and most notably Christie have been working New Hampshire a lot harder than he has. EDIT: Also judging from the whole TERRORISTS USE DONALD TRUMP VIDEO breaking story, we're going to see more Trump vs Clinton this week. That's another news cycle where the other candidates get no oxygen.
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Jan 2, 2016 18:19
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Patter Song posted:If someone's really confident that Rubio will be the nominee (I'm definitely not), the place to bet would be Rubio winning New Hampshire, simply because A. its odds are lower than Rubio winning the nomination, and B. Rubio's not winning the nomination if he loses NH. Rubio could lose both IA and NH (and SC) and still theoretically get to the nomination, but it would require Trump and Cruz to be in a fairly close fight (ideally for Rubio with Cruz getting the edge). He'd lose most of the Super Tuesday states but as long as he won a few, the bulk of the remainder of the calendar is blueish winner take all states and he'd slowly start accruing delegates while remaining mathematically viable. The problem with this strategy is a) it is almost certain Rubio would not be able to clinch the nomination without California's 172 delegates on June 7th b) no comeback this slow has ever been seriously attempted much less worked. Realistically Rubio's chances crater if he can't win one of the first three contests, but theres no way the establishment relinquishes the nomination to Trump or Cruz before it becomes a mathematic necessity. Edit: Oh and obviously Rubio is dunzo if any of the other three establishment stooges edges him out in NH.
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Jan 2, 2016 18:25
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Jan 2, 2016 18:25
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Cruz is more likely to get used tbh, nothing quite like the leader of aggressing forces literally saying this is literally a crusade against the Muslims in the name of Christ to drum up enrollment Again
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Jan 2, 2016 18:25
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Rubio's campaign just doesn't look like one that's seriously trying. Once it became clear that Jeb was a poo poo candidate and going nowhere, this last couple of months has been an golden moment for Rubio to stake out and own a position as the leading establishment candidate. You can argue that he has it by default by virtue of his polling numbers, but those numbers are small enough as to be blown away by the slightest puff of wind, and he's done nothing to define his image and positions or increase his profile during this time. Sure, blowing what campaign funds he has on ads right now might be foolish, but that doesn't mean he couldn't run some high profile events, publish the odd provocative op-ed column defining himself on an issue and getting some free media coverage to boot, or even utilize Twitter or social media more. He just looks like a guy who didn't have a plan aside from "get in race, if all others fall apart, I win!".
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Jan 2, 2016 18:27
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Zwabu posted:Rubio's campaign just doesn't look like one that's seriously trying. Once it became clear that Jeb was a poo poo candidate and going nowhere, this last couple of months has been an golden moment for Rubio to stake out and own a position as the leading establishment candidate. It makes you wonder what the gently caress he does all day, because he's not doing his job in the senate, either.
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Jan 2, 2016 18:30
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We have our second official, final fundraising total. Our official list is now Clinton 37 million, Sanders 33 million. All of the Republicans will be well short of either. Carson will probably have the highest amount unless Cruz had a really impressive last minute rush (last we heard Carson was over 23 and Cruz over 20, but that was with a week's fundraising left to go). Everyone else in the GOP should be massively trailing Carson and Cruz...Rubio will probably be in third, but with quite a bit of distance from the first two.
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Jan 2, 2016 18:31
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FlamingLiberal posted:No that would be Carson, down to suspending his campaign to do a book tour Carson is closer to Cain, they're both terrible at pretending to know anything. Rubio and Bush are like Gingrich because they're both taken seriously, but don't really seem to be trying. Evil Fluffy posted:We need a Congressional investigation in to TrumpAdGhaziGate. Someone call Trey, we've got a live one!
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Jan 2, 2016 18:31
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 look out Bibi
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Jan 2, 2016 18:39
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Zwabu posted:Rubio's campaign just doesn't look like one that's seriously trying. Once it became clear that Jeb was a poo poo candidate and going nowhere, this last couple of months has been an golden moment for Rubio to stake out and own a position as the leading establishment candidate. Rubio is still the favourite to win the establishment lane even if his laziness is borne out. The establishment lane is crowded as gently caress, but as soon as Trump or Cruz win Iowa the fear of god should shoot through everyone of their supporters and they'll have a week to consolidate around their best chance. From that point if Rubio is sitting their with the best of the rest place showing in Iowa, support will likely gravitate to him even if he sits at home watching QVC. There are only two things that could really stop Rubio, getting majorly outflanked by Christie or Bush in the three debates before New Hampshire or if Carson has enough of a pulse left to take third place from him in Iowa.
