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Why are you buying the Sanders President nos when the Sanders nominee nos are 10c cheaper?
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Jan 13, 2016 21:51
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Oh man I'd bought and sold those the other day during a dip, but did not see the price had returned to easy money level yet, thank you.
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Jan 13, 2016 22:02
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Aliquid posted:A Jeb suicide would resolve his dropout market as correct, yes? No, Predictit has clarified in the past that dying does not constitute "dropping out".
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Jan 13, 2016 22:20
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So the Bern hype is causing a lot of the primary markets to go nuts but Arkansas in particular has been the funniest: https://www.predictit.org/Market/1723/Who-will-win-the-2016-Arkansas-Democratic-primary Free money if anyone wants it.
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Jan 13, 2016 22:25
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Necc0 posted:So the Bern hype is causing a lot of the primary markets to go nuts but Arkansas in particular has been the funniest: What are they banking on, people from Arkansas hate their former first lady?
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Jan 13, 2016 22:31
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Necc0 posted:Free money if anyone wants it. Just went back up to 88
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Jan 13, 2016 22:35
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Banking on turning 15 bucks into 30 if a republican nominee says "natural born" during the next debate Cmon trump make it happen baby
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Jan 13, 2016 22:35
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Gibberish posted:Banking on turning 15 bucks into 30 if a republican nominee says "natural born" during the next debate Goddammit it's already at 88c. If only I didn't have a job!!
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Jan 13, 2016 22:48
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Gibberish posted:Banking on turning 15 bucks into 30 if a republican nominee says "natural born" during the next debate Ive managed to get all of these markets wrong so far but God damnit it's so tempting. IM DAY DAY IRL posted:Just went back up to 88 Got in in the 70s 
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Jan 13, 2016 22:52
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Boy do I hope Hillary takes Iowa.
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Jan 13, 2016 22:58
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a cop posted:Boy do I hope Hillary takes Iowa. Necc0 posted:Got in in the 70s
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Jan 13, 2016 22:58
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I think we're at the scrutiny phase of Cruz's "rise - scrutiny - decline" cycle. Think about it, he's definitely the bottom of the barrel. We had: Bush, Fiorina, Carson, Rubio, and now Cruz. He's going to end up like the rest. I think it's becoming more and more obvious, barring some major fuckup at the debate that Trump is going to take Iowa.
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Jan 13, 2016 23:22
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pathetic little tramp posted:I think we're at the scrutiny phase of Cruz's "rise - scrutiny - decline" cycle. I'm still holding my Yes Iowa shares and even have some for him winning the entire nomination. Both have been hit in the last week. Cruz is a piece of dog turd, but he is way more of an intellectual heavy weight compared to the flavor of the month genre you are talking about like Bachman, Perry or Cain. Carson fits that mold of the infatuation, peaking, discovery and decline, but Cruz doesn't. Cruz is a known quantity, he rose slowly, he bides his time, he has a ground game, he's a hero of the evangelical wing of the party and you know that without directly saying his name but still getting the meaning across, every mega church is going to implore all their members to vote.
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Jan 13, 2016 23:34
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NO on PAUL.FBNDEBATE2 can be had for 92¢ if you’re into that. Payout isn’t great, but turnaround is good. Rand has been whining about a new poll that was released after the cut‐off but was conducted before. Fox is so far standing firm with (emphasis mine) “We announced the criteria in December and clearly stated the polling needed to be conducted and released by Monday, January 11th.” e: 96¢ now, maybe not worth it. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 00:48 on Jan 14, 2016 |
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Jan 14, 2016 00:42
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Cruz numbers collapsing for Iowa nom at the moment. Trump's secret announcement + the Cruz-Goldman scandal have sent the market into chaos.
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Jan 14, 2016 03:41
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I picked a great time to make my Cruz bets!
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Jan 14, 2016 04:21
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Platystemon posted:NO on PAUL.FBNDEBATE2 can be had for 92¢ if you’re into that. Payout isn’t great, but turnaround is good. I enjoy buying the opposite of "sure thing" markets like this. Sure, I'm probably out those shares, but who cares about dozens of pennies? Meanwhile I have a chance of making $bucks if something unexpected happens. I mean, this is politics, outrageously implausible things happen several times a year. Incidentally, $bucks is what I made flipping shares on this Paul will-he-or-won't-he market today 
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Jan 14, 2016 04:38
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Also, in the vein of the previous posts on bad decisions, I currently hold 1500 shares of Huckabee Yes in Iowa. Hopefully the Cruz panic helps me cut some loose.
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Jan 14, 2016 04:51
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T...thread-chan, someone is buying my Carson Iowa YES shares, some for .01, some for .02
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Jan 14, 2016 06:47
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Aliquid posted:T...thread-chan, someone is buying my Carson Iowa YES shares, some for .01, some for .02 Probably because Cruz is melting down and people are looking for hedges. Speaking of which, managed to sell several hundred Cruz Noes around 55-58c this evening, buying back in at 42c.
