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Misc posted:Trump polls much worse in Iowa and New Hampshire than he does nationally, and I'm starting to really doubt his ability to actually turn many of his poll supporters into likely voters. I think there's decent odds in putting some money down on TRUMP.ANYPRIMARY16.NO (currently ~.25) and pulling your money out after bad showings in Iowa and NH. I don't share your doubts about his ability to convert his supporters into voters. Maybe into caucus goers, but it's not that hard to vote in a primary. I fully expect to double my money from him winning NH. The only reason he is polling below the national average in NH is because other candidates like Christie, Kasich & Bush view NH (correctly) as their last ditch chance and have put so many resources there that they are polling above the national average. But NH will stay crowded, the establishment candidates will split the vote, and 30% will be enough for him to win. He's led every single poll without exception since July, usually by double digits. He's rarely gone below 25%. No one else has ever gone above 15% The only way Trump doesn't win is if Bush, Rubio, Christie and Kasich get together and decide which 3 will drop out and endorse the 4th. The idea that his voters won't show up is a continuum of he won't run. OK, he is running but he's going to blow himself up. He won't blow himself up, but he will fade when people see him debate. He is just a 2012 flavor of the month. Its one thing to pick on John McCain, but he went too far with the Muslim stuff. He is telling bald face lies that his supporters will see through. Along with his supporters won't show up claim, pundits say that once he loses Iowa (he probably will) then the entire winner mystique will shatter and he will go away. Polls don't matter at this point, how did president Giuliani work out? Like there is any comparison between him and the boring frowning guy who entirely ignored every state until Florida. The other thing I don't buy is the dichotomy that he will either win exactly nothing or win everything. I think he wins a bunch of early states until the field thins to him, Cruz and whatever establishment guy comes out on top, with Cruz winning the southern states and establishment guy winning most of everything else. I am on record saying that will be Christie. Rubio doesn't have the work ethic, Jeb! is Jeb!, Kasich has horrible posture and is perpetually exasperated. Carson and Fiorina have already had their boom and boomlet respectively, Paul will keep running his quixotic no chance campaign. Did I forget anyone? Oh yeah, Santorum and Huckabee. I rest my case.
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Jan 5, 2016 03:32
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NH splitting the GOPe vote between Christie, Kasich and Bush would be The Chaos Scenario
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Jan 5, 2016 08:51
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Dang, while I was not paying attention over the holidays the Rajoy No market crashed from mid-80s to mid-60s and wiped out a bunch of my unrealized gains. Really stupid move on my part. Predictit clarified the rules and said if new elections happened, the market closing would postpone to those. Shear Modulus has issued a correction as of 19:31 on Jan 5, 2016 |
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Jan 5, 2016 19:21
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FYI, North Korea probably just detonated a nuclear bomb. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35240012 https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1781/Will-North-Korea-test-a-hydrogen-bomb-before-the-end-of-2016#rules
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Jan 6, 2016 04:08
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Paper With Lines posted:FYI, North Korea probably just detonated a nuclear bomb. Still needs to be declared an H-bomb which I still think is unlikely. This may be a good time to buy. edit: I just grabbed a bunch of NO. Thanks for the heads up Necc0 has issued a correction as of 04:18 on Jan 6, 2016 |
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Jan 6, 2016 04:11
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Necc0 posted:Still needs to be declared an H-bomb which I still think is unlikely. This may be a good time to buy. This registered 5.1 on the moment‐magnitude scale, and so did the last (fission) detonation in 2013. The scale is logarithmic, but a successful hydrogen bomb ought to do better than that. Based on that, I’d buy “NO”. At the very least, I expect a correction in the other direction before the official statement, and long‐term, testing a fission device in January lowers my expectation that they’re set to test a fusion device before the end of the year. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 04:30 on Jan 6, 2016 |
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Jan 6, 2016 04:28
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"With this in mind, it is quite possible that Kim's claim could be untrue, which would come as no surprise to those familiar with the regime's saber rattling. But there is one other possibility. En route to the development of fusion weapons, some countries develop so-called "boosted" weapons, which use a small amount of fusion to boost the fission process, causing more large atoms to fission and thus releasing more energy -- initially, perhaps a weapon of 50 kilotons or so. Because some fusion is involved in such a weapon, Kim may be claiming that he has achieved a hydrogen bomb when in practice he only has a boosted weapon." Would a "boosted" nuke qualify???
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Jan 6, 2016 04:29
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I doubt it as the CTBTO absolutely wouldn't be one to mince words and the contract is dependent on them ruling in the affirmative.
