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Pawn 17 posted:p sure they go to great lengths to ensure all balls are identical and have the same chance of being picked. e.g. https://www.lotterypost.com/blogentry/11305 Is it possible to build a computer capable of calculating the future trajectories of every atom in the universe and then using it to predict Powerball numbers? If so, the people who have computers like that wield an unfair advantage over the rest of us.
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Jan 13, 2016 21:00
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Applewhite posted:Is it possible to build a computer capable of calculating the future trajectories of every atom in the universe and then using it to predict Powerball numbers? "I am now telling the computer exactly what it can do with a lifetime supply of chocolate!"
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Jan 13, 2016 21:01
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Applewhite posted:Is it possible to build a computer capable of calculating the future trajectories of every atom in the universe and then using it to predict Powerball numbers? True, and they could afford to build time machines to go back and win every lotto in history!
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Jan 13, 2016 21:01
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To simplify the question a bit, instead of dealing with partial permutation combinations (pb + 5 combo), imagine if to win the jackpot you had to pick the correct number 1 - 270000000. Let's make an assumption and say 70% of humans pick a number between 1-135000000, and the other 30% pick a number 135000001-270000000. While a true RNG will pick 1-135000000 50% of the time, and 135000001-270000000 the other 50% of the time. It would be analogous to say a range of 1-2 (Heads/Tails), with humans picking heads 70% of the time and tails 30% of the time while the RNG Drawer picks each 50% of the time. Since tales is being neglected, with a (human vs. a true RNG competitor) vs true RNG drawer, would the true RNG competitor match more frequently? Or does it not matter since even if the human picked heads 100% of the time, they would win 50% of the time? I think I just answered my own question and was fallaciously believing a true RNG would have the advantage over pseudo-RNG in matching a true RNG.
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Jan 13, 2016 21:02
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Hector Beerlioz posted:"I am now telling the computer exactly what it can do with a lifetime supply of chocolate!" 
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Jan 13, 2016 21:02
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Meta Ridley posted:Can any statistics pros answer a question? As appealing as it sounds, wasting brain cycles trying to cheat at the lottery is 100% pointless. The only way to win is to pray to satan/aliens to send you the numbers.
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Jan 13, 2016 21:04
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soy posted:As appealing as it sounds, wasting brain cycles trying to cheat at the lottery is 100% pointless. http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/11/news/powerball-jackpot-win-guarantee/
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Jan 13, 2016 21:05
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Pawn 17 posted:True, and they could afford to build time machines to go back and win every lotto in history! No wonder the rich keep getting richer!
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Jan 13, 2016 21:06
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Meta Ridley posted:To simplify the question a bit, instead of dealing with partial permutation combinations (pb + 5 combo), imagine if to win the jackpot you had to pick the correct number 1 - 270000000. I was about to explain what you were missing but it seems like you got it anyways. It doesn't matter whether you pick heads or tails, given an infinite number of flips you should be right about 50% of the time. You could always pick heads, always pick tales, alternate, follow some sort of sequence, it doesn't matter you should always average out to 50% win. Now in the case of the powerball two or more people winning the grand prize means splitting it, so if humans do typically pick lower numbers than it would change the expected value of your ticket to pick in a range that statistically had less players as it would mean you had a better chance of keeping the prize to yourself should you actually win.
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Jan 13, 2016 21:07
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lol at all the soccer mom's filling out the long form for the first time because the clerk wants them outta the line and/or for them to give up on their lottery quest.
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Jan 13, 2016 21:07
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2585157/You-CAN-predict-lottery-numbers-Brazilian-mathematician-claims.html Such a deep and pointless rabbit hole, I'm pretty sure this guy is just trying to get people to sign up for his dumb site.
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Jan 13, 2016 21:13
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thats a pro website also, i too have a method for generating limitless amounts of wealth, and I want to share it... with YOU!
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Jan 13, 2016 21:22
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checked my lotto ticket for historic powerball drawings. my numbers have never won more than $7. the luck is being saved up for tonight
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Jan 13, 2016 23:25
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I went to go get some tickets for tonight and near the store that sells tickets there are a couple banks and probably around 10 ATMs total within a block of the lotto place. I didn't check all of them, but at least 4 of the ATMs were out of money. 
Sophy Wackles fucked around with this message at 23:32 on Jan 13, 2016 |
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Jan 13, 2016 23:27
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Jan 13, 2016 23:35
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Only need to get lucky once!
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Jan 13, 2016 23:38
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Aussie here, i bought 2 tickets online from Australia. Thanks for all those sweet sweet US bux that are comin my way :-D
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Jan 13, 2016 23:47
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Look at that return on investment!
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Jan 13, 2016 23:57
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Automatic Retard posted:Aussie here, i bought 2 tickets online from Australia. You got scammed... I mean more so than the rest of us.
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Jan 13, 2016 23:57
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Kuato posted:I'll pay off all SA users student loan debts when I win. Or I might not. We shall see. If you won this current POWERBALL jackpot 1,326 times you could pay off all US student loan debt.  Accretionist posted:I'm gonna self-isolate in a palatial 45th floor condo and hire a personal assistant to be a $40,000/year take-out fetcher. Also, make them wear google glass and livestream 24/7 to ensure they don't try to poison/backstab you. Applewhite posted:Does the weight and distribution of the ink on the air-blown ping pong balls affect their statistical likelihood of being picked? Probably but they use different balls and different machines randomly so it'd be something changing all the time. The balls have to be within a certain gram amount but they're not perfectly IDENTICAL of course. It's the same thing with casino dice being machined to be very symmetrical and geometrical. Compare that with average dice in a board game that've been molded and then put in a tumbler and then polished. They will definitely be biased to land on certain numbers and also bounce around a lot more.
