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sullat
Jan 9, 2012

Sono posted:

The people who believe the world would devolve into an orgy of cannibal horsefuckers without a belief in God are the people who would be cannibal horsefuckers if they weren't afraid of divine punishment.

As an added bonus, the party that hates the estate tax, hates the IRS, and considers tax cheating moral isn't okay with any of that if it infringes on their sacred interpretation of a civil contract.

Too be fair, the Republican party is in two camps over this issue; the camp that hates the IRS, hates the estate tax, would be perfectly OK with cannibal horsefuckery if it meant they got a tax benefit out of it. In addition to the other benefits, of course.

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etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Do It Once Right posted:

I'm going to laugh my rear end off when the furor over whether Ted Cruz is a natural born American citizen dies down, and is immediately replaced by the realization that Cruz is a natural born Canadian citizen.

I like the cruel twist of fate in which is was forced to post his birth certificate online.

I hope Obama was laughing his rear end off after hearing what happened to Cruz.

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

:lol: All Trump said regarding Cruz's Canadian citizenship was "I dunno," and Cruz is collapsing everywhere now except "Are the people of Iowa really that stupid?!"

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



Phlegmish posted:

You had your chance, old man. You had a good run last time for someone who wants to make Mad Max a reality. Now give your dumbass son some support.

I know it's perfectly consistent with his worldview, but I'm still a bit surprised.


Trump is killing it in some of these Southern states. It's obvious Trump reigns supreme in the Northeast, but I thought it would be much closer between Cruz and Trump in the heartland.

The south is an evangelical block until someone comes along who will let them Lynch people and smile of camera with it going on in the background again

SirKibbles
Feb 27, 2011

I didn't like your old red text so here's some dancing cash. :10bux:

Nonsense posted:

:lol: All Trump said regarding Cruz's Canadian citizenship was "I dunno," and Cruz is collapsing everywhere now except "Are the people of Iowa really that stupid?!"

Link? Trump is a treasure :allears:

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Nonsense posted:

:lol: All Trump said regarding Cruz's Canadian citizenship was "I dunno," and Cruz is collapsing everywhere now except "Are the people of Iowa really that stupid?!"

Yeah Trump is the master of implying things when he does a troll war.

Pillowpants
Aug 5, 2006

xbilkis posted:

Is there a point of reference for how frontrunners that ended up deflating after Iowa/NH/SC polled in Super Tuesday states? Did people like Giuliani have such a big lead in secondary primary states at this point in the race, or is there a chance for a second Trump surge even if he underperforms early?

Nationally, Huckabee started tying Guliani in eary December. By mid December Romney and McCain had tied Guliani, and by Christmas Guliani was in fourth.

Guliani had lost his polling lead in Iowa in March 07, NH by July, SC in November, Nevada by December,
In the Super Tuesday states, Guliani lost CA/FL/IL/MO in mid December, CT in November, CO/MA in July 07,.

He really never had a chance going into the first primaries.

Compared to Trump who is ahead in nh, nv, and Sc with 3.5 weeks to go

bean mom
Jan 30, 2009

Cephalocidal posted:

The only cartoon character I can think of that actually got more entertaining to watch when I discovered his VO had abhorrent personal views.

Am I missing something here? Levin is not master shake.

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

Nonsense posted:

:lol: All Trump said regarding Cruz's Canadian citizenship was "I dunno," and Cruz is collapsing everywhere now except "Are the people of Iowa really that stupid?!"

There's probably a couple of other random states that are going to pick Cruz, even though it won't matter.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ


http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/05/what-december-polls-can-tell-us-about-the-gop-nomination/

quote:

The only candidate with all #1 and #2 rankings is Donald Trump. Therefore, if 2016 were to follow the pattern of past elections, he would be the most likely nominee. After Trump comes Cruz, followed by Rubio as a long shot. Nobody else fits the pattern.

For comparison I include Hillary Clinton, this year’s overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination. This emphasizes the fact that based on polling data, Donald Trump is in as strong a position to get his party’s nomination as Hillary Clinton in 2016, George W. Bush in 2000, or Al Gore in 2000. The one case in which a lead of this size was reversed was the 2008 Democratic nomination, which very was closely fought.

Obviously, polls are not the entire story of the campaign. Unlike past nominees, Trump does not have the national party behind him. In that respect, he is emblematic of the overall weirdness of this year’s GOP primaries.