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Jan 14, 2016 09:01
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Still some Rand Noes left on the market for debate appearance tomorrow. Unless he parachutes onto stage halfway through it's not happening.
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Jan 14, 2016 09:05
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Vox Nihili posted:Also, in the vein of the previous posts on bad decisions, I currently hold 1500 shares of Huckabee Yes in Iowa. Hopefully the Cruz panic helps me cut some loose. This, plus Carson and Santorum. It made sense at one point 
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Jan 14, 2016 15:02
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This thread helped me purge every last one of my Carson YES shameshares. Someone is looking out for us.
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Jan 14, 2016 15:21
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There's a congressional job approval vote closing out tomorrow. Shares of yes they will have at least 13.5% approval are around 40 cents and based on the recent polling I'd put the yes odds at least at 50% Commie NedFlanders has issued a correction as of 18:05 on Jan 14, 2016 |
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Jan 14, 2016 17:54
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I think a good bet is sanders for most speaking time during this weekends debate. Latest price is at 30 cents and in previous debates Clinton has had the most speaking time but with his latest rise in the polls I can see more questions fielded his way, also if they keep the "you may respond to anything directed at you" rule, I imagine Clinton is going to be far more in the attack this time, giving Sanders more chances to eat up response time. During the last debate Clinton had about 4 minutes of extra speaking time so that's like just a couple questions difference given Sanders' penchant for long form answers
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Jan 14, 2016 18:03
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Since a lot of these are based on polling results, is there any way to find out if certain polling organizations are planning to conduct or release s poll at a certain time? Like if I expect some poll numbers to change soon, but the deadline on predictit is coming up, is there a way to see if quinnipiac or abc or ppp currently conducting a poll or scheduled to release one before the predictit deadline? There are some really low offers, around 3 cents, on public opinion which is basically right on the fence, it would only take one or two polls or push the average over and I think the debates will influence that I just don't know if anyone is gonna release the polling data in time to make it worth buying some shares
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Jan 14, 2016 18:29
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Don't bet on polls
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Jan 14, 2016 18:41
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I bought this 2 days ago at .41 wtf 
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Jan 14, 2016 18:43
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Those gallup markets are death traps. They have their own weird following of people who pay for premium subscriptions to get results early and similar oddness.
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Jan 14, 2016 18:54
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Gibberish posted:I bought this 2 days ago at .41 lol my friend bought into this when they were down at $.11 Nonetheless- ~*don't bet on polls*~
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Jan 14, 2016 18:55
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Vox Nihili posted:Those gallup markets are death traps. They have their own weird following of people who pay for premium subscriptions to get results early and similar oddness.
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Jan 14, 2016 19:48
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I get why you shouldn't but nonetheless I believe I have an intimate, almost magical relationship with the national zeitgeist and I only place really small bets on poll results I just love seeing how these numbers jump all over the place during and right after any debate or speech or whatever. Poll respondents are s fickle bunch but I find them predictable nonetheless. Just like the stock market I prefer high volatility based on the kneejerk reactions of the population rather than long term boring 8% gains I like to live dangerously 
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Jan 14, 2016 19:51
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And they said studying psychology was worthless if I Wasn't gonna do research 
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Jan 14, 2016 19:53
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Prediction markets are way more fun than gambling
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Jan 14, 2016 20:17
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Gibberish posted:Prediction markets are way more fun than gambling I don't know- I wouldn't want to play a hand of blackjack if I didn't find out if I had won until six months later especially if the dealer told me "well there's a near-zero chance that you will lose but still we won't pay you until we're absolutely sure"
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Jan 14, 2016 20:28
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Honestly there's no way I'd play anything more than like 1 or 2 weeks out. Most of the stuff I bet on are the "closing" soon things, for just a few bucks. Still, feels good knowing I'm right about ~the way the world is~
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Jan 14, 2016 20:31
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I've got 95 cents left over after various purchases; any long gamble that's not entirely fruitless I can throw that into?
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Jan 14, 2016 22:28
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Garrand posted:I've got 95 cents left over after various purchases; any long gamble that's not entirely fruitless I can throw that into? Either Ryan or Romney wins the nomination. They would be likely options if Trump goes into the convention with the most delegates but not a majority and will likely trade up some if this looks like a possibility
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Jan 14, 2016 23:06
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Just made serious money on my Cruz 'No' shares in the Republican Nomination market after the whole NYT article on the Goldman Sachs loan. Half tempted to sell them before the Iowa caucus. God this site is my jam.
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Jan 14, 2016 23:13
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BedBuglet posted:Just made serious money on my Cruz 'No' shares in the Republican Nomination market after the whole NYT article on the Goldman Sachs loan. Half tempted to sell them before the Iowa caucus. God this site is my jam. I'm holding out for it to be above 50. I'm hoping the polls start defining the Cruz decline more seriously and maybe I can cash out at 80, but Cruz NO was definitely a good buy.I might even hold out until the caucus I'm so sure.
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Jan 14, 2016 23:20
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