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Vox Nihili posted:44c sounds about right unless you think the GOP is actually collapsing. Yeah, that figure is all dependent on who gets the nom on the GOP side. An establishment candidate will make the general a toss-up. Any fringe candidates of the moment make that a much more lucrative market, but we ought to know that those shares will not stay .44 if Cruz/Trump starts making serious progress towards the nom. I guess if you're confident the GOP is going to poo poo the bed, you could possibly buy at .44 and flip after SC or something, but that money is too long term for me either way.
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Jan 12, 2016 23:22
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Wow, I would put Hillary fairly priced at like 60c. It doesn't even matter who the GOP candidate is, the map is just supremely unfavorable to them. e: ok, I see that Bernie is at 26c so the democratic advantage is baked into their combined prices. Even then, it would take a ridiculous meltdown for him to even sniff the nomination. nachos has issued a correction as of 23:46 on Jan 12, 2016 |
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Jan 12, 2016 23:44
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Way I see it: Bernie now, trump later. In terms of bilking partisans and taking advantage of their supporters' delusions.
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Jan 13, 2016 00:37
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New forecasts for Feb primaries: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/
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Jan 13, 2016 01:18
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Rand No in Iowa basically free money at 97c a pop. In no universe does he take the state. Also in no universe does this bet make you much, but hey.
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Jan 13, 2016 02:55
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I am a loving idiot who almost wasted a bunch of money betting on the SotU not being shorter than 55 minutes because I didn't think. Luckily I got out in time, but that was some loving easy money I gave up because I'm a dumb loving idiot.
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Jan 13, 2016 03:01
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so, can anyone tell me how Nevada votes? If Trump wins IA, he also wins NH and SC, so why is TRUMP.SWEEP4 YES only 25c, while IACAUCUS16.GOP Trump 39c? The last NV poll was late Dec, and had Trump +13, but it was by Gravis... Are the discounted SWEEP shares just people thinking that "there's too much time, nobody in NV has made up their minds yet", or "Adelson can swing the whole state"? The latter seems dead wrong to me, given the trends this year, and the former doesn't seem like a risk at all if Trump wins IA and NH. Do they usually swing establishment, hard-line, evangelical, etc?
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Jan 13, 2016 04:29
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Nevada GOP voters are made up of racists, libertarians and Mormons. Trump sweeping all four is undervalued, good find.
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Jan 13, 2016 04:35
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Bernie NO is down to the low 60s. I haven't been in that market for months but this is not realistic and this surge has gone too far. I'm a Bernie supporter and donor, but I know that is not going to happen.
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Jan 13, 2016 05:14
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Shear Modulus posted:The sky is falling on my Sanders nos! Bernie winning the entire loving election is currently 31¢ YES/ 70¢ NO.
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Jan 13, 2016 06:26
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I don't get what happened in the SOTU length market. I had shares in 60-65 minutes, and everything I've read pegged the speech at 58 minutes and change. But I logged in just now, and looks like all my shares resolved to yes.
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Jan 13, 2016 06:35
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Prime Sinister posted:I don't get what happened in the SOTU length market. I had shares in 60-65 minutes, and everything I've read pegged the speech at 58 minutes and change. But I logged in just now, and looks like all my shares resolved to yes. Read the rules, it could be something weird. I bet it's some arcane thing like they start the clock when he walks through the door and begins glad-handing, instead of when he starts talking.
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Jan 13, 2016 06:37
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Same. I don't know how long the speech was but apparently I made money at the length being longer than 55 minutes, that's was easy peasy. Have the republicans responded yet?
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Jan 13, 2016 06:39
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Aliquid posted:Read the rules, it could be something weird. I bet it's some arcane thing like they start the clock when he walks through the door and begins glad-handing, instead of when he starts talking. Apparently he said "thank you" while in the range of the microphone before he was even introduced. Rules are rules. 
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Jan 13, 2016 06:41
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Yeah, it was a fun little ride reading the comments, since I had YES on both 55-60 and 60-65. There was at least one person already threatening a class action suit before PredictIt even commented on it. The rules are, from first word to last word spoken into the mic. Official total should be about 60:14. PredictIt: Technically correct, the best kind of correct.
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Jan 13, 2016 06:49
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pretty stoked my 10 bucks on RECORD BREAKING PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BERNIE SANDERS is now $17.50 :bernget:
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Jan 13, 2016 06:53
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Does anyone know how long the Republican response was? I can't find it
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Jan 13, 2016 07:04
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Aliquid posted:Nevada GOP voters are made up of racists, libertarians and Mormons. Trump sweeping all four is undervalued, good find. haha cool
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Jan 13, 2016 07:07
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Chafey posted:pretty stoked my 10 bucks on RECORD BREAKING PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BERNIE SANDERS is now $17.50 :bernget: Sell now.
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Jan 13, 2016 07:36
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haha with the gently caress is this i was going to post my PredictIt shame bet but logged in and realized I put in another buy order while drunk last night. I have a problem and it's not with alcohol, it's with Jeb.  i'm keeping the buy order
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Jan 13, 2016 07:41
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Aliquid posted:haha with the gently caress is this I have 900 shares in the other direction.