Emphasis his.

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

SirKibbles posted:

Link? Trump is a treasure :allears:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-advises-cruz-to-clarify-his-natural-born-citizenship-in-court/

Trump posted:

"I don't know and I like him a lot. And I don't like the issue. I don't like even bringing it up," Trump told Wolf Blitzer on "The Situation Room."

:allears:

Captain_Maclaine
Sep 30, 2001

Every moment that I'm alive, I pray for death!

Phlegmish posted:

Why is that, is his son not ideologically pure enough? Kind of a dick move on his part.

There's that for sure, plus I think Ron is just a lovely father (which wouldn't be surprising since I know he's a lovely person) and jealous of his son's rise to prominence.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

The concern Troll heard 'round the World.

babypolis posted:

ah yes trumps very sane foreign policy proposals, which include making mexico pay for a wall, 45% tariff on china, bombing people to get their oil, and a whole bunch of other nonsense

You know where you are? You're in the GOP primary thread baby, and compared Rubio, Jeb, Fiorina, and Christie, Trump's insane bullshit is saner than starting World War 3 over Syria, or some man made islands in the Pacific.

Everything in context.

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004




Am I reading this wrong? It seems like Hillary is in a much, much stronger position to take a her party's nom as Trump is his, but the article seems to think it's the same

William Bear
Oct 26, 2012

"That's what they all say!"

Bryter posted:

Also, like half the stage came out in favour of the gold standard at one of the Republican debates, so it's not even as if having Rand on stage to push for that insanity is particularly worthwhile to Ron.

I completely forgot this in the "weirdness" (thanks, Sam Wang!).

Was anything ever made of it? Did the media or other candidates point out the economic stupidity of some of the ideas they proposed, like commodity currency or a basket of currencies?

Boosted_C5
Feb 16, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 5 years!
Grimey Drawer
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-01-08/new-poll-shows-donald-trump-is-a-real-threat-to-hillary-clinton

Trump Could Win It All
A new survey shows a sizable number of Democrats ready to defect from Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump


US News & World Report posted:

. . . The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and "dial-test" of Trump's first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed "likely voters" (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It . . . has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent . . .

. . . Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump . . .

. . . When the firmed showed respondents the Trump ad, and assessed their responses to each moment of it, it found "the primary messages of Trump's ad resonated more than Democratic elites would hope."

About 25 percent of Democrats "agree completely" that it raises some good points, with an additional 19 percent agreeing at least "somewhat."

Mercury CEO Ron Howard, a Democrat whose firm works for candidates in both parties and corporate clients, concedes, "We expected Trump's first campaign spot to strongly appeal to Republican Trump supporters, with little impact – or in fact negative impact – on Democratic or independent voters."

He continues, "The challenge to Hillary, if Trump is the nominee and pivots to the center in the general election as a problem-solving, independent-minded, successful 'get it done' businessman is that Democrats will no longer be able to count on his personality and outrageous sound bites to disqualify him in the voters' minds."


Hahahaha. IF Trump pivots to the center? LOL. Abandon all hope

Michael Corleone
Mar 30, 2011

by VideoGames

Epic High Five posted:

Am I reading this wrong? It seems like Hillary is in a much, much stronger position to take a her party's nom as Trump is his, but the article seems to think it's the same

Same, but with W in 2000 where he had 45% to Trumps 20.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Epic High Five posted:

Am I reading this wrong? It seems like Hillary is in a much, much stronger position to take a her party's nom as Trump is his, but the article seems to think it's the same

As he says, it's based purely on polling. Bernie is beating Hillary in some NH polls, but he has no chance of winning the nomination.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

Boosted_C5 posted:

Hahahaha. IF Trump pivots to the center? LOL. Abandon all hope

I’m going to make America pretty good again.

Thump!
Nov 25, 2007

Look, fat, here's the fact, Kulak!



Zyla posted:

Am I missing something here? Levin is not master shake.

I'm hoping I'm the first to introduce you to these works of art:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYz0RaZSMsA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJuP6r8Mols
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzKPO1nPOjk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1oilMKAwoE

Patter Song
Mar 26, 2010

Hereby it is manifest that during the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that condition which is called war; and such a war as is of every man against every man.
Fun Shoe

Joementum posted:

As he says, it's based purely on polling. Bernie is beating Hillary in some NH polls, but he has no chance of winning the nomination.

