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I wonder what the Kelly number of tickets people should buy is for most people given the tiny amount of EV and huge variance. I imagine it's probably 0 for a lot of people. Or maybe it's exactly enough to get everyone down to some % of their total bankroll. I don't know how Kelly criterion works very well!
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Jan 13, 2016 05:59
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gently caress the ROW posted:theyre gonna call it PLOWERBALL when i win this thing BOWERPALL
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Jan 13, 2016 06:30
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So 10am we find out if someone one? I'm just giddy with excitement.
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Jan 13, 2016 06:37
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I thought the next drawing is Wednesday night
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Jan 13, 2016 06:44
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Stefan Prodan posted:I wonder what the Kelly number of tickets people should buy is for most people given the tiny amount of EV and huge variance. I imagine it's probably 0 for a lot of people. Or maybe it's exactly enough to get everyone down to some % of their total bankroll. I don't know how Kelly criterion works very well! I walked up to the counter today then the clerk looked at me and I started sweating and then I just yelled I FOLD and chucked my little ticket with the minmaxed number selection into the muck.
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Jan 13, 2016 07:00
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Accretionist posted:I think it's federal income tax of 39.6%. Lump summed gets the 39.6 plus state but once invested it's the capital gains rate.
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Jan 13, 2016 07:03
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Blind Rasputin posted:So 10am we find out if someone one? I'm just giddy with excitement. PM
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Jan 13, 2016 07:19
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http://i.imgur.com/QtexXMG.webm
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Jan 13, 2016 08:10
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what if they decide not to pay out the jackpot because they can't guarantee it won't be donated to ISIS
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Jan 13, 2016 08:17
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its beautiful
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Jan 13, 2016 08:25
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Jan 13, 2016 08:26
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imagine the upgrade you could get at 900M
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Jan 13, 2016 08:32
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Jan 13, 2016 08:50
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jon joe posted:Let's say you know the winning numbers. From a dream, God told you, aliens beamed it into your brain, whatever. Should you buy the winning ticket? Probably. But you shouldn't stop there. Every ticket your purchase with the 5 regular numbers, but the wrong powerball, nets you 1 million dollars at the cost of 2. With power play, that's 2 million dollars at the cost of 3. If you purchase 1000 power play tickets with the right regular numbers and wrong powerball, that costs 3 thousand dollars and gains you 2 billion, net gain 1,999,996,000.00 before taxes. That's an investment gain of 666666.67%. Sure you'll be in court hell forever as the lottery tries to figure out how you cheated, but when they come up with nothing they'll be forced to pay you (with interest over time, because they won't have enough cash on hand to lump sum you, so it'll be closer to 2 billion plus 5%ish on the remaining capital for every year they fail to pay you everything.) You could technically do it for more, but that ups the chance the lottery dissolves and pays you however much its corpse is worth, instead. Or maybe that's what dream God alien wanted. There's a specific provision that they'll simply reduce the prizes if they don't have enough money.
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Jan 13, 2016 17:16
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I'm going to take the $4 I won on Saturday and use it to buy the winning ticket today.
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Jan 13, 2016 17:18
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Zogo posted:That's a very conservative estimate of the annuity take home amount because the gov't fat cats/politicians are going to take a lot in some states. Yeah alright I can get down with that. I'd probably put it upfront in the analysis especially since payouts under I think $600 aren't explicitly recorded for taxation.
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Jan 13, 2016 17:18
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here's some extra lucky numbers, gbs: 1 13 24 85 76 33 you're welcome!
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Jan 13, 2016 17:18
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Sheep-Goats posted:I walked up to the counter today then the clerk looked at me and I started sweating and then I just yelled I FOLD and chucked my little ticket with the minmaxed number selection into the muck. same
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Jan 13, 2016 17:22
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Play 1 2 3 4 5 6. It's just as likely as any combination and if you win you get to be the person who won a billion dollars with President Skroob's luggage combination.
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Jan 13, 2016 17:26
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I'm literally playing numbers I saw in a dream because I am an easily amused idiot who makes poor life choices.
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Jan 13, 2016 17:26
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Accretionist posted:I'm literally playing numbers I saw in a dream because I am an easily amused idiot who makes poor life choices. You could play literally any numbers and it doesn't make a bit of difference. Colbert showed his numbers last night on the late show. I do wonder how many people are going to buy those same numbers now.
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Jan 13, 2016 17:32
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I just let the computer pick my numbers.