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Jan 6, 2016 04:33
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PredictIt’s founder famously attempted to design an A‐bomb as an undergrad. They’re going to go with the strict technical definition, under which boosted weapons are not H‐bombs.
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Jan 6, 2016 04:35
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FWIW: NKorea claiming hbomb http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2016/01/06/50/0401000000AEN20160106005000315F.html edit: i pulled that from the comments, so I don't know if it is a good source or not.
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Jan 6, 2016 04:36
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Just bought a thousand yes shares, let the panic commence.
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Jan 6, 2016 04:37
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Vox Nihili posted:Just bought a thousand yes shares, let the panic commence. have fun waiting out the CTBTO announcement
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Jan 6, 2016 04:40
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http://abcnews.go.com/International/earthquake-strikes-north-korea-nuclear-test-site/story?id=36109939
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Jan 6, 2016 04:41
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Vox, I see you commenting in the ... comments, I guess. Lol @ "gloriousleaderhasdoneit." gloriousleaderhasdoneit • 10 minutes ago http://english.yonhapnews.co.k... N. Korea announces that it has conducted H-bomb test Allah Akbar Borthers, I knew they could do it.
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Jan 6, 2016 04:45
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:have fun waiting out the CTBTO announcement this risk does not feel worth 13c, but definitely not taking the other side here follow-on effects: this could be big for trump like other recent national security events? you could argue it hurts him after his nuclear triad ignorance, but i'm not sure R primary voters are that nuanced. maybe negative for bernie?
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Jan 6, 2016 04:46
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thethreeman posted:this risk does not feel worth 13c, but definitely not taking the other side here Trump: I've been saying for YEARS. For YEARS. Like 2-3-15 YEARS we have to take that chin -- Korean bastard out. Gotta nuke em' before they nuke us. Megyn Kelly: Mr. Trump, you've never mentioned North Korea in any of your campaign material. Trump: What the gently caress did you just loving say about me, you little bitch? I’ll have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and I’ve been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I’m the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the gently caress out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my loving words. You think you can get away with saying that poo poo to me over the Internet? Think again, fucker. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You’re loving dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that’s just with my bare hands. Not only am I extensively trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable rear end off the face of the continent, you little poo poo. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your loving tongue. But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will poo poo fury all over you and you will drown in it. You’re loving dead, kiddo.
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Jan 6, 2016 04:48
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:have fun waiting out the CTBTO announcement Here's the twitter feed to follow, I guess: https://twitter.com/ctbto_alerts edit: Oh man choppy markets are fun, too bad I just tied up most of my cash a few minutes earlier!   Fuschia tude has issued a correction as of 05:15 on Jan 6, 2016 |
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Jan 6, 2016 05:06
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North Korea is claiming h-bomb, I say ride it until the high 90's and sell in case it turns out to be a dud. EDIT: Or whatever the peak ends up being JosefStalinator has issued a correction as of 05:50 on Jan 6, 2016 |
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Jan 6, 2016 05:46
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Peaked around 87, now choppy at 72 or so. Still have some yes shares left myself.
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Jan 6, 2016 06:08
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If it was a successful hydrogen bomb, it would be the smallest H‐bomb ever detonated by at least a factor of four, so far as I can tell. If, however, it’s a fizzle, it’s in much the same category as India’s Shakti I. The bomb was supposedly capable of 200 kt, actually registered 45 kt, but India said “oh yeah we meant to do that”. I can’t find an official statement from the CTBTO declaring India’s Shakti I test to be of a hydrogen bomb. On a non‐authoritative page they have this: quote:India claimed that its Shakti 1 test in 1998 was a successful reduced-yield thermonuclear bomb, though many outside experts remain skeptical. That’s not a smoking gun, but I wouldn’t expect them to publish it if the CTBTO itself took a hard stance that it was a hydrogen bomb. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 06:39 on Jan 6, 2016 |
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Jan 6, 2016 06:33
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Platystemon posted:If it was a successful hydrogen bomb, it would be the smallest H‐bomb ever detonated by at least a factor of four, so far as I can tell. I've been reading Wikipedia, looks like the first fusion device was 225kt. But I don't know enough to say whether there's any physical reason it couldn't be smaller than that. "The "George" shot of Operation Greenhouse of 9 May 1951 tested the basic concept for the first time on a very small scale. As the first successful (uncontrolled) release of nuclear fusion energy, which made up a small fraction of the 225kt total yield. . ."