The calendar is remarkably unfriendly to Bernie, even if he wins NH he has no way to capitalize on it (fitting for a socialist, I suppose). He'll get ground into the dust in SC and likely Nevada, and on Super Tuesday Bernie winning Vermont will be contrasted to him losing nearly a dozen Southern states at once.

One of the reasons I'm relatively bullish on Trump is that the calendar is actually remarkably friendly to him after IA/NH. If he can win NH (a big if) he and Cruz can basically shut out all their other rivals given that Dixie isn't very friendly to the Establishment types.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Nonsense posted:

:lol: All Trump said regarding Cruz's Canadian citizenship was "I dunno," and Cruz is collapsing everywhere now except "Are the people of Iowa really that stupid?!"

I don't know where you get Cruz taking a hit. The latest stuff coming out had him still moving up a few percentage points.

EngineerSean
Feb 9, 2004

by zen death robot

Captain_Maclaine posted:

There's that for sure, plus I think Ron is just a lovely father (which wouldn't be surprising since I know he's a lovely person) and jealous of his son's rise to prominence.

Does anyone have that fanfic where child Rand says "I love you" to Dad as he goes to sleep and his Dad lectures him on the folly of affection?

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Mr Hootington posted:

I don't know where you get Cruz taking a hit. The latest stuff coming out had him still moving up a few percentage points.

In Iowa only though. Everyone assumed Cruz couldn't win the more fiscally conservative states like NH, so in order to win this thing Cruz has to build support across the midwest and the south (where social conservatives exist in force).

quote:

Georgia - Landmark/Rosetta Stone Poll

Trump 43%
Cruz 16%
Rubio 10%
Carson 6%
Bush 4%

If Cruz's numbers are that bad across the south in general he has no hope of winning the nomination. He's looking like another Iowa flash in the pan like the GOP had in '08 with Huckabee and '12 with Santorum.

Sono
Apr 9, 2008




Epic High Five posted:

Am I reading this wrong? It seems like Hillary is in a much, much stronger position to take a her party's nom as Trump is his, but the article seems to think it's the same

I think he's missing a point with Trump and Clinton both having 20% leads. Clinton is at 50% - 30%, and even if every single undecided, O'Malley supporter, etc. starts feeling the bern, she's still tied at the worst. The Dem nomination is hers to lose. Trump's lead is 35-15. Once the Rep field starts collapsing, he could end up being passed up.

Clinton can play safe; she just needs to hold the people she has. Trump needs to pick up another 15% or find a way to keep the RNC from loving him if he ends up with a plurality, but not a majority, of delegates.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

Boosted_C5 posted:

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-01-08/new-poll-shows-donald-trump-is-a-real-threat-to-hillary-clinton

Trump Could Win It All
A new survey shows a sizable number of Democrats ready to defect from Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump




Hahahaha. IF Trump pivots to the center? LOL. Abandon all hope

There's something to this...

Hillaryis44 is now endorsing Donald Trump:

http://www.hillaryis44.org/2016/01/08/self-inflicted-the-end-of-hillary2016-the-rise-of-trump2016/

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin
Holy poo poo.

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008

I'M HAVING A HOOT EATING CORNETTE THE LONG WAY

Subvisual Haze posted:

In Iowa only though. Everyone assumed Cruz couldn't win the more fiscally conservative states like NH, so in order to win this thing Cruz has to build support across the midwest and the south (where social conservatives exist in force).


If Cruz's numbers are that bad across the south in general he has no hope of winning the nomination. He's looking like another Iowa flash in the pan like the GOP had in '08 with Huckabee and '12 with Santorum.

Is there some kind of analyst saying Cruz was going to win NH? I always remember being discussed that winners in NH were establishment types.

Cruz was always going to do well with Evangelicals and social conservatives. That is some of his bread and butter.

Regardless of Trump beating him in the south, my point still stands that he has not taken a noticeable hit in numbers because of the birth certificate. Having to stop and talk about it may hurt him, but it just seems to have hurt the RWM more.

The part I find hilarious in all of this is that Cruz would be Trump if not for Trump.

ate shit on live tv
Feb 15, 2004

by Azathoth

Patter Song posted:

One of the reasons I'm relatively bullish on Trump is that the calendar is actually remarkably friendly to him after IA/NH. If he can win NH (a big if) he and Cruz can basically shut out all their other rivals given that Dixie isn't very friendly to the Establishment types.