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Jan 13, 2016 08:52
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Vox Nihili posted:I have 900 shares in the other direction. that's a poo poo-ton so I feel much better even if I lose every penny also, if I lose it means the GOPe split itself and everything is going to hell so 
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Jan 13, 2016 08:55
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thethreeman posted:so, can anyone tell me how Nevada votes? If Trump wins IA, he also wins NH and SC, so why is TRUMP.SWEEP4 YES only 25c, while IACAUCUS16.GOP Trump 39c? I'm sorely tempted by this insane contract. Someone talk some sense into me.
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Jan 13, 2016 09:07
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Who is Nevada going to go for if not Trump? Not Cruz. If you think that Rubio, Kasich, or Christie will surge, fine (though more likely in NH, as I see it), but TRUMP.SWEEP4 is definitely undervalued relative to IACAUCUS16.GOP on Trump. I think it’s a psychological thing. Sweeping the first four seems like an incredible, unprecedented feat, but when looked at step‐by‐step, given an Iowa victory, Trump’s odds become very good.
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Jan 13, 2016 09:22
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Platystemon posted:Who is Nevada going to go for if not Trump? What if consolidation occurs immediately following NH?
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Jan 13, 2016 09:35
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Vox Nihili posted:What if consolidation occurs immediately following NH? Will the consolidation occur before the market reacts to Trump winning? Unlikely. If you think Trump will win IA and NH but maybe not NV or SC, back out then. The sweep is calling to me, but I don’t bet on Trump markets.
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Jan 13, 2016 09:54
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Aliquid posted:haha with the gently caress is this Dude.... what 
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Jan 13, 2016 16:13
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Vox Nihili posted:What if consolidation occurs immediately following NH? Yeah, the schedule goes like this for Republicans: Iowa - February 1 New Hampshire - February 9 South Carolina - February 20 Nevada - February 23 And for Democrats: Iowa - February 1 New Hampshire - February 9 Nevada - February 20 South Carolina - February 27 There's a whole 11 days between NH and Republican SC, and another 3 til Republican Nevada.
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Jan 13, 2016 17:10
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Aliquid posted:haha with the gently caress is this I bailed out of that market at a loss. But I admire you for doing god's work 
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Jan 13, 2016 17:51
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Aliquid posted:haha with the gently caress is this In light of your openness, I too will share my PredictIt shame. 
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Jan 13, 2016 17:54
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Prime Sinister posted:In light of your openness, I too will share my PredictIt shame. I also have 500 shares of Carson winning Iowa at .03. It feels really stupid but even with that and the Jeb bet I'm still up 300% since June
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Jan 13, 2016 18:13
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Aliquid posted:I also have 500 shares of Carson winning Iowa at .03. I was in that Carson one but managed to get out at 2c. I'm super jealous of ya'll, I didn't find out about this site until after the Biden money was gone.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:18
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I have 164 shares of Santorum winning Iowa at .02. That is my story of PredictIt shame.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:47
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Thanks for reminding me thread, that I too own Carson YES shares, thankfully I just sold a few after months of waiting for a buyer. Only 335 shares to go...
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Jan 13, 2016 18:50
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As long as we're sharing our lottery ticket style bets I'm banking on: - Jeb finishes third in Iowa by some miracle - Christie's NH numbers continue to fart out - Right to Rise offers Christie a few millions to drop out attempting to consolidate his voters - Christie leaves, but his supporters go to Rubio/Trump anyway - Jeb asks people to leave the room if this will offend you edit: Also, Sanders NO for USPrez is easy easy money, a guaranteed 30 cents on every share you take, but will we be able to make that 30 cents after the convention or do you think it'll get to 95-97 after Iowa/NH pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 19:37 on Jan 13, 2016 |
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Jan 13, 2016 19:33
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Platystemon posted:Who is Nevada going to go for if not Trump? There's this crazy idea that NV Mormons (a huge factor in GOP primaries in that state) will rally behind Rubio because he's an ex-Mormon. This strikes me as insane...if anything it should hurt him with Mormons.
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Jan 13, 2016 19:57
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pathetic little tramp posted:
A Jeb suicide would resolve his dropout market as correct, yes?
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Jan 13, 2016 20:05
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ˆˆˆˆ^Santorum drops out just before Jeb pulls the trigger, leading to Jeb even losing at dropping outPatter Song posted:There's this crazy idea that NV Mormons (a huge factor in GOP primaries in that state) will rally behind Rubio because he's an ex-Mormon. This strikes me as insane...if anything it should hurt him with Mormons. Seriously, he knows all the secret passwords to get into Heaven and he can still wear his magic marks to get into the temple veil in heaven.
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Jan 13, 2016 20:06
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pathetic little tramp posted:edit: Also, Sanders NO for USPrez is easy easy money, a guaranteed 30 cents on every share you take, but will we be able to make that 30 cents after the convention or do you think it'll get to 95-97 after Iowa/NH These Sanders NO bets will mostly pay off after he gets crushed in South Carolina. After that will be like Biden where you are hanging on for months to squeeze out the last few pennies.
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Jan 13, 2016 21:25
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Yeah I'm happy just selling it off for 95 once he gives up the ghost. I was wary of it at first when I was thinking I'd have to wait until November, but then I realised that derp, he'll be out of it by then. I've learned it's not enough to know that polls can be swingy, it's important to know who is going to read the most into polls being swingy. A Bernie poll showing him not being completely destroyed is going to inflate his numbers much more than, say, a Christie poll showing him gaining ground because Christie doesn't have groupies.
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Jan 13, 2016 21:47
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