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Jan 2, 2016 18:40
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Since the consensus here is that Rubio is running a lazy campaign, what objective data do we base this on? Is it lack of campaign events in early states? Lack of a good "ground game", few ads, little staff? Or is it some combination of his dull personality and Trump sucking up all the attention? I guess my qustion is where do polital analysts find info on "ground game" operations of the various candidates to make a judgment on who is organized better?
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Jan 2, 2016 18:44
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If Trump can survive the predicted post-Iowa meltdown and stay competitive into the race I think people will be surprised by two things: 1. Trump is going to do REALLY well in North Eastern Blue states, and 2. If there is a tragedy Trump will be the one who benefits from it. In this way Trump is tracking more like an Establishment candidate than a weirdo outsider. The fact that Trump wins on national security and the economy in all of these polls should scare the establishment... That tells me that when poo poo gets real it is Trump who will pick up support not Rubio/Jeb!/Christie.
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Jan 2, 2016 18:49
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DynamicSloth posted:Rubio is still the favourite to win the establishment lane even if his laziness is borne out. The establishment lane is crowded as gently caress, but as soon as Trump or Cruz win Iowa the fear of god should shoot through everyone of their supporters and they'll have a week to consolidate around their best chance. From that point if Rubio is sitting their with the best of the rest place showing in Iowa, support will likely gravitate to him even if he sits at home watching QVC. Both Christie and Bush have zero chance of being the establishment nominee because they're horrendously unlikable turds.
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Jan 2, 2016 18:51
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Personally, I think Trump's biggest problem is going to be that he'll turn out as many or more Dems as Republicans. It could be, in my dreams, like that March Against Muslims day or whatever, where 90% of the locations only had protesters show up
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Jan 2, 2016 18:52
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Donald Trump is my favorite thing in the world right now.
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Jan 2, 2016 18:55
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Full Battle Rattle posted:It makes you wonder what the gently caress he does all day, because he's not doing his job in the senate, either. “It’s amazing,” Rubio marveled to a friend... “I can call up a lobbyist at four in the morning, and he’ll meet me anywhere with a bag of forty thousand dollars in cash.”
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Jan 2, 2016 18:56
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oh my god
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Jan 2, 2016 18:56
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Epic High Five posted:Personally, I think Trump's biggest problem is going to be that he'll turn out as many or more Dems as Republicans. The GOPe is counting on that. Rick Wilson, the anti-Trump GOP consultant who ran TRUMP CARD LLC and now running MAKE AMERICA AWESOME PAC has been bragging on twitter for the last week that Trump voters are mostly registered Democrats who are too stupid/lazy to change their party registration to vote in the primary. We do know that in the last two months the Republican party of Iowa has seen 1400 new members join their ranks. Not a huge number, but compared to the 146 new Democrats it shows that people are fired up about this primary. Is it enough to make a difference? We won't know until the votes are counted.
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Jan 2, 2016 19:02
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Montasque posted:We do know that in the last two months the Republican party of Iowa has seen 1400 new members join their ranks. Not a huge number, but compared to the 146 new Democrats it shows that people are fired up about this primary. Is it enough to make a difference? We won't know until the votes are counted. For a better comparison, between October and December 2011 there were 1,784 new registered Republicans in Iowa. https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/congress.html
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Jan 2, 2016 19:09
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McDowell posted:
Trump owns, he reminds of Putin in that he intentionally spreads conflicting talking points as way to confuse and overwhelm his opponents. Oh the irony of calling out Hillary for supporting a hawkish Pro israel policy, while he gets away with his muslim ban talking point.