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Jan 6, 2016 06:53
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Price is now whipsawing back and forth. Who knows where it will end up.
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Jan 6, 2016 07:23
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drat, I had so much money on them doing this last year. I ended up breaking even but still, way to be a few days late Kim 
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Jan 6, 2016 09:04
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Vox Nihili posted:Price is now whipsawing back and forth. Who knows where it will end up. Yeah this is some Bidenesque volatility. I'm gonna be buying up anytime NO drops below 50.
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Jan 6, 2016 17:08
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WebTV.UN.org for live discussion on the device test. UN taking it pretty seriously. Edit: over now. Follow the CTBTO Twitter + newsroom announcements if you want to be on the ground floor. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 18:57 on Jan 6, 2016 |
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Jan 6, 2016 18:50
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South Korea is saying they got readings of a device around 10-15 kt which is an order of magnitude off from what would be a definitely hydrogen bomb. Only path left for Yes is that the test was a fizzle and the CTBTO is able to analyze the aftermath. My money is on N. Korea lying. In other news check out the comments if you want to have a good time 
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Jan 6, 2016 19:08
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Sure you could buy NO but there's still 359 days left in the contract. Do y'all expect a substantial jump from the current 58-cents per NO share after they announce this test was some dumb bullshit?
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Jan 6, 2016 19:16
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Peachstapler posted:Sure you could buy NO but there's still 359 days left in the contract. Do y'all expect a substantial jump from the current 58-cents per NO share after they announce this test was some dumb bullshit? It's probably a good idea to stay out entirely, but the market is pretty swingy so I could see it flip back to like 90c if they announce that it was not a hydrogen bomb.
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Jan 6, 2016 19:32
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Vox Nihili posted:It's probably a good idea to stay out entirely, but the market is pretty swingy so I could see it flip back to like 90c if they announce that it was not a hydrogen bomb. Exactly. Once the hype dies down I expect this market to return to it's normal 10/90 and I'll sell then.
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Jan 6, 2016 19:55
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White House said they doubt it's an H-bomb, big swing downward, but looks like a counter-swing is forming around 25c. Volatility is back, baby. Edit: volatility might be dead actually. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 20:30 on Jan 6, 2016 |
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Jan 6, 2016 19:59
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That DPRK nuke market is extremely skewed toward the NO's. I'm glad I stuck it out. I got in at around 50 cents last night, nearly panicked, then bought in for more more for a total average of 31c. Sold at 69c just now.
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Jan 6, 2016 21:01
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I wonder how much of that volatility is people looking at the nuke split, thinking "those rubes, didn't anyone read today's headline?  " and then going all in on YES
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Jan 6, 2016 21:05
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My Patakipennies just hit my account. Which means it's time for 
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Jan 6, 2016 21:05
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Flavahbeast posted:I wonder how much of that volatility is people looking at the nuke split, thinking "those rubes, didn't anyone read today's headline? Judging by the comments I'm gonna guess a lot of it
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Jan 6, 2016 21:07
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Peachstapler posted:My Patakipennies just hit my account. Which means it's time for Rand NO has been very profitable so far.
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Jan 6, 2016 21:30
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Man that nuke market was fun. I got in on NO at sub-30c and sold above 60c. Managed to do it twice during the swings. I shoulda gone harder but hey I still made 25 bucks on some bullshit.
A Time To Chill has issued a correction as of 21:46 on Jan 6, 2016 |
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Jan 6, 2016 21:44
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So I'm tired of screwing around with 30 bucks after I cashed out my biden winnings, should I dump 500 more dollars into this so I can make real cash?
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Jan 6, 2016 21:46
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pathetic little tramp posted:So I'm tired of screwing around with 30 bucks after I cashed out my biden winnings, should I dump 500 more dollars into this so I can make real cash? 
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Jan 6, 2016 21:47
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A Time To Chill posted:Man that nuke market was fun. I got in on NO at sub-30c and sold above 60c. Managed to do it twice during the swings. I shoulda gone harder but hey I still made 25 bucks on some bullshit. I only bought in at the low 50s. I told myself I should have stayed up last night to wait for it to crash further but I was too tired 
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Jan 6, 2016 22:23
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Necc0 posted:I only bought in at the low 50s. I told myself I should have stayed up last night to wait for it to crash further but I was too tired I put in an offer for 0.29 then went to bed assuming the swings were over. But lol no it went through and the shares were worth 0.60 when I woke up.
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Jan 6, 2016 22:36
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