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Jewel Repetition posted:Doesn't the way the fees work mean you don't make any money off those? You only get charged 10% of profits. So I get $400 before fees on resolution, but only $20 in profits. Of that $20, 10% is taken in fees, so $2. Ultimately, I make $18 off of my $380 "investment." (The site also charges a 5% fee when you take money out, but that's after many bets have been completed in serial for me.)
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Jan 9, 2016 21:26
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| # ? May 30, 2024 14:10 |
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What about Rand missing the main stage? • Place in the top six nationally, based on an average of the five most recent national polls recognized by FOX News. OR • Place in the top five in Iowa, based on an average of the five most recent Iowa state polls recognized by FOX News. OR • Place in the top five in New Hampshire, based on an average of the five most recent New Hampshire state polls recognized by FOX News.. Does FBN use the same criteria as RCP for poll inclusion? If so it would seem pretty safe that this will resolve as No. Fox doesn't seem to have the same tendency as CNN buckling last minute http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2015/12/22/fox-business-network-announces-entry-criteria-for-gop-primary-debates-on-jan-14/
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Jan 9, 2016 21:39
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What about Rand missing the main stage? They use their own arbitrary criteria for choosing polls, you have to painstakingly go through the whole thing to get a decent picture of what's going on.
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Jan 9, 2016 22:07
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What about Rand missing the main stage? Well, no, the RCP criteria seem to be based on the phases of the moon and how hungover the data-entry intern is on a given day. But it's not looking good for him, regardless.
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Jan 9, 2016 22:08
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Vox Nihili posted:Oh man Rand Noes aren't nearly as cheap as they were last time. You have your chance. They have been bouncing around in the high 70's low 80's.
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Jan 10, 2016 19:00
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If he really skips the undercard debate I don't think that's going to help him gain support. He has as many county reps lined up as Rick Santorum did in 2012 so I don't think he'll duck out before Iowa and his support New Hampshire ain't bad, so I bought more at 80. I don't see skipping a debate as a good political move, though.
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Jan 10, 2016 19:57
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What do you guys think about Obama being able to close Guantanamo before he leaves office? I'm pretty skeptical but he's been making a lot of noise about it recently. For what it's worth it just spiked up $.12 today due to a statement from McDonough
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Jan 11, 2016 03:56
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He could conceivably plan a closing of the base, but there's absolutely no way to accomplish that in a year.
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Jan 11, 2016 08:14
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Rand Paul Drop Out No around 75c now. I'm next to certain that he'll stay in through New Hampshire, but many people on the site have become convinced that he'll drop the moment he doesn't make a debate.
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Jan 11, 2016 08:29
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Necc0 posted:What do you guys think about Obama being able to close Guantanamo before he leaves office? I'm pretty skeptical but he's been making a lot of noise about it recently. For what it's worth it just spiked up $.12 today due to a statement from McDonough Nice. Bought a few at 42c to play long. He's had a few successes in foreign policy this term (Iran, Cuba, trade, climate) that were surprises at the time, so I suppose it's worth the vote of confidence at this price. Man Musk has issued a correction as of 08:43 on Jan 11, 2016 |
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Jan 11, 2016 08:39
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Vox Nihili posted:Rand Paul Drop Out No around 75c now. I'm next to certain that he'll stay in through New Hampshire, but many people on the site have become convinced that he'll drop the moment he doesn't make a debate. For how high they have pushed the Rand drop out market, it's weird is how high they have pushed his odds of participating in the big debate. It's up to 25% now. Fox has all but said that the field is too crowded and they are going to help weed it. I think they have made the selection criteria vague enough to make sure he stays out. If you believe in a middle ground that he won't participate on the main stage debate and it won't cause him to automatically drop out like I do then you are being squeezed at both ends. I am already in both heavy enough that I'm not putting in more from a risk management perspective, but I think there is money to be made on both sides now. A better market would be will Rand Paul participate in the under card debate
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Jan 11, 2016 18:43
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Trump is spiking in every market. If you believe his folks won't show up, now is the time to buy.
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Jan 11, 2016 19:01
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Yeah his Iowa shares just went up 12¢ in 10 hours.
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Jan 11, 2016 23:02
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PredictIt traders: Bernie Sanders has a 23% chance of becoming the next President of the United States. I know he’s been polling better lately, but  .e: Let’s just be clear on this: if Bernie Sanders had a 50:50 shot at beating Clinton and, having done that, a 50:50 chance of beating the GOP challenger, he’d still only have 25% odds. The current implied odds of him winning the primary are 30%. If PredctIt traders believe that, they must also believe that he has a better chance in the general election than Hillary does (to the tune of 80%, DEM.PREZPRTY16 being 66¢ at the moment), which is just  .Platystemon has issued a correction as of 00:37 on Jan 12, 2016 |
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Jan 11, 2016 23:53
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Predictit tends to be the most susceptible to wishful thinking of betting markets. It usually manifests as boosts to Trump and Bernie.
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Jan 11, 2016 23:54
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TRUMP.SWEEP4.NO trading at 76¢ seems like quick easy money if he doesn't win in Iowa.
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Jan 12, 2016 00:07
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Platystemon posted:PredictIt traders: Bernie Sanders has a 23% chance of becoming the next President of the United States. Yeah there's a lot of money to be made against the Bernie exuberance but I refuse to involve myself in that. Plus it's scary enough to bet against momentum. But I encourage everyone else to take these bets.
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Jan 12, 2016 00:28
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Misc posted:TRUMP.SWEEP4.NO trading at 76¢ seems like quick easy money if he doesn't win in Iowa. If you think he's going to lose Iowa, you can actually make more money off of CRUZ.IACAUCUS16.GOP at 62¢. I mean, unless you think someone else would take it.