How is Trump winning NH a big IF? He is leading by every possible metric there.

Subvisual Haze
Nov 22, 2003

The building was on fire and it wasn't my fault.

Montasque posted:

There's something to this...

Hillaryis44 is now endorsing Donald Trump:

http://www.hillaryis44.org/2016/01/08/self-inflicted-the-end-of-hillary2016-the-rise-of-trump2016/

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

Hahaha, Oh my god it's like I fell into a timewarp to the 2008 thread. RON PAUL 08

Thump!
Nov 25, 2007

Look, fat, here's the fact, Kulak!



Montasque posted:

There's something to this...

Hillaryis44 is now endorsing Donald Trump:

http://www.hillaryis44.org/2016/01/08/self-inflicted-the-end-of-hillary2016-the-rise-of-trump2016/

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

Holy christ that is the stupidest poo poo I have ever read.

:suicide:

Boosted_C5
Feb 16, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 5 years!
Grimey Drawer
Isn't it wonderful waking up everyday and once again realizing we live in the best possible timeline???

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib

Montasque posted:

There's something to this...

Hillaryis44 is now endorsing Donald Trump:

http://www.hillaryis44.org/2016/01/08/self-inflicted-the-end-of-hillary2016-the-rise-of-trump2016/

hahahahahahahahahahahaha

Absolutely incredible

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

Subvisual Haze posted:

In Iowa only though. Everyone assumed Cruz couldn't win the more fiscally conservative states like NH, so in order to win this thing Cruz has to build support across the midwest and the south (where social conservatives exist in force).


If Cruz's numbers are that bad across the south in general he has no hope of winning the nomination. He's looking like another Iowa flash in the pan like the GOP had in '08 with Huckabee and '12 with Santorum.

Pretty much. The same idiots going on about how Trump losing Iowa would end it for him were the ones who thought he would never poll higher than 5, wait no 10, errr maybe 15, well how about 20 ...

Iowa rarely picks the republican winner, but chooses the democrat fairly often. Trump is going to have a strong 2nd in IA and then go on to take the other early states and wrap it up on ST.

Boosted_C5 posted:

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-01-08/new-poll-shows-donald-trump-is-a-real-threat-to-hillary-clinton

Trump Could Win It All
A new survey shows a sizable number of Democrats ready to defect from Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump




Hahahaha. IF Trump pivots to the center? LOL. Abandon all hope

All it's going to take is a couple more terrorist crazies and the moderates are going to flee to the right like they have in nearly every other western country.

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

Thump! posted:

Holy christ that is the stupidest poo poo I have ever read.

:suicide:

It makes a good point that HRC is hilariously bad at campaigning, which is why she is very vulnerable in general. She has a very difficult time winning elections that aren't completely handed to her.

Firebert
Aug 16, 2004
The only way Trump doesn't win New Hampshire is if he finishes 3rd (or lower) in Iowa (which is possible, but unlikely unless he completely bombs) or a bunch of establishment candidates drop out after Iowa (which will never happen).

rakovsky maybe
Nov 4, 2008

Boosted_C5 posted:

Isn't it wonderful waking up everyday and once again realizing we live in the best possible timeline???

It really is. My beltway DC reporter friend was insisting Rubio was a lock and all I could do was shake my head at the poor deluded man.

Thump!
Nov 25, 2007

Look, fat, here's the fact, Kulak!



TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:

It makes a good point that HRC is hilariously bad at campaigning, which is why she is very vulnerable in general. She has a very difficult time winning elections that aren't completely handed to her.

:agreed:

Still, the absolute pantsshitting terror of these supposed 'diehard' supporters of hers is just incredible.

Schnorkles
Apr 30, 2015

It's a little bit juvenile, but it's simple and it's timeless.

We let it be known that Schnorkles, for a snack, eats tiny pieces of shit.

You're picturing it and you're talking about it. That's a win in my book.

rakovsky maybe posted:

It really is. My beltway DC reporter friend was insisting Rubio was a lock and all I could do was shake my head at the poor deluded man.

Rubio is still probably the favorite for this, but he keeps acting like he doesn't actually want to be the nominee.

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SHY NUDIST GRRL
Feb 15, 2011

Communism will help more white people than anyone else. Any equal measures unfairly provide less to minority populations just because there's less of them. Democracy is truly the tyranny of the mob.

What is hilaryis44

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