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Jan 13, 2016 23:58
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Mozi posted:realtalk i'd buy a few thousand acres of forest and hire some forestry guys and animal guys to just make it really nice and full of happy animals. then i'd hang around in my house watching tv all day probs. Same only foresty girls, and I'd make them dress up like a lady-lumberjack and like, Pocahontas, and then have sex with me and each other
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Jan 13, 2016 23:58
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Nonsense posted:lol at all the soccer mom's filling out the long form for the first time because the clerk wants them outta the line and/or for them to give up on their lottery quest. I didn't know those long lottery forms still exist
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Jan 13, 2016 23:58
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I saw a dude drop 300 dollars on lotto tickets today at the 7-11
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Jan 13, 2016 23:58
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WeLandedOnTheMoon! posted:I saw a dude drop 300 dollars on lotto tickets today at the 7-11 and now his chances of winning are virtually unchanged. e- I was trying to do this math but I'm retarded soy fucked around with this message at 00:05 on Jan 14, 2016 |
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Jan 14, 2016 00:02
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first thing ill do with my winnings is post on /r/financialadvice
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Jan 14, 2016 00:05
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Meta Ridley posted:Let's make an assumption and say 70% of humans pick a number between 1-135000000, and the other 30% pick a number 135000001-270000000. While a true RNG will pick 1-135000000 50% of the time, and 135000001-270000000 the other 50% of the time. A true RNG is NOT going to pick one 50.000000% of the time and other other 50.000000% of the time. Even a conventional coin flip is not a 50/50 affair as humans are biased in the way they flip coins (too much spinning and not enough height). A typical coin will land on whatever it started more ~51% of the time. 1% isn't much but 1% is HUGE compared to some of these lottery probabilities. Many coins with damage will be heavily biased too. Meta Ridley posted:It would be analogous to say a range of 1-2 (Heads/Tails), with humans picking heads 70% of the time and tails 30% of the time while the RNG Drawer picks each 50% of the time. Since tales is being neglected, with a (human vs. a true RNG competitor) vs true RNG drawer, would the true RNG competitor match more frequently? It makes sense to pick less popular numbers. Another issue with all these stat things is that we can't be 100% sure odd stuff isn't still continuing to happen in these systems. It's been proven that lotteries have been tampered with in the past.
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Jan 14, 2016 00:06
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T - five hours to POWERBALL launch.boom boom boom posted:That's meaningless unless we know what percentage of all tickets sold are quickpicks. I read in an article recently that 95% of tickets are QP and they win ~70% of the time. And 5% are human chosen and win ~30% of the time. But who knows what those numbers are based on. There are a ton of stats that'd be helpful to know but AFAIK the lottery people aren't going to make them public. WeLandedOnTheMoon! posted:I saw a dude drop 300 dollars on lotto tickets today at the 7-11 I keep hearing these stories. I have a feeling some of these are buying for a group. soy posted:and now his chances of winning are virtually unchanged. 1 in 1,948,009 shot of the big one. If a big pool wins the million dollars isn't not even that much $$$.
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Jan 14, 2016 00:12
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Nice! I ran it for around 48,000 years and got 10k 9 times, but nothing bigger. Something like $8 million in the hole at that point. Forever poor 
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Jan 14, 2016 00:13
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My chances of winning the powerball tonight will be 0. As that is the number of tickets I have purchased.
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Jan 14, 2016 00:14
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If the past winners on the Powerball are any indication you have to be at least 50 years old to win this thing so sorry goons but most of us are disqualified
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Jan 14, 2016 00:16
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Germstore posted:You got scammed... I mean more so than the rest of us. DOH. How so? And if I win it I'll still be a billionaire in Aus dollars, whereas you guy only get 880mill after tax 
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Jan 14, 2016 00:26
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Ginette Reno posted:If the past winners on the Powerball are any indication you have to be at least 50 years old to win this thing so sorry goons but most of us are disqualified What about that illiterate black guy who gave a way a lot of money and then his girlfriend murdered him?
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Jan 14, 2016 00:28
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Jan 14, 2016 00:30
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I'm surprised it's not 1.6 Billion yet. It hit 1.4 two days ago and 1.5 yesterday
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Jan 14, 2016 00:30
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Automatic Retard posted:DOH. How so? There's no legit way to buy lotto tickets outside the states that participate in powerball.
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Jan 14, 2016 00:31
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Zogo posted:1 in 1,948,009 shot of the big one. If a big pool wins the million dollars isn't not even that much $$$. uhh your odds are nowhere close to that with 100 tickets in powerball a single ticket is 1 in 292,000,000 so 100 tickets would be 1 in 291,999,901 or something so that's a 0.00003390412109284395% improvement.. for $198 extra over one ticket.
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Jan 14, 2016 00:32
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soy posted:uhh your odds are nowhere close to that with 100 tickets in powerball I CAN'T LOSE!
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Jan 14, 2016 00:32
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honestly if I won I'd be a little worried about other unbelievably improbable poo poo happening to me like randomly waking up on mars in some alien rape house or growing dicks out of my eyeballs (that last one might own)
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Jan 14, 2016 00:36
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Look at the size of that jack off crystal, my goodness!
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Jan 14, 2016 00:37
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As a white male with a professional job that already is sue prone if I won I'd literally have to quit working. Which in my opinion would honestly kind of suck. Has a lawyer/Doctor/nurse ever won this? I wonder how many people immediately sued them just to settle out of court.
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Jan 14, 2016 00:39
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