Cingulate posted:

Don't know what this is supposed to mean - the typical measures people use here, e.g. correlation or regression R^2, are inherently standardized. Plotting a scatterplot in a roughly rectangular form is roughly equivalent to standardizing it. (If at all, people should apply other transformations, such as log transforms, more.)

quote:

The main thing is that he actually bothered to think about his dependent and independent variables for a second, and considered controlling for confounds regardless of if he liked the results or not.

quote:

He makes mistakes - often grave ones. But he does not stand out in making mistakes. He stands out in trying not to make them, and then, like any non-professional, fails a lot.

Merdifex posted:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standardized_coefficient

Some idiot who wrote for NRO didn't know what it even meant.

Merdifex posted:

Yeah, because how can facts be racist? We're just race realists here. We thus have great reason for controlling for confounds like the Black population, and not SES, education quality, or what not. Of course this proves that Blacks have a culture of violence. Witness Scott talking about this in the comments as if he's proved an inextricable connection between minority population and violence.

Merdifex posted:

Or more like he makes mistakes despite making a big show of seemingly knowing how not to make mistakes because that's what everyone in his milieu does.

Merdifex posted:

I also like how he gets a major dataset from HBD bloggers. This is the best non-academic analysis you've seen?

quote:

Given all this hoopla, I’ve tried to get to the bottom of Bayes, once and for all. Of the countless explanations on the web, ones I’ve found especially helpful include Yudkowsky’s essay, Wikipedia’s entry and shorter pieces by philosopher Curtis Brown and computers scientists Oscar Bonilla and Kalid Azad. In this post, I’ll try to explain—primarily for my own benefit—what Bayes is all about. I trust kind readers will, as usual, point out any errors.*

quote:

I am sure you guys are familiar with Dennett’s exposition of compatibilism. But has anyone read Gary Drescher “Good and Real” (and more on the fringes, Eliezer Yudkowsky http://intelligence.org/files/TDT.pdf pages 100-114)?

Nessus posted:

For a guy who doesn't read DE blogs, you sure have a lot of complex praise for a DE blogger

Cingulate posted:

If you reread what I wrote, you will understand that 1. I know what a standardized regression coefficient is, and possibly 2. why I think this is an utter non-issue.
That's what I was talking about. I can elaborate, but the basic point is that standardization is not at all the issue here. Like, not only is it of lesser importance, bringing it up is completely missing the point.
If at all, 1. raw betas (or rather, any actually applicable measure of effect size, such as, I don't know, odds ratios) are much more interesting because they'd actually tell us what we want to know (how many murders are caused by an abundance of guns), 2. everyone is already somehow standardizing, by, as I said, showing scatterplots in a roughly quadratic shape (just think of what this implies) and focusing on r and R^2. I can explain all of this in more detail if I'm too careless or confusing here.

quote:

That's actually an interesting component - Scott observes the proportion of Blacks is well correlated with the murder rate, and immediately says "this is support for the culture of violence thing". What you hear is "he's racist; he thinks black culture is violent", what I hear is "funny - he must really annoy all of his extreme 'race realist' friends, who zealously assume it's not so much culture but unchangeable genes".
Scott seems to have roughly the same perspective as Bill Cosby or John McWhorter here - that is, centrists/moderates who do their best to be hated by the left and the right.

Parallel Paraplegic posted:

Milo is freaking out on twitter because they took his verified badge for harassing people. His followers have gotten "#JeSuisMilo" up to 47k mentions, and it's trending at the top of the US... uh... charts right now.

quote:

Aspects of the neo-reactionist political project (which has been linked to Thiel) seem palpably to run along the same lines, to me: a childish vision of liberation denuded of any actual social responsibility, or any ability to think clearly about the welfare of others. Representative democracy has some problems, but to wholly reject it in favor of autocracy seems a little like the perspective of a small child unwilling to share its toys or lose its comforts. And so, we have projects like Seasteading, where you get to live basically in Waterworld and never have to do what your parents tell you to do, or Alcor, where you never have to really say goodbye to anyone you love.