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Jan 13, 2016 17:47
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yes its very confusing to me when i see everybody filling out the little cards. but, its not like i actually "play" the lottery so who am I to judge. I've bought probably 5 tickets my entire life. but seriously how does picking numbers change anything lolHector Beerlioz posted:I'm going to take the $4 I won on Saturday and use it to buy the winning ticket today. hey rear end in a top hat this is what im going to do part oaf me is worried ill win $4 for the rest of my life though and never stop buying lottery tickets
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Jan 13, 2016 17:52
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BossRighteous posted:You could play literally any numbers and it doesn't make a bit of difference. But now if I win, I'm psychic. There's a 1-in-292m chance of a follow-on book deal and talk show.
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Jan 13, 2016 17:53
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If you picked the white number randomly from 32-69 you may decrease the probability of a collision a little. 30% of players pick their own numbers and I bet out of those a lot are birthday numbers.
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Jan 13, 2016 17:57
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Germstore posted:Play 1 2 3 4 5 6. It's just as likely as any combination and if you win you get to be the person who won a billion dollars with President Skroob's luggage combination. Yes but it is more likely that others are doing to same thing and there would be a massive split.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:03
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Germstore posted:Play 1 2 3 4 5 6. It's just as likely as any combination and if you win you get to be the person who won a billion dollars with President Skroob's luggage combination. This would be hilarious because (I'm guessing) at least 1,000 smug assholes would have to split the prize down to probably under a million after taxes. I'm sure they would be very happy about it still, but there would be that sense of annoyance that its not a full jackpot if you looked deep into their eyes.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:04
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Three Olives posted:Yes but it is more likely that others are doing to same thing and there would be a massive split. I found one article saying 1-2-3-4-5-6 gets played thousands of times per week in the british lotto, so it's probably the same for the powerball. That would be pretty nasty.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:05
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6 5 4 3 2 1, then
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Jan 13, 2016 18:08
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Three Olives posted:Yes but it is more likely that others are doing to same thing and there would be a massive split. So you should buy a ticket to get a piece of the pie.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:11
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I thought for sure that "lucky" 13 as the powerball would have had somebody win. Maybe if the powerball is 7 instead.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:11
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Actually more hilarious would just be if 1-2-3-4-5 hits with some random other powerball number. That might actually create the situation described above where people think they are in for the (unsplittable) $1,000,000 second place prize, but there are so many of them that the lottery invokes that clause where it can't pay out and reduces the prizes.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:13
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THE DOG HOUSE posted:yes its very confusing to me when i see everybody filling out the little cards. but, its not like i actually "play" the lottery so who am I to judge. I've bought probably 5 tickets my entire life. but seriously how does picking numbers change anything lol
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Jan 13, 2016 18:20
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I've noticed that quickpicks repeat numbers more often, decreasing your odds of regular prizes.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:27
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Accretionist posted:I've noticed that quickpicks repeat numbers more often, decreasing your odds of regular prizes. This is fact, never do quick picks. Personally I just play one ticket, with advance plays (you can fill a bubble to get advance plays on the slip), and I know what numbers I picked.. so once every few weeks I can just look at all the past drawings quickly and see if my numbers are there (which they never will be) and waste as little time as possible while drawing continued false hope for the longest possible time. Also they give you your slip back when you buy the ticket so you can pay your math tax like a good little drone without needing to fill it out again.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:30
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These poor scrubs thought they won Saturday, but they were mistakenly looking at numbers from last Wednesday. There is even a video of them celebrating the win. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-workers-mistakenly-thought-theyd-won-powerball-on-saturday-2016-01-13 quote:Workers at a New Jersey restaurant jumped for joy when they thought they’d hit the Powerball jackpot, scoring Saturday’s $949 million prize.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:42
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Hahahahahaha. Watch them win tonight.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:47
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New strategy, spend 2 dollars on one ticket and spend another 2 dollars buying the hobo outside a bag of those corn chips he likes. The karma increases your chance of winning by at least a factor of four.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:51
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Pawn 17 posted:“For 20 minutes, it was real,” he said. “It’s a shame we didn’t win, but I wouldn’t trade that feeling for anything.” I bet he'd trade it for a billion dollars. loving yokels.
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Jan 13, 2016 18:53
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Germstore posted:New strategy, spend 2 dollars on one ticket and spend another 2 dollars buying the hobo outside a bag of those corn chips he likes. The karma increases your chance of winning by at least a factor of four. Morrowind taught me being generous usually ends in having to murder the person who you're being charitable to, and stealing their ebony armor. 
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Jan 13, 2016 18:53
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