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Jan 2, 2016 19:10
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A lot of the media coverage of the GOP race seems to imply that Cruz is best positioned to grab a sweeping win in the "SEC" primary of Southeastern states and grab control of the primary from there, but aside from theorycrafting, does polling bear that out? Doesn't Trump have a big lead in South Carolina and Florida polling, and is there any reason to believe he wouldn't do similarly in Georgia, Alabama etc.? Or is it just projections of how the dominoes might fall if Trump collapsed after an Iowa loss, with no objective data to support it?
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Jan 2, 2016 19:11
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Joementum posted:For a better comparison, between October and December 2011 there were 1,784 new registered Republicans in Iowa. To be fair the numbers I cited were from November 2nd to December 29th. So the numbers you posted add an extra month and the primary was earlier that year.
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Jan 2, 2016 19:12
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etalian posted:Trump owns, he reminds of Putin in that he intentionally spreads conflicting talking points as way to confuse and overwhelm his opponents. It only holds together so long as the right has a delusional love boner for Israel and cannot believe they are less than perfect ... ... 
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Jan 2, 2016 19:13
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Zwabu posted:A lot of the media coverage of the GOP race seems to imply that Cruz is best positioned to grab a sweeping win in the "SEC" primary of Southeastern states and grab control of the primary from there, but aside from theorycrafting, does polling bear that out? Doesn't Trump have a big lead in South Carolina and Florida polling, and is there any reason to believe he wouldn't do similarly in Georgia, Alabama etc.? Well the establishment is hoping that wins in the early states will deflate the Trump momentum.
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Jan 2, 2016 19:13
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DynamicSloth posted:Rubio could lose both IA and NH (and SC) and still theoretically get to the nomination, but it would require Trump and Cruz to be in a fairly close fight (ideally for Rubio with Cruz getting the edge). He'd lose most of the Super Tuesday states but as long as he won a few, the bulk of the remainder of the calendar is blueish winner take all states and he'd slowly start accruing delegates while remaining mathematically viable. So far every eventual GOP nomination winner has won at least either Iowa or NH (at least since Iowa+NH have been the first two primaries). It's a small sample size, but I'd be amazed if anyone could hang on without winning either of the first two. Guilliani showed pretty well in 2008 what happens when you ignore the first primaries, all the momentum gets sucked out of your campaign and your support craters nationally. Also, I'm not really sure attacking Trump as being disliked by the most hated assholes in the world is a winning strategy.
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Jan 2, 2016 19:14
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Montasque posted:To be fair the numbers I cited were from November 2nd to December 29th. So the numbers you posted add an extra month and the primary was earlier that year. It was the end of October report to the end of December report, so a few extra days, maybe, but not a whole month.
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Jan 2, 2016 19:15
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etalian posted:Trump owns, he reminds of Putin in that he intentionally spreads conflicting talking points as way to confuse and overwhelm his opponents. Consider this: what if Trump's muslim ban is really... an act of love?
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Jan 2, 2016 19:17
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Am I wrong or would Nate Silver be fine if he had just said "Well that's how probability works, there are outliers and sometimes the unlikely happens" instead of doubling/tripling/quadrupling down and losing his mind.
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Jan 2, 2016 19:19
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Even a Cruz win would be hilarious given his loose cannon nature and how he sabotaged GOP senate strategy just to pump up his prestige.
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Jan 2, 2016 19:19
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Tender Bender posted:Am I wrong or would Nate Silver be fine if he had just said "Well that's how probability works, there are outliers and sometimes the unlikely happens" instead of doubling/tripling/quadrupling down and losing his mind. Trump is gun control to liberals, reactions are similar.
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Jan 2, 2016 19:21
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Zwabu posted:He just looks like a guy who didn't have a plan aside from "get in race, if all others fall apart, I win!". A strategy also in use by Martin O'Malley.
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Jan 2, 2016 19:22
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Tender Bender posted:Am I wrong or would Nate Silver be fine if he had just said "Well that's how probability works, there are outliers and sometimes the unlikely happens" instead of doubling/tripling/quadrupling down and losing his mind. Well, his core argument has always been "polling at this point isn't very predictive", which is a pretty conservative and defensible position. The problem is he's tried to extend that argument to prove that Trump can't win. Dude's gotta make articles and get hits somehow. Just repeatedly posting "Everything is chaos, anybody could win" is unlikely to get many votes.
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Jan 2, 2016 19:23
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