Nessus posted:

For a guy who doesn't read DE blogs, you sure have a lot of complex praise for a DE blogger

Parallel Paraplegic posted:

Milo is freaking out on twitter because they took his verified badge for harassing people. His followers have gotten "#JeSuisMilo" up to 47k mentions, and it's trending at the top of the US... uh... charts right now.

Also earlier when I was thinking of a particular gay who was against gay marriage and only wanted rough manly spartan sex I think I was thinking of Milo, I know he's against gay marriage while also being gay at least. Someone called him a "gay rights activist" on twitter which made me throw up in my mouth a little I think.

Patrick Spens posted:

You are aware that words mean things, and that Alexander isn't DE right?


I'm not going to complain about making Milo's life more difficult, but what's the point of this? If he's enough of an rear end in a top hat to ban, just ban him.

Parallel Paraplegic posted:

Milo is freaking out on twitter because they took his verified badge for harassing people. His followers have gotten "#JeSuisMilo" up to 47k mentions, and it's trending at the top of the US... uh... charts right now.

Also earlier when I was thinking of a particular gay who was against gay marriage and only wanted rough manly spartan sex I think I was thinking of Milo, I know he's against gay marriage while also being gay at least. Someone called him a "gay rights activist" on twitter which made me throw up in my mouth a little I think.

Peel posted:

Don't worry, he got it back.

Merdifex posted:

Who'da thunk Jeb would make such a name of himself.

Milo and Clark and every other pantshitting right-winger on twitter are convinced that this will lead to a purge of them. DE types are certainly obsessed about purges against their oppressed low-status male selves.

The Vosgian Beast posted:

I hate the word "purge" to mean "facing very mild repercussions for things I say in public". I have never purged anyone, and no one will ever purge me.

Darth Walrus posted:

Decided against that all-bran diet, then?

Literally The Worst posted:

Randall Munroe should be purged just not for any of those reasons. He just sucks bad.

Merdifex posted:

I'm just going to assume that you're not supportive of reductive racism but just want to defend Scott because he, for once, did some statistics that you like for some reason, (which doesn't explain all those other times you've leapt to his defence, but what the hell) and leave the matter to rest.

Silver2195 posted:

Edit: Ah, I just understood what you meant now: Twitter took his verified-user icon for being obnoxious on Twitter. Sorry for being dense.

Patrick Spens posted:

You are aware that words mean things, and that Alexander isn't DE right?

divabot posted:

Scott seems to have some allergy to correct use of statistics. I remember him using that loving bogus debt graph (if anyone gives you a graph of national debt in absolute dollars rather than as % of GDP, they are an idiot, a crank or a crook trying to sell you BS). Even when he's being fed help from people, he still doesn't seem to know what the gently caress he's doing.

So no, I won't accept that Scott is more informed on anything in any useful sense. He's read more stuff but he does not show any signs of understanding it.

divabot posted:

Scott Alexander is a good example of a totally-not-neoreactionary. He just has them as his friends and his sidebar is full of neoreactionaries up to out-and-out white nationalists and his comment section is literally a neoreactionary salon and recruiting ground and he keeps talking about their horrible ideas like they're just where a sensible centre of political discourse should be, and that would be why he is on-topic for this thread. But he's totally not a neoreactionary himself, 'cos he says he isn't. He also says he's all for feminism and is a liberal.

Patrick Spens posted:

Nah. I know this is complicated, but neoreactionaries dont write tens of thousands of words about why neoreaction is stupid. Like, Alexander is more or less a walking tone argument, but him not banning neoreactionaries on sight doesn't make him one.

Skellybones posted:

But wouldn't a brutal traditionalist theocratic monarchy that hates women and gays be their favourite thing?

Merdifex posted:

This is essentially it. The only saving grace of that gun control post is that the object level statistics don't suck poo poo, thanks to su3su2u1's kind help on tumblr.

Patrick Spens posted:

Nah. I know this is complicated, but neoreactionaries dont write tens of thousands of words about why neoreaction is stupid. Like, Alexander is more or less a walking tone argument, but him not banning neoreactionaries on sight doesn't make him one.

quote:

And part of what went wrong with LessWrong and the neoreactionaries was that some people who weren’t themselves neoreactionaries felt the need to be nice to them because they were part of the LessWrong in-group. Scott Alexander is exhibit A here.

Merdifex posted:

Do you realize how close he is to deleting that anti-reacto FAQ? This is just you not knowing Scott and what he's been up to.

Meanwhile, St. Rev says that SJWs, or rather, the entire left in in the West, are actually funded by Saudi Wahhabi dollars. Nydwracu agrees. https://twitter.com/St_Rev/status/685934975888265217

divabot posted:

He doesn't identify as neoreactionary, but he does treat their ridiculous and extremist ideas as normal and reasonable political discourse, and keeps examining them as if they were such, over and over. (In particular, there seems no aspect of scientific racism human biodiversity he doesn't find fascinating.) He seems to think all this horrible bullshit is normative. As nostalgebraist noted, "even when he writes pages and pages about how Moldbug makes no sense, he still talks about Moldbug as though he’s some sort of chummy in-group member, like he’s “one of us” who just happened to have strayed a bit afield." He just casually uses Moldbug as a go-to passing reference when discussing couples counselling for gay men, confident this is just the thing for his readers.

Merdifex posted:

I think this misunderstanding is due to me not providing the proper context. This is not about Scott, but about some (right-wing) NRO journalist who tried to refute one article or another, but the coefficients of his data weren't standardized at all, and the scale factor was hosed. And he was working off of a model he made in R, not scatterplots. The only other thing I know about this guy is that he really likes The Bell Curve, so there's that.

Merdifex posted:

Are you saying that Scott's argument of there being a Black "culture of violence" is not racist?

Merdifex posted:

It's hilarious to me because in Scott's circle, this is somehow the PC viewpoint. But of course, there are no other factors involved, it must all go back to Blackness being the explanation, as proven by 0.54 linear correlation. This is quantitative race realism! This is the point where I'm less confident in the possibility that there's a misunderstanding between us, which I'm still hoping is the case. I'm just going to assume that you're not supportive of reductive racism but just want to defend Scott because he, for once, did some statistics that you like for some reason, (which doesn't explain all those other times you've leapt to his defence, but what the hell) and leave the matter to rest.

Parallel Paraplegic posted:

Also earlier when I was thinking of a particular gay who was against gay marriage and only wanted rough manly spartan sex I think I was thinking of Milo, I know he's against gay marriage while also being gay at least. Someone called him a "gay rights activist" on twitter which made me throw up in my mouth a little I think.

Patrick Spens posted:

Nah. I know this is complicated, but neoreactionaries dont write tens of thousands of words about why neoreaction is stupid. Like, Alexander is more or less a walking tone argument, but him not banning neoreactionaries on sight doesn't make him one.

Merdifex posted:

This is essentially it. The only saving grace of that gun control post is that the object level statistics don't suck poo poo, thanks to su3su2u1's kind help on tumblr.

The conclusions Scott draws, however, do suck poo poo as per the usual Scott way. In general he doesn't know the gently caress he's doing, his claim that the "traditional" (read: the one he hears most on his blog) explanation of the Black population correlation with gun crime is a "culture of violence" (Scott even explains it in the most racist way possible) just goes to show that.

Even Scott's old livejournal posts about "biodeterminism" are similarly bullshit, and Scott doesn't understand concepts like statistical significance or replication, let alone the topics he's writing about, like genetics.

divabot posted:

Scott seems to have some allergy to correct use of statistics

Cingulate posted:

quote:

The Man2Man Alliance is a coalition of Men -- some of whom self-identify as "gay," others as "straight," and others as "bi" -- but most of whom today have rejected those out-dated labels and now simply identify as Men -- Men who are determined to win recognition from society of the genuineness of their feelings for one another; and of the validity of the expression of that affection through Frot, phallus-on-phallus sex, which is not only life-affirming and masculine but mindful of both participants' shared and mutual enjoyment.

This Man2Man Alliance website, then, and our affiliated Heroic Homosex and Frot Men domains, are advocacy sites, dedicated to putting forth the truth that two Men can best have a physically and emotionally loving relationship when it's expressed through the celebration of their Mutual Masculinity and the exaltation of their Mutual Manhood.

This central premise flies in the face of beliefs cherished by both the dominant "heterosexual" and "homosexual" cultures.

"Straight / heterosexual" culture defines Men within the confines of a narrow and sterile idea of how men should relate to one another, both emotionally and physically. Too often, men are taught that any physical bonding with another man that involves sex or emotion automatically brands them as something less than a man.

quote:

While "gay male" culture has become obsessed with anal penetration, incessantly asserting that anal is the ultimate expression of erotic contact between males, and that no sexual encounter is complete unless it culminates in an act of anal penetration.

Yet the erotic pleasure in anal penetration is so minimal, and, when joined with promiscuity, the dangers anal presents to its practitioners and the community so great, that it's difficult to conceive of a practice more ruinous or less enjoyable taking center place in a sexual subculture.

These dangers, of which HIV/AIDS is the best known, but which include hepatitis B and C, syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydia, the human papilloma virus, herpes, and a host of other pathogens, will persist even after AIDS has been cured or can be prevented through vaccination.

And more anally-transmitted diseases most certainly await discovery.

For anal penetration is an exceptionally efficient mode of disease transmission, and we can be sure that pathogens will continue to find an infective niche in anal.

In addition, no magic or wishful thinking can transform either the anus or the rectum into genital organs, nor can the feelings experienced by a male being penetrated anally be compared to those of genital stimulation.

Further, anal penetration subjugates one of the participants to the other, effectively emasculating him, turning him into a pseudo-woman, a proxy in a heterosexualized form of contact. This is an inherently unequal act, epitomized by its tedious terminology of "tops" and "bottoms," which is unmindful of the basic human need for a shared experience without pain and with dignity.

Whereas Frot, phallus-against-phallus contact, is the acme of sexual activity between Men because it's focused on that which makes Men Masculine, namely their genitals -- their Manhood -- rather than their organs of fecal excretion.

To draw a parallel with male-female sex: Men and Women connect to one another genitally. They are made that way, like counterweights or puzzle pieces, complementary of one another. In the same way, during phallus-to-phallus sexual activity, Men are related to one another as they should be, in that part of their body that fits together genitally and sensually. For a Man and a Woman sex is a naturally penetrative act. For two Men the natural experience is that which stimulates both of them phallically -- not anally. Neither the anus nor the rectum are genitalia, period. And to say so is not in and of itself confrontational, but simply affirmative of a natural affinity the majority of Men feel for one another. To be able to have a healthy, fulfilling, safe act that is cooperative in the achievement of gratification should be hailed as a boon to both cultures -- but instead it has been met with skepticism in "straight" society and derision in the "gay male" community.

This continuing denigration of healthy, loving, and innately Masculine sexual intimacy is a result of ignorance and prejudice, and the Men of the Alliance are committed to exposing and defeating both.

The Alliance and its allied websites also present in detail the historical and cultural context of the recognition of same-sex contact between Men. This is relevant to all Men whether they currently self-identify as "heterosexual" or "homosexual." Because historically, in many cultures, Men could express erotic desires for both sexes and be considered totally within the realm of normality.

In fact, Frot is an expression of our most basic male biology, that we are not only capable of giving and receiving pleasure phallically with each other as Men, but that we are hard-wired to enjoy it. Recognizing phallus-against-phallus sex as a part of the natural interplay among Men will go a long way to removing the prohibitions still in place in our society against the physical and sexual expression between Men of their bond and friendship. That's not to say every friendship between Men should involve sex, but rather that if it evolves into a phallic, sexual sharing it is not an aberrant or immoral behavior, but a natural and imminently uplifting experience.

Nessus posted:

I see this and I can only think of


which continues on to

http://man2manalliance.org/ If you're interested in learning what's HOT about FROT (the NWS comes from constant pictures of dongs)

Nessus posted:

I see this and I can only think of


which continues on to

http://man2manalliance.org/ If you're interested in learning what's HOT about FROT (the NWS comes from constant pictures of dongs)