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Jan 12, 2016 00:31
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Misc posted:TRUMP.SWEEP4.NO trading at 76¢ seems like quick easy money if he doesn't win in Iowa. If you think he's going to lose Iowa, you can actually make more money off of CRUZ.IACAUCUS16.GOP at 62¢. I mean, unless you think someone else would take it.
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Jan 12, 2016 00:44
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Vox Nihili posted:Yeah there's a lot of money to be made against the Bernie exuberance but I refuse to involve myself in that. Plus it's scary enough to bet against momentum. Yeah Hillary is routinely about 15 points ahead of Bernie, but a crazy poll came out recently with her just 4 points ahead, so right now the Bernmentum is pretty strong, but will it drop off by the time any relevant markets close is the real question.
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Jan 12, 2016 01:20
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New polls - length of SOTU and length of GOP response, with minute intervals. In other words: you're a degenerate gambler and need something to do.
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Jan 12, 2016 01:33
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The other markets cleared out fast, but people are still selling PAUL.FBNDEBATE2 NO @ 98¢. I guess they really need that money freed up.
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Jan 12, 2016 01:42
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Fiorina is now at the top of the next republican to drop out list at 25c
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Jan 12, 2016 01:46
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Drop out markets completely melting down ATM.
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Jan 12, 2016 01:48
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pathetic little tramp posted:New polls - length of SOTU and length of GOP response, with minute intervals. In other words: you're a degenerate gambler and need something to do. I lowballed all the NOs but didn't get anyone to bite.
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Jan 12, 2016 02:45
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Vox Nihili posted:Yeah there's a lot of money to be made against the Bernie exuberance but I refuse to involve myself in that. Plus it's scary enough to bet against momentum. I've been using this strategy since joining, going against Trump and Bern when they've been overvalued relative to Betfair, and I've just been getting crushed on every position for a long time now 
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Jan 12, 2016 03:57
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Jewel Repetition posted:If you think he's going to lose Iowa, you can actually make more money off of CRUZ.IACAUCUS16.GOP at 62¢. I mean, unless you think someone else would take it. More money? Sure, but TRUMP.SWEEP4.NO is safer money that still offers payout in the event of a NH loss, which is also possible.
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Jan 12, 2016 03:59
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thethreeman posted:I've been using this strategy since joining, going against Trump and Bern when they've been overvalued relative to Betfair, and I've just been getting crushed on every position for a long time now I've never checked out Betfair, but at least on PredictIt I've found that you bet against Trump at your own peril. Granted its been just polls until now. For the record I hold Cruz Yes for Iowa and Trump Yes for NH. The former is dropping, the later is rising.
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Jan 12, 2016 04:16
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The sky is falling on my Sanders nos! 
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Jan 12, 2016 18:21
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Shear Modulus posted:The sky is falling on my Sanders nos! For Iowa or as the Dem nominee? He could theoretically take Iowa and NH but he's still going to be crushed everywhere else.
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Jan 12, 2016 18:44
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Aliquid posted:For Iowa or as the Dem nominee? He could theoretically take Iowa and NH but he's still going to be crushed everywhere else. Furthermore, if Sanders does take IA/NH Clinton Yes will still be a pretty safe bet and probably pretty underpriced.
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Jan 12, 2016 18:46
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GITMO17.YES just moved +25c on this: http://www.wsj.com/articles/guantanamo-bay-detainee-sent-home-to-saudi-arabia-1452537333 Getting out in the 60s, cheers for the tip predictiongoons.
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Jan 12, 2016 19:09
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Shear Modulus posted:The sky is falling on my Sanders nos!
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Jan 12, 2016 19:21
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Still think Clinton's going to take Iowa due to the superdelegates. Those shares are super cheap now.
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Jan 12, 2016 19:23
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Yeah without a third candidate to cause a ruckus in the Iowa caucus, the chances of Hillary taking them is much higher.
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Jan 12, 2016 19:35
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a cop posted:Still think Clinton's going to take Iowa due to the superdelegates. Those shares are super cheap now. I'm not sure if superdelegates will work that way, but not betting the farm on this. What do others think? When I have seen primaries and caucus results reported in the past it seems to be pledged delegates reported in the results with the understanding that a contingency of superdelegates are out there to make sure voters don't make a mistake. Also superdelegates can change their mind at any time, so its not like a reported total would be accurate going into the convention. But PredictIt could do anything and "majority of delegate support" seems vague.
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Jan 12, 2016 19:48
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Hillary winning the Presidency has tanked to 44c which seems absurd. Guess I'll have to buy some more.
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Jan 12, 2016 22:48
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Oh man I totally forgot about the VP markets. Cheap Warren NO shares at $.84 if anyone wants them. Just bought a handful
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Jan 12, 2016 22:48
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Mike_V posted:Hillary winning the Presidency has tanked to 44c which seems absurd. Guess I'll have to buy some more. 44c sounds about right unless you think the GOP is actually collapsing.
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Jan 12, 2016 22:49
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| # ? May 30, 2024 14:10 |
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Mike_V posted:Hillary winning the Presidency has tanked to 44c which seems absurd. Guess I'll have to buy some more. Oh man I made some quick cash on riding that from 45 to 60 today too (or was that the dem nom market, i forget - edit, it was iowa caucus market). Either way, the Hillary markets are having some wackiness right now for sure. edit: something I didn't realise untilI bought in for 300 dollars - it takes a loooong time to move shares if you buy over 200. pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 23:17 on Jan 12, 2016 |
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Jan 12, 2016 